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Tua vs. Herbert vs. Watson

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jul 19, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Adam Beasley moved over to PFN and he's just published a new piece:

    https://www.profootballnetwork.com/...a-deshaun-watson-miami-dolphins-qb-situation/

    "Justin Herbert’s topline stats were unquestionably better. He had the best statistical season by a rookie ever. But pocket passers typically take longer to adjust than mobile quarterbacks. Plus, the advanced stats tell a more complete story.

    Tua actually was more aggressive than Herbert, throwing to the sticks more and completing longer passes through the air, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus, Tua had an inferior offensive line. He was given, on average, thirteen-hundredths of a second less time to throw than his Chargers counterpart in 2020."

    ...

    "And yet, there’s a chance none of this matters.

    We’re told the Dolphins have enough lingering questions about Tua’s ability and future that they would still consider trading for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson if his legal situation is somehow resolved in time for the 2021 season."

    "The Dolphins have never seen Tua play in the NFL totally healthy. They’ve never seen what he can do with weapons like Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, who were both added this offseason.

    And they’ve never seen him play in a system specifically designed for him, with full mastery of the playbook."

    ...

    "It’s Year 3 of the Brian Flores era. For all the good work he’s done since taking over for Adam Gase, he hasn’t yet made the playoffs. This is the year the rebuild needs to come together.

    But with the regular season just eight weeks away, there’s still a chance that rebuild veers in a direction never imagined with the Dolphins drafting Tua fifth overall just 15 months ago."
     
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  2. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    This article states nothing new.

    Tua will be the starter this year and if he falters he's likely not going to be the starter in 2022 IMO.

    We will either use the draft capital to trade up for a QB or will trade for Watson once his legal issues are fixed.
     
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  3. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, and basically every team in the NFL is interested in Deshaun Watson should he become available. Nothing unique about that either.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The unique part is that it's leaked to multiple outlets that Miami is his preferred destination...and has been all along.

    I've been telling myself that I don't want a pervert like Watson at QB, but at the end of the day it's basically impossible to turn away a franchise, top-3 QB in his prime. I'm pretty sure I'd pout for a week, talk a little trash and then be thrilled with the addition.
     
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  5. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, same here. I'm actually a Clemson Alum as well. I did my undergrad studies during the Charlie Whitehurst era and went back for grad school during the era of Boyd & Watson.

    It'd be crazy to see Christian Wilkins and Deshaun Watson both end up playing for the Dolphins. I have a friend down the street who's another Clemson faithful. He's inevitably going to root for whatever team Deshaun Watson plays for (along with the Jags now that they've got Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne).

    I'm definitely one of those who'd be willing to forget all about Tua in a heartbeat if Watson was actually someone the Dolphins could acquire for a reasonable price. At the end of the day, Waston's pervishness definitely isn't the worst kind of thing imaginable. It's more embarassing than anything, a la Rex Ryan's foot thing, haha.

    Here I thought Deshaun Watson and Mia Khalifa were going to be an item, LOL. Wouldn't be the first time he disappointed me!
     
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  6. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    The Grier/Flo regime is the most impatient assemblage of personnel managers that I've seen in 50 years of being an NFL fan. I'm not saying that Tua will be a stud, but we move on from players based on first impressions faster than anybody that I've seen in sports. And I disagree with Beasley that this is the year where the rebuild has to take hold. It's been fast-tracked based on last season but I always believed that year four was the season when it had to present results. With that being said, I expect significant changes to be made if we take a step backward.
     
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  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Even Flores said this is the team that they are going to win with if they are going to win.

    This year has to show something positive.
     
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  8. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Only concerned with Tua staying healthy. Otherwise he has shown enough talent to have faith he will produce this year.
     
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  9. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Tua more aggressive than Herbert? Tua completing longer passes then Herbert? Is this in some kind of alternate universe that I'm not aware of?

    Also, just how long is thirteen-hundredths of a second anyway? Must be a lot longer that I thought for the writer to make a point of including it in the article.
     
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  10. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    There's a link in the article and in the OP showing the stats.

    In terms of time to throw Herbert ranks 23rd (of 41) with 2.69 seconds, Tua ranks 35th (of 41) with 2.55 seconds.

    Avg. completed air yards - Tua 5.3, Herbert 5.2
    Avg. intended air yard - Tua 7.7, Herbert 7.5
    Air yds. differential - Tua & Herbert - 2.3
    Aggressiveness % - Tua 20.3, Herbert 18
    Longest completed air distance - Herbert 63.2 (3rd), Tua 44.6 (4th to last)
    Air yds. to the sticks - Tua -0.8, Herbert -1.3

    Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)
    Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.

