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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just a short background on some of these "advanced" stats.

    The concept of EPA = expected points added, which tells us based on historical data the difference between average points scored on that possession from that point on the field in that game situation and average points scored from the new position after the play was over, is rock solid. It's simple to calculate and directly related to win%. The only issue with it when applying it to QBs or any other individual is that it's a true team stat, similar to looking at points scored per drive or so. So it isolates the QB or any other player to a much lesser degree than passer rating for example.

    ESPN's QBR on the other hand is exactly the kind of "metric" you don't want. It is based on EPA, but while EPA is just a few lines of computer code once you have the historical data, QBR is over 10,000 lines of code.. doing what? No one knows. Everyone knows that ESPN tried to sell QBR as taking into account anything and everything that might matter, but there's generally no good statistical approach for doing that in many cases and you have to resort to subjective assumptions. Specifically, QBR tries to apportion credit amongst players for a given play: how much did the QB, OL and WR contribute to the result? Yeah.. well how do you figure that out? What's hidden in that code are all kinds of subjective assumptions about how to apportion credit. In other words it's black box (because they'd get destroyed if they showed their methodology), and making subjective assumptions means it's not really a "statistic" in the first place. A statistic should be transparent and inferred from data, not the result of all kinds of subjective weights etc.

    Football Outsider's DVOA, DYAR etc. have the same problem as ESPN's QBR: subjective assignment of weights to all kinds of things. In their case it's what they call "success points" for different plays. Note that how they derive these "success points" is hidden — it's also black box — because unlike EPA it's not inferred from scoring or win probability. So again this is a marketing job: trying to claim you accomplished something no one has been able to — figure out how to apportion credit among players — without showing your results. Black box methods that aren't adequately enough described so others can replicate them at least in principle are generally dismissed off the bat in science because you can't just trust someone else's claim that they solved a problem without seeing the evidence!

    In that context, this new passing score metric is different. The methodology is transparent because they're basically just applying machine learning to all the data available. There are tiny details here that are not transparent, like which particular machine learning model was used, but that's not a big issue because people can experiment themselves with different models to see what works best. The main problems with machine learning are: 1) no one can understand what the machine "learned" (i.e., it can't be reduced to human intuition in almost every case) because it learns a massive number of weights that aren't really connected to concepts humans use (easily could be over 10k separate weights for something like historical NFL data), and 2) overfitting, which means that it works on all historical data up to that point, but it fails once you add a small amount of new data and you have to relearn a new model! In other words, the model keeps changing so it's not the same model despite it having the same label (i.e., not robust).

    So while EPA (and WPA with win probability) are valuable, QBR and DVOA etc should be dismissed if for no other reason than that they are black box, and any machine learning approach like this new passing metric is fine in principle, except that no human can understand what the machine learned in conceptual terms, and the model will keep changing with new data. So I'd stick with simple and transparent metrics that have a high correlation to win% like EPA or NY/A or passer rating adjusted for era (standard deviations above the mean).
     
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  2. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    That is certainly informative.
     
  3. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, you are still don’t get it. I'll break it down. For someone that watches a lot of football you are missing basics. Tua didn't throw deep as often as Herbert. He couldn't. Not with an RPO, not with the pass protection he got. Yet his air yards per attempt weren't bigly less than Herbert's. Why?

    First, because Herbert also short lot. I haven't looked at it this year, but I remember seeing that he threw the highest % of screen passes last year by a lot. His total was just over 23%, which was crazy high.. Those passes often aren't even going past the line. But, you knew that right? Since you watch so much of Herbert. Was that the Chargers padding his stats? Or, was it taking advantage of the off coverage that a QB with a great arm forces? Restraint plays also help a crap OL. Context matters.

