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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I give you kudos if 49ers win superbowl!
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This is ****ing ******ed.

    Tua is NEVER going to drag a team to the playoffs, much less a Super Bowl.

    This obvious trolling **** is ****ing pathetic, and it's part of the reason we started this site.

    Mods will shut down political stuff, but couldn't give a **** about trolling.
     
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  3. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Oh I don't expect Rodgers to walk through that door. If he leaves GB, it's for a better situation.
     
  4. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    If you watched this Bills/Chiefs game, and think Tua isn't a problem, then you need to stop smoking crack rocks.

    An offensive line, more receivers, and a running game isn't putting you even. The gap at QB talent is just too great.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2022
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And if you saw Allen in his first two seasons with a below average QB rating, then maybe you'd understand why it's too early to give up on Tua.
     
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  6. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Allen always had the physical tools and the arm. He just needed to develop the decision-making. Tua has the decision-making, but he's never going to get any bigger or taller or have a stronger arm.
     
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  7. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Tua isn't 6'5'' 240 with elite running ability and a cannon for an arm. You can be patient with QBs with high-end tools and upside. You don't be patient with a mediocre talented injury prone small bodied QB.

    Did you want to be more patient with Josh Rosen? Sometimes you know QBs don't have the goods. Flores knew that, and the players do too.
     
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  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I don't want to drag this thread off topic, so this won't be a long conversation here. However, to answer the object how we mod things:
    This forum has always has a certain amount of back and forth between members. If we were to start clamping down on all forms of sarcasm and deleting anything that isn't a well phrased, thoughtful comment we would likely need full time employment and at the same time be berated for being control freaks. So we try to strike a balance.

    With regards this post and this topic, Tua is probably the most controversial subject there is right now. Despite the fact it's clear people have different views and aren't going to be persuaded otherwise, especially in the off-season, some here want to go on and on about him. Both sides throw out short, shallow comments. I'd rather people just move on and wait for the new HC decision, off-season moves, etc. but that doesn't seem likely to happen.

    I will say that the original comment is in the wrong thread. It needs moving to the 'Tua is wasting my career' thread. So I'll do that. (EDIT - Done it.)

    Otherwise, if any member here doesn't like the posts by another member there's a block button for that purpose. Or if someone legitimately thinks there's a troll on the boards, there's a report button. Use that too. It helps.

    Don't complain about the modding if you're not even willing to help work with the process.

    Bottom line. A lot of people here need to realise they don't have to reply to every last post they see. If more people just skipped over the cheaper comments they'd die out a lot more quickly and the forum would be more productive.
     
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  9. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    Did you watch the packers 49ers game. Dont be shocked when the 49ers beat the rams. Jimmy g isnt a great qb and Hes close to making his 2nd super bowl. He could have beat mahomes in the first one but missed the throw on a wide open wr. Brady won how many super bowls early in his career when he was half the qb if not less than he is now. Nfl is a team game. That bills chiefs game was a prime example of why zone defense is crap in the nfl. Everyone was wide open that entire 4th quarter.
     
  10. Dolfanalyst

    Dolfanalyst Active Member

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    What would more conceivably make a team more competitive against those teams is a great defense, but note that the Bills had the best pass defense in the league in 2021 and still gave up 30+ points in regulation to Mahomes and company. To have a strong likelihood of winning you'd need a historically great defense along with the ability to keep up offensively, with a great QB, etc.

    The Dolphins are far off from being competitive in a game like that. They would've gotten obliterated by either of those teams.
     
  11. Chupacabra

    Chupacabra Member

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    Bring Harbaugh and draft another QB from Nevada, Carson Strong.
     
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  12. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I think as fans/people we tend to gravitate towards the shiny new toy or the hottest trend. Right now some of you are throwing out comments like "6'5 with a CANNON ARM" "Dink and Dunk is for WIMPS."
    Off the top of my head Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, EJ Manuel, Matt Leinart, and I'm sure quite a few more had all the physical tools and athletic ability you could ask for in a quarterback and they all failed. Josh Allen himself looked like a bust his first two seasons in the league. You have to be extremely lucky with quarterbacks. There isn't a one size fits all solution
     
  13. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I did watch. The blizzard came in and made the offenses completely obsolete. The 49ers also blocked a punt for a TD and blocked a field goal. New England beat Buffalo in a blizzard this season as well. However when the weather wasn't terrible, Buffalo beat them badly twice. You can't just hope for bad weather. That's not a good offensive scheme. Especially when you know that's not happening in the Super Bowl. You need a top 10 QB.
     
