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Contender for Most Significant Draft Pick? - Center.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Apr 12, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Before I start, let me just take a moment's silence for the previous version of this post that took me a decent amount of time to write and edit, and which suffered an untimely death via an accidental press of the back button. Gone forever, I missed it, and I suspect this replacement post just won't be the same.

    -----------------------------------------

    Right, now that's out of my system, here's my contention - we've talked about QB's, WR's, RB's, TE's and some of the players this year could be really, really good. If one of those picks works out for us then they could be transformational for the offense. However, there's one position that might prove even more pivotal this year.

    The one thing all those players have in common is that they are all, directly or indirectly, dependent upon the offensive line. We've seen it before, with the Dolphins as well as other teams. Great players elsewhere fail to perform when arriving in different circumstances and/or find great success when they head out somewhere else.

    We know that for the offensive line elite individual talent is less important than elite performance as a unit. Experience and consistency might prove more beneficial for the OL than any other unit, and following the tear down process Miami's current OL (along with the whole team) is very young.

    In 2020 we had 6 major players. 4 of them were rookies:

    LT - Austin Jackson
    RG - Solomon Kindley
    RT/LT - Jesse Davis
    RT - Robert Hunt (Replacing Davis when he replaced the injured Jackson at LT)

    The other two veterans were:
    C - Ted Karras
    LG - Ereck Flowers

    Overall, in 2020, the play was better than some of us expected and there's reason for hope that Miami's OL might turn out to be just what we need - a group whose performance is greater than the sum of their parts.

    However, although better than expected, the OL still wasn't what we need it to be, which means that, hope aside, the reality is that we need to see improved play from them, and that raises an important question.

    Grier's offseason so far has been praised on multiple fronts, and rightly so, but if there's a dark spot this year it might be the Center position. Veteran Karras, who wasn't horrible, left, and as far as it seems to those of us outside the Dolphins, Grier wasn't able to bring in his man as a replacement. We eventually picked up Matt Skura. (I could be wrong here, and Skura was Grier's guy all along, but it didn't seem like it).

    Skura is a talented prospect who has underperformed. If all goes well and he starts to match his potential this could be a huge win for us. However, the Dolphins brought him in on a one year contract, which would seem to indicate that they aren't certain he's the right solution to hold down the middle.

    Let's be clear here. The Center position is fundamental on the line. LT's get the glory and the money, but if the centre really holds things together. He needs to have a clue what's going on everywhere along the line, and aside for various traits of strength and size, he needs to be reliable. You don't want a sub-standard center.

    All of this means that right now we've got four rookies entering their second season, one veteran entering his sophomore year with the Dolphins, and one new veteran center. We've also got a new OL coach due to the moves at the OC position. That's a lot of learning and what we're hoping is that all of those rookies develop and improve individually and together, and the veterans remain, at least, stable, along with the new center fitting right in. If we don't get that, then we might still be struggling on the OL.

    If things don't work out, then all other parts of our offense could begin to stall, and as much as we can get excited about shiny new weapons, if the offense stalls, no one is going to be happy, and we might be talking about wasted years, again. And with the one year contracts we've been seeing, things could also get expensive soon.

    Obviously, we don't want any of that. So, that brings me, finally, to my main point. We know that Grier and Flores can build a defense. We've seen them do it. Long may it continue! The question now is, can they build an offense? For all the other picks made during the 2021 draft it might be a solid pick at center that is the most significant move of the year. Finding a stud center in the second, or even third or fourth rounds, could mean that we have a young, but talented OL, that's cheap, learning together, and gives us stability for years. Missing on this pick, or failing to address it, means we're dependent on Skura, or his backup Deiter, working out - and then also being able to retain them within the cap next year and onwards.

    If centre ends up a weakness for the Dolphins line, we might all be frustrated this year.

    Here's to hoping that Grier knows what he's doing along the OL and he builds us a winner.