    Then there is an RPO. An RPO stresses a D because they have to treat it like a run and a pass at the same time. The O is run blocking so if their not in their run fits huge lanes, and if they don't cover the recievers, easy completions. It also stresses the QB because it stops the deep ball game. If it's a pass the ball has to come out before any linemen are 3 yrds deep. So, quick reads. No real progression, no time. The D also knows this. They can sit on routes. No time for double moves or deep routes if the OL is firing out. It compress the field vertically. The QB has to make his read, and if it's a pass, he has to pull the ball out, reset his body, and get the ball out with accuracy and it has to be done fast, fatties are faster than they look. The field is compressed. More defenders in the area if he misses his throw. I have never seen any as good at that last part as Tua. He can pull, set, and throw with accuracy quicker than anyone. Its why his RPO attempts increase his air yardage. He can ride the exchange longer. He's throwing 10+ yard routes sometimes. As he gets experience and does better with the reads its only going to get better. And, if they get a great back and better OL... It could be a wonderful thing.

    There absolutely were still doubts about Brady year 3. He was doubted even after winning a Superbowl. I don't remember Montana early. Regardless, you are missing the point, which is system QBs, "game manager" QBs, can still be elite. Or, your making a strawman, where did I compare Tua? I'm going to assume the former and state the point.

    Just because a QB isn't a supremely talented rocket arm type doesn't mean he cannot be elite. There are many examples of this in the history of the NFL.

    As for the Herbert is great stuff... Okay? Yes, if Tua is going to be successful he isn't going to do it like Herbert can. If that rocket arm is what makes a great QB to you, Tua is never going to have that. When I say Tua can still move from average to good, from good, to great, I am absolutely not saying his arm is going to get better that way. I am also not saying that potential is reality. He has to improve.

    As for the thread topic. Just so there's no missunderstanding. Tua was not the problem. Average behind that line is an accomplishment. If he doesn't get hurt Dolphins meet the goal of play offs. My assessment of Tua is below.

    He's a second year QB that showed improvement year one to year two. His arm strength was better than I feared, but low average. Deeper outs need anticipation and for him to be able to set and drive his throw due to arm strength. His accuracy was amazing when his form was correct with feet set, bad when it wasn't. Threw off wrong foot moving sometimes. He has to get consistent there. He can set FAST. He has real work when the D manages to fool him presnap or he misses a read. He didn't adjust well when they did unexpected things. It forced hesitancy that will kill his game. He has to play fast, doesn't have the arm not too. I see great things if the next coach likes RPO. I'd be surprised if they don't with how Tua can run it. He shows amazing feel for and ability to deal with pressure. If he ever gets better pockets he is going to be able to work them. High Average run speed. Shifty enough. Not going to ever be a dual threat, but can take turn those broken plays into first downs.
     
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  4. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    How about this one:

    https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/weighted-EPA-methodology-and-performance
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    People interested in how machine learning research works in practice should read that. It's showing exactly what I said: machine learning models often overfit (they predict past data well because they use tons of parameters, but you have to constantly retrain the model to get it to work on new data), and you keep trying out one approach after another to see if you can find something that works. Often, nothing works lol. But that website is worth reading if you want to understand how people try to remove overfitting.

    Note this quote:
    So WEPA falls into the same machine learning approach as Next Gen Stats' passing score metric.
     
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  6. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    The underlined portion is potentially a problem in the NFL as compared to college, because the linemen in the NFL can go only one yard downfield, rather than the three they can in college. So NFL defenses possibly have more of an advantage than college defenses do against RPO passing. This may at least partly explain why Tua threw 388 passes this season, roughly 23% of them RPOs, and not a single one of them resulted in a short pass taken a long distance.
     
  7. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Oh I get it. I got it from the beginning. Your air yards per attempt stat is misleading and useless as a measure to compare Tua vs. Herbert. You did a better job now of putting it into context, but you essentially made my point. Tua is an RPO college QB, Herbert is an NFL QB.

    There were no real questions regarding Brady going into the third season. He dethroned Bledsoe in his second season and took them to the Super Bowl. Great players don't need a lot of time to show their greatness. People keep bringing up Brees, but he is an exception, not the rule. Usually you can tell within 1-2 years what you really have.

