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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I'm not sold on Tua, but you're post is full of hyperbole. I think Burrow is the real deal. However, I doubt he would do much better than Tua on this team.

    Cincy's oline is about average..maybe slighter worse. The Dolphins' oline is historically bad and no other line has allowed more QB pressures than them...ever. And even Brady doesn't win "no matter what" and he throws 5 yard outs and slants all game long his entire career.

    Tua is accurate enough, smart enough, and disciplined enough to be a good QB in this league. He, like every QB not named Marino or Rodgers and a very select few others, needs a little help.
     
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  2. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Whatever you think of tua, flo, grier et al…

    i would like to think it is clear to most if not all our biggest impediment is in the owner’s box.
     
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  3. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    That's inarguable. Ross is one of the worst owners in football. Top 5 at least.
     
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  4. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Id say hes one of the worst owners in sports because he thinks he knows enough to meddle, meddles, then denies meddling publicly. Its so transparent
     
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  5. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    I also think having marino spoiled this fanbase irreparably and they think having a top 3 qb is the only way to win. Its not.
    For every team with a mahomes or brady, theres an eagles or giants team that got hot with above average qb play. Look at denver with peyton. He was a corpse.
     
  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You obviously didn’t read what I wrote. I did not ignore nor discount the importance of the quarterback but like so many of you who live in a world of stat sheets, you folks continuously and consistently discount the importance of the TEAM for one position. You do it all of the time and it gets annoying, especially when i know you’re not stupid. You all point to all of these “elite” quarterbacks and for some flipping reason, seem to ignore…

    Brady got his start with a solid proven playoff team in New England after Bledsoe went down

    Rodgers got his start behind a solid playoff team in Green Bay after sitting behind Favre

    Mahomes got his start his second year with a solid playoff team in Kansas City

    I can go on and on and on and on but it won’t register to folks like you. It’s a football TEAM…a quarterback doesn’t do it all by himself. If he has a solid TEAM, then he’s going to be set up for success…like was Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes et al. But if their team is terrible, then they’re going to struggle and you’re going to lump them into categories of average to mediocre and decry they’ll never win.

    No, I don’t discount the importance of the quarterback one bit but folks like you sure put more importance on the quarterback while completely disregarding the other 10 positions on offense, then want to lay the blame solely at the feet of the quarterback for not winning when he’s playing with pure trash on the field…as well as trash coaches in the press box calling stupid gimmick offensive plays
     
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  7. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Texans won 4 games last year. There are limits to what a great QB can carry. Under no circumstances can you put him behind this offensive line as it stands.

    At a minimum his risk of injury would be too great.
     
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  8. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I still think we can win with Tua, but he needs to get comfortable with a glove for bad weather games. Can't have the ball coming out like that.

    To the other points, 1 person does not win Super Bowls by himself. If they did we would have won a pile of them while Marino was here. How many guys on the offense would you really keep (and for the sake of this lets assume Tua is a given), I like Duke because he runs harder than any other back on the team and seems to have good vision. Outside of Hunt and maybe Eichenberg, if you can transition him to the right, There is not a single Offensive lineman worth a darn on this roster. The receiver room needs players that wont make it look like a triage for a MASH unit and that leaves Waddle, Hollins (the guy is always ready and available and somehow comes up with big catches) and I cant believe I'm saying it, Isiah Ford. I am done with guys like Parker and Williams who despite their ability can't stay on the darn field. Despite Gesicki's limitation in pass blocking I think you keep him, and Smythe is a good #2 TE. So what is that 9 guys?

    Now the big question is can Brian Flores improve the coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball? I have no idea what the game plan was supposed to be against the Titans. Nothing I saw made much sense - On a sloppy rainy sleeting day we're gonna all of a sudden start throwing deep? Duke Johnson rips off a few good runs, I think he averaged around 7 yards per carry - could be mistaken about that, and is very effective and we just stop giving him the ball? Then we're gonna throw in a few trick plays - one that involves having Gesicki throw a freaking Pass? What the heck are they thinking? That's a dangerous play in good field conditions but when it's wet and continuing to rain most all of the game it's downright negligent.

