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What Outcome Would Make this a Successful Season?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jul 16, 2021.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Just curious where everyone's at in their expectation for this season. We're coming off 10 wins, a narrow miss at the playoffs and likely the most talented defense we've had in decades. The offense is also completely revamped with a young QB, so the potential is there for it to be a great season.

    With that said, what's your expectation? Is repeating with 10 wins "good enough" for a 3rd year team? Would you be angry if we only won 9 games? Or maybe your opinion is based on metrics- passing yards, turnovers, points scored, etc. How will you judge this season?
     
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  2. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I always want the team to improve from last year,a playoff appearance would be good since it's been a while and a playoff win would be spectacular.
     
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Honestly - I'm not sure. We've had another season of significant changes, and the schedule is challenging. More than win/loss record, I think what I want to see is improvement on units that have seen changes/upgrades.

    WR/QB performance definitely needs improving - longer sustained drives.

    I think what I want to see is in myself - I want to watch games and come away feeling more confident in what this team can do.

    These are my initial thoughts any way.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Most HoF coaches prove it early: they establish a consistent winning record starting from year 2-4. So Flores has no excuse IMO for simply "near average" performance. With the 17 game schedule that means 10 wins minimum no excuses or this season is a failure.

    Playoffs? Given that 43.75% of teams make the playoffs I'm expecting it, but if we just barely miss it like last year with 10+ wins I can (barely) live with that if the product on the field suggests Flores is establishing a consistent winning culture. But missing the playoffs in year 3 will not look good. You can make that 10-win missed-the-playoffs excuse for one year but 2 years in a row?? Hard to stomach.

    QB performance tends to asymptote from year 3-4, so I don't expect Tua to be one of the better QB's in the NFL yet, but if Tua has average or below average passer rating then he's more likely to end up a failure than not (statistically) because there's usually a big improvement in year 2 (with some exceptions of course). So Tua's passer rating needs to be at least a few points above average.

    Have to get into a "no excuses" mindset here. We've waiting way too long for consistent success. It's been almost 50 years since we won a SB in a 32 team league (and it used to be even fewer teams). That's worse than chance performance!
     
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's crazy- 50 years! I've never thought of it that way since we had such a dominant team in the 90's with Marino. We really should have picked up a few more rings in that decade.
     
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  6. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that the easy answer is that the Dolphins make the playoffs.

    But as George Orwell once said, "Donkeys live a long time." I hearken back to the first year of Adam Gase where we made the playoffs on the shoulders of Jay Ajayi. Now fast forward to the end of the Gase era, and it was obviously time for him to go. Inexplicably, I remember arguing with multiple people on this board that Gase should be fired, but these people got that first sweet taste of the playoffs, and they could not separate that initial success from Gase's obvious failures as a coach. I am fully convinced that some of those people to this day still believe in Adam Gase.

    So, how could that potentially relate to 2021? I think that this roster is the best roster that we have had in the last 20 years. I really think that it is possible that we could make the playoffs in spite of Tua and not because of Tua. I think that this would have all of the hallmarks of going down the same path with the very same lazy arguments. I was told that Gase's job "was to win games, and he was doing that." I always cringe at draft evaluations where quarterbacks get labeled as "just winners." Odd how that label has never applied to running backs, receivers, or anyone on the defensive side of the ball. It's just lazy analysis.

    So what will a successful season look like to me? I am a patient man, but by the end of the season, I really want Tua to be playing like a good NFL quarterback. I am not asking him to be Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but he has to be more than just a game manager too.

    One caveat that I really want to make clear is that Tua needs to prove himself by the end of the season. That being said, he does not have to have a great season for me to consider this goal to be achieved. If he starts out slow due to his youth/inexperience, that is fine. If it is because he has new coordinators and a new system, great. Believe me, I get that. I am not gonna be the guy to dump on him after the first month. I really wanna see what those last two months of the season look like. I want to view them in their totality as well. I do not want to hang on the best throw of the best game that he had at the end of the season.

    If we can get to a point where Tua achieves this goal, I think we are in great shape. If not, I am very nervous.
     
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  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    A successful season to me is a playoff win.

    Seeing improvement with the team and missing the playoffs, I would be fine with, but I wouldn't think it was successful.
    Making the playoffs would be super awesome, but if they play terrible or lose the first playoff game it would be hard to feel successful.

    However a playoff win would feel amazing and successful
     
  8. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Seconded!
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not going to go with wins or the playoffs. Because the team can hit certain marks while having it still feel empty in the long haul, like 2008. If we go 11-6 and get blown out 45-6 in the Wild Card round, is that really progress? Our last four playoff games, going back twenty years, have all been hopeless blowouts.

    For me, its much more about the subjective.

    Does Tua look like a guy who belongs in the conversation to be in the top 15-20 starting QBs going into 2022?

    Does the offense regularly move the ball, gain first downs and make Red Zone visits without getting unrepeatable big plays?

