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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've explained this many times. I don't believe Tua was worth #5. I don't believe Tua possesses elite abilities. Giving Tua those things I mentioned won't make Tua elite. They would make the Dolphins completive. I want the Dolphins competitive, Tua and the offense have to be functional for that to happen.

    But I in no way shape or form believe that Tua is ever going to live up to being drafted at 5. He's our new Ted Ginn.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hebert had the 32nd ranked oline last year, and he looked WAY BETTER than Tua this year.
     
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  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    So you’re saying a 32nd ranked OL last year is competent?

    The reason they made a huge jump this year is their GM was smart enough to sign the best C in FA and draft the best OL in the draft. I’ll give Tua some slack because our GM is incompetent but let’s not act like Herbert had a perfect situation last year when he won rookie of the year.
     
  4. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    In terms of PFF's season pass blocking grade, Herbert's line went from 2nd percentile in 2020 to 20th in 2021, so if PFF's season pass blocking grades are valid, he's still not enjoying even average pass protection.
     
  5. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But Herbert is better! Checkmate Tuastanian! You should go live with him and raise his babies! These Tua guys are so in love with him. They clearly just want him to be their big spoon. He cannot even throw as hard as Herbert does! Haha! Another great point!
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So people that believe he was a bad pick shouldn't voice their opinion?

    This site was founded because we wanted to have honest conversations about the team and players, without all the homerism.

    How far this site has fallen.
     
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  7. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    "I believe that Tua can be a good quarterback with the right type of talent around him."

    "YOU'RE A BLIND HOMER!!!"
     
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  8. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sam Darnold did significantly less with the Jets and the moronic Jets managed to get 3 picks including a 2nd.
     
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  9. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    His line last year was still better than the Dolphins this year. He had a running game. Better recievers. But, he isn't Tua. There also isn't a physio-psychokinetic link between the two of them that only lets one perform well while draining the other. I understand that people are in their feelings about Herbert. I what if too sometimes.

    Tua showed steady improvement across his game year 1 to year 2. Here's a fun stat (well, fun before cbrad does his era adjustment) Tua is currently 0.2 points behind Fitzpatrick for 3rd all time in Dolphin career QB rating. Meaning career QB rating as a QB throwing passes for the Dolphins. Pennington is first by a lot. This is apropos of little pertaining to this discussion.

    The little is that he is on track to be the best QB drafted since Marino. He is better after year 2 than any QB drafted by Miami since 1983. He is already the best young QB acquired by any means for the Dolphins since 1983. He's the third best QB acquired by any means since Marino, and the two above him were Pennington and Fitzpatrick. Neither of which had much of a future. It should be noted that Tannehill turned his 87 career passer rating for Miami into a 102 career passer rating for Tennessee. He also had individual seasons that were better than Tua, but it took him 3 years to have one better than just Tuas rookie offering.

    Point is, Tua is looking like the best QB acquired since Dan. He absolutely has to keep improving to be that guy. Anyone declaring him a bust at this point has lost their perspective. Or, is so butthurt over Herbert that they cannot see through the tears.
     
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  10. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would take Waddle over Allen at this point. Allen is older and his time is running out while Waddle has his whole career. Plus Waddle was arguably a better player this past year.

    Regardless it’s less about revisionist history for me and more about how we correct a clear mistake. I don’t believe you can win a playoff game, much less a SB with Tua so how do you upgrade the position?
     
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  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Neither. He’s an average QB. Someone may feel he’s worth the investment. If he came out this year he’s the first QB off the board by far. That doesn’t mean he’s a good QB; it means if you’re able to upgrade the position there will be a QB needy team desperate enough to give you a high pick because they’d rather spend it on Tua then on a project like Howell, Corral, Wills etc.
     
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  12. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m not a Herbert stan. I just recognize facts. Fact is Tua is average while Herbert is out there setting records
     
  13. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wow, you people are emotional. Have you insulted people because of not loving Herbert or hating Tua enough? If you haven't, you weren't being parodied. Nice strawman. If I thought you shouldn't be posting I'd block you and move on. I wouldn't spend as much time replying to you as I did above.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This argument is like the reverse of Tannehill. Tannehill AT LEAST possessed elite traits... Big, strong, cannon arm, durable. I supported Tannehill for those reasons. Tua doesn't possess those things.