    So we need a real offensive coordinator and a competent Offensive Line coach at a minimum. The problem is Flo hasn't shown any ability to hire a competent staff on the offensive side of the ball and has managed to have a different OC in each of his three years. His inability to get anything right with the offense is going to be his downfall.

    I'll add on the defense we sorely need upgrades at linebacker, inside in particular.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'll just add that it's plainly obvious many here have never played the game at any level, and that makes a huge difference in their ability to evaluate. It's easy to watch sports on TV and assume what you're seeing is so easy- you just swing the bat, throw the pass, kick the ball, shoot the basket, etc. But in real life, we're talking about making decisions in fractions of a second and executing at the highest possible levels.

    For instance, one of the most impressive players on our roster is Mack Hollins, but many of you would have no idea why. The details in football matter since they tell the story within the story.
     
  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Focusing on him being able to clear his legal matters as a transition to the Dolphins is incredibly short-sighted. We are dealing with a serial offender here. If he settles, is that part of his life over forever? If you think the answer is "yes," you have to be 100% right. What happens if you wake up with a disaster on your hands after you give up a king's ransom? I literally think that being wrong would destroy the franchise.

    Hard pass.
     
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  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    In a way, all this focus on Tua illustrates the point of the thread in the first place.
    The primary issues the Dolphins have is other than the QB. That's the issue we should be looking at. But of course, it's complicated, there are overlapping issues, and it's easier just to focus on the one big position of QB.

    The Dolphins have had recurring issues for years. Before Tua, during Tua, and if they don't fix them, after Tua as well. Nothing will change, everything will stay the same. You want a good Dolphins team? The problem isn't the QB.

    Our attention, as Dolphins fans, should be on the other issues, not the QB. Not until we've resolved, or greatly improved upon, the problems that will hinder any QB we have old or new. Or else we'll still be going on about whatever QB we have in ten years time.
     
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  12. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Why can't I like this more than once?
     
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  13. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    You could do worse and have Shad Khan as your owner...
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Again, we just lost to the Titans on a day where Tannehill threw 18 total passes for 120 yards. Tua had double the passing yards...so it should be plainly obvious that passing did not make/break the game. There was clearly other factors involved.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I already showed you what his ratings were in 8 of those 12 losses. Those were elite level ratings. Also, in 2018 he was sacked a league leading 62 times and still produced a 103.1 rating. Watson is one of those rare QBs that does NOT need even a decent OL. He's shown that already, so yes if we get Watson you ignore the OL and get yourself a good RB and another good WR. It's one of the advantages of getting a QB like that. It's no different than getting Wilson. You can ignore the OL with him too.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh I read what you wrote I repeat the reply again. You repeatedly ignore the importance of the QB. You started this discussion by asking whether we'd rather have a QB that lights up the stat boards or whether we'd rather have a team that consistently vies for the SB.

    I pointed out the most obvious response to that: those are basically one and the same. Like I said, QBs that are great tend to be on teams that consistently make the playoffs etc. I pointed out that the opposite is really hard to even list: teams that consistently make the playoffs that do NOT have a great QB. How many can you list?

    You repeatedly ignore the importance of the QB. You keep telling us you'd be fine with a solid team having just an average QB, while I keep reminding you that teams rarely win the SB without a great QB or without one that plays great that year.

    When you stop suggesting we'd be fine without a great QB THEN I'll finally believe something got through to you. The probabilities of winning the SB are far too low without a great QB. And btw.. you're the one that doesn't read what I write. Why keep saying the team matters when for years I've said the same too?
     
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  17. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    This exactly. He's not going to stop being a creep especially in South Beach where there is some of the most beautiful women in the world.

    Build around Tua and the tons of resources they have going into the off-season and give him another year. But, it's playoffs or bust.
     
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  18. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Him being able to play well doesn't mean its a good idea. Him getting sacked 62 times is asking for disaster. RB also needs a line. They aren't winning a SB with this line and that should be goal not losing in the wild card round.

