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My Thoughts & Predictions on the 2021 Season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Sep 2, 2021.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Friends, I can't remember being more excited for the start of a season in the past decade. I truly believe that we have one of the top defenses in the league and I feel like the offense is going to make major strides this season. This is the first time in a very long time that we've had solid starters at basically all positions and quality backups on the depth chart, which is exactly what's required for an 18-week season.

    I don't think it's a secret that our main strength is the secondary- Howard, Jones, Needham and Rowe are all playing at all-pro levels. These studs are locking the field down in man coverage, which allows our front six or seven to fill gaps and get after the quarterback. This is how we led the league in turnovers last year and there's no reason that can't continue...we're just a team that can generate massive amounts of pressure and force QB's into bad situations. It will be fun watching this defense in 2021 and I do think they'll win a few games for us outright.

    In terms of pass rushers, I don't think we've found our future Cam Wake or Jason Taylor, but the scheme itself goes a long way to get someone a free rush at the quarterback. Our LB core is versatile enough to cover, rush or defend the edge and that forces offenses to get creative. The only way you beat Miami is getting the ball out quickly and hoping someone misses...which we don't do that often. So I believe we're in for a lot of low scoring opponents this season.

    On offense, the maturity of Tua is a massive step forward. I do not expect him to be elite this season and carry this team on his shoulders, but he shouldn't have to with solid starting field position from the D/Special Teams. The offensive line will be a work in progress but I'm not expecting the struggles we faced early last season, simply because we are packed with speed and the football is going to be coming out quickly to Waddle and Fuller on slants.

    Because of our defense, we can play "patient football" where it doesn't take a bomb to stay in the game, but I do think we'll hit a number of those as well. An average secondary can't cover Waddle, Fuller, Wilson, Parker, Williams, Grant, etc. in man coverage....and Gisecki adds yet another layer busting those seams. Each of these guys deserve a double team in certain situations but the defense just can't do that, so someone is going to pop open pretty often. I am also expecting a great year from Gaskin.
    • Week 1 | @ New England Patriots - 9/12- (4.25 PM EST)
    • Week 2 | vs Buffalo Bills - 9/19- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 3 | @ Las Vegas Raiders - 9/26 - (4:05 PM EST)
    • Week 4 | vs Indianapolis Colts - 10/3 - (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 5 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10/10 - (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 6 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars - 10/17- (9:30 AM EST) LONDON
    • Week 7 | vs Atlanta Falcons - 10/24- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 8 | @ Buffalo Bills - 10/31- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 9 | vs Houston Texans - 11/7- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 10 | vs Baltimore Ravens - 11/11- (8:20 PM EST) THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
    • Week 11 | @ New York Jets - 11/21- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 12 | vs Carolina Panthers- 11/28- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 13 | vs New York Giants - 12/05 - (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 14 | BYE
    • Week 15 | vs New York Jets - TBD
    • Week 16 | @ New Orleans Saints - 12/27 - (8:15 PM EST) MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
    • Week 17 | @ Tennessee Titans - 1/2- (1:00 PM EST)
    • Week 18 | vs New England Patriots - 1/9- (1:00 PM EST)
    Looking at the schedule, the first five weeks appear ROUGH- there's a chance last year's team goes 0-5. I do believe we'll come out and bully the Pats in NE though for a big win before a drag-out fight with the Bills in week two. These are two of the most important games of the season and I honestly think the Fins will be 2-0 in this stretch. We'll stomp the Pats and find a way to win against the Bills.

    The Raiders and Colts are both average teams that are coming off mini-rebuilds of their own, and I think our defense is going to shine in both these matchups. Both of these will end with W's to put the Dolphins 4-0 on the season...and the legacy begins.

    The Bucks are the real test though since they're probably the best team in the league. They started slow last season though and we generally give Brady a tough afternoon, so I think we have a shot in this contest. I'm calling it a loss but expecting a close game.

    Week 6 against a rebuild team in London with Lawrence at the helm...this should be an easy victory. But it's also a long travel game with a short week of practice, so I always struggle predicting these match-ups and we do it all over again seven days later against Atlanta. Should win both, but let's call this stretch a split and the Fins at 5-2 on the season.