    Building a complete team will benefit ANY QB. Doesn't mean that the QB is going to be great. Building the team around Tua will definitely allow him to be more successful...but I want a QB that makes the offense better, not an offense that makes the QB better.

    Do you understand the difference?
     
  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Ha! I've thought the same thing.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    WHO CARES what his rating is? Ratings don't win games. Points win games. Tua is WAY BEHIND Hebert in terms of points scored. I don't talk about Hebert in an effort to denigrate Tua. It's simply a comparison to a QB who we absolutely could have picked and didn't.

    I COMPLETELY understand rooting for the Dolphins, and Tua, to be successful. That is a far cry from believing that Tua is the answer at QB in Miami.
     
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  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The question isn't whether Tua can be a workable QB with the right talent around him, the question is whether we should keep trying to get a franchise QB to replace him.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The ratings argument is actually the best argument that Herbert > Tua so far because the difference is now statistically significant.

    Until the last 2 games of this season there was clearly a difference in career ratings between Herbert and Tua but it wasn't statistically significant (the difference could be explained by random variation alone). Then after that 2nd to last game against Tennessee it finally became statistically significant and remained that way after the last game. So right now, with admittedly very small sample size so this will fluctuate quite a bit before stabilizing, the difference between Herbert and Tua cannot be explained by random variation alone.
     
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  19. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Forget Watson it's not happening.

    Their next chance for that would be 2023 when they have two first round picks. So, the actual question for the time being is whether Tua can be the guy with the right team built around him.
     
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  20. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    Something that can help compare some relevant QBs:

    Comparison.jpg

    EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency)
    CPOE = nflfastR completion % over expected (accuracy)
    DVOA = F.O. defense-adjusted value over average (efficiency)
    DYAR = F.O. defense-adjusted yards above replacement (gross production)
    PFF = individual PFF offense grade
    QBR = ESPN total QBR; measure of win probability added per play
    Sack% = sack rate (sacks/total dropbacks)
    AirYds = Air yards per attempt
    CP = nflfastR completion probability based on situation & air yards
    PFF Recv = team PFF receiving grade
    PFF Pblk = team PFF pass block grade
    PA/G = team points allowed per game
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm just saying, the job of the QB is to lead the team to points. Tua is way behind Hebert in that respect, regardless of rating.

    Again, though, rating is a result, not an action. It's useful in comparing, and useful in making predictions, but in and of itself, it's not the be-all-end-all for me.
     
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't disagree with this.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Exactly. That's my concern...tua is just good enough where they win enough to not have to draft picks, and we never get an actual franchise QB.
     
  24. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Just think, if we would have drafted Herbert, we'd have 3 first round picks in the next two years. Instead, we may have to trade those picks to move up in the draft or to trade for or a veteran.
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Both points and rating are a result, not an action per se. Points is more affected by surroundings than passer rating (e.g., passer rating doesn't directly include yards or TDs by running backs, etc.). So rating is closer to looking at the QB in isolation, even though it's still clearly far away from being a true individual player stat. Still.. for comparing QBs you're better off looking at ratings than points scored.

    Those two stats are highly coupled though: correlation across NFL history is 0.78 so about 60% of the variation in points scored can be explained by passer rating.
     
  26. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    EPA (expected points added) per play. The last 5 league MVPs have either led the league or been an extremely close second in the league in EPA per play. The thumbnail image I included in my post above includes EPA per play as one of the bases of comparison among Tua and the other QBs listed. Aaron Rodgers leads the league this year by a good margin and will in all likelihood win the league MVP again.
     
  27. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If their intent is to draft a new QB in 2023, they might decide to trade whatever they can for picks, just like in 2019.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a decision that should be made after 2022, not now. There's no question there's value in fixing OL, RB and getting another good WR this year regardless of QB, so I'd do that in this draft. Then if Tua doesn't pan out in 2022 you trade Tua and possibly a bit more to get more picks. Even if Tua is not the answer it's still likely based on prior improvement and additional pieces he can be a mid-90's rating QB, so slightly above average, but not good enough if you want to seriously improve your chances at winning a SB. Trade value for that is minimum a 2nd and possibly a 1st given how many teams would be happy with a mid-90's rating QB.

