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Smith's Size - Over Emphasised?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Apr 1, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    A lot of talk about Devonta Smith weighing in at 170 - and slim with it. There's an understandable fear that at the pro-level he'll be susceptible to injury.



    Just how valid is that notion, though?

    Is there a demonstrable link between height/weight and league injury history?
    And can we learn anything helpful about Smith in particular to get a sense of how he fares against bigger defenders, his fight, strength and durability?

    It's important because, in general, the consensus seems to be that Smith is the best WR in the draft and the only really knock against him is his weight. If he weighed 200lbs, say, maybe even 185, 190, he might well be the clear WR1.






    I don't have all those answers myself, but perhaps we can discuss it and share whatever information we might have on this issue?
     
  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    In terms of Smith himself, he certainly doesn't seem to lack strength despite being light for his height:



    Other insights:


    "Smith would be the second-lightest receiver taken in the first round of the draft since 1999; the Baltimore Ravens selected Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, who weighed 166 pounds, with the 25th overall pick in the 2019 draft. But there is some precedent: Smith has been compared to Hall of Fame Indianapolis Colts receiver Marvin Harrison by several draft analysts, including ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Mike Tannenbaum. Harrison weighed in at 181 pounds at his combine and played in the 170s.

    Other successful receivers who weighed in under 175 pounds also include DeSean Jackson (169 pounds) and Isaac Bruce (173 pounds). Chad Johnson also said on Twitter that he played at 170 pounds while noting Smith was better than him in college."



    "Since the turn of the century, only one receiver weighing fewer than 180 pounds was drafted in the first round. That was Ted Ginn in 2007.

    Mike Tanier wrote about the spotty track record of sub-180 receivers who have been drafted over the last two decades for Fansided and found that almost all of them topped out as useful role players rather than stars. DeSean Jackson was the best out of the bunch, and while he was more than a role player, he’s had a hard time staying healthy.

    Tanier makes a compelling point, for sure. The track record is concerning, but I don’t know if any of the players on that list are comparable to what we think of Smith as a prospect. Yes, 95% of the skinny receivers drafted over the last 20 years did not become star players; but, outside of Ginn, none of those players were really expected to develop into stars in the first place. At least based on where they were drafted."



    "Using Chase Stuart’s draft value chart, I compared that group of players’ expected Approximate Value through the first five years of their careers to their actual AV through the first five years and found that only seven out of the 22 failed toexceed expectations based on draft position...

    ...Based on those results, an argument can be made the league undervalues lighter receivers. But, really, the sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions. And I just don’t know how useful any of this is for a prospect as unique as Smith, who will almost certainly join Ginn as the second sub-180 receiver taken in the first round in the past 20 years.

    But even a Smith-Ginn comparison is a bit of a reach. Ginn was a top-10 pick, but that was seen as a stretch due to his lack of polish as a receiver. This isn’t hindsight, either. Directly after the draft, an anonymous scout wrote this for ESPN:

    “While he has excellent speed, he ran just three routes at Ohio State, so he has a tremendous amount of work to do in that area.”

    There are no such concerns with Smith, who is an elite route-runner with a strong pair of hands that allowed him to finish tied for fifth in the class in contested catches, per Pro Football Focus. He’s seen as an all-around receiver who can win in just about any way an offense could ask of him. The film doesn’t show a player with play strength issues, either. He has no problem working against press coverage or worthing through contact down the field...

    ...I guess another concern would be durability. Smith is a hard-nosed ball carrier who will take on tacklers in the open field and that might be unsustainable at the next level. But he didn’t miss any time playing in the SEC, which is probably the closest approximation to the NFL you’ll find. And, other than Jackson, injuries weren’t really an issue for players on that list above.

    I don’t think it’s hyperbole to call Smith a truly unique prospect. That doesn’t mean he’ll turn out to be an exception to the rule. But we can say that his scouting report already is an exception and should probably be viewed through a different lens."

    (Rest of the article worth reading).
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2021
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  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Last edited: Apr 1, 2021
  5. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    It wouldn't be as big of an issue for me if we didn't already have starting WR's made of glass. And honestly, I'm surprised he didnt run a 40 yesterday. If he had put up a crazy number, this discussion would have ended.

    Having said that, I'm still in the camp of Pitts/Chase > Sewell > Smith/Waddle.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    His size is over-emphasized because there's four or five pure studs in this draft and you have to nit-pick to find the best of the bunch. I think he'll be a great play-maker in the NFL.

    Heck, do we still think size is a major issue for Grant? Smith is 10x the receiver Grant is, plus a few inches taller and the same weight.
     
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  7. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    This is a really solid question. I just got done scouting him, and I happened to be watching an interview with Chris Simms where he hits the nail on the head. He was asked about his size, and he said, "Show me one instance on the tape where he was hurt by his size." Honestly, he was right. I never once thought, "If he was bigger and stronger, he catches that pass." Honestly, I even thought that he was a solid and active blocker.

    That being said, if you said, "Chase or Smith" to me, I wouldn't even hesitate - Chase. If you pressed me as to my reason, I would tell you to just look at the two.

    Drafting as early as we are, I think it would be smart to take the physical specimen.

