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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Nobody said it was difficult. You said he panics and "****s his pants" after the first read. Didn't look like much panic there to me was my point.

    But, again you guys shift the goalposts as usual.
     
  2. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    No one is shifting anything. You seem to think a single example proves anything. He moved up in a well made pocket and threw the ball in the flat as designed. That doesn't change the fact he struggles off script. That's why his numbers are so bad with more time in the pocket, why he struggles on the move and throwing, and why his turnover worthy rate is top 5 the last two seasons, and top 10 his first season.
     
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  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Just to clarify, "turnover worthy rate" is an opinion, not a stat.
     
  4. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    ...and he had a ton of time in the pocket in that game. The OL actually played really well in that game. He had a lot of time and a good pocket, which makes his mistakes/near interceptions even more alarming.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If it's quantified then it's still a stat. I would agree that it's not as good as regular stats, like Interceptions or Touchdowns, because it is more subjective.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's not sufficient that something is quantified for it to be a stat. It needs to be derived or computed from operational definitions (i.e., different observers must be able to independently make the same determination on what something is) for something to be a stat. I can't just say the QB played at a 93 out of 100 level on some personal scale and say it's a stat just because it's quantified. I need to start with operational definitions for classifying events and then derive the stat from it.

    In this case the question is whether PFF grades of "turnover worthy" are based on operational definitions. I doubt it based on what we know from PFF. I can see how most observers would agree on egregious cases such as the QB throwing a ball to a DB being "turnover worthy". But what about gray areas? I doubt they can get people to all agree on what is or is not turnover worthy when both WR and DB have a shot at the ball. So until proven otherwise I'd call this "PFF's grade of turnover worthy plays", not a stat.
     
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  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    A stat like ‘turnover worthy’ this is meant to be predictive of future performance. The theory being that random chance produces noise that can overwhelm the signal. You can say that DBs generally catch around 50% of possible interceptions, so if a QB gets intercepted at significantly more or less than 50% of opportunities then the argument is that the QB was benefited or harmed by random chance.

    This assumes all possible interceptions are equally likely to be picked off.

    However we can categorize possible interceptions. I’ll try to categorize as them from generally most likely to be intercepted to least likely to be intercepted.
    1) The defender makes a play on the ball. He’s read the QBs eyes and knows where the ball is going before its thrown.
    2) The QB throws directly to the DB. Often this is a result of miscommunication between the receiver and the QB, but can also include cases where the receiver falls over halfway through his route.
    3) An errant throw to empty field, that the DB has to run to.
    4) A ball batted at the LoS which randomly pops up somewhere.
    5) A contested ball situation where the DB and WR are fighting for the same ball.
    6) A ball deflected by the receiver.

    My rough rating of difficulty is based mostly on the time available to the defender to make the catch

    We know from other stats that Tua is accurate, throwing the ball quickly and throws a relatively high percentage of passes into contested windows. Which logically suggests that many of his ‘turnover worthy’ throws will end up in the lower half of the table. Which could explain why he has a high number of ‘turnover worthy’ plays, yet a low number of actual turnovers.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well I wasn't saying you could just make up your own rating scale or something. Like the Pittsburg game, didn't a ball go right through a DBs hands? Like probably would have been the easiest interception of his career. I think something like that is easily agreed on that it was a "turnover worthy play.". Obviously, though, you get to some plays where it won't be easily agreed upon, which is why I differentiated it from traditional stats, like yards/tds/ints etc.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2022
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  9. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Let’s compare the Tua ‘turnover worthy’ plays and Pickett’s actual turnovers.
    The Bethel interception wad thrown straight into his hands when the WR fell over. That’s an 80%+ interception chance
    Jevon Holland read Pickett’s eyes and stepped in front of the WR. Good play by Holland, but once he’s made the read that’s at least a 70% chance of being a pick.
    Igbinandswoollowedthealphabet’s was a case of miscommunication between the QB and WR so he had a clean uninterrupted chance to catch it. I thought Iggy made it more difficult than it need3d to be, but proximity to the sideline raises the level of difficulty. Let’s say 50%

