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Week 8: Dolphins at Lions

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Oct 25, 2022.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    The Lions and Dolphins have only met 6 times since 2000 and 12 times in history. They’ve evenly split their last 6 games, 3-3, with the Lions winning the last 3 and the Dolphins taking the 3 meetings before that. All-time, the Dolphins lead 7-5.

    The Lions have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games. The Over is 2-2 in those 4 meetings, as well. The last time these teams met, the Lions won 32-21, with the total going Over.

    Moneyline: Dolphins -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Lions +140 (bet $100 win $140)
    Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -3.5 (-103) | Lions +3.5 (-117)
    Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
     
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  2. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The defense can get TOs against the Lions. The key to the game will be whether the offense can score TDs. If we see a repeat of Sunday night, we might lose.
     
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  3. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Looking forward to this one, I’ll be in attendance.

    Grabbed the under Yesterday at 51.
    Not surprised that number is already moving lower. Lions have not scored a TD in their last 2 games. We have not scored over 17 points in our last 4 games.

    Hopefully Swift remains out for the Lions.
    He changes the complexion of their offense with Chunk play ability in both the rushing and passing games. Sounds like St. Brown will be back this week…

    Big test for the front 7 of our defense.
    Say what you want about the rest of the Lions team... But their offensive line can dominate a game.
    A bad Steelers O line held up against us last week, so I’m more than a little worried about this matchup.
     
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  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Getting the win is always the most important thing, but the real victory for Miami was the successful return of Tua Tagovailoa. Before his injury, the Dolphins were 3.5- and 4.5-point underdogs to Buffalo and Baltimore. This number at -3 indicates some lingering uncertainty about whether Tua can consistently remain healthy. Detroit would be at least a two-touchdown underdog against the Bills even in Detroit, so it's easy for me to find some value here with Miami. There are a few factors to keep in mind with the Lions. Despite the preseason publicity with "Hard Knocks," there haven't been many signs of improvement. After a feisty start, the shine has worn off, and they are steadily becoming one of the league's worst teams on paper. Here is how the Lions rank in a few key metrics:

    • Overall DVOA (26th)

    • Net Success Rate (32nd)

    • Net EPA per play (32nd)

    • Defensive DVOA (31st)

    • Defensive Success Rate (31st)

    • Defense EPA per play allowed (31st)
    The Lions' defense isn't stopping anybody these days and lacks the secondary depth to shut down Miami's receivers. Also, it's no secret that speed kills, and the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be even more explosive on the fast track at Ford Field. The Lions' three home games have yielded an average combined score of over 76 points per game, with their opponents averaging over 37 points. Now that Tagovailoa has the confidence of a full game under his belt, I am betting we will see the Miami offense put up massive numbers. Detroit could get some weapons back with D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown possibly returning, but I still have my doubts the Lions can go score for score with Miami. The Dolphins' defense has some issues, but Detroit has proven time and time again that they will stop themselves with mental mistakes and turnovers.

    Miami is entering the soft part of its schedule with four straight opponents with two wins or fewer (Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland and Houston). This week presents an opportunity to bet on them at a solid number before they go on a run. I gladly grabbed Miami -3 at BetMGM and would play it up to -4.
     
  5. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I suspect Swift will play - he practiced all last week and it was a surprise when he wasn't active for the Dallas game. Also, St. Brown was not diagnosed with a concussion and should also play.

    Lions are reeling, but also hitting that desperate make or break time and will be at home which has been a very positive environment for them. Offensively, they will look to use their excellent OL to establish the run (doubly so if Swift plays) and get our LBs and S close to the line, then let Goff drop intermediate passes to St. Brown and Hoeckenson over the middle for chunks. Goff does not throw deep well at all. Most of their early season points outbursts came in losing efforts down multiple scores. Our defense is built to stop QB's like Goff and should be able to do so unless our DL just picks a bad day to poop the bed. Put pressure on Goff and he starts throwing INTs and dropping the ball. Use creative stunts and blitzes to contain the running game, negate the OL and pressure Goff.

    Defensively, they sucked to start the year, but made some changes coming out of the bye that worked. Still, it's a gettable defense that lacks talent and difference makers. Jeff Okudah is legit, but the rest of the secondary is trash and Hill and Waddle should get open frequently (not to mention Mike and the tertiary WRs). Their DL does not usually generate pressure, but they moved Aiden Hutchinson to stand up on the RT/TE which worked and let him do a better job setting the edge and rushing.

    Overall ... it's a talent deficient team we should beat by a wide margin if we play disciplined and avoid stupid penalties and TOs. If we let them hang in there via mistakes or poor execution or let them get confidence, they are still feisty enough to play and steal a win, especially at home where they do play better.
     
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  6. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    upload_2022-10-27_10-17-10.png
    The Miami Dolphins' injury list remained a very long one after beginning their practice week ahead of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Sunday. By our count, the Dolphins had a whopping 18 players on their first injury report of the week, and one of the new names following the Pittsburgh game was quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He's listed as having a left hand injury, though he was a full participant in practice Wednesday.