    Does the offensive line regularly give Tua enough time to scan the field and throw to the open man without forcing it? Do that clear big enough holes in the run game to give the backs a chance to gain 4 to 5 yards?

    Does the defense regularly stop the opposition without taking the ball away? Do they force incompletions, short drives, and punts? Do they stop the run on early downs and force other teams into 3rd and long?

    Those are the kinds of things that I want to see. Be a "real" ten win team that goes out and proves it most weeks. And then if they do that, my expectations will be playoffs in 2022.
     
  10. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Playoffs or it’s time to start asking the tough questions. I believe Flo is the right coach. Question is Grier drafting the right guys?
     
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  11. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    IMO, the definition of "success" begins with us earning a playoff spot. Digging deeper, we need the team to establish some sort of identity. We have a solid scoring defense and that's pretty good (and I hope it continues), but we absolutely need Tua to be the reason we win games this year. If we're winning because the defense forced turnovers or kept the opponents' scores low, it's not enough. The offense HAS to be problematic for opposing teams.

    I'd define a successful season as one where we earn a playoff spot while Tua throws for +4,000 yards and +30 touchdowns.
     
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  12. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Tua becoming a star quarterback. That's all that matters in this league. Once he becomes a star things will be easier.
     
  13. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    For me, in order of importance.

    1) what Cbrad said about HoF coaches developing consistent winners by year 3 of their tenure. I think the only HoF coach who had multiple losing seasons in their first 3 years is Tom Landry. Belichek will join him. My biggest wish for the Dolphins is to find the next Don Shula, so this my number 1.

    2) In the 3 year rebuild this is the year we are supposed to make the playoffs so a successful season will be a playoff win, which will mean we are ahead of schedule.

    3) For Tua a top 8 finish (1sr quartile) in Passer rating will be a successful season. A below average passer rating will be reason for serious concern/analysis.

    4) For the defense a successful season is +1S.D. better than league average in points allowed and passer rating allowed. This usually equates to top 4 or 5. A good run defense would be nice, but it has to be the cherry on top of the cake.

    5) Finding a RB on our roster who is a 1000+ yard rusher at 4.0+ will be a successful season. I know this is an area many of us are worried about. There have been the usual fluff pieces about how [player X] will become a star, but I’ll believe those reports when it happens.
     
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  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Some of you have what I would consider to be unbelievably high standards. And it seems like you want the team to jump from Step 2 to Step 5 overnight.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's a bit more common, but a large majority established a winning culture early. Other than Landry, there are at least 4 famous HoF coaches (in the SB era) that had multiple losing seasons in their first 3 years:

    Chuck Noll
    Marv Levy
    Bill Walsh
    Jimmy Johnson

    Note that for all of them the losing years came first. Once they started winning they kept winning. Also, all of them took over teams that won a maximum of 3 games the year before so it makes some sense the turnaround time was a bit longer. Flores took over a 7-win team so there's no excuse for a losing season in year 3, even given the massive rebuild we went through (our roster isn't that bad now).
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There's a lot of precedent for relatively quick turnarounds that lead to sustained winning and playoffs if you have the right coach, so that's not unrealistic. Same with the right QB turning around the offense. If we missed out on getting the right coach or QB we're in trouble, so these are the right expectations to have IMO.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Before we start asking if Flores (Who's 40 years old and has been a head coach for two years) can be a HOFer, can we ask if he can achieve the level of success of someone like Mike Zimmer, who's had 10, 11 and 13 win seasons, and won two playoff games? Or Mike Smith, who had 10, 11, 13 and 13 win seasons, led the Falcons to the playoffs four times, and went to the NFC title game?

    And maybe, if we can get to that point, we can take the next step and see if we can at some point reach the SB.
     
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  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think you're asking too much, personally. Be patient, and take things one step at a time.
     
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  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    no, what is the point? Year 3 baby!
     
  20. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    Javon Holland ending Marcia's career with his second pick six to end the game as Tua gets his first Super Bowl MVP in a 62-7 smackdown of the yucs.

    Cue the confetti
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think your 1st point is critical and from everything I've seen, Flores is the right coach for this team. I also agree with your second point, making the playoffs is an important step, winning a game or two is a hefty bonus.

    Expecting Tua to be a top-8 quarterback though may be a little too much, too quick. My goal would be top-16, in the top half of the league.

    For the 4th and 5th points, I think we are on track for both. The main thing I want to see this season is consistency developing within the team so we can have expectations from game to game, or season to season. I'm expecting the defense to really find its identity this season and I also think Gaskin will have a solid year from a much-improved passing game.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If you can't dream big, then you're not dreaming at all! Go Fins!
     
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  23. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of this except the last point. I'm less interested in having a 1,000 yard RB than having a 2,000 yard backfield. I would also like 1,000 yards receiving from the RBs. But I am okay without a true bellcow RB
     
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  24. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    10-7, at least.