    i’m not sure what the 4 ‘turnover worthy’ plays are, but having watched the game and the replay I’ll have a go.
    There were two where Tua put the ball in the grass behind the receiver and a Pitt DB dived forward to try and catch the ball at ankle height. All pro receivers make those kind of catches maybe 20% of the time. For a DB It’s a chance to get their hands on the ball and act like a big gorram hero, but in reality those type of INTs ate made maybe 5% of the time.
    There was a deep ball to Hill that hit the DB in the arms, but the DB had only just turned his head around. In cropped close up at 1/4 speed it looks like an INT opportunity, but he didnkt see the ball. And if had had turned his head around earlier and put his arms up into catching position he eould have lost 2 steps on Hill and given up a 60 yard TD. At best a 1% chance.
    I think there was another which was thrown behind hill in tight coverage, which was a tough but makeable grab. Say 30-40% range. Very short reaction time for the DB.
    Finally there was the one Tua threw behind the WR and the DB turned around and tried to catch the ball running backwards. Our WR was close enough to defend the the INT, but it wasn’t necessary. That was the best of Pitt’s chances and it might be the only one at 50% or greater.

    You can say Pitt were unlucky to come away without an INT, but you can’t say Miami were lucky in making their 3 IN.ts.
     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Honestly, I'd have to go watch the game again, but I feel like when watching, there were multiple balls that I felt like Tua was lucky to not have been picked. This happens every game.

    I don't necessarily agree with people who say that risky throws will eventually end up in interceptions. I think he might just be good at throwing into tight coverage safely. Would make sense, since he's always been kinda at a disadvantage due to his lesser arm strength

    But yeah, I think it's a "stat" (for lack of a better term) that is interesting to look at, but it's not something I would draw hard conclusions from. It could be, however, a decent way of identifying a potential trouble area for a QB and tracking it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2022
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Oh good God, we have ANOTHER stat to consider…”turnover worthy rate”?

    I haven’t read the entirety of the last string of posts, but someone please tell me this is a made up stat…something else to criticize Tagovailoa with
     
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  12. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, BUT.....he is injured AGAIN, so......hurt his thumb on his throwing hand.
     
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  13. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I only bring up Fiedler because we did win games with him as our quarterback and he usually seems to be the guy that most Tua detractors point to when comparing the fact that we are winning games with him at quarterback. Fiedler was our guy 20+ years ago. It's actually hard to imagine that it's been 20 years, but it has. I remember saying to myself during those years that I would basically rather have any other starting quarterback in the league than him at the time. I don't feel that way about Tua. The thing with Fielder was that he was our weakest link in an otherwise very strong chain and he just so happened to play the quarterback position. He was basically a zip tie amongst padlocks. I was never a believer in him and if we weren't playing with a lead, he was downright awful to rely on. Not once did Fielder ever bring us back from a 20+ point deficit and if he did I certainly forgot about it. Not only did those Fiedler rosters have an all world defense, they also had running backs playing at peak levels with Lamar Smith for two years and then Ricky Williams. Fielder was as insulated as it gets for a quarterback and he still couldn't win games when it mattered the most. The most mind boggling thing about that era was that we never really tried to replace him unless you count Ray Lucas and AJ Fkin Feely.
    Now that Tua has some weapons on offense, we're finally seeing what he can do. The offensive line is serviceable at best and that's only when Armstead is healthy. Obviously things are still a work in progress, but having Hill and Waddle are not only going to help Tua in the present, they're going to help his game long term.
    Now, I do think Tua is better than Ryan Tannehill, but that's certainly not taking anything away from Tannehill as a player. I just think Tua reacts quicker, and reads the defense quicker than what Tannehill could do. Every quarterback has a skill that enables them to be a starter in this league. For Tannehill it's his arm strength, mobility, and his toughness at the position. For Tua, it's his read and react abilities and his accuracy. I'll take read, react, and accuracy over arm strength, but that's just ME. I'm not even going to get into "pocket presence" because Tua is worlds better at it than Tannehill ever was. With that said, durability is certainly an issue of right now for Tua. It's very important that he keeps his jersey as clean as possible while playing. I think in the end that will be his biggest obstacle. I really hope he doesn't fall victim to that.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's NOT a stat. Very clearly not a statistic. It's a PFF grade with tons of subjectivity. They basically assign a number to something after watching game tape. It's no different than you or I saying "I think that's how I should grade it". See some examples of how determining something as turnover worthy is very subjective. They're not giving you operational definitions of any sort:
    https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is
    Furthermore, PFF repeatedly says themselves it's a "grade":
    Let's not give statistics a bad name here. PFF is "grading" the number of turnover worthy plays. It's not an actual stat.
     