    I for one will be watching what happens to our OL, especially C, with interest.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2021
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    With this administration, I'm less worried about the line than I have been in decades, simply because of what they look for in talent. I think line is one of those positions that sort of get misguided in the draft- you start by finding a tough kid that's agile and can lay down some blocks. But then the due diligence kicks in and you start looking for other traits...intelligence, leadership, and dozens of other intangibles that don't necessarily translate to lining up and knocking someone over. Before you know it, things like aggression and toughness just don't get prioritized when they're truly the only things that matter.

    Over these past two seasons, we've prioritized the right things up and down that offensive line- we've drafted some true junkyard dogs. And you can see on film that our line is playing together at a pretty high level, certainly not perfect by any means, but they're finally a cohesive unit that's firing off the ball and being physical. Technique only gets you so far at top levels and I think Grier understands that.

    I do think we need to draft a center but at the same time, I'm not sure we have to look for a starter this season.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think a better OL solves our running game problems and of course helps Tua shine. I expect improved play from our rookies. Jackson was basically one year removed from donating bone marrow to his sister and is very young. I think it's reasonable to expect major strides out of all 3 of our rookies from year 1 to year 2.

    I agree about the C position. Would love to get Humphrey or Meinerz in round 3.
     
  4. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Great write up.
    I agree C can be underrated. Definitely helps when you have a cerebral guy at centre who can help the QB calling blocking schemes too.

    I view Skura as more a lotto ticket. I guess we’ll find out at the draft how much stock the brass is actually putting in Skura.
     
    Irishman and Galant like this.
  5. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    I know many here are hoping we draft Creed Humphrey, which I would also be on board with. But, I also really like mountain man Quinn Meinerz.
     
  6. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts EXACTLY.

    We may be ready to start with who we have in place on the OL, but if we intend to grow and improve as a team, we need to select a center from this draft and continue to draft centers until we get one who can establish himself with the team. The center must be smart, solid and reliable year after year.

    This is the responsible way to build an offense, start with the OL; and the OL starts at the center position.

    Consider this; a center is involved in every offensive play except for long snaps (usually kicking). A receiver, any kind of receiver, is involved (usually) with passing plays which occur about 50% of the time. There are typically 3 or more receivers a play. With an even distribution of targets, this means that any single receiver would get 1/3 of the balls. One third of 50% is ~17% (16.667%). If the center is involved handling the ball almost 100% of the time and a receiver can be expected to handle the ball ~17% of the time, which player has the more important job? It looks like the center is 6 times as important as a receiver.

    This is probably why teams carry around 6 or more receivers. - LOL
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  7. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Kyle C. from the Locked on Phins podcast had a really interesting take this morning - looking at possible OL prospects for the Dolphins.
    He has an observation on what the Dolphins' 'type' is for their OL.

    It's worth a listen to the whole thing where he breaks down what he believes he has seen as a 'type' for OL players, and then he goes over prospects that meet those standards - show here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1UovJb7rUs6196uOCtAzls

    In summary, the Dolphins, under Grier/Flores, have almost exclusively brought in dense/heavy OL with powerful lower bodies - more specifically, minimum 310lbs and minimum 70th percentile for broad jump.

    He contends that this is what the Dolphins sought so far, and may be indicative of where they're going - although it's obviously not fool proof. Tape overrules stats. But it's worth at least considering.

    Example, Creed Humphreys - doesn't meet these thresholds (explosive enough but under-sized based on this pattern) - but might still be someone of interest.

    Prospects listed, going down the list starting with most explosive jump numbers:
    Alex Leatherwood - T/G - 312lbs 98th percentile jump - insane numbers. Powerful. Nasty demeanour. Comfortable either side of the line - played T and G. Likely day 2 pick. #36 reasonable. #50 sweet spot.

    Samuel Cosmey - 314lbs 98th percentile jump - again, off the charts athleticism. Tackle. Rough around the edges. Could go first round because of tools. Doesn't think Dolphins will be interested because it would be another high pick on a developmental tackle.

