1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Is this the year that the Dolphins finally finish better than 21st in the league in yardage?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Unlucky 13, Jul 15, 2021.

  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The Dolphins have ranked 21st or worse in the league in offensive yardage in ten of the past eleven seasons - with 2014 as the high water mark, when they finished 14th. (Some nice symmetry there)

    All told, they have only finished the season ranked higher than 21st four times since 2000, and their high water mark was in 2008, when the smoke and mirrors offense ended the year ranked 12th.

    I don't think that they'll break into the top third of the league in 2021. The running game is just too weak and the passing game and offensive line too unproven. But do we think that they can finish in the top half?

    Last year, the league average team gained 5744 yards from scrimmage, while the Fins gained 5424. A difference of 320 yards, or exactly 20 a game. But even that's a little deceiving, as the bottom of the league dragged down the average numbers. The 19th ranked offense was Baltimore, who gained 5810 yards. So had Miami been "average", they would have only ranked 20th anyways, instead of 22nd. To make it into the top half, they would have needed to beat the Browns, who gained 5913 yards, or 489 more than Miami.

    The problem for the Dolphins is that everyone keeps gaining more yards. Their best mark of the last 20 seasons would have only ranked 21st last year. So getting even getting better isn't enough, because the bar keeps getting raised.
     
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Here's the thing- this team is built for versatility and creating turnovers. The offense made major upgrades this season but I don't know if it will translate in 2021 in terms of total yards. That stat could even decrease this year without Fitz at the helm.

    Being in the top half for yardage just doesn't feel realistic unless Tua and the O line all make major strides in one offseason. And sure, that's what we're all hoping for, but to me the actual wins are more important no matter how they happen. I'll be perfectly content if the defense carries us for another season.
     
  3. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Averages are better-informed so it's probably more insightful to look at Y/A (or AY/A). The Dolphins ranked 23rd last year in Y/A passing. It's clear there's a correlation between passing efficiency and winning but there's also a clear link to those things and the overall quality of your QB. But consider where the rookies ranked:

    1) Watson (8.9)
    2) Cousins (8.3)
    3) Rodgers (8.2)
    4) Allen (8.0)
    5) Carr (8.0)
    6) Mahomes (7.9)
    7) Tannehill (7.9)
    8) Brady (7.6)
    9) Stafford(7.6)
    10) Rivers(7.6)
    11) Garoppolo(7.6)
    12) Brees(7.6)
    13) Wilson (7.5)
    14) Bridgewater (7.5)
    15) Ryan (7.4)
    16) Mayfield (7.4)
    17) Herbert (7.3)
    ...
    23) Dolphins (7.0 >>> Tua = 6.3, Fitz = 7.8)
    ...
    25) Bengals (6.5)
    ...
    32) Jets (6.2)

    The youngest QBs in the top half of the league all have 3-4 years experience but the majority are veterans.

    It's tough to ask a 2nd year QB in a new system to lead his team to great-looking stats but hopefully we'll see enough from Tua and the offense that we get a winning season out of it and some reason to be optimistic about winning Play-off games in 2022 and beyond.
     
  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    3,757
    3,787
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    Yes.
     
  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    For me though, this particular topic isn't about winning. Winning is a team effort. We've had teams that won with a lousy offense because the defense was awesome. You can win or you can lose because of the special teams as well of course. I strongly prefer to separate the offense from that discussion and look at it on it's own merits.

    And I also don't want to make this topic just about Tua, or QBs in general. Again, I'm not talking about winning games here. I'm talking about gaining yardage. The frustrating fact that the Fins have been in the bottom half of the league in 16 of the past 20 seasons, and never in the top third in that span. That's hard to do! To almost always be below average for two decades straight!
     
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    If wide receivers that make the team are Fuller, Waddle, Wilson, and Bowden, then Miami will most likely have the best YAC team in a long time, which should help a lot with yards.
     
  7. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,325
    1,381
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    I will give you the ominous, "we should be response." I will go one step further and say that the talent level is clearly top half of the league in terms of offense.

    Our receiver unit is as deep as I can ever recall. Look at a guy like Preston Williams who started for us last year. I would say that he is probably on the roster bubble today. This is not because of him, it is because we have so many people that are talented AND experienced enough to take his spot.

    The same holds true for the tight end position. Guys like Smythe and Shaheen could wind up getting the axe not because of their play, but the fact that we have even more talented guys ahead of them.

    Roll down to the offensive line. Same thing. Guys like Jesse Davis and DJ Fluker are not locks to make the team. We have drafted a lot of early round talent in recent year and are building the line properly. Moreover, we were involved with late round draft picks and undrafted free agents. If those guys show enough promise, Davis and/or Fluker could be cut.