    With Tua we have a good college QB who doesn't have the elite traits needed to be great in the NFL.

    Grier and our next coach are going to have to be absolutely perfect in their selection of players and system to put around Tua. I highly doubt they will succeed given Grier's track record.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2022
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  8. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    One thing people don't t talk about with Brees.He played 9 games a year in a dome.I don't think he would have been as successful playing in the AFC east especially in December.
     
  9. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    The Cow is totally on the bleeping money here:
    Listen to the whole thing. Not too long.

     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2022
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I just read the article, and buried at the end is the correlation between the new measure and win%
    NGS - 0.61
    PFF - 0.56
    QBR - 0.54
    Noticeably absent from that list is NFL passer rating which comes in at 0.67* last time I checked
    So basically that model uses a whole bunch of math and AI to come up with a rating that is no better than the NFL passer rating. As cbrad has shown all of the ‘problems’ with PR disappear when you convert it into z-scores. But since they want to sell a product they can’t admit that a bunch of guys with pen, paper and slide rules got it right 50+ years ago, especially when anyone with a basic spreadsheet can calculate it for themselves at home.

    * I checked on a per team basis, not a per QB basis, and the correlation is lower when done on a per QB basis.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Good catch. Yes, the correlation is 0.67 across NFL history (from 1966 so SB era), and for a direct comparison to their 2018-2021 range it's 0.6727 so above their 0.61. And doing it by team is correct because sample size issues come into play with individual QBs — they don't all start the same number of games so you can't just plug the numbers in assuming they did.

    The simplest way to improve passer rating, other than using z-scores, is to recalculate the weights on the 4 components (Y/A, Comp%, TD% and INT%) from those that best predicted win% from the 1960's when it was developed to the post-1978 period after that massive rule change that led to the league becoming more of a passing league. That would improve the metric slightly without changing its simplicity.
     
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't see pinpoint accuracy. I See many balls that are catchable, yes, but I think they're often not in the exact right spot.

    I disagree completely with the ideas that Tua's some insanely accurate passer.
     
  13. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Hey... You're not allowed to post a logical well-considered post on this thread. What's wrong with you trying to upset the apple cart?

    Okay, just kidding. You're of course 100% correct. Personally, I prefer we try to develop the team around Tua because in 20+ seasons, we've had literally zero luck finding the heir to Marino. I think it's more likely to put good pieces around a solid game manager than to find a great signal caller because our history (and that of 80% of teams at any given time) is that for many reasons, it's hard to do.

    In my personal opinion, we need to constantly look to upgrade every position, especially at QB. In my ideal world, quarterbacks would always have legitimate competition. There are probably a dozen QBs that I'd gladly swap in for Tua, but the cost at which I'd do it slides that number up or down.

    Would I rather have DeShaun Watson over Tua? In a vacuum, of course. But unfortunately, he has unprecedented off-field issues right now that would create a distraction and bring undesirable negative attention. Add to that a $40 million cap hit and the loss of ~three first round picks in addition to several other day two picks, and Watson is way too rich for my blood. He'd put us one catastrophic injury from an instant five year rebuild because we'd lose at least six valuable picks (over three years) on a likely bottom-10 team.

    My issue with Herbert is that he brings nothing to the conversation. Is he better than Tua? I could easily make the argument, but so what? He's in Los Angeles and Tua's in Miami. Making the argument that Tua must suck because Herbert is better is ridiculous. That's like saying Dak Prescott is a scrub because Aaron Rodgers is better. One can be great and the other can still be good. When someone can assertively state that Tua is the problem on a team full of problems, it comes off as agenda-driven. As I've said half a dozen times (probably), is Tua the answer? Beats me. Is he the problem? Nope. If he's a problem at all, he's probably #5 or #6 on the list.
     
  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    People said the same thing about Drew Brees. And Josh Allen, BTW. Very few QBs slide out the chute playing elite ball.
     