    At Buffalo in week 8, after two long travel games on short weeks, and the odds are really slim for us to grab the victory here unless this team has already hit championship form. Fins 5-3 on the season.

    The next six games are Texans, Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, bye, Jets...and I honestly see five wins there (loss to the Ravens). Dolphins 10-4 on the season.

    The Saints and the Titans- last year's team would go 0-2 down this stretch and this is where our playoff dreams start to die. If we're the team I think we are, we win both of these ballgames heading into the playoffs. If injuries are piling up, maybe we split. I'm counting one loss here for 11-5 on the season.

    Last game of the year, Pats at home. Again, who are we at this point of the season? Talent wise, we should cruise to an easy victory and hopefully take the division with this win. Dolphins finish 12-5 on the season.

    Are my predictions realistic for this team in 2021? I honestly think they are because we have a team that's not relying on the QB to throw for 450 yards to keep us in the game. This is a legit team folks, and I honestly may have picked too conservatively given the talent we have spilling over from last year. Because that's the thing- there's really not a huge shakeup of talent this year...these will be our starters and role players for the next 3-5 seasons. I honestly feel like 12-13 wins is just about right for this squad.

    What could go wrong? My biggest fear is injuries in the secondary...if X or Jones goes down, our elite defense is just a pretty good defense. Keeping them healthy is crucial for us to be a dominant team. Tua is also a massive piece but I feel okay rolling with Brissett if needed, just because we have so much talent at receiver. The line is an obvious concern as well, but I don't think that will be a positive or negative this season...we'll have an average line that shines from time to time.

    Buckle up Fins fans, it's going to be one heck of a year.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
  2. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    If we come out and beat both NE and BUF the sky will be the limit.
     
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  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I am very confident about beating New England. I just think Miami is a much more talented team and Flores is a good coach, so that the coaching is closest than it has ever been.

    Buffalo I do not know. Until I see Miami be able to not give up a near perfect rating to a running quarterback, I will always think they will struggle against them.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Looking at the schedule, I see us splitting games with the Bills and the Patriots. I see us sweeping the Jets and with the remainder, I truly see us going 11-6 or 12-5…but we could lose 2 or 3 of our last games.

    Going into the playoffs on a losing streak never bodes well for any team
     
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  5. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    SO Cal
    16-0
    Sorry - 17-0
     
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  6. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    10-7 or 11-6 I think is doable.
     
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  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    We absolutely need to start at least 2-3. If we can do that, then there's a path to 4-4. Get there, and we can think about 10-7.

    But it isn't going to be easy.

    @ New England
    Buffalo
    @ Las Vegas
    Indianapolis
    @ Tampa Bay

    Four of those teams could arguably have top ten defenses this season. We are almost certainly heavy under dogs with good reason vs Buffalo and Tampa. I honestly think that Week 1 is a must win, as hard as that is to stomach.

    I predict that we'll be 1-1 after 2 games, 2-2 after four, 3-3 after six, 4-4 after eight, and 5-5 after ten. Then we win the four games after that to put ourselves in position to make the playoffs based off of what happens during the final three weeks.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well I'm looking forward to this season for sure. Looking to see if Tua is for real, confirmation that Flores is for real, and finally putting together 2 consecutive winning seasons since.. (let this settle in).. 2002-2003!! It's been almost 2 decades since we had 2 consecutive winning seasons! Talk about pathetic.

    I think we do it this time. Vegas thinks so too. They're at 9.5 wins right now, and the standard deviation for Vegas is 2, which means 67% of the time the actual wins are +-2 from predicted, so rounding a bit we can expect 70% probability we'll win 7-12 games. Not bad really.

    One thing though. The correlation in win% from the previous season to the current season is generally quite low in the NFL, with only about 10% in the variation in win% on average explained by looking at previous season win% since the salary cap in 1994. What that means is that fans often think strong teams from the previous season will remain strong and weak teams will remain weak far more often than it actually occurs. So keep that in mind when you look at that schedule. It's probably not as tough out of the gate as it seems.
     
