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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I don't want to get fully sucked into another Miami Dolphins QB debate. I'm still worn out over trying to convince homers that John Beck and Chad Henne were below average NFL QBs. History proved me right on that. I liked Tannehill, and thought he was a slightly better than average NFL QB but not great. I think that still holds true. I'm no expert, but I think Tua pretty much sucks. I think a good barometer is to listen to what fans of other NFL teams think about a QB. I was in a bar watching the Titans game and heard a lot of fans of many other teams giggling and guffawing at how bad a pass Tua throws. I've heard similar commentary (if you can call it that) watching other games. I think he's nothing more than a good enough QB to win a game when the defense is playing great and the team has a lead. That's not good enough in the NFL in my humble opinion. You need a QB that can help win you the game, not just not lose the game. If Grier doesn't go into this offseason looking to upgrade the QB position, this team will remain stuck in the same mediocre pit of damnation it's been in since Marino retired.
     
  2. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    I refuse to believe anyone liked John Beck

    Keep in mind the only way to meaningfully upgrade is sending off all their picks and cap space for Watson/Wilson/Rodgers and its possible only Watson is an option and that could disappear as well. Putting more talent around Tua with one eye on the 2023 draft is not the worst result.

    Bottom line is be careful what you wish for with upgrading or we will get stuck with Jimmy G or Baker.
     
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  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Please pay particular attention at 1:41 to about 2:00 then pause.


    If you did what I asked, everything that I have been beating the drum over for YEARS is right there.

    Marino was set up for success offensively. Every other quarterback this team has fielded has not. They’ve been drafted, signed via FA, given the ball and told to be Marino…in essence.

    Until this most basic truth is accepted and the team itself is fixed, it doesn’t matter who’s under center…and if you don’t believe that then you don’t know football
     
  4. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    There was a very significant population on this board who LOVED John Beck! If you search hard enough you can find all the evidence you need. They cherry picked his 7 good plays and even made a YouTube highlight video...:chuckle::chuckle:. Chad Henne at least had a handful of good games for people to justify their homerism.

    I get what you're saying. Waiting to upgrade is an option as long as the front office acknowledges the probably need to upgrade. I won't pretend to know anything about college prospects but I've heard it's not pretty. I would love it if they went after any of the first 3 potential free agents you mentioned even if it blew up in their face. At least it would be interesting!
     
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  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Thank this man 1000 times!

    I actually liked beck. Haha! ..but that was more just hope. I was at the point in my fandom when I had hope for anyone the Phins signed. However, those days are long gone for me.
     
  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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  7. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I get what you're saying but Marino would have been great no matter what. He had "IT". No one we've had since him has had "it". Marino carried some of those dolphins teams. They never had a good running back while he played and after 84 or 85, the defense sucked utill 96 or so. Yet he always was great. He may not have won a Super Bowl but he was a Great QB. Tua is not that. If we had marino on this team, this year, we win 12 games and are in the playoffs.
     
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  8. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I think most tua fans are like you used to be, they are just hoping. I was like that as well. I thought Jay fiedler was gonna win us a Super Bowl. It was just hope
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2022
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  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Why do you have to divide the fanbase like that? You keep trying to go the political route with this, with a "you do or you don't" type of stance and it's just close minded. I don't give a **** if you like Tua or not, nor do I care about you pushing your agenda just because you want to be right. You were awfully quiet when we were winning and he was playing well. In all fairness, I think we all were. It just seems like you personally group this one way or the other and that's just really dumb on your part. I throw **** on Tua when he plays bad just as much as I praise him when he plays well. My stance on him is that I hope he does well because we have so much invested in him, but at the same time, we don't need to wait forever making a call on him. You have this red vrs blue approach and again, it's just an ignorant way to look at it. You resort to insults when someone doesn't agree with hating Tua as much as you do and it continues to just drag the forum down...But go right ahead and keep on keepin on.
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    My intent is not to turn this thread about Marino but…



    Does any of this sound familiar concerning this year’s…and many years past teams?
     
  11. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I feel differently. I don't care what someone who only watches one game thinks about Tua. Particularly that game. He had a bad game and has shown that he has issues with cold weather. I am not sure what the solution is there. Maybe learning to play in gloves? I think Warner did later in his career.

    From watching the year, his arm isn't what is going to break him. The reason he gets compared to Brees, is that is the blueprint of how he is going to have to develop to become elite. If it's going to happen, it's going to require experience, and Tua to absolutely master the metal side of the game. Hopeful, if it happens, it won't take as long as it did for Brees. The main issues with this is, first that we don't know how he is being coached. Is he making the reads that he should be? His game now is mostly quick reads. RPO's require it. Secondly, how does he develop with the O-line that he has played with? How many plays in the entire year did he get to run where he was even able to go through multiple read progressions.


