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Tua’s statistical progress in 2022

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, Sep 27, 2022.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    After 3 games this season he is ranked second in the NFL passer ratibg, with a ratibg of 117.
    For me what is most impressive about this is that of his 3 games he played the #1 and #2 ranked passing defenses from 2021
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I always say you need at least 150 passing attempts until passer rating is somewhat reliable. However, the bigger the difference is, the fewer the samples you need, and the difference between Tua's ratings this year and all his previous ratings are so great that it's already statistically significant, at least on a game-by-game basis.

    Using something called Welch's t-test which tests whether two sets of data come from the same underlying distribution the probability that Tua's 3 ratings from 2022 come from "the same QB" as in 2020-2021 is 2.64%. Generally statisticians say if that number is 5% or less they'll say it's "statistically significant", i.e., it's too unlikely to have come from random variation alone.

    Caveat of course is this is after 101 total passing attempts so I'd rather start that statistical significance game after another 2 games, but what Tua is demonstrating is already meaningfully different from a purely statistical point of view.

    btw.. his 117.8 rating is just about 2 standard deviations above the mean, so 97th percentile. We'll see how this looks at season's end.
     
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  3. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    The franchise has arrived
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    One key stat to pay attention to is where we are in terms of points scored and points allowed. Using ranks for a moment, the average ranks for points scored and points allowed for a SB winning team are around the same: 5.5. We're ranked 8th in points scored and 16th in points allowed right now. If we start to see those numbers get into top 6-ish territory then you know for sure we've arrived.
     
  5. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Sep 27, 2022
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  6. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Totally agree that 150 pass attempts is the minimum, and I personally prefer 250+ as giving a true neasure.
    I just started the thread because I thought that the quality of the defenses faced, at oeast baded on last year’s performance, was worth mentioning
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not the game we were expecting. Hopefully Tua can come back later in the season. Anyway, his rating after 4 games is 109.9 which would put him 4th among starting QBs pending further games. His Y/A is 9 which puts him 3rd. Of course that's only with 115 passes.

    Just to show you how much small sample size affects things, after his first 3 games there was only a 2.64% chance he was the "same QB" as in 2020-2021 (only counting games with 10+ attempts). Now, after this 52.7 rating, which is the worst rating of his career if you only count games with 10+ attempts, the probability he's the "same QB" shot up to 34.1% lol. That's what small sample size does.

    Anyway, hopefully he comes back later in the season to give us decent sample size for his stats.
     
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  8. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    I wonder what his rating would have been if Edmonds doesn't have stone fingers and catches that TD.

    I still think that all the media attention he gets is affecting his play. He's desperately trying to show people he can do the things they say he can't. Even the play where he got injured he should have been just throwing that ball away but tried to extend it as long as he could to make something happen. He's got Ingold to dump it off to but he just keeps looking deep.

    Also wasn't a fan of the game plan last night with all the deep shots if that's what was called when Tua is deadly on short/intermediate passes. I was still saying "what a throw" on that pass to Gesicki while the very next play he heaves a hail mary deep to Hill that would probably have needed to go 75 yards in the air while he has back and ankle issues. Just a really bad decision.
     
  9. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    So after 6 starts and 5 full games Tua’s passer rating is 112.7. Which I’m pretty sure equals leading the league at the halfway point if the season, I’m just waiting on all game stats to be updated before saying that for certain.

    And he’s making it happen with an OL that isn’t rock solid by any stretch of the imagination. Better than last year yes, but still firmly in the bottom half of the league.

    I was a little doubtful on the Hill trade as I was wanting to spend the resources on upgrading the OL and RB, but Hill is playing at All-Pro level.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is another sign that Tua is a true franchise QB. Yes you want good pass protection, but bad OL should never be an excuse for a QB to not play at a high level. Tua is showing he can do what only a small percentage of QB can do: play at a high level with a bad OL.

    Not sure it's as impressive as Watson getting sacked a lead leading 62 times in 2018 and still playing at an elite level though, but there's no need to be #1 in this category lol.

    In any case, priority for offseason is getting Tua better pass protection.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    dude is #1 in stats..lol
     
  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    One interesting aside. Tua is pretty well dismantling Brian Flores’ claim for unfair dismissal before our eyes.
     
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