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Week 17 Dolphins @ Titans

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 29, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Last edited: Jan 1, 2022
  2. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Barry's dropping science:

    What Dolphins must keep telling themselves when they watch Tua and Tannehill on Sunday

    BY BARRY JACKSON UPDATED DECEMBER 31, 2021 4:27 PM

    When the Dolphins watch Ryan Tannehill operate the Tennessee Titans offense on Sunday, we can only hope that Dolphins general manager Chris Grier will be thinking:

    “We cannot allow this to happen to Tua.”

    Tannehill — the Dolphins’ seven-year quarterback lab project who persevered through several good moments, a bunch of disappointing ones, 248 sacks, and not a single playoff win — is a reminder of what happens when you surround a skilled first-round quarterback with an uneven supporting cast.

    Credit the Dolphins for drafting Jaylen Waddle. But aside from lost cause Will Fuller, that’s pretty much the extent of the clearly above average weapons added to the roster since drafting Tagovailoa. To gain an appreciation for how little the Dolphins have done to help Tagovailoa, consider:
    • They entered the week last in pass block win rate (45 percent).
    • Their running backs are averaging 3.4 yards per carry, worst in the league.
    • They entered the week tied for sixth in most passes dropped with 20.
    • They entered the week 25th in yards after catch.
    The case could be made that Tagovailoa has been given less support than Tannehill, who — during times of his career — had an elite center in Mike Pouncey, a very good left tackle in Jake Long (one year) and Branden Albert (three) and Laremy Tunsil (two), Pro Bowl receivers in Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace and decent backs in Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake.

    And anyone would still say that the Dolphins didn’t do enough to support Tannehill because the offensive line (except perhaps one season) always had holes and Miami never gave him an elite power running back — anybody close in quality to Derrick Henry — who could make his job easier. Ajayi was great for half a season, and that was it.

    Tagovailoa, conversely, hasn’t had a single former Pro Bowler alongside him on offense except Phillip Lindsay, who has played two games in his Dolphins career.

    While owner Stephen Ross should be encouraged that Grier has hit on several draft picks, he should be alarmed that this front office has never been able to solve the offensive line or find an elite back, the two ingredients that were mostly missing for Tannehill and are vital for Tagovailoa’s long-term success.

    What happened when the Titans surrounded Tannehill with those two components?

    He instantly morphed from decent to very good. In his first two seasons with Tennessee — playing with Henry and the best offensive line of his career - he produced passer ratings of 117.5 and 106.5, by far the best of his career, along with 55 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

    That compares with an 87 passer rating in six years in Miami.

    Tannehill was sacked an average of 27.5 times per season in his first two years in Tennessee, compared with 41.3 per season in his six seasons in Miami.

    Yes, there are major differences between the two: Tannehill has the stronger arm; Tagovailoa has far better pocket presence, is more accurate and is more nimble avoiding sacks.

    But the point is the same: Surround Tagovailoa with the type of supporting cast that Tannehill had in his first two years in Tennessee, and it’s not unreasonable to expect a jump from pretty good to very good.

    And remember, Tagovailoa now (94.0 passer rating/16th best in league) is as good or better than Tannehill ever was in a full season in Miami; his higher passer rating in six seasons here was 93.5.

    And if Grier needs any reminder, he can look at what’s happened to Tannehill this season amid injuries to 2020 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Henry (who has missed seven games with a broken foot and is out Sunday against Miami) and three-time Pro Bowl tackle Taylor Lewan (who missed four games with a head injury and is now back off the COVID list) and 2020 Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown (who missed three games recently with a chest injury).

    In the seven games without Henry, Tannehill has five touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 69.9 passer rating — compared to a 111 rating with Henry in the lineup in 2019 and 2020.

    So if Tannehill can make such a jump with an elite back and strong offensive line, imagine what Tagovailoa could do.

    Because of the lack of support, “you play in such a defensive posture if you’re Tua,” ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said. “I can’t hold the ball. I can’t push it downfield. It has to get out of my hands.”

    And as ESPN’s Steve Young said Monday: “I don’t know what he can become and I don’t think we’re going to find out. I think we’re going to need a whole other year and some more support.”

    So if the Dolphins opt to continue with Tagovailoa instead of trading for Deshaun Watson, the mission for Grier is simple: Find two very good starting offensive linemen in free agency (New Orleans’ left tackle Terron Armstead would be a start) and acquire a clear-cut workhorse No. 1 back, preferably a blue chip draft prospect who can wear down defenses.

    “There’s not an elite guy such as Ezekiel Elliott or Christian McCaffrey who will go in the top 10, which means teams should wait until Round 2 to get better value,” ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said of the running back talent in April’s NFL Draft.