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  14. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    On the bleeping money.

     
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  15. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  16. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    **Ahem**

     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There is one great line in that analysis that explains everything you need to know about Tua and Miami- "Scrambling is a lot like fighting; only do it if you have to."

    Once we reach the point where he doesn't have to scramble on almost every passing snap, maybe we'll see more of that "strong arm" part the video talks about. That's almost impossible when your scheme is to run block on passing downs because that's all you've got.
     
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  18. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that analysis misses a lot of things. First in terms of arm strength, just because Tua can throw it deep to an open all American receiver, does not mean he has a strong arm in NFL terms. Most of the deep balls I saw him throw there were 40 air yards or less, throwing to receiver who had a good step or two on the DB, and not much velocity shown on those longer throws either.

    Tua's strengths are his ball placement, timing, and and anticipation when throwing on schedule. Whenever he has to go off schedule and rely more on his arm strength and instincts, he struggles. One thing the evaluator got right is Tua was rarely pressured in college. He does not have that luxury in the NFL, especially not with our oline. Unless we get him a top notch oline and a star studded recieving core like he had in college, we should not expect him to produce to that same level, as he is not the type of QB that can go off schedule and rely on his natural talents to overcome adversity.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Maximum Launch Velocity quantifies "arm strength" a lot better than what many scouts look at because most WRs in the NFL never go far enough down field to really see who can throw it farthest. MLV will be directly correlated to that without actually doing the experiment. Granted, MLV in practice is confounded by QBs making throws that don't need high velocity, but on average you should see a difference between QBs that correlates to "arm strength" if you literally tested it by how far you can throw. Tua is at the bottom of the list among starting QBs drafted recently.

    [​IMG]

    For reference, Average Release Time tells you how long the throwing motion is, and Tua is really good there. Trigger Time tells you how long it takes for the QB to start the throwing motion after locking onto the target, and Tua is around average, though lots of data points there are missing. These stats make sense for Tua. Fast release, average decision-making speed, poor arm strength.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2022
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  20. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Nice stats to get a generally idea, but I wouldn't put all my trust in them. According to this Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff have more arm strength than Justin Herbert? Yeah, I'm gonna say no. A simple eye test will tell you differently.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm not so sure really. Yes you see all those shorter low velocity balls by Goff but you also see a bunch of zingers. Mayfield also has a good number of high velocity passes. So I don't know. Keep in mind that table is saying all 3 are similar, not that the two are well above Herbert.

    Anyway, the important point is that it's measuring the right thing: velocity when the ball leaves the hand.

    But yes there are qualifiers so it's obviously only meant to be useful for getting a general idea, but I wouldn't put too much trust in a typical "eye test" as that qualifier. I think you have to go deeper than that. Technically the qualifiers are: 1) it's based on college film, 2) it's one person attempting to infer velocity from frame by frame analysis and not a standardized approach, which means there may be some calculation errors, 3) play calling affects the stat because you'll be artificially lower the fewer deep passes you throw (applies to Tua too), and 4) the stats shouldn't really combine throwing from the pocket with throwing on the run or under pressure.
     
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  22. plc001

    plc001 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wouldn't the other two columns explain the first? All your strong arms have higher trigger times (not sure what that means) and release time. This seems to the tell the story, like tua barely has time to set his mechanics before he feels the breath of a 300lb dude.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Looking at the correlations, the percent of MLV variance explained by Average Release Time is 17% while the percent of MLV variance explained by Trigger Time (time between when the QB locks onto a target and begins the throwing motion) is 46%, so Release Time (RT) seems to be fairly independent of MLV while Trigger Time (TT) helps explain about half of MLV.

    That's probably saying that for deep balls TT is on average longer because you have to wait a bit more before deciding to throw the ball. That RT is mostly uncorrelated with MLV also makes sense since QBs have different physical attributes and throwing mechanics.

    Regarding Tua the explanation you suggested doesn't really work because his MLV is way below average (z-score -1.6) while his TT is very close to average (z-score = -0.12). In other words, Tua has average time to begin his throwing motion after locking onto a target, yet the velocity of the ball coming out of his hands is way below average, suggesting a relatively weak arm.

