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What Outcome Would Make this a Successful Season?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jul 16, 2021.

  1. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    We probably won't know because they will most likely be going to 18 games soon enough.

    I think then 10-8 will be the new 9-7.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I 100% agree up until the last four words. It is their fault they missed the playoffs- we just had to win game #11. The home opener against the Pats, the boring game versus the Broncos, the early loss to the Bills....even the loss to the Chargers in November. We had a chance to win those games and we ultimately didn't.

    I'm not knocking them for that and Flores did a fantastic job overall last year, but not getting that 11th win is his fault. Buffalo beat the brakes off us in week 17 and that's clearly a team loss from the top down.
     
  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Well, with that logic, its their fault that they don't go undefeated every year, lol.

    I understand what you mean, but last year's team did not underachieve. Frankly, I think that they were truly a 6 or 7 win team that went way over their heads. This isn't like the Wanny days, when you could say that they won 10 or 11 games and should have won 12 or 13.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely, most of us expected 6 or 7 wins tops. The absolutely over-achieved with turnovers and just great hustle.
     
  5. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    They also did a great job of playing the system. They were very well coached.

    Though I was expecting 8 or 9 wins.
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If anyone is going to argue that they should have won a few games that they lost last year, I would counter that they won at least three that they probably shouldn't have, and got lucky with opponents injuries in a couple of other ones too.

    The last time that I had expectations of a winning season and the Fins didn't then go out and underachieve, Jimmy was the head coach. Its been quite a while. Hopefully this year changes that.
     
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  7. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's 100% true.

    There was SO MUCH that ended up going in the Dolphins favor last year. They got to play some of the worst teams in the NFL: Jags, Jets (2x) and the Bengals without Joe Burrow. Many of the west coast teams had to travel to Miami: Seahawks, Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, etc. They got 2 games against NE when they were having a down year. They faced the Rams and 49ers during down years, too. The Broncos were pretty bad. The Raiders were playing with almost their entire starting defense out with Covid.

    And all the while, Miami never had any major losses to IR nor did very many guys have to sit out for Covid-related things. Preston Williams went to IR, Albert Wilson sat out the season and Wilkins missed the Denver game. That's nothing.

    And to top tings off Tua was completely unremarkable late in the season. He was a major reason for the Denver loss would've absolutely been to blame had the team lost to the Raiders.

    People acting like the Play-offs are a given are fooling themselves. Last year's team was .500 quality and if Tua doesn't play better this year the team will most likely fail to even get beyond 9-8.
     
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  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that they should have improved enough, both via young players developing and the additions via free agency and the draft, that with good health a winning season can be expected.

    However, they didn't really add to a 10 win team. More like they've Hopefully turned a 7 win team into a legit 10 win one.
     
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  9. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Absolutely. I think it really rests on Tua.

    If he's not better than being the 20-something rated guy he was last year nothing's going to happen for the team. The W/L record will probably express how far he's come. Anything over 10 wins though will impress me. The QBs the Dolphins are set to face this year will definitely be a notch or two above those they faced last year.
     
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  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Playoff win+. This is my personal view of it.

    We should see numerous blatant signs that this team is on the right trajectory for a championship in the not-so-distant future, THIS season. Flo took grocery baggers and won 5 games (including knocking the Pats OUT of a bye week, at THEIR house). Got some upgrades in talent, made big changes to the coaching staff and won 10 games. Got a sizeable injection of talent this year, including several "should-be" starters in the draft, and a bunch of hand-picked veteran role-players of character...pieces that directly fit what Flo is doing with the Xs and Os.

    For me to consider this season a success, it MUST show that we're steadily, markedly improving as a team...which will include several players showing obvious improvement, Tua included (which I 100% believe he will). If we're really better than last year, then the playoffs is automatic and a win should be expected.

    I expect to see:

    - Handily winning games we should win (i.e. 2020 Denver, Raiders, for example).

    - Tua being widely viewed as a reliable, to-be franchise QB, not just by the 'experts' but by fellow players around the league.

    - Defense not losing its efficiency and schematic prowess, whether X stays or goes. Offense having a stronger showing in the run game, due to player improvement at the position, schematic improvement and overall offensive performance leading to better opportunities.

    - Earnestly challenge Barfalo for the division.

    - If there are 7 AFC teams with 10+ wins, we better have 11+.