  15. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  16. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    It’s obvious flores was the main guy pushing for watson. I personally think he built this roster for watson. Ross is a clown shoes owner and is basically just a bank. He makes zero football decisions. He lets the gm and coach decide everything. From most reports you hear grier is a pushover basically. This is why he sticks around forever. He’s basically a yes man. It’s possible hes literally made zero draft picks as a gm and its been all gase and flores. I’ll never buy the narrative ross wanted watson because if ross actually cares he would have forced the trade court cases and all. The reason he blocked the trade imo was purely about dollars and pr and protecting the franchises worth.
     
  17. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    They are all in on Tua right after Ross' press conference the next head coach will choose the QB?

    If they are forcing Tua on the next head coach. They are going to have a bad time.
     
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  18. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Nah. Tua has a shorter window than our future coach. If Tua isn't a top-12 QB in 2022, our two first-round picks will be packaged to move up for C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young.
     
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Have you learned nothing about not picking Ohio State and Alabama QBs yet?
     
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  20. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    No thank you. No more drafting QBs, and look what the 49ers paid to move up.
     
  21. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Wow. So, where do y'all think good QBs come from? I mean, besides Houston? And do you honestly think a year is enough time to evaluate them?

    Tough crowd.
     
  22. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I know they don't come from Ohio State or Alabama. The last good Alabama QB was Ken Stabler.
     
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  23. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Where do they come from? Serious question.
     
  24. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    They usually come from teams where they didn't have a great line or a great running game or a great defense, where they were clearly the best player on the team. Josh Allen came from Wyoming. Mahomes from Texas Tech. Kyler Murray Oklahoma. Joe Burrow from LSU, but he's an outlier in a lot of ways.
     
  25. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I like how you dropped Kyler Murray and OU in the middle of that... :001_rolleyes:

    And if not Young or Stroud, there will be other QBs in the draft, BTW.
     
  26. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Be nice to get Kenny Pickett but that won't happen.
     
  27. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I'd look for a QB that has success and puts up good numbers without having a team full of 1sr round draft picks and 5 star recruits. That being said, I think a QB we should try to get is Tyler VanDyke from Miami. He put up great numbers last year as a red shirt freshman. It he kills it next year, there is a good chance he'll enter the draft. He's got good size. 6'4 220lb (I think), cannon for an arm, great accuracy and pocket presence. He threw for over 300 yards and 3 tds in 6 straight games. Only joe burrow had more, he had 7 straight.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude, come on man. Arizona dumped Rosen after one season, and some people on here thought we find ourselves a gem.

    Rosen is WAY different than any off the QBs you mentioned.
     
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  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Watson, Murray and Burrow are guys who played with excellent casts, as was Lawrence but he struggled more than the prior 2. Burrow in particular had an all-star roster, including Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

    You also can't use past success or failure as predictors, that's just silly. The best example was the "Tedford QB" string of failures until Aaron Rogers lit the league on fire.

    Gotta evaluate them as an individual and a blank slate.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If you want sustained success, then you absolutely 100% MUST HAVE an elite QB, and basically you have to draft him. You get him for four years on a cheap *** contract so you can overspend on other positions to support the rookie. Like what Seattle was able to do with Wilson. Or Brady in NE. Or GB with Rodgers.

    So yeah, you've gotta move heaven and Earth if there's a ****ing elite prospect sitting there.

    But who knows. Maybe Tua will make me eat my words next year. But he hasn't yet.
     
  31. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    Nah, i think tua being elite ship has sailed. Fringe top 10 is best case scenario imo. Which is a quality nfl qb imo but he’ll never be a rodgers etc.
     
  32. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    So, what's your point? I didn't disagree with you. You didn't disagree with me. There's a reason why finding a QB is as much luck as it is process and planning. Most people thought we took a flyer out on Rosen, basically sending a reasonable pick on spec for a player that many believed was a worthy of being a first rounder one year sooner. Most reasonable folks were hoping he'd pan out, like they hope Tua does. Some people have the audacity to believe that planting seeds, fertilizing, while providing water and sunlight is a good way to grow a plant. Some think that if it's not bearing fruit after the first season, it needs to be chopped down in favor of a better plant.