    Of course we know that the Dolphins were 2nd to last in the NFL in "Pocket Time": average time the QB has in the pocket from snap to throw. It was 2.2 seconds for the Dolphins and only Pittsburgh was worse at 2.1 seconds. That shows you Tua was often under pressure due to a bad OL. But that also suggests that TT is fairly independent of such pressure, suggesting that we're looking at a QB trait more than a team stat. In fact, all 3 stats seem closer to actual QB traits than team stats.
     
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  24. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    This may have been posted in another thread but I just saw it and wanted to plant it here.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Glad to hear that. Have to give Tua the best chance to succeed. Not sure he will, but there's no other viable option at QB next year (unless we land a huge FA QB) so let's see how good McDaniel is with Tua.

    btw.. really interesting how Cinci and LA were built. Cinci through the draft and LA by getting rid of draft picks and spending wildly in FA on proven players. So there's a SB team that made it more through FA than the draft.. just saying in case we splurge on a QB and WR. We'll see which strategy wins out this year.
     
  26. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    And interestingly, although many folks would prefer an experienced head coach, two guys who are still on their first HC gigs are leading their teams in the Super Bowl.
     
  27. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  28. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Didn't see this anywhere else, so I'll plant it here.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    In Tua's ENTIRE college career, he had exactly ONE PASS travel 50+ yards in the air, and it was an interception.

    PFF said the one problem with Tua was his arm strength which they said was low tier NFL strength.
     
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  30. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    From the article:
    McDaniel recently spoke about Tagovailoa’s abilities and provided some fascinating analysis.

    “What I’ve seen is a skill set that I’m familiar with, that’s very successful in this offense,” McDaniel told ESPN. “You’re seeing a very accurate passer that receivers love to catch footballs from — tight spirals and accurate throws, which are huge for run after the catch and YAC yardage. What that means for an offense is if you have people who can run after the catch, that’s an outstanding skill set for him.

    “I also see some great athleticism, some natural pocket movement and really, a tough competitor that’s willing to stand in there when necessary. All of these things that are components to a quarterback’s game that are very important in NFL systems.”
     
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  31. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    What does he know?
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If McDaniel can give us a good offense centered around Tua, he'll be a fantastic hire. No need to get a new QB then. But.. and this is the big but.. can he do it? We'll see. I sure hope it works out.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2022
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  33. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is clearly my opinion, and totally unproveable... I think that if Tua is on the 49ers instead of Jimmy G, they play last Sunday, not the Rams. I think he is all ready better at the things Jimmy is good at, and coupled with that team and system would have been enough to make the difference. Not sure how long it takes to build a similar team here, or if they will find an even better fit in the process. I like Tua a lot though, and will be pulling for him.
     
  34. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Dolphins' Mike McDaniel promises to 'get all that greatness' out of Tua Tagovailoa
    6:00 AM ET
    [​IMG]
    Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN

    MIAMI -- Flying 30,000 feet above the continental United States on Feb. 7, Mike McDaniel had his first conversation with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, face-to-face in the most modern way possible -- on FaceTime.

    McDaniel was en route to South Florida for the second time in a five-day span, this time as the Dolphins' new head coach. Using a cell phone that he says is still inundated with congratulatory messages, he spent time during the roughly five-hour flight to meet the man who would be running his offense.

    "One thing I know about you is you have the ambition to be great. My job is to coach you to get all that greatness out of you," McDaniel told Tagovailoa. "I'm gonna make sure that when you look back at this day you're gonna be like, 'Damn, that was one of the best days of my career, too.'"

    Whatever your opinion is regarding Tagovailoa, you can find evidence to support it in his 2021 season.



    Optimists see the NFL's seventh-most efficient passer (67.8% completion percentage) who commanded the offense more confidently than he did as a rookie but played behind the league's worst pass-blocking offensive line with no run game to support him. Skeptics see an injury-prone quarterback who missed the better part of five games and the first half of a sixth because of injuries, whose efficient passing numbers stemmed from conservative playcalling and decision-making (6.92 air yards per attempt, 28th in the NFL).