    - Clearly pass the eyeball test on how the team shows up and reacts to game progression week-to-week (may be the biggest factor I'm looking for).

    That's my stance, Flo has laid the groundwork and shown the improvement to place this team in the next level (routine playoff team). If it doesn't happen, there are big problems, IMO.
     
  11. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It's been said already, but we have to make the playoffs or this season is a failure.
     
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  12. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    A successful season is at least a first round win in the playoffs. I'd like to say a deeper run than just the 2nd round.

    Look the goal is always a Super Bowl win.
     
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  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    You need to be realistic, though. This team hasn't won a playoff game in 20 years, and hasn't been competitive in the Divisional Round since Shula was the head coach. They've also won exactly one road playoff game since 1973, and that was in the Kingdome in Seattle.

    Asking them to jump from overachieving to a winning record last year to upsetting one of the best teams in the AFC on the road in the playoffs is quite the demand.
     
  14. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I don't think I am being unrealistic and I don't think they overacheived last year. It's quite simple, if Tua is who we hope he is we should easily make the playoffs this year.
     
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  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Is it though? First off, we shouldn't assume that we'll be a wild card playing one of the top teams in the AFC. We could easily end up the #4 seed playing the Titans or Colts, which is a winnable game to me.

    There's also a chance we could take the division- if we had beaten the Bills twice last year, we would have been 12-4 and they would have been 11-5. I know that wasn't realistic and I know we over-achieved....but we'll field a better team this year and it is possible in 2021. If we do manage to split or sweep the Bills, the division isn't out of the question. The Jets will be better (they'll still suck) and I don't think NE has any answers for our defense. Honestly, I have a feeling that the Pats will be at the bottom of the division in the next couple of years.
     
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  16. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    So disagree. We almost beat them when we first played them with Fitzy. We lost by a field goal. Now, with our new supposed franchise QB on who we spent a high first round pick going into his second season, beating the Bills should not be considered an unrealistic expectation.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Buffalo did it last year, why not us? Buffalo hadn't won a playoff game in 24 years, then goes to the Conference Championship after going 10-6 the year before. Then you have teams like Pittsburgh who had a winning record in only 5 out of 38 years (going back to way before the merger) before becoming a consistent powerhouse. Then you have teams like Tampa that went 14 years with no playoffs (starting from '83) before becoming a consistent contender for awhile (and winning a SB), then going another 17 years with no playoff wins (2 appearances) before winning the SB last year.

    That's just looking at record. Looking at how the team played last year it's pretty clear our defense is for real. Not sure if we can come in ranked #6 again, but realistically it's top 10. The only question is the offense. Tua has more experience now and we added some offensive weapons so it stands to reason getting to 10 wins isn't unrealistic, making playoffs realistic enough. Winning a playoff game? Depends a lot on Tua. But no I don't think this is unrealistic at all. Unlikely maybe, but not unrealistic.
     
  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    This tends to be the topic with most threads, but I think that people are asking too much too soon of Tua. He wasn't my choice, but I think that he needs a lot of time and room to grow. You just can't make snap judgements about him this year, and especially due to the team's won/loss record and/or playoff fate. Its just being too impatient and too rash.

    To me, if things go really, really well this season, the team will end up with 10 or 11 wins, and look a lot more solid than they did last year. They would sneak into the playoffs as a WC, and put up a fight in the WC round. Realistically, that seems like a best case scenario.

    Should that all come to pass, then we can talk about maybe winning a playoff game and going further in 2022. But one thing at a time.
     
  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that you're getting way ahead of yourself with the defense. They had a lot of holes a year ago, and turnovers at critical times - often by X Howard - saved their skin. I'm hopeful for improvement this season all around, but I'm not using the surface results from 2020 as a baseline. The truth was a lot uglier than the facade.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I agree they seemed to overachieve last year. What's important is whether that "overachievement" was actually a sign of good coaching that made unlikely plays more likely. We'll see. I mean.. "overachievement" is fine if done consistently. What the defense does in 2021 is as important as seeing what Tua does because that will really tell us what kind of a coach we have in Flores. And if we don't have the right coach, your idea of gradual improvement won't come to pass either. It'll just stall at average (deja vu for the Dolphins).
     
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  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    NFL history is littered with teams that make a surprising jump from average to one of the best records in the league from one season to the next. Some of those teams made it to the Super Bowl. Some even won it. But most of them didn't then go on to have sustained success. They tend to fall way off again and the magic of that one special year is lost.