    If you want to argue they don't have to have an elite line that is one thing but right now they have an historically bad line.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is a good way to get him to blow out his knee again
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's not what he's saying AT ALL! And your math proves it if you'd look at this from a different viewpoint.

    Just look at our boy Tannehill. Average to slightly above average in Miami, then elite for two seasons in Tennessee. Yet his star RB gets hurt and his stats show he's below average this year. So which is "the truth"? Your stats say he's average, below average and elite...all within a 4-year span. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

    The point you're missing is that RT (or any QB) is affected by their surroundings. If Tua is a 90 QB rating on this team, he'd be a 100+ QB rating behind a better one. It is not solely the QB himself being insanely elite and out-performing everyone else despite his team around him....it's the entire team doing their job.

    I mean, how hard is it to believe that a QB with 3 seconds to throw will usually do better than a QB with 1.5 seconds to throw?
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    We don't have infinite resources. Sure if you can improve every position do so. But if you have to prioritize you prioritize RB and WR with Watson. You'll get far more that way than prioritizing OL.
     
  22. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    I would rather hope Watson elevates the WR position because he is so good and would rather stick with scrap heap RBs and hope they are elevated by a good line which they would be.

    Protecting the QB is what its all about. Ask the teams who just played in the SB.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That IS what he's been saying for 3 years straight. Don't look at one post and ignore 3 years of consistent posting. And not one person believes a QB is not affected by his surroundings. That's a complete strawman.

    To your point though, over longer periods of time (e.g., 10+ years) it's VERY hard for an average QB to luck into being on a great team for the entire duration. You're not going to get Tannehill to produce like in 2019 or 2020 for 10 years straight even if we assume (let's say) that his "true" ability is around average. Over longer periods of time the "true" ability of the QB shows up in era-adjusted passer rating (i.e., z-scores). You can see that with the very high correlation between who you think is great and those z-scores (I've shown that before).
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I can see the argument about Watson elevating the WR position. However, I think it's clear he needs a good RB. We saw very clearly that Watson can't overcome lots of 3rd and short, kind of like Marino having the same issue. But it is clear he can overcome a bad OL. And note I showed earlier that we (the Dolphins) have a good run blocking line but a bad running game, so you do need a good RB.

    And yes most teams need to protect the QB, but not all. Wilson won the SB with a bad OL. Watson should be similar in that respect.
     
  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Seattle had a bottom tier passing offense then too
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nope, they were one of the best: Wilson had a 101.2 rating when league average was 86.0. And note that passing efficiency stats are what correlate with winning, not pass volume stats in case you're looking at those.
     
  27. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Because he wasn't asked to do much because they had an all time caliber defense. Miami can't replicate that formula.
     
  28. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Its still a cost benefit analysis. Tua is a mid tier QB. How many more wins does an elite QB get you from that spot vs if we take the draft and capspace we would need to invest and apply it throughout the roster to glaring needs like OL, RB, P, K, WR3 and on and on
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's VERY hard to replicate that #1 defense by points allowed for 4 years in a row. No other team in NFL history ever did that. But there are many ways to win the SB. What's clear is that Seattle's offense was not a liability but an asset. It was #8 in points scored, and that's with a great QB with a bad OL. That last part can be replicated with Watson + good RB. Note that Seattle did have a very good RB.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah that's why I'm ambivalent on Watson. I'd be fine acquiring him and also fine going with Tua for one more prove-it year. It's really bad the QB issue wasn't solved with certainty a few years ago.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know you've been saying it, but for some reason you're not applying it to what's right in front of you.

    It's not that RT can't overcome adversity or difficult circumstances, it that statistics do not care about circumstances at all. It's just an empty metric that considers all things equal, even though they never are. I would argue that a QB's surroundings play just as much into their performance as your standard measurements in passer rating (completions, attempts, TDs, picks, etc).