    Not counting Melvin Ingram, who got his usual Wednesday vet rest day, there were four players who didn't practice, including tackle Terron Armstead (toe) and cornerback Xavien Howard (groin). This is nothing new for Armstead, who has played all but one game this season despite barely practicing. Howard played against the Steelers on Sunday night after popping up on the injury report during the week.

    Also not practicing Wednesday were safety Clayton Fejedelem (groin) and tight end Durham Smythe (hamstring). Smythe was back in the lineup against Pittsburgh after missing the Minnesota game with that hamstring issue.

    Among the 10 players listed as limited participants Wednesday were four who missed the Pittsburgh game: DE Emmanuel Ogbah (back), CB Keion Crossen (knee), CB Kader Kohou (oblique) and QB Skylar Thompson (thumb), though Thompson likely would have been inactive anyway with Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater healthy.
     
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  7. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    With Emmanuel Ogbah out of Sunday’s lineup with a back injury, the Miami Dolphins defense needed someone to step up and make plays in the front seven when it mattered most.

    Several players on Miami’s defensive line stepped up with Ogbah unable to play, including Andrew Van Ginkel, Melvin Ingram, Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis, and Ben Stille, to name a few. However, none made more of an impact (IMO) than outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips.

    “Well, I think the great thing is we have a lot of depth, and so even though Ogbah is down, we have guys who can come in and basically take that spot right away,” Phillips said on Thursday.

    Phillips continued:

    “So having ‘Gink’ (Andrew Van Ginkel) having more of a third-down, more of a pass-rushing opportunity, Melvin (Ingram), myself. I think that’s kind of the great thing about our defense, is pretty much everybody has the next-man-up mentality, and everybody is ready to play whenever their number is called.”

    Phillips recorded eight tackles (four solo) in Sunday’s 16-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. And yes, he added 1.5 sacks on Sunday, doubling his season total to three. The 23-year-old pass-rusher has now recorded a sack in three of his last four games. He also chased Kenny Pickett down on a critical third-down play that was as impressive as any play you’ll see all year. But it wasn’t the eight tackles or the sacks that were most eye-popping.


    It was how Phillips dug deep from within and gutted it out late in the fourth quarter when Miami needed it most.

    It was the way he constantly gave it 100 on every rep, playing 80% of Miami’s snaps (60) — 26 of those came in the fourth quarter alone. He won with power. He won with speed, and again, he showed the world that he’s one of the league’s best up-and-coming EDGE players in football.

    Heading into the year, Phillips spoke about how important it was for him to take his game to the next level, becoming a well-rounded EDGE defender in all areas. That meant becoming more involved in the run game. More specifically, Phillips had to do a better job at setting the EDGE.

    “I’m really critical of myself and I have a lot of high aspirations and I want to do everything I can to help the team and so for me, not being able to come in every single down to help the team, that’s something where I took it on myself where I’m going to work on this. So the sacks were nice, but ultimately it’s more than just sacks. It’s more than just production. It’s about how you fit into the defense and what are you doing to contribute to the team as a whole.”

    “I’m just trying to be the most well-rounded player that I can be, so whatever roles that the coaches see fit for me, I can fit those roles accordingly.”

    After seven games, Phillips ranks 5th on ESPN among all defenders in run-stop win rate, something that makes Miami’s third-year linebacker very happy.

    “Yeah, that definitely makes me happy because that’s really the main thing in the offseason that I was talking about and really trying to work on, and so I think I can continue to work on it. But I’m definitely proud of myself and happy that I’ve made some strides in the run game.”

    While some fans early in the year were down on Phillips, wondering where the sacks were. The truth of the matter is he’s been playing exceptionally well. That was no different on Sunday when the defense needed their play-making pass rusher EDGE defender to step up, and Jaelan Phillips rose to the occasion.
     
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  8. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I focused on him specifically in the game and no one can fault him for lack of effort. He plays until the whistle blows for sure.
     
  9. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters in his Friday press conference that both running back D'Andre Swift and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown are trending toward playing in Week Eight.

    “Having both of them back is a big jolt,” Campbell said, via Eric Woodyard of ESPN.

    Swift has been out for several weeks dealing with ankle and shoulder injuries. He was a full participant in Detroit’s Wednesday and Thursday practices. He’s rushed for 231 yards and a touchdown and caught eight passes for 77 yards this season.

    St. Brown is in the concussion protocol. He leads the team with 28 catches, recording 275 yards and three touchdowns. He also has a pair of carries for 68 yards.

    Detroit’s full injury report with game statuses will be released later on Friday.
     
  10. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Tagovailoa was a full participant Wednesday but was listed with a left hand injury. Only four weeks this season has Tagovailoa not shown up on the practice report. He also has had back and ankle injuries and a concussion. Tagovailoa returned to game action last week after missing two games with his head injury.