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  15. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Here's a stat:

     
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  16. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    And another one. This one sans context of how many 10+ yards he has as opposed to other QBs.
     
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  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This is simply a difference between during who is a stats/ numbers guy, and an average person like me. I understand that technically it's not a stat. However, it's a sort of stat, like I said previously, due to a lack of a better term. I guess you can call it a grade. Either way. My position doesn't change. I think it is something that could be useful to identify an area which should be tracked, but isn't something that should be used to judge a QB.

    I think we're just sort of talking past each other, while actually kinda saying the same thing.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah let's call it a grade, i.e., PFF graded X number of turnover worthy plays. Otherwise there are tons of unintended consequences later on when someone says "this is what stats say".
     
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  19. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    It’s been dressed up to look like a stat deliberately.

    Also it’s a bit like QB pressure ‘stats’ in that it’s a pure counting stat which doesn’t differentiate on quality. Which may be fair enough for the majority of situations, but if a particular sample has, for whatever reason, more high quality or low quality chances than normal then counting the number of chances doesn’t give you the full pucture.
     
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  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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  21. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    As dumb as almost interceptions is I find the concept of "you didn't play football so you don't know anything" just as dumb.
     
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  22. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    While I do have some opinions about Mina Kimes... this dude comes off a bit cringey.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I stopped watching the video when he said, "female talking heads". That's sexist and doesn't belong in any evaluation...regardless if it's true or not.

    Edit- I went back and listened to two more sentences...and it got more cringeworthy. Definitely not going past the 1:19 mark. Never liked that guy anyway.
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    in 2021 Josh Allen lead the league in turnover worthy passes. He had a pretty good year last year.
    in 2020 Patrick Mahomes lead the league in turnover worthy passes. He got MVP.
     
  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Which indicates, even leaving Tua aside, that this number isn’t actually measuring what they think its measuring.
     
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  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That’s actually too bad Key. Had you listened to the rest of it, we might actually be discussing how bad Josh Allen’s performance has been the the “almost interception” discussion.

    The sports media in general just has it in for the Dolphins. They always have since Shula and Marino’s retirement respectively and their latest fodder has been Tua.

    He lacks size…he’s fragile and injury prone…he can’t throw the long ball…he’s this…he’s that…he can’t do this this…he can’t do that…but you know what he can do? WIN.

    Emmanuel Acho brought up the record; at the time of Acho’s statement, Herbert was 19-20…Tua was 17-9. Tua had 2 less wins than Herbert, with 13 less games played. Herbert’s big, Herbert’s strong, Herbert can throw the long ball, Herbert can throw hard but with all of that, Tua WINS games.

    I’ve said it before, what the Dolphins need to do is keep winning, but that probably won’t shut up the Tua haters. That’s on though, everyone can keep hating on Tagovailoa but as long as at the end of each game, the scoreboard shows the Dolphins won the games, what the Tagovailoa haters say won’t mean a thing.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think where we disagree here isn't on Tua, Herbert, or any other quarterback- it's the media and people's opinions in general. People say things all the time that feels right to them, or to fit more into the general narrative. We all have free speech here in the US and we're allowed to express our opinions for whatever reason- and that's a great thing.

    But where we disagree as a society is what to do with that stuff when we hear it. Someone hates Tua? Okay, so what. That's how they feel and I know that they won't accept my praise of him in stride. It just doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things that many of us disagree on football-related things.