    His second NFL season was marred by injuries and trade rumors, but the Dolphins are committed to Tagovailoa in 2022. McDaniel, specifically, said the quarterback's skills are well-suited for the offense he will be asked to run.

    "What I've seen is a skill set that I'm familiar with, that's very successful in this offense," McDaniel told ESPN. "You're seeing a very accurate passer that receivers love to catch footballs from -- tight spirals and accurate throws, which are huge for run after the catch and YAC yardage. What that means for an offense is if you have people who can run after the catch, that's an outstanding skill set for him.

    "I also see some great athleticism, some natural pocket movement and really, a tough competitor that's willing to stand in there when necessary. All of these things that are components to a quarterback's game that are very important in NFL systems."

    This assessment of Tagovailoa is nothing new; his teammates have long-raved about his accuracy.

    "He's going to throw a very catchable ball and he's going to make the job easy for his receivers," tight end Mike Gesicki said during the season. "I love playing with him, and a lot of guys are making plays because of where he's putting the ball."

    Tracking firings, hirings and openings »
    Grading each head coach hire »

    Gesicki, an unrestricted free agent this offseason, would presumably be a beneficiary of Tagovailoa's skill set if he re-signs with Miami. But the primary player to watch as McDaniel installs his offense is wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who set the NFL record for receptions by a rookie with 104 last season. Waddle was known as a big-play threat at Alabama, and McDaniel has not-so-subtly hinted that he has plans for the 2021 first-round pick in 2022.

    It's still unclear, however, what exactly McDaniel's offense will look like; he might not know yet himself. We know McDaniel will call plays and plans to collaborate with a staff that includes new offensive coordinator Frank Smith, wide receivers coach Wes Welker and Eric Studesville, who will remain on staff as the running backs coach and associate head coach, per a league source. Studesville was the running backs coach and co-offensive coordinator last season.

    Based on McDaniel's history as a play designer, offensive coordinator and run game coordinator with the 49ers, it seems safe to assume Miami will place an emphasis on its rushing attack. But there is danger in assuming, because the one thing McDaniel has told us about the Dolphins' offense is that it will be tailored to fit the players they have.

    Not the other way around.

    It's a philosophy he became intimate with during his years in Washington with future NFL head coaches Sean McVay (Rams), Kyle Shanahan (49ers) and Matt LaFleur (Packers). When the team drafted quarterback Robert Griffin III in 2012, the staff installed scheme heavy in zone-read concepts -- something none of them had any experience coaching prior to that season. McDaniel said learning that lesson during his "formative years" as a coach taught him the value of being able to adapt by "any means necessary."

    "Everything is tailored to the skill set of our players, and it looks a little different," McDaniel said, referencing the offenses McVay, Shanahan and LaFleur now run. "It's the coolest part of our job, but it's also very normal because we went through that in a drastic way in our formative years. It's really fun because you don't limit yourself and you kind of don't know where it's going to go, but you're working with players, finding out what they're comfortable with and adjusting on the fly.

    "It's one of my favorite parts of the process."

    https://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dol...-get-all-that-greatness-out-of-tua-tagovailoa
     
  35. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    What did you expect him to say? You think he is actually going to say Tua sucks, is liable to get injured again next season, and has noodle arm?

    All the things he said we already knew, he just left out the bad parts of the evaluation.
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Jim
    Jimmy G almost always shows up in big games.
     
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  37. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I truly hope they are, at the very least, trying to bring in more of a quality back up for Tua. Competition would be great, but at least bring in a higher quality back up. History shows that he will most likely get some important playing time. They betta'
     
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  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I understand this, and don't disagree entirely, however, considering the past two years of Tua with Fitz, being benched, started, benched, started. And all the talk about Watson, I don't think Tua needs a fire lighting under him in that respect. I very much doubt he'll rest easy because the job is his. If anything, I suspect Tua could use some unwavering support from his coaches and ownership.
     
  39. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    What do Tua's feelings have to do with getting a quality backup? We need a good backup because Tua cannot be relied on to play a full season. We had the worst backup QB in the NFL this year. If we had a better backup than Brisset we probably win a couple more games and make the playoffs.

    Another one of Grier's gaffs signing Brissett to be the backup.
     
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  40. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Read the post dude. No need to be so hostile. We know you don't like Tua. Nevertheless, the reason is quite clear, if you'll a minute to think about it.
     
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