    Trey Smith - G - 321lbs 92nd percentile jump. Some medical stuff - blood clot issues in the past. "Doesn't play as dynamic as he tested." But he's a mauler. Great in short spaces. Maybe some untapped potential due to missed time and having to switch positions. Day 3 pick maybe. Would the Dolphins draft him too high at #81 or trade back somewhere to get a 4th round pick? That would be the question for the Dolphins.

    Quinn Meinerz - IOL - 320lbs 90th percentile jump. Played on Dolphins roster at Senior Bowl. Coached at G and C during that week. Comes from the same school as Eric Studesville. This has been a year of limited exposure to players. Meets the traits the Dolphins look for. Div.3 player - so very likely an untouched ceiling and lots of room for development. Super nasty on tape. "Where do we write this in Sharpie?" If someone doesn't jump the Dolphins, this looks like a big fit for the Dolphins around #81 if they don't go OL earlier in the draft.

    Walker Little - T - 313lbs 90th percentile jump - Don't think he can play tackle in the NFL. Lots of injuries in the past. Early on he was considered a possible 1st round talent but he's been injured a lot since. "Same boat as Trey Smith" but injury issues. He's missed a lot of time. But if he slides and you've got no other options, he might be a low cost option. But not higher than #100.

    Penei Sewell - LT - 331lbs 84th percentile jump - Phenomenal athletic tools. Won a lot purely on that athleticism. Lots of room for growth in technique - if he can grow a lot then he's a truly scary proposition. The problem is that you have to take him with your top pick. For the Dolphins, what does that mean? He would be a LT (didn't take a single college snap at any other position) so who moves? Robert Hunt has flexibility but Jackson not. Too rich at the top pick compared with value available with pass catchers in the draft. Maybe if the draft falls that somehow you trade back a bit and all 4 pass catchers go, then yes, grab Sewell, but otherwise, you've already got too many premium assets that you need to develop and see what you've got.

    Tevin Jenkis - OT - 317lbs 72nd percentile jump. Naturally a RT. Perceived to have inside/outside flexibility. Going to have to get him at #18 if you want him. "Him and Robert Hunt next to each other would be the meanest buddy cop duo in the history of the NFL, or at least the Miami Dolphins. These are two mean dudes in the run game." "Absolute treat to watch drive guys off the ball". "Mauler mentality". Question is, is he your best choice at #18? Depending on how the draft falls he could end up BPA at 18. Otherwise, it might be frustrating to see another high pick invested in the OL. But at the end of the day he's a phenomenal football player. So if it falls that way, then do it.

    NOTABLE name who missed the list because he couldn't test (like Solomon Kindley and Robert Hunt) - Landon Dickerson - C - 333lbs - Knee injury. Looks like he's bouncing back. But lots of injury history. "How could you possibly draft him knowing his injury history?" Tough call. Would understand why the Dolphins would or wouldn't. But the Dolphins did take Tua despite a potentially career ending injury, so they're not necessarily risk averse. Landon is a risk. But the reward would be phenomenal if it works out. If he's healthy he would likely meet the thresholds the Dolphins are seeking.

    Two others who just missed the thresholds:

    Creed Humphrey - 302lbs - Center has more flexibility to take liberties with weight.

    Elijah Vera-Tucker - 308lbs 77th percentile - not likely beyond the 1st round. (Deiter was 309lbs)

    Ben Cleveland - RG - 343lbs 56th percentile - more like Kindley. Lot of weight but not sloppy, "built like the Mountain from Game of Thrones".


    Lots of food for thought there.
     
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  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Last edited: Apr 14, 2021
  9. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Meinerz is a really intriguing guy in the late second through third round, but asking a D2 center to line up and be a day 1 starter is a really really big ask.

    Creed is the pick if you want a plug and play guy imo, but he will go pretty early most likely.
     
  10. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    This is the guy I'd really like to see in aqua and white. And I'd take him at 36 or he might not be there at 50

     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2021
  11. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    The only caveat to the size thing for Humphrey is that he was a dominant wrestler. Wrestlers are masters of leverage and I'd take a guy who is 8lbs light and a great wrestler over someone who is 310lbs+ and never wrestled.
     

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