    I don't know how you take the totality how how he played this year and come up with "sucks". We've had sucks.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't think Tua is really that accurate, regardless of completion%. I think he's ok. But I see balls every game that I just don't think are accurately placed, even though they're catchable.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's actually captured in the stats. Tua's "bad throw percentage" is 16.5% which is close to the league average of 16.9%, while his "on target percentage" is 79.7% compared to a league average of 75.4%. He's also near the bottom in "intended air yards" with a 7.2 IAY compared to a league average of 7.8, which explains his high completion percentage of 67.8% compared to the league average of 64.9%.

    So basically Tua's high completion % (7th highest in the league) and high on-target % (4th highest) is in large part due to his low intended air yards (6th lowest among starting QBs), while his accuracy independent of that, as measured by bad throws, is around league average.
     
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  14. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok now that I’m home and have a few moments, allow me to elaborate of these videos concerning Marino that I posted.

    As I eluded to in the first, Marino being drafted late was fortunate for him to be drafted to a legitimate playoff and potential super bowl team in Miami. The TEAM was there…they just needed the quarterback to take it to the next level. If this sounds familiar, it’s because this is exactly what I was a proponent for prior to the drafting of Tagovailoa. I would have much rather used the draft picks we had to build up the rest of the team, even if it meant Fitzpatrick would have been our starter to set up any near future drafted quarterback to succeed. We didn’t take that route and with the subsequent route we’ve taken in the draft, Tua’s yet to be set up for success.

    Now to the second video. I got a kick out of Bob Keuchenberg, one of the Dolphins LEGENDS. Paraphrasing,” I’m not a fan of Marino. A quarterback’s responsibility is not passing the ball. The quarterbacks responsibility is to win games”

    I find that incredibly remarkable of a statement and it makes PERFECT sense. I kind of eluded to it in the arguments last night when the topic involved Tannehill; so you a quarterback lighting up the stats and losing or so you want a quarterback that’s winning? Now I am by NO MEANS lumping Tua in with Marino ***BLASPHEMY*** but do you really want Tua lighting up the stats and not winning…like what happened with Marino year after year…or do you want him WINNING games…and have you (the organization) done everything you can to set him (or any other quarterback for the matter) up for success to win?

    Just some things, historical and current to think about
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    All I'm saying is, when I watch him, I don't see the elite accuracy I hear people really about with Tua. But, I also get the argument about the online because he has no time to throw, so it's gonna be hard to be perfectly accurate on every throw.
     
  16. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    LOLz
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You're post was hyperbole. You acted as if Cinci had the worst line in the league. Miami's line isn't 20th or "bottom third", they are dead last. You act as if Burrow being sacked more than Tue, with a better o-line, is somehow a good thing? Hyperbole.

    Herbert had a good season last year and didn't "kill it". And the Chargers didn't have the worst o-line in the league. More hyperbole.

    Again, I'm not sold on Tua, but I don't use emotion and hyperbole to discredit him.
     
  18. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    ESPN has Cincinnati's o-line ranked 30th. PFF has them 22nd. Fact.
    Burrow has been sacked more than any QB this year. Fact
    Burrow is excelling. Fact
    The Chargers did have the 32nd ranked o-line last year. Fact
    Herbert had 4,631 yards, 35 tds and 14 ints. He also won offensive rookie of the year. Fact
    He killed it last year. More Facts
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2022
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  19. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    The offensive line is historically bad. Got Tua injured to the point where he couldn't go for 6 games, the elite recieving corps we were promised took ZERO SNAPS together and we have a bottom 5 run game in the nfl.
    And all these folks are like “he did ****” with **** which is somehow not an excuse BUT if the vaunted and celebrated defense did its job against Jacksonville and Atlanta (hardly offensive juggernauts) where Tua gave us the lead late? We would be a playoff team.
     
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  20. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...IQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2hRJF95aSCTr4V5X1zsbOl
    Unless the NFL he more than 32 teams the chargers were absolutely the worst line in the league last year.
    Rookie of the year and he didn't kill it?
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2022
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  21. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Yes because the crappy offensive line has won so much for us the last 10 years. I cant tell you how much I disagree with you. It is impossible to put into words.
     
  22. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    We haven't had an elite or even average (top 15) QB during that timeframe.

    The only time we had someone that played a level that somewhat made up for poor OL the offense was fun and was capable of moving the ball up and down the field in Ryan Fitzpatrick. We had a few three game unicorn line times with Tannehill but that usually got blown up the moment someone was dinged up.

    Trust me, if Miami drafted Herbert @ 5, swapped Noah Bustanogbene with Jonathan Taylor and held tight and selected Jamar Chase at 2 we wouldn't be talking about the offensive line - We'd be talking about a potential dynasty with our defense playing with a lead almost every game.
     
  23. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Case in point, Cincinnati. Horrible o-line yet they have a great offense and won their division
     
  24. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    There really is no point in continuing the conversation - I'm not going to change my mind and you aren't going to change yours.
    And that's ok too.
     