    Average Air Yards Differential (AYD)
    Air Yards Differential is calculated by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes.

    Aggressiveness (AGG%)
    Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

    Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD)
    Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball.

    Air Yards to the Sticks (AYTS)
    Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch.
     
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  11. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Looks like a lot of hair-splitting to me. My eyes tell me who the better QB is, and it's not that close really.
     
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  12. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    So what you are saying is in the end you expect a happy ending?
     
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  13. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I think this isn’t about Tua. It’s about an opportunity to grab a HoF caliber passer at the start if the prime of his career. Watson has shown himself to be a consistent top 3 passer in the league, which basically means that for at least 25 or 26 teams he’s an upgrade over their current QB situation.

    No matter how much you believe in Tua any sane judgement is that Watson with his legal situation resolved is the better option. The only reason not to take Watson over Tua is if the cost [cap space/draft picks/ PR concerns for the team/risk of re-offending] is too high.

    Again this is a almost unique situation in NFL history for a QB as good as Watson to be trying to force his way off his team at this stage of his career.
     
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  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I can't disagree with you or @Dol-Fan Dupree. I was speaking in broader terms than Tua, though. It doesn't take Flo very long to decide that the prize behind curtain number two is likely better than what he already has. No disrespect intended, I wish I had that quality. And yeah, Watson would be an upgrade over most of the QBs in the league but nobody's discussing trading Herbert or Burrow for him. The only caveat with obtaining Watson is that anything less than immediate playoff success would be seen as a failure of the rebuild.
     
  15. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    :chuckle:

    In all reality, I think we all are (if we're being honest).
     
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  16. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I don’t care if Watson’s legal situation is “resolved” or not. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. You don’t have sexual assault allegations levied against you for no reason…

    Harvey Weinstein
    Jeffrey Epstein
    Bill Cosby
    Bill Clinton
    Deshaun Watson

    I don’t care how great of an individual player you are, football is a team sport and a team doesn’t need the distraction that is Deshaun Watson
     
  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Let’s add the McMartin pre-school and Cardinal George Pell to that list. Who needs a trial or evidence?
     
  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You’re missing the point. The team doesn’t need the DISTRACTION that is Watson. Whether or not he’s innocent or guilty is a different point all together.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Out of curiosity, who's the better QB- Herbert or Burrow? I'm not even sure why Watson was lumped in with the other rookies while Burrow was left out.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Because Herbert could have been picked instead of Tua and Watson allegedly remains on the radar to replace Tua.
     
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  21. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I get that, but you can't compare a rookie QB coming off major injury to an all-star QB several seasons in. No sane person would say, "I think Tua's better than Watson."
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    No. But that wasn't what the article was saying.
     
  24. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I think they're suggesting that Miami is close to being a contending team, depending on Tua's development. How long will that take (if it ever occurs)? Tua might be better than Watson in a couple of seasons but Watson is undoubtedly better right now, for whatever reason. Trading for Watson wouldn't happen because of Tua's potential; it would happen because of his ability as a pro QB right now.
     
  25. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Never a big fan of those kinds of stats - 10th best with 500 or more snaps since 2006.
    And though it’s out of 45, it’s still rather arbitrary.

    And it doesn’t mean anything.

    I don’t say that to be critical of Tua. I am a fan and want him to succeed. The piece also said Tua had doubters outside the organization but it seems to me the greatest doubters are inside. I think I have more patience and hold out more upside hope than Flores and Grier do!

    I really don’t like the repeated reports that the Dolphins would still be interested in Watson if he goes on the trade block. In one sense, of course. Anyone would.

    But I do wish they would just move on and at least act like they aren’t interested and be all in with Tua and developing him. If they get contacted or word gets out about Watson being exonerated and on the trade block, then inquire. Otherwise table that.
     
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  26. patcobb

    patcobb Active Member

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    My eye test tells me that tua looked a bit small and apprehensive starting last year coming off a major injury going into the NFL during covid. Didn't help that he had 4 offensive line rookies and not a great surrounding collection of talent. Kid never really stood a chance and despite this put up okay and winning numbers. My eye test also told me that he really throws a beautiful ball.
    We have seen Watson play at a top 3 level.
    I am such a homer that I feel/hope tua will be the next drew breeze and this will be a footnote. Having said that I feel like he either shows major progression very early in the season because id imagine bye the start of the season there should be a better handle on Watsons legal issues and I would not be too suprised by a mid season trade
     
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