    I have a sea change of confidence compared to last year's group. Much more firepower, offensively. A lot of players entering the 2nd year on this defense which has more to do with scheme and dew yer jab than star power.

    The big questions that may influence my expectations that I'm hoping to get a glimpse of during the joint practice and preseason games:

    1) Tua development
    2) Offensive line development stagnation
    3) Howard holdout
     
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  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I’m not grading on success/fail.
    I’m grading on success (exceeds expectations / OK (meets expectations) / fail (below expectations).
     
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  26. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Playoffs. No playoffs means an unsuccessful season. I don't particularly care about record, stats, etc. Just get to the playoffs. I don't really even *need* a win, though a blowout loss would be borderline unsuccessful again.
     
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  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    In theory, would a 9-8 record and a playoff loss be "more successful " than a 11-6 record and no playoffs due to tiebreakers?
     
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  28. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Couldn't have said it better myself!
     
  29. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    What I want to see from the Dolphins to consider this season a success is ending the year with a reasonable conviction, based on the years play, that we can overcome deficits and win, that we can sustain leads and win, and that we are a threat to score on every offensive or defensive play of every game.

    Then I will really enjoy our games!

    When I feel, as opposed to expect, that we can actually win games against any team on any play, then the Dolphins will have succeeded, as far as I am concerned.

    Try and statistic-size that - LOL
     
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  30. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A play-off appearance is the very minimum measure of a successful season, likely as a wildcard. Anything less and we're just treading water while the Jest and the Past are catching up.
     
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  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    So if the team looks much stronger all around, has a number of memorable victories where they outclass the opponent, goes 10-7, but misses out due to a very top heavy AFC and tiebreakers, you would consider the season to not be successful at all?

    I see that as probably the most likely good-case scenario for this season, honestly.
     
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  32. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    If the loss is competitive, then yes. A 9-8 season, backing into a playoff spot more due to other team's failure/injury and then losing like 42-10, I might change my mind a bit.

    But getting to the playoffs indicates resiliency and the ability to win crucial games, especially later in the season and within the division. If we go 11-6 but miss the playoffs, it's a great record but ultimately empty and meaningless and shows we likely blew some key spots.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Can you explain your reasoning for that?

    Lets say that the Fins go 11-6, and the AFC playoff field is something like this:

    KC 15-2
    BUF 14-3
    TEN 13-4
    CLE 13-4
    BAL 12-5
    IND 12-5
    LA 12-5

    MIA 11-6

    NE 9-8
    PIT 9-8
    LV 9-8

    Vs the Fins going 9-8 and it being something like this:

    KC 15-2
    BUF 14-3
    TEN 13-4
    CLE 13-4
    BAL 13-4
    IND 12-5

    MIA 9-8

    LV 9-8
    NE 9-8
    PIT 9-8
    LA 9-8

    And the Fins get in due to some complicated tiebreakers.

    Is the second scenario better? What did the Fins do in that case that makes you happier? Basically, the Chargers had a worse season, and lost games against the Chiefs and Ravens, and it benefitted the Fins, giving them the 7 seed, and a game at powerhouse Buffalo for their troubles.

    But is Miami losing two more games better because they snuck into the playoffs as the last team in the AFC?
     
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  34. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Getting into the play-offs is key. That means you get to play in January where anything can happen. There are numerous examples where the last seed limped into the play-offs, found a groove and, went on to win it all. We're in a competitive division full of talented 1st round QBs. (NE has two). Having a respectable record and not making the play-offs likely means the competition in the conference is developing better than you are. Yeah, there are always positives that you can point to in comparing last season's squad to this year as you sit at home in January rooting for whoever is playing Buffalo. Personally, I want to see our coaches kick it up a notch in the play-offs.
     
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  35. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Playoff Berth, IMO. We were very close last season.
     
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  36. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm wary of a small step backward in performance, personally. I think the team kind of over-achieved last year as a result of catching some schedule-related breaks which don't appear to be there this year.

    So I'm hoping for 3 things:

    (1) The team to somehow win 10+ games and prove last year wasn't just luck.

    (2) Tua Tagovailoa to do things that make it clear he can be a special QB.

    (3) The OL investments to begin paying dividends.
     
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  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think they cam take a good sized step forward and still end up at ten wins due to the same things you listed. And if so, then 10 wins won't be disappointing to me.
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's a pretty good list, 10+ wins and offensive growth....hopefully without the D regressing too far.
     
  39. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that the D has a lot of room to get better too, honestly. Last year, they were great at taking the ball away. They had moments where the pass rush was very effective. But otherwise, there were a lot of issues. I'm optimistic that they'll be better.
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's true- I don't think it's possible to have as many consistent turnovers and game-changing moments this season, but we can definitely improve on pressuring the QB, stopping the run, etc. I'm very excited for this year to get started!
     
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