  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he looked like *** in the SB because his offensive line fell apart which they addressed in the offseason. Which I don't understand why since its apparently not important.

    You guys do know its possible to criticize Tua without pretending an offensive line THIS bad isn't still a problem
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not sure what there is to disagree with. We're talking about Watson here, not Tua or most other QBs. Watson already proved he can play at an elite level with a really bad OL. Worst OL he had I think was in 2018 where he was getting sacked like crazy. Houston went 11-5 that year so it's not like you need a good OL to win. But you need the right QB for that, and Watson (like Wilson) is one of those.

    Having said that OL is usually important. I think on average its importance is about the same as that of the QB. There are relatively few SBs in the last ~20 years that were won by teams with a QB that did not play well that year (Dilfer, Bradford, Peyton in 2015 come to mind) and there are relatively few SBs that were won by teams with a bad OL (Pitt in 2008, Giants in 2011, Seattle in 2013). But it's not like OL is some prerequisite to success. There are many ways to build a winner.
     
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I thought he looked amazing and his wide receivers really let him down. He made some of the most athletic throws I have seen turn into drops.

    Though I do agree the offense did not work and any quarterback who is not Mahomes or Wilson fail with a bad offensive line.

    However, Wilson is starting to get injured from all the hits, and everyone forgets the Watson blew out his knee.
     
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  28. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Its also a problem in Cincy because every time you turn on their games Burrow is limping off and every Bengal fan is holding their breath.
     
  29. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Yeah it's not sustainable...

    All things considered it was still worth it to take Chase over an OL..

    Dude is looking like he might be HOF bound if he stays healthy.
     
  30. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I trust you on this one, bro.
    :cry::favre::gun_bandana:
     
  31. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Needs to be mentioned:
     
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  32. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    Anyone who doesn’t understand that this line is historically bad is the people you put on ignore lol. There is zero point in arguing with them.
     
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  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    They post video of Watson escaping pressure to make a great play and say that's what Tua needs to do. They ignore the fact that our line plays like that literally every series in the game. Every QB gets pressured over the course of the season/game. No QB is successful when he's pressured most of the time.
     
  34. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The most recent PFF stats have Cinci's line ranked 20th. Which isn't last (like your hyperbole insinuated) and is much better than Miami's 32nd ranked oline. Fact

    Burrow being sacked more than Tua with an oline better than Miami's isn't a good thing. Fact

    However, the real telling part is sack %. Burrow is sacked 4.4% of the time and Tua is sacked 4.8% of the time. With the FACT that Miami's line is at least 12 spots worse than Cinci's we'd expect there to be much more of a difference in percentages. We don't. Fact

    Hell, Tannehill is sacked 8.4% of the time. Maybe those sacks don't mean as much as you think being that the Titans just won the division.

    The Chargers did not have the 32nd ranked o-line last year. FACT https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2020-offensive-line-rankings

    Herbert had ~4300 yards, 31TD's and 10 INT's in his rookie season with a 98 passer rating. Fact

    If you mean in rookie standards that he "killed it". I agree. In NFL standards he was overall a little above average. The 2020 average passer rating was about 95. Herbert was at 98. FACT
     
  35. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    What are u talking about?Ur own link shows La chargers at 32nd.
     
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  36. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Herbert was 3rd in the league in passing behind Brady and Stafford. So 3rd in the league is "a little above average"? You seem to be making this up as you go along.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Herbert in 2020 was 12th in the league (sort by passer rating) with a passer rating of 98.3:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

    League average was 93.6 so Herbert was 4.7 points above average:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    The standard deviation was 11.6, so he was 0.41 standard deviations (i.e., z-score) above average. That translates historically to about 66th percentile. So Herbert was basically better than about 2/3 of all starting QB's by era-adjusted passer rating in his rookie year. That's great for a rookie, good for a starter, but not where you want to be for a typical SB winner. Standard deviation for a QB on a typical SB winner is ~1 (in the year the SB was won), so 84th percentile. In 2021 Herbert got closer to that threshold with a z-score of 0.84 (80th percentile) with one game remaining, so Herbert is well on his way to being statistically a solution at the QB position.

    We just need a QB like that.
     
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  38. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    This is what I'm seeing on multiple sites. He was 3rd

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First, that's 2021 not 2020, and you were talking about 2020. Second thats sorted by yards, not by passer rating. Passing yards has a correlation with win% of 0.3067, which translates to 0.3067^2 = 9.41% of variation in win% explained by passing yards.

    Passer rating has a correlation of 0.634, and 0.634^2 = 40.2% of the variance explained. So clearly you want to use the efficiency stat not volume stat. By passer rating Herbert was 12th in 2020.
     
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  40. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Damn, my bad. I didnt even notice that. That being said, he's killing it this year
     
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