    2023 is the right year to make that move, not this offseason.
     
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  29. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    They still have to see if Tua is the guy. I expect them to spend big in free agency and get him some complimentary pieces. If they do that, and next season he doesn't take the big jump then 2023 they can part ways and draft a quarterback.
     
  30. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    The chances of 2019 happening is slim to none.

    First off, a player like Minkah Fitzpatrick being available is almost unheard of. Second of all, Texans aren't as easy to fleece as they were before.

    The smartest thing to do is invest in the areas of weakness via free agency and the draft and actually put a good offensive line in front of Tua and whoever will be the running back(s) on the roster.
     
  31. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    That’s hopefully what they‘ll do, but the last two games from Tua concern me, so does his injury history and that Flores didn’t seem to like what he saw. Mix that with our front office and owner it get‘s even harder to evaluate him, but if he’s really good, then he should succeed despite that.
     
  32. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    As much as him missing games earlier in the season is a concern, I wonder if we've grown so accustomed to Tannehill getting up after being punished behind a trash o-line that we kind of forgotten that that kind of thing isn't normal.
     
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  33. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The problem with passer rating for Tua is that it's inflated by relatively short passes that have a high likelihood of being completed, but which don't yield the necessary pass efficiency in terms of yardage.

    One can find highlights galore on YouTube of Tua at Alabama, throwing short passes that are then taken for big yardage by his receivers. What's perplexing however is that Tua just threw 388 passes this year and not a single one of them was of that nature (an "Alabama highlight" play), even though the system (largely RPO) and at least one of the receivers (Waddle) was highly similar. What are the odds of that?
     
  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    The Tennesee game does concern me, however, the New England game doesn't as much. He almost threw for two more touchdowns if Waddle can catches the slant or JC Jackson doesn't make a great play/Parker jumps forward instead of backwards. He also made two big rushes as well. New England is a good defense at shutting down QBs. Only a few look good against them.

    For the most part Tua was a reason the Dolphins won that game, which is what you want out of a young quarterback against a very good defense.

    Tennesee he did poorly.
     
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  35. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    The problem with that is the fact that it is not true.
     
  36. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Tua is not going to take half as much sacks as Tannehill and I don‘t expect Tua to take free shots from D-Line men or LB‘s on the regular basis and not get injured, but I need to see more from him. He only really impressed in one game, that was Arizona, besides that he didn’t have to do much because of the D.
     
  37. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    It's most certainly true. The air yards per attempt of Tua's passes in 2021 was 8th percentile in the league. 92% of the league's QBs threw longer passes in the air per attempt in 2021. Completion probability of his passes was 90th percentile in the league. Yards per attempt and EPA per play (efficiency measures) were below average in the league.
     
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You do realize that there are 4 components to passer rating. Two of them are completion percentage and Y/A. So inflating completion percentage while reducing Y/A isn't obviously inflating passer rating.

    It's not easy to "inflate" passer rating. It's a good metric precisely because you can't easily manipulate it. You can manipulate components, but there's a trade-off between them.
     
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  39. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The issue is that if he throws a greater percentage of longer passes in the air, completion percentage would likely decrease, and there's no guarantee YPA (efficiency) would increase to the necessary level, since YPA is a function of completion percentage as well. All we have are two years of play to go on, in which his air yards per attempt were 18th and 8th percentile in the league and his pass efficiency was below average both years.

    The main point again is that he threw 388 passes this year and not a single one involved a short pass that a receiver took a long distance, a la Alabama. What are the odds of that? If he can throw that many passes in a system he's used to and thrived in, with at least one receiver who's accustomed to it and well-suited to it (Waddle), and zero plays of 388 involve the kinds of high-efficiency passing plays that compensate for the inherently low-efficiency ones, then we may have the insurmountable problem that the style of offense Tua is best suited to play simply isn't highly competitive at the NFL level.

    It's not like the team can simply switch him to a more traditional pass offense with longer passing plays and be guaranteed to have the necessary efficiency -- there's no adequate sample of him playing in that manner at the pro level. He's done nothing but throw largely shorter passes on average.
     
  40. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You don't think Tua will get better? He's better than Tannehill was two years in. I understand thinking that missing Herbert was a mistake. I don’t understand writing Tua off now.
     
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