    What does matter is that we all come here to root on the Dolphins and see them win- we all have that in common. So why argue or try to prove our own narratives on certain players, teams, etc? It's pointless and a waste of energy. If Tua balls out this season, less folks who disliked him before will dislike him next year. If he plays average or gets hurt, then some might jump the fence in one direction or the other. And that's okay, because it's not why all of us come here. We're united by our love of the Dolphins and none of us should take these kinds of arguments too seriously.

    We did this over Henne, over Matt Moore, over Tannehill...and they all went on to have pretty solid careers in starting or backup roles. Just the fact that they all lasted 10+ years in the NFL says something pretty big- teams saw value in their skills. Why'd we waste so much time saying those players were great or underrated or completely stunk? Why are we doing it now with Tua?

    Tua will either be a great quarterback or he won't, but we'll all still root for the Dolphins as we whine and complain about random things the team could have done better. I just wish we could focus more on what binds us together than what pushes us apart.
     
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  28. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :oldtoker: :drink:
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You and I are pretty much cut from the same piece of wood when it comes to our opinions and evaluations of Tagovailoa.

    How Barry may have described this ESPN “journalist” may not have been politically correct…and I can overlook that (we ALL say things that offend people…someone will ALWAYS be offended at something we say), I was more interested in the crux of the point and that was the incessant targeted criticism of Tua. “Almost interceptions” criticism of Tua without the same standard being applied to some of the other “big name” quarterbacks in the league.

    That’s why when you said you stopped watching because of his description of Mina, it was a bit disappointing. With you and I being cut from the same piece of wood, I was hoping you would have caught the same thing I caught in the overall crux of the point being made…ridiculous criticisms being fabricated against a quarterback who has a WINNINH record as a starter.
     
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  30. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the guy should have just got straight to the point instead of getting distracted with nonsense. Took half the video before he even bothered to talk about interceptions.

    Nothing much of substance in that video regardless
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    All Tim Tebow did was win.

    Until he was out of the league.
     
  32. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    He won 8 games.
     
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  33. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tebow was 8 and 6 as a starter. One game over .500. So, while technically a winning record, hardly doing nothing but winning.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tua's rating after 186 attempts is now 112.7. That's insane. That's currently 2.68 standard deviations above the mean. This is way into elite QB territory. Oh, and it doesn't matter how the QB "looks" if this is the passing efficiency you're getting.

    I think the pendulum is swinging towards keep Tua and get good enough pass protection around him as opposed to find another QB. Just needs to keep doing this rest of the year.
     
  35. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Some of you need to delete your goddamn accounts after today. Pack it up.
     
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  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I completely agree with you on most viewpoints, and if you're ever in my area then I'd love to grab a few beers and talk football or watch a game. My only point was that I could do that with Resnor too, even though he and I hardly agree on anything involving Miami quarterbacks.
     
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  37. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    Tua played great today. I only saw one throw that I would call questionable.
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Two points.

    #1, I agree that Tua is proving himself and that the stats should speak for themselves. He's having a great year.

    #2, Tua has three stud WR1 type targets in Gisecki, Hill, and Waddle, plus a stud RB in Mosert. That makes all the difference in the world.

    Other teams have also had elite talent around the QB, but everything seems to be clicking this season from coaching to talent to execution. The penalties today should have cost us the game, but other teams simply can't stop our receivers and ground game. Some of the passes today were incredible- there was inches of room to thread the needle. That's how much confidence Tua has in his team though, and how much they believe in him as well.

    Thinking back to Tannehill, I said so often that our biggest problem was constant change- a new offense, a new GM, a new head coach- every single year, something changed and we were starting from square one. That was true for this season as well, but my biggest positive is that this is a team you can build around and tweak for the next 3-5 seasons. Maybe we don't win it all this season, but it's hard not to see us as a double-digit winning team for the next several years. That's how you build dynasties...it just takes 4-5 special players and the right leadership. And I think we have that.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Apparently you guys are all ignorant regarding the Skip Bayless autotune song about Tebow.

    No one gets jokes.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I will stop holding my breath and be all in on Tua if he gets through this season without another concussion or significant injury.
     
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