    Tua has almost no supporting cast, therefore his quarterback rating is essentially useless. All it shows you is what he can do in a dysfunctional offense as he's scrambling and releasing the ball as quickly as possible- which is not what the position is designed to be measured by. It will not tell you what he'd do in a competent offense because we've never once seen it.

    I'm not trying to make a case for or against Tua, RT, etc. My only point is that QB rating is a product of your environment, not just your natural, innate talent. Nobody here is saying that a top-tier QB isn't necessary...they're saying that you can't just keep shuffling QBs without complimentary pieces around him and expect to have a realistic evaluation.

    For Tua to be league-average in this offense...that likely means he's an above average talent. But we won't know until he can actually spend some time in the pocket and throw to competent receivers.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No one knows how much of passer rating is due to the surroundings, but when you see the massive change in fortunes of an offense when they change QBs (from bad or average to great, or vice versa) and see that change correlate so highly with career passer rating of the QBs, it's hard to argue passer rating isn't a good measure of actual QB ability, with large sample size of course.

    Just look at what happened to Denver's offense when it got Peyton Manning. For years they were middle or bottom tier in points scored then suddenly they are #2, #1 and #2 in points scored. That correlates with passer rating too, going from average with Orton and below average with Tebow to top 2 twice and top 4 once in passer rating with Manning.

    Nothing else explains that change than Manning, and passer rating captured that change. Same thing with tons of other examples. So it's clearly not an "empty" metric, not only because of how well it captures pre- vs. post-performance of the offense when the main change was at QB (with different career ratings), but also because it tends to correlate well to who people think are the best QBs, after a long career. So it's clearly capturing QB ability to a good degree.
     
  33. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    I think tua’s main issue was getting drafted to a team that idolizes marino. All of us fans grew up watching the big cannon arm qb. Even if herbert was just an average qb fans here would be happier with him on the team just because he fits that mold. It might be a sub conscience thing but the bias in what this fan base wants at qb is pretty clear imo. I think even if we had the greatest dink and dunker of all time the fan base would still complain.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There was a lot that changed with Manning- the route trees, the play calling, the blocking assignments...and for that matter, the team chemistry, what types of players were drafted/signed, etc. You're mostly right in this case since Manning was one of the greatest NFL minds ever PLUS he was a great QB.

    But you can also break that down to regular substitutions as well. How did Brissett almost connect with a wide-open Waddle deep? Because #1, the opposing team didn't prep for Brissett, #2, he's almost always brought in on 3rd and 1 to run the football, and #3, the defender broke off his route for just a fraction of a second due to the play action. All these things play a factor above and beyond just the QB- it's nowhere near as black and white as you make it out to be.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You're the one that made it black and white saying passer rating was an "empty" metric. It's clearly not. It captures QB ability to a good degree. I pointed out high correlations to things that suggest QB ability was the main difference. That's not "black and white" since correlations measure the degree of similarity between two things and that can range from 0 to 1 (and all values in-between).
     
  36. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    What is hyperbole? Cincinnatis o-line is ranked in the bottom third in the league. Burrow is the most sacked qb in the league this year. How is burrow able to excel with a horrible o-line? How did Herbert kill it last year with the worst O-line in the league? Why does tua need everything to be perfect around him for him to excel?
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2022
  37. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Burrow has a lot better weapons than we do, his receiving corps is probably top 3 in the NFL. Tee higgins and chase are a nightmare for any secondary. And they got possibly the most complete running back in the NFL. And Burrow’s talent as a thrower and leader is off the charts.

    If you put tua in the bengals i dont think he can produce what burrow is able to do. Hed probably be on IR.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I said it's empty in the context that it's a basic snapshot of a very complex game. It does not measure accuracy (ball placement), pressure, time to throw, separation of the receiver, tipped/blocked passes, and so many other things that could determine whether a QB had a good or bad day.

    As a general starting point, QB Rating is great. But it's not the end all, be all of which quarterbacks are helping their teams win.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I've never used passer rating in any other way. So this was a circular discussion.
     
  40. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You get it…Brad doesn’t
     
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