    I really do think that Smith is gonna pan out and be a solid player. That being said, I would not be shocked if his size finally caught up to him.

    I know I feel like I am betting heads and tails, but I do acknowledge that it is within the realm of possibility that I wrong here.
     
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  8. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I love this kid. It seems like he's taking attention away from Waddle, who I like as much. Deepest group of top tier receivers that I can recall. Thanks to that, somebody really good at another position is going to drop to us at #18 AND #36.
     
  9. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Mostly concerned with him being pressed on the line. Can he beat it consistently. Will be wear down in having to do so for an NFL season.

    He can definitely fall to 18, same with Waddle.
     
  10. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    I‘ll think he‘ll be fine and he wasn’t injured in college (unless you count the thing in the last game), just not at pick #6 imo. Maybe in a trade down if Pitts and Chase are gone when we pick.
     
  11. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Latest McShay mock has them taking him at #6.
     
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    While he doesn't have a 100% success rate (no wide receiver does) he does have the skills to beat the press more often than not and the speed with the route running ability to make teams not want to press him too much.

    I don't think he will fall to 18.

    I also don't think Waddle will either.
     
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  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Yes...over-emphasized...IMO.

    Kid is smooth as silk, glue-hands, shifty as hell and very fast. His balance and agility are freaking insane.
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I also don't think he falls to 18. It'll either have to be 6 or else move up from 18.
     
  15. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Yeah, I agree. I think he goes between 9-12.
     
  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Overemphasized in general, yes. As a top 6 pick? No.

    Guys picked that high are physical specimens. Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. Even some of the "failed" guys like Corey Davis were still that profile.

    When you pick at 6, WR is already a less optimal position, then toss in size and it's just a tough call.

    Id be excited and hopeful, but man both he and Waddle feel like big reaches this high.
     
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I watched some more film on my lunch break today and the consistent theme I kept hearing on Smith is how intelligent he is in destroying coverage on the fly. If he sees the safety going one way or the other, he cuts in behind them so he's wide open in space. Or if the safety rotates to the far side of the field, he's sprinting for the end zone wide open on the bomb. Just a really smart kid that sees the field better than most.

    I think he's going to be incredible and as I've said multiple times, he's clearly the most talented of the four. If you're not worried about his weight then he should be your choice at #6...I just can't get past that personally. In any other draft I'd be all-in on him at that spot, but in any other draft there's not Chase and Pitts with Waddle as one heck of a backup plan as well.
     
  18. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    Every time I start to worry about his size, I think back to what he did to Ohio State’s defense in the championship game. Had he not run into a defender finger first, he could have had 20 catches - he was completely uncoverable. Waddle was playing, but was very limited coming off the injury (props to him for even playing); OSU just couldn’t do anything to slow him down.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I think this is one of the reason why the draft success rate is so low with teams. Instead of drafting great football players they look for players who look like great football players.

    Each time someone writes, "But look at what players you can get in the 3rd round or later in the draft," I don't see that as draft victories. I see those as failures because they should have been drafted higher.

    Getting Stephon Diggs in the 5th round was a bad analysis because he should have gone in the first or second at the lowest.

    IMO, Smith looks like a potential Marvin Harrison, a player I would gladly take with the 6th pick in the draft even though he doesn't fit the profile.

    In fact, each time I watch Alabama highlights in the last two years, Smith always stands out to me as the best wide receiver on the team.
     
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  20. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    He is the best route runner in the draft and creates separation so easily it's scary. Plenty of speed. The only question is his weight but Chad Johnson claims he played in the 170 - 180 range so I think it is maybe more of a concern than it should be. In my opinion he is the best receiver in the draft, yes better than Chase.

    The truth is I want Smith over any one else at 6. I would be happy with Chase or Pitts as well. I would be ticked if we drafted Sewell after loading up on lineman last year especially since those guys had no OTA's, no Rookie Camp, no Training Camp other than a couple weeks prior to the season start. I would prefer to hold the line and get these guys the offseason they should have had last year. Coach them up, get them in the weight room. If they don't produce this year draft what you need next year. This is coming from a guy that begged and pleaded to really address the line for literally the last 5 years!

    We have to get some real playmakers on the offense. Outside of a couple guys we have no real threats anywhere and none of them generate much separation if any.
     
  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Smith is my second choice after Pitts.

    I like having a player whose elite at hard work.
     
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  22. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    How far he can drop will depend on how many QBs go in the top 8 and the love of the edge rushers after their pro days measurements come in. I'm hoping all the way to #18
     
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  23. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Absolute cheat code in college last year.

    Who knows he may be the front offices guy all along.

    He is the only top prospect in the 6 range that everyone knows for a fact will be there when we pick. Meaning it was safe to trade back and know you could absolutely get him.

    Can’t say the same for Chase/Sewell/Pitts.
     
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  24. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’d take any of those 3 over Smith. Slowly getting my head wrapped around the idea that Chase won’t be there when we pick.
     
  25. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  26. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Considering how often our receivers "break", Smith breaking due to his size would allow him to slot right in.

    Personally not worried about Smith's size. I just think other teams may be and therefore he drops 5-10 slots.
     

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