Odds to win Super Bowl 56: +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000) Odds to win AFC: +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600) Odds to win AFC East: +325 (bet $100 to win $325) Win total: 9 (Over: -150 | Under: +125) Will the Dolphins make the playoffs? Yes: +125 | No: -150 In other words, this particular betting site thinks we'll win right around 9 games and miss the playoffs. The 3.25:1 odds of winning the AFC East don't seem too bad though- I'm guessing that makes us the 2nd favorites behind Buffalo. So what are your "way too early" bets? Mine would be over 9 and making the playoffs.
I think Over 9 is a good bet because it's a wash if it's 9, meaning you only lose if we win 8 or less. From a betting standpoint I wouldn't bet on any of the others unless you don't mind playing odds over longer periods in which case winning the AFC East actually looks like a decent bet (you only need to win 1 in 4 similar bets to make a profit). Playoffs is tricky so I'd stay away.
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When I was a young guy back in the 90s, making the playoffs at 9-7 seemed really reasonable. The Dolphins earned the Wildcard in 1995, 1997 and 1999 with that record, and would have gotten in at 9-7 in 1991 had they been able to win one of their last two games. But really, those are the only times in franchise history where 9 was enough. Outside of the 90s, every time they've ever made it in they've had ten or more wins. And they've even missed the playoffs four of the last six times that they've had a winning record. Especially with the season being extended to 17 games, I strongly think that it will take at least ten wins to make it into the AFC playoffs this year, and that the Fins will be fighting with 3-5 other teams for that final spot until the very end. And earning the 7 seed of course wins you a trip to play at the 2 seed in the first round, which won't be fun.
9-8*...with the 17 game season. I'm seeing at LEAST 11-6 personally...slightly optimistic but I don't think unrealistic, unless some wheels fall off. I agree with 10 wins probably not turning into a post-season trip though. How many wins did Vegas have us at before the 2020 season?
Damn, you're right. It's going to take me a while to get used to the 17 game season. In that case, I think 10-7 or 11-6, but I don't think 11-6 is going to be enough to reach the playoffs.
I think that they're probably an 8 win team subjectivity, but due to the weak and favorable schedule, could come out with 10. We'll see how it goes.