    For me, patience is a virtue and development is key.
     
  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    It's a crapshoot. Scouts watch literally every play of every game these kids play. They spend hundreds of hours interviewing them, their families, their high school and college coaches. They investigate everything from their family finances to juvenile criminal history. They poke, prod and do every sort of medical examination that's legal to determine if there's anything physically wrong. Kids jump, run, throw, and scrimmage. Coaches and GMs have dinner and ask strategic questions and determine the kids' temperament. Then, they perform psychological testing and conduct the Wonderlich Exam and ask inciteful questions in interviews. And ultimately, most of them wind up being scrubs in spite of all the research that goes into determining their likelihood for success.

    No disrespect to Tyler Van Dyke, but regardless of how well he plays on Saturday afternoon, unless he finds himself playing for the right team and the best coach for him, he's more likely to be Josh Rosen 2.0 than he will be Aaron Rodgers' younger clone. It's one thing to say that Tua's not the answer. You may be right. It's something else altogether to replace him with somebody better at a reasonable cost. We should always be looking to upgrade every position, especially QB. If it was so easy to do, every team would do it.
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You can hope for whatever. I've said multiple times I HOPE Tua proves me wrong. He hasn't yet. And it's been more than 1 year.

    My point was, some people argued like you are, that one season was too soon to give up on Rosen. But it wasn't. QBs don't always improve with time.

    I believe Miami needs to keep drafting QBs, as I don't believe Tua is the answer.
     
  35. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    It's not completely insane to suggest that we should draft another quarterback at some point. A lot of people aren't sold on Tua and that is ok. I personally think that regardless, we need to just roll with him next season. Don't waste any draft resources on another quarterback just yet. If we hire Daboll or Doug Pederson (who I really like) we can bring in Trubisky as a backup. Prioritize the offensive line and skill positions on offense and let the excuses for Tua become minimized for next season.
     
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  36. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t know. If they say mean things then maybe they’ll be let go earlier.

    That Colin Cowherd video is so spot on. Whether Flores would have been a great coach doesn’t really matter. To me, it shows Grier and Ross really don’t know what they’re doing and we’re doomed with them leading anything.
     
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  37. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Well first off, it's not the first season of not bearing fruit. It's the 2nd season.

    Secondly, Tua isn't a seed worth planting, fertilizing, and providing water for. This isn't a QB with an Allen type toolset. A QB you can be patient with because they've flashed immense tools and if everything goes well you have a top 5 QB. That's not Tua. He's a juiceless orange. You can spend time letting it grow more, cutting if off the tree, and squeezing it, but the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
     
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  38. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    So are you just going to ignore the Arizona game last season? Dude absolutely went off in that game. Yes he's had some stinkers but he's had some solid outings as well. The flashes show there's something there, just like there was with Tannehill. And just like with Tannehill, this organization is clueless and will probably let him go for peanuts and he'll show his true worth on a different team.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The Arizona game is so far the only game where Tua "won" the game like elite QBs do. That was encouraging. The problem is we didn't see any games like that in 2021. Worse, he played really bad in a crucial playoff-type game against Tennessee. So yes he's shown flashes, but showing flashes isn't enough. You've got to prove you can increase win% above expected consistently.

    And getting rid of Tannehill was the right thing to do. We should have gotten rid of him years earlier, like right after that 2016 injury. By luck we'd have had Mahomes or Watson had we prioritized drafting a QB. Just think about the difference in fortunes! Tannehill vs. Mahomes or Tannehill vs. Watson. We'd be SB contenders year after year. And this isn't just hindsight. I was clamoring for precisely that in 2016. Getting rid of him in 2019 was also the right thing, but you have to pick the right QB!
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2022
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    At least Tannehill was tall, strong, cannon arm, and durable.
     
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