    My point is that these positional units are so deep, we are prepared for the the eventual injuries that will happen.

    I think a lot of people on this board are underwhelmed at the RB position, myself included. I do think that Gaskin is okay and Brown could be a nice combination back. I consider this to be a "good enough" positional group. I also would not be surprised if we add a RB via trade or waiver wire at the end of the preseason. In my mind, I would be willing to tell a team that they could have anyone from this group of players for a respectable back: Grant, Williams, Wilson, Hurns, Shaheen, Smythe, Davis, Fluker. I think there is a good chance that we do see an upgrade here.

    Finally, the million dollar question is Tua. I sincerely think that there is enough around him to say, "If you can't get it done with this, the problem is you." In terms of talent, I think Tua has more around him than most QBs in the league. The only thing different about this positional group is that there really isn't a plan B. We do have Brissett, but I think that the situation would have to be dire to turn to him. Essentially doing so would be giving up on Tua, so I don't really think that will happen.
     
  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    I’ll give you a simple bottom line answer…

    If we can EFFECTIVELY run the ball, then yes.

    If we’re forced into 3rd and long every series because we can’t gain at least 5 yards on a single rush, then no.

    Running the ball is everything!
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Plan B is that three of the top 5 QB's in the league want to be traded (Rodgers, Wilson, Watson) and our "plan A" make us an instant SB contender with one of them. I am not expecting that to happen but once we get into pre-season without those guys in the building, we'll start hearing more of those "Xavien Howard for such and such QB" noise a lot more often.
     
    tirty8 likes this.
  10. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Well, I understand what you want to see. However, my point was that QB-quality is the ultimate driver of that.

    Yards is a function of situation. Every team is subject to different circumstances so "total yards" isn't a fair comparison. Not every team takes the same # of snaps for example.

    So what we want to see is a high Yds/play average. Again, you always want to compare to the rest of the league using averages.

    Because running the ball matters so little in today's game (this is observed by way of it's low correlation to teams' W/L record) the idea of "quality offense" basically amounts to "good passing ability."

    The most telling stat in determining passing proficiency is Y/A. You cannot fake that. For instance, a team can throw the ball a lot and achieve 5,000-yds passing. We saw the Lions do it with Matthew Stafford (663 attempts) and the Bucs do it with lowly Jameis Winston (626 attempts). Neither are viewed as great QBs. You can also protect yourself from INTs by checking it down. Tua did that a lot last year.

    What cannot be faked is producing a lot of yardage with a relatively low number of passing attempts (Y/A). So I agree with you that yardage is important, but only on a per-play or per-throw basis. And what ultimately drives that is good QB play.

    So if you want to see the Dolphins develop a more potent offense, you're essentially just asking for better QB play. It's no surprise to me that the Dolphins have sucked in recent memory. The best QBs they've had were a young/developing Ryan Tannehill (subject to several different OCs) as well as a limp-armed Chad Pennington who only played 1 year. The rest of Miami's QBs were below average quality: Henne, Cutler, Moore, Beck, Lemon, Fiedler, etc. The best of that list were short-term stop-gaps.

    And the fact some folks may instinctively jump up to assert that Matt Moore was "good" is all you need to know about how bad Miami's QBs have been, LOL.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2021
    tirty8 likes this.
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Matt Moore was the best QB we've had over the past two decades! LMAO, just ask others here...it's better to agree with me on that than debate it. =)
     
  12. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,325
    1,381
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    I nominate this for post of the week!
     
  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    If it ain't John Beck, I don't give a heck!
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The cult around Matt Moore is just as strange as the one around weak armed Pennington.
     
    DolphinGreg likes this.
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    For changing the topic even after I said that wasn't what I wanted to talk about in this thread? :glare:
     
  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    100% disagree.

    Pennington at least showed he had the capability to be a starter.
     
  17. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    In their defense though, Matt Moore did a great job looking the part with his helmet off. In a world of Peyton Mannings and Jay Cutlers...
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    There's a cult?!? As far as I knew, I've been a one-man band this entire time!
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Matt was a solid QB in Carolina before concussion protocols and he took some really nasty consecutive hits- there was a good two-year stretch where he really didn't belong on the field at all. If you throw out those "injury games", he's been above average the rest of his career.

    What I've always loved about him though was the leadership combined with his fearless attitude- teammates would kill for the guy. I know a lot of folks don't love his flavor of football...take chances, be bold and to heck with the consequences...but I absolutely love a gunslinger on offense that makes things happen. Fitz was a lot like that for us as well.
     
  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    My desires in a QB are almost as opposite from that as they can be, lol.
     
    KeyFin likes this.

Share This Page