    That is absolutely not what I want for the Fins. I want them to lay a rock solid foundation that allows them to gradually get to the point where they go into each year, with good health, thinking that the Divisional Round is well within sight realistically. And once you get there, then you can fight for the Super Bowl.
     
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That's what they have.
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I know. We've had this discussion before. Personally, I'd prefer winning one SB within a 10-15 year period where we're otherwise uncompetitive than being highly competitive for most of those 10-15 years and never winning the SB. That's just me. I personally think the number of SB's you win is the primary determinant of franchise success.

    So for me the most successful franchises are Pittsburgh and New England (both with 6 SB's) and then the 49ers and Dallas (both with 5). I hate all those teams for that reason alone because it's more than the number of SB's the Dolphins have won lol.
     
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  24. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Fingers crossed, but nothing certain yet, as far as I'm concerned.

    I see 2019 as Year -1/0, 2020 as real year 1, and this season as year 2. Hopefully in realistic year 3 (2022) we can make some noise. But to me, 2021 is more about proving that yes, they are really making progress.
     
  25. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Eh, you're basically describing MLB's Marlins. Not sure if that's a great barometer. But I think if you look at the NFL, you generally have teams that a good and then have a brief breakthrough to win it all. It's been complicated by the Patriot juggernaut taking up so many Lombardis, but you look at teams like the Ravens, Saints, Steelers, Seahawks. I think you are more likely to win if you are consistently a high-level team over a 5+ year span than just skyrocketing out of nowhere for a win followed by a decade of pitiable losing. That's more likely in a sport like the NBA where individuals can have a much bigger difference. In the NFL, you really need a solid foundation to keep you in the picture and then you hope you catch a lucky streak at some point to vault to the top.
     
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  26. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    To the greater point of "needing to win" a playoff game to prove something, look at the Chiefs under Andy Reid.

    In his first season after coming to KC from PHI in 2013, they made it to the playoffs, but lost in the WC round.

    In 2014, they fell to 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

    In 2015, they won in the WC round, then lost in the divisional round (progress)

    In 2016, they earned a first round bye, then lost in the divisional round

    In 2017, they lost in the WC round

    In 2018, they made it to the AFC championship game

    And then in 2019, they won the Super Bowl

    Reid stabilized the team, gradually made them better, and they made progress towards their ultimate goal. And they've now had eight straight winning seasons, winning 11+ games in six of those.
     
  27. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    1) Reid already had an established pedigree that included a Super Bowl appearance and multiple runs to the NFC championship.

    2) In KC, he won a playoff game year 3, which is what we are hoping of Flores. At the least, we need to make it and act like we belong. This is the next piece of the puzzle.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I wasn't talking about the likelihood of winning a SB. I'm talking about knowing you've won one SB in 10-15 years with an otherwise bad team vs. knowing you didn't win a SB but had consistent playoff success. Unlucky 13 in the past said he'd prefer the latter IF you had to choose. I prefer the former. Obviously if you can have both that's better.
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Fair enough.

    Personally, I think as it happens, the good seasons with no championship would be more enjoyable (barring the one year), but in retrospect, flags fly forever. Get the Christmas tree ornament up. :clap:
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    First off, baseball is a lot different since you can buy a roster with no cap space restrictions- which is what the Marlins did multiple times, right before the franchise was sold.

    Second, I remember both of those seasons and they were awesome to watch, even though I was never a big baseball fan. Fans tend to remember the victories.

    Third, the Marlins team wasn't sustained because their star players were shipped off the following year....because the goal wasn't to be sustainable. It was to drive up the selling price of the team and then move on. The next owners could have kept those high-priced rosters in tact though and build a legacy....they chose not to.

    Fourth, the Marlins are a terrible example since they've drafted so many awesome Cuban players over the years that essentially showed up on a raft to attend try-outs. They had a massive home-field advantage since Cubans could catch local broadcasts on AM radio in Cuba. I always thought that was a super-cool side bonus of playing in South Florida.
     
  31. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    In today's NFL you really don't need to think that way. It is all about putting in the system and getting the players to play towards the system. The system on defense is set. Will they get as many turnovers? I do not know, however, during what you called -1 toward the end of the season they were starting to get turnovers. I see 2019 was year 1 because for half the year they were a decent team. Which is surprising as they were anything but in the first half of the year.

