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Week 8: Dolphins at Lions

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Oct 25, 2022.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    McDaniel needs to take leadership here and replace Boyer. It's a gamble, but we're doing so bad on defense with a promising offense that you can't afford to wait till the end of the season.
     
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  2. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    That didn’t take long.
     
    Phil Hutchings likes this.
  3. Phil Hutchings

    Phil Hutchings Well-Known Member

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    Phew!

    Why do they keep doing this to us? Is that the third or fourth come-from-behind win this season?

    Tua, Jaylen and Tyree were all brilliant, as was Zach on D. In fact, the whole defensive unit had a much better second half, as the Lions didn’t score a point in the whole 30 minutes.

    But we must cut out the penalties.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  4. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Those penalties are definitely a concern this year.
     
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  5. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Well, go Rams, let's keep that San Fran pick at least around the top 10.
     
    Fishhead likes this.
  6. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Detroit has the worst defense in the league. Let's not forget how this same offense played just last week against the Pittsburgh defense. You do have to take into account level of difficulty.
     
  7. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Tua played at a high level today.
     
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  8. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Also a good bounce back game for McDaniel who I thought looked clueless last week against Pittsburgh.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tua played well against Buffalo, which has the best defense in the league. Also, Detroit has given up a passer rating of 102.4 this year, and Tua put up 138.7, so it's not like it's par for Detroit. Either way, Tua showed once