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  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    My belief in watching a lot of football over the years is there isn't much difference between a 6 win team and a 10 win team. A lot of time it is just luck of the bounce.
     
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  10. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    That week 2 game against Buffalo is going to be huge. That will be a very revealing game in my opinion. We were able to keep it close against the good teams we played last year, but they blew our doors off in pretty much both games. The last game was absolutely horrible. In my opinion that week 2 game is the most important game on the schedule. If we can beat them after getting smacked around the way we did last year, it's going to be huge for this team the rest of the year. Win the first two games of the season and I think the sky will be the limit.
     
  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I certainly agree that that can be true for some teams, no doubt. Last season, I felt that the Fins were a 6-win club that made it to 10 for a variety of reasons.

    But I also think that you can subjectively point to a 10-win quality team and a 6-win quality team a lot of the time too, regardless of how many wins they end up with. The Fins have had a lot of 10-win teams that only won 7 games due to poor coaching and bad luck, for example.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Last year, I felt like we had a championship defense that could have taken us deep in the playoffs. However, Tua wasn't ready, the line took a good 5 or 6 weeks to develop, X and Jones were out multiple games and by season's end, we had lost all our starting and 2nd string skill players on offense. It was a very strange year.

    This season, I think the defense is just as talented and the offense is packed with misdirection and a very hungry QB. I honestly think our offense could be above average in scoring and if they really click, the sky is truly the limit. Maybe I'm a total homer, but I see this as a championship team if Tua really has the goods.
     
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  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Yeah, I wasn't anywhere near that high on the defense last season. I know that it made a lot of people happy the way that they played, but take away a handful of key turnovers - most of them by X - and it doesn't look nearly as impressive, and the team is a lot close to 6 wins than 10.

    They were ranked 20th in yards allowed last year, and gave up over 400 six different times from Week 8 onward. I need to see that tighten up a whole lot before I'll feel really comfortable. Fingers crossed that they can move from 20th to about 15th this year, but I still worry about the run defense, especially after they cut McKinney. And I really hope that they can get more pressure without needing to blitz. Its a high risk strategy.
     
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  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I agree. Miami's Dolphins defense was good at the most important things of stopping people on third down and getting turnovers. It is what they are built on, and unless someone just finds a way to dismantle the scheme, they should be fine with another year under their belt.

    I think people put too much emphasis on yards when it comes to defense, and as long as they tighten things up a little, with the improvement in the secondary, I think the defense is going to be really good if not great.

    I love the offense and big play potential, which should open up the shorter routes.

    Plus finally Miami looks to have an offense that tries to get people open.

    It will, of course, take a few things clicking together, but I am very excited for this year. Especially since Miami is a very well-coached and disciplined football team.
     
  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    So much of this season is going to come down to four things, I think:
    1. Tua. If he proves to be the guy many of us hope he is then we're going to be excited. If he proves to be too flawed it's going to be agony.
    2. The run game. Many commentators believe that Miami hope to pass to establish the run. I'm no expert so I'll reserve judgement but it seems to me that it would be more reliable the other way around. If we can't run the ball we're going to have issues. I'm not expecting world-beating play here, just average play at least.
    3. The OL. We need this young line to be at least average too. The run game especially will suffer here if the OL is poor, and then of course, the pass game.
    4. Run defense. I am so very, very tired of seeing Miami defenders miss tackles allowing runners to get first downs and more. If we can't stop the run it's going to be uncomfortable. Can you imagine if we had a tough run D forcing teams to pass into our secondary? It would be the stuff of dreams. If we don't improve we're going to have to hope that the bend-but-don't-break D from last year continues to be very effective.

    The last two all old news. Issues that the Dolphins have not been able to overcome. I will be overjoyed when at last the Dolphins can establish better performance here and a more balanced team.

    With regards Tua, here's a short video breakdown from some random guy on Youtube explaining what he sees and why he believes Tua will have a good year:



    Whatever else, I will say that Tua does look a lot better in general. Movement, confidence, decision making. Let's hope this is just the beginning!
     

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