    Sure in 2020 there were some games they could have lost, but there are no good teams in the NFL that doesn't have those type of games. They also had games where a few bounces went the right way they would have won. There was only 1 game they were out. Even the first New England game they were a few big plays away from having a chance.

    I know people like to say they overachieved, but how? All the players who played well none of them were surprises. Maybe Sieler.

    I think they have a talented team with a very solid base. They are well-coached and as of this moment take well to coaching.

    I think some pushback comes from the idea that there are only two states, Successful and Failure.
     
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  32. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Although those stats are generally true there are enough exceptions that I would not be too concerned. Since we don’t know that Flores is not an exception and what the QB situation will look like over time. And there are other exceptions. Especially more recently. It all depends on so many variables.

    Look at Belichick. 5-11, 11-5, 9-7. While it wasn’t a losing season it was a big drop off from SB champions to missing the playoffs. They went from 6th ranked on both offense and defense to 10th and 17th respectively.

    Very similar path with Doug Peterson tho he is now out of Philly.

    The second year often is a big jump but then there may be a drop off.

    That said, barring a major injury bug and/or a blow up at CB if X leaves / holds out … I think Miami will play well this year and into the future.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I know that I'm in the minority as far as this goes here, but I see creating turnovers purely as a bonus. Ideally, a welcome side effect of taking a lead and forcing the other team to play from behind, so that you can put them away. But if turnovers are the primary way that you're stopping the other team a lot of the time, then I think you're playing with fire and the defense still needs a bunch of work. I also want/need to see them create pressure on the QB by bringing four or fewer players in a pass rush, and ideally only blitzing DBs on occasion when they see a vulernability.

    We'll see if they've improved in areas beyond that this year when the time comes. To this point, I'm far from convinced.
     
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  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I just can't agree with that. Some defenses historically have thrived getting turnovers.

    Also the blitzing thing you might as well ask a dog to be a cat. Because that is not the style of defense.
     
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  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ageeed. 100%. Up to this point, the Flo-effect is real.
     
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  36. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Last year was the most aggressive, playmaking defense I’ve ever seen in Miami.

    That was the source of turnovers. I don’t know that they will have the same amount this year but perhaps they will hold up better against the run and cause more punts?

    But this defense has as much raw talent as any in the last 40 years - count ‘em, 40 - other than the early 2000s. But the bigger difference is the coaching and defensive system that we run which is more patriotesque - Far better than the early 2000’s system.
     
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  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    We'll agree except on your final point. I hate the Patriots system, and I don't believe in it. I'll continue to hope that they eventually decide to change because they draft/develop talent that would best be used in a different way.
     
  38. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    It is very fun to watch, plus it is also very malleable. Which allows it to change week to week based on the offense. The early 2000s defense was very rigid. If the scheme had a hole a team would just spank the Dolphins.

    This defense allows players to get hurt and still be effective. I am very excited.
     
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  39. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Well … That system dominated the Dolphins system from the early 2000s at the end of each year bec it gradually became more and more complex whereas Miami remained entirely vanilla. And several other mor complex systems have similarly performed better. Obviously, a degree of talent is essential. But it doesn’t require the finest physical talent and can defeat better talent bec it is both sound and team oriented (vs reliance on each part self functioning). The Dolphins could not blitz or disguise anything very well. BBs D was always so unpredictable. In the Eagles SB in 2004, Belichick started two DL and 5 LBs. But he always had wrinkles that gave teams problems. In spite of the fact Miami had superior talent.

    That Dolphin D had quality talent - except at OLB - which was inconsistent. But the schemes offered no disguise or variation. Over the course of 16 games and by the time the playoffs rolled around it could be exploited intellectually. The Belichick system could not be so exploited bec it changed and adjusted to the opponent and it could often dictate to the opponent as a result of confusion and just enough uncertainty to slow down and ultimately derail the opposing offense. The two Super Bowls vs the Rams two high powered offenses serve just such a case in point. 20-17, 13-3. Miami’s vanilla and unchanging scheme could not consistently do that against the better opponents. Not late in the year as teams made adjustments. Hence, while the offense was not great the D always had major late season breakdowns - 38-3; 62-7; 27-0; 20-3 (there it was a complete physical demolition running for 226 and 37-22 top advantage). And other late regular season fiascos vs offenses that exploited them.
     
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  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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