    “There could be six backs who get second-round grades from me, however. Breece Hall [Iowa State], Kenneth Walker III [Michigan State] and Isaiah Spiller [Texas A&M] top my rankings.”

    Ross’ message to Grier should be this: Don’t come home from the draft without one of those players, or another skilled back on Day 2 of the draft. (Miami has the 49ers’ first-round pick, its own second-round pick and the 49ers’ third-rounder.)

    And if the Dolphins have any doubt about what they need to do for Tagovailoa, watch more tape of Tannehill to remind themselves what the Titans did for Tannehill and the Dolphins’ didn’t.

    THIS AND THAT
    • Not a single Dolphins player was listed on the final injury report, meaning everyone on the 53-man roster will be available on Sunday. As expected, receiver Albert Wilson and guard Solomon Kindley were activated from the COVID-19 list. The Dolphins must decide by 4 p.m. Saturday whether to activate defensive lineman Adam Butler, safety Brandon Jones, receiver Preston Williams or defensive tackle John Jenkins. That would keep alive the possibility of any of them playing on Sunday if they clear protocols on Sunday morning, which requires exhibiting no symptoms of the virus.
    • The Titans listed defensive end Larrell Murchison and linebacker Derick Roberson as questionable for Sunday’s game.

    Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/...y-jackson/article256633216.html#storylink=cpy
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Playing the odds it's probably better to do it the other way: pick OL high in the draft and get your RB in FA, unless there's a great RB in round 1. The probability of picking a consistent starter at OL is very high in the first two rounds (83% and 70% for rounds 1 and 2 according to this: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round), while the probability of picking a consistent starter at RB falls tremendously in round 2 (from 58% in round 1 to 25% in round 2).

    We need OL, RB and WR in this draft, and I would be really happy if we spent a decent portion of that huge cap space on signing a top WR like Adams, Robinson or Godwin. Paired with Waddle that is a scary WR set. We should still have enough to get a decent RB in FA, then pick another RB in the mid-rounds and spend our top picks on OL.
     
  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Seriously, if we go into the offseason with $74 million in cap space and don't manage to shore up the OL AND RB rooms, Grier needs to brush up on his burger flipping skills. I know we're going to need to resign/replace a lot of players, but that's still a heckuva lot of space for a team that was competing for a playoff spot the previous season. If we trade into $40 million worth of DeShaun Watson, the opportunity cost is too high for me because we'd still have more than $34 million worth of holes to fill. Especially when (IMO) QB isn't presently a position of need.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Absolutely, and even though Tua isn't a finished product yet (or at least he better not be!) he's shown more than enough to warrant at least one more year with all our resources devoted towards helping get the best out of him. I will be VERY unhappy if we trade for Watson after seeing Tua in year 2 play statistically slightly above average. That's exactly what I wanted to see and that's exactly what we got. Next year will be even better, and some of that improvement needs to come from a better surrounding cast, or Grier is not up for the job.
     
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  6. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    If they can't run on us, Tannehole is in trouble and I can't wait to see him eat grass. Also, I hope Flores shows his team that we're still not getting due respect being underdogs(slight) according to the bookies.

    But I suppose we don't deserve any respect, as Tennessee will be the hardest team we've faced, and I wish Henry was suiting up.

    As much as I'm enjoying the run. Fins are champion chokers.

    I think most Fin Fans would say something to the tune of "Welp, at least they gave us a season worth watching." Not me, I'm more of the "Thanks for getting my hopes up for nothing (yet again.)"

    Anyway, Lets GO PHINS. Can we finally show that we are clutch, instead of chokers.. please? Be a nice change of pace. lol.
     
  7. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    I haven't been this excited about a game in YEARS! PHINS UP!

    Women of the house are already planning their escape, soft objects to throw strategically placed, plenty of "medication" available. I'm so ready! Sorry Tannehill, loved you then but I really hope X man steals your lunch money and Holland makes your wife cry. Ogbah bats your balls like my cat does and you spend the whole game on the bench, crying like Marcia Brady cuz we beat your ***. I know you won't do that last bit cuz you aren't a ***** like Marcia but all the rest.

    SUCK IT TIT'SANS
     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Winter weather advisory for Nashville. Rain, snow and ice in the forecast. We need to unleash Duke "Wrecking Ball" Johnson and pound the ball all day long. If we don't adapt to this weather, we're going to lose. That ball and field are going to get slippery and is seriously going to affect the passing game.
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I hope to God you're right!!!
     
  10. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts are that if we have to rely on the running game to win, then we're screwed. Tua is going to have to have a monster game for us to win
     
  11. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I'm in Tennessee right now. It's....60 degrees here. It's been 75 for the last two weeks. It's supposed to be a little bit cooler today in Nasheville...Like...40 degrees, but I highly doubt we'll see big snow storms and ice flying through the air. People are making this a little bit more dramatic here then it really needs to be. The earth here isn't going to become a sheet of glass! It may rain a bit around 4 pm when the game is over or close to it.
    Then again, I could be totally wrong about this, but I just don't see it based off of what I have read. Either way, people are flocking to the stores around here to buy mass amounts of bread, milk, and toilet paper in desperate attempts to prepare for the end of times. One would assume that an impending doom apocalypse will be reaching Tennessee today and everyone must batten down the hatch and prepare themselves for the storm of the century! People are buying bullets for their guns! The gas stations will suddenly have a fuel shortage due to people filling 55 gallon drums full of unleaded! The blizzard of 22 is upon us! Meanwhile, I'm going to go outside and clean up the front yard and maybe the family van which has such a variety of misc food items thrown throughout it, that it may possible equate to a four course meal. All the windows in the house are currently open as well. I guess I better close those due to this epic ice storm Tennessee is going to get.
    Let me tell you about the weather here. I've been a resident here for 20 years. I moved from Wisconsin and had previously lived in Maine. Those are winters! Those places have WINTER! Miserably, snow ridden, icy road winters! In Tennessee people panic if it's going to rain. They close schools if the ground gets peppered with a little bit of snow in the morning. Speaking of winter mornings here. You can wake up at six AM in January to it being a frigid 29 degrees (burrrrrr), only to have the temperate rise to 79 degrees by 1 pm. I'm not complaining, I'm just saying that's how it works here.
    As far as the game goes, Tua is going to be just fine as long as he quits throwing interceptions. He's gotten away with the last two weeks, but the Titans are nothing to get cute against. The weather here is the LEAST of my concerns. I'm more worried about Kelvin Byard and the Titans secondary.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2022
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  12. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    If this team can't play in a little bad weather, then they are not a playoff team.
     
  13. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. I think in general people like to use the weather as more of an excuse then actually is. My job...how I make my income is based off of me working outside 5-6 days a week. Yeah, a torrential downpour can ruin my day. The rare case of a crippling blizzard can slow things down, but I don't see what Tennessee is expecting today to be a problem.....at all.
     
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  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I agree he deserves another year. And if he flames out, between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, the 2023 class is already going to have excellent prospects to replace him.
     
  15. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Would love to see a great game from Tua (the rest of our team can be great too) today, let’s go Phins!!!
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I am so excited for this game! Doing everything I can think of to kill time and the clock is barely moving, LOL.
     
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  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Miami may not be a playoff team, they are marginal at the moment, with little room for error. Part of that error could be dealing with bad weather, that's just how it is with this team.

    I look forward to Buffalo building that dome stadium. It will help Miami avoid a cold weather game every year. Even the Bills are not built for cold weather games with the way they lean to the passing attack.
     
  18. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Me, looking at the clock right now:
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Nashville isn't exactly located in the frozen tundra. Their players will get no specific advantage from inclement weather at home. Besides, players on both teams played in colleges that end their seasons with much worse weather than what's forecast today. If we get beat, weather will be an excuse, not a reason for the loss.
     
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  20. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    That's what I was kind of implying. It's not gonna be green Bay in January. If they can't play in this weather then they better hang it up.
     
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  21. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    So the game isn't on where I live and no one feels like doing anything today so I'm at a bar by myself. I'm probably gonna end up getting shîtwrecked today. So if I start telling you guys that I love you, you'll know why
     
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  22. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Phins 20 Titans 17
     
  23. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I wanna see more of that
     
  24. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Here we go
     
  25. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I have to watch the game via... alternative means, myself. It's the only way I can watch the games.
     
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  26. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Duuuke!
     
  27. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Austin Jackson …
     
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  28. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Ugh.....
     
  29. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    And the playcalling tumbles
     
  30. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    They were ready for the give to Waddle. Not enough blocks to give him a hole.
     
  31. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Got to throw it or check it down to the wide open RB there. Can’t take that sack with all that time to throw
     
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  32. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of time in the pocket. Tua's got to get rid of it there.
     
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  33. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Terrible punt too
     
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  34. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Sloppy start, let’s get it going guys a quick 3 and out pls.
     
  35. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    This is where we find out if the defense is actually legit
     
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  36. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Like what I’m seeing from Tannehill.
     
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  37. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    So far so good
     
  38. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    X-Man. May have been riding him, but I'm okay with no flag.
     
  39. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    We had the opportunity to pin them deep and we get that duck…
     
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  40. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    We got flags for weaker stuff.
     
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