    The Dolphins added offensive lineman Rob Hunt to the report with a hip injury that limited him, and punter Thomas Morstead missed practice with an illness.

    Left tackle Terron Armstead (toe), tight end Durham Smythe (hamstring), cornerback Xavien Howard (groin) and safety Clayton Fejedelem (groin) returned to limited work Thursday after not practicing Wednesday.

    The rest of the team’s report remained the same.

    Linebacker Jerome Baker (hip), tight end Tanner Conner (knee), cornerback Keion Crossen (knee), cornerback Kader Kohou (oblique), right tackle Greg Little (Achilles), defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah (back), defensive lineman Zach Sieler (hand/ankle), quarterback Skylar Thompson (right thumb), receiver Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (hand) again were limited.
     
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  11. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    The Lions had a couple of their top receivers back on the practice field Thursday.

    Tight end T.J. Hockenson and wide receiver Josh Reynolds were both limited participants after sitting out during Wednesday’s session. Both Hockenson and Reynolds are dealing with knee injuries. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion protocol) was also limited.

    Left guard Jonah Jackson also practiced after sitting out with a finger injury. He joined left tackle Taylor Decker (neck) and center Frank Ragnow (foot) as limited participants.

    Safety DeShon Elliott (finger), defensive end Charles Harris (groin), cornerback Mike Hughes (knee), cornerback Chase Lucas (ankle), safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle), and tackle Matt Nelson (calf) missed a second straight day of practice.
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The only three names that worry me on our IR are Baker, Wilkins, and Ogbah. Pretty sure Waddle, Armstead, and X will play regardless.
     
  13. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Wilkins will play. He was just limited.
     
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  14. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Miami Dolphins Star Xavien Howard sued.”

    ?
    :couch:
     
  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    $30,000???
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't even know how to react to that. $30k doesn't feel like the appropriate ask for a lifetime STD.
     
  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    A couple of points, based on my experience with settling legal claims.
    1) From X’s POV, just pay the cash. Your lawyers will cost more and reputational fallout will cost more. Economically pay, get a NDA signed and move on. When you’re defending a lawsuit the aim as the defendant is to make the problem go away as quickly and cheaply as possible.
    2) Fom the plaintiffs lawyer’s POV, my best guess is that it’s a situation where the client has pushed their *** into a rotating band now she wants to sue the one tooth on the saw who has money. I have doubts that she was a virgin raised in a nunnery until she met X at choir practice. There’s a reason why there’s a low starting offer, problems with evidence and/or credibility are more compelling than the lawyer can’t do maths.
    3) The reason for X to fight and not settle immediately is to send a message to other shakedown artist lawyers that he isn’t a soft touch. This is unrelated to his culpability or innocence.
     
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  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    What does any of this lawsuit crap against Howard have to do with the game today?

    Can we PLEASE keep topics ON topic?
     
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  19. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Im expecting a lot of offense and very little defense on this game from both teams. Hopefully we make enough stops.

    35-31 dolphins win. Tua with over 300 and 4 touchdowns today
     
  20. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    We haven’t won there since 2006, time to change that. Go Fins, beat man Campbell and the Lions!!!
     
  21. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pathetic start against a pathetic team. Non-existant defense right there. Not good.
     
  22. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    ANother embarrassing L coming today A la the Jacksonville London game last year. Team sucks.
     
  23. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Um…was really worried about a dud today. Dolphins always have one around this time of year.
     
  24. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Let’s see if we can march down the field, like the Lions just did…
     
  25. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    Never gonna happen. I sense a T/O to a fired up Lions team.
     
  26. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    pretty obvious late hit to the head by 25 on Mostert as he was already down. Where's the flags?
     
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  27. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rodriguez untouched to Tua. Then hits him with a cheap shot after he's arleady down
     
  28. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Braylon sanders? Yeah, take a seat on the bench and never step on the field again. Brutal.
     
  29. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Braylon who?
     
  30. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's got no business being on the field instead of EE. What a joke.
     
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  31. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Tough start, hope the D is ready to go now…
     
  32. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Who tf is that? Why isnt cedrick wilson on the fn field?
     
  33. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    LOl I can't even. Know this team too well no matter who the coach is it's always the same soft undisciplined play.

    Lions going up 14-0 now.
     
  34. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's an even better question than mine as to why he's out there instead of EE. good point
     
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  35. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    First NFL catch results in a fumble, that’s not a confidence builder.

    Hope the defence is ready to play this series as they certainly weren’t last one.
     
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  36. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    Blowout today. Lions 35 - Dolphins 16
     
  37. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    I’m getting worried EE is a bust when he can’t even see the field over the other receivers.
     
  38. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ****ing pathetic. Complete joke.
     
  39. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    I should start betting.
     
  40. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Awful, awful defence. Going to have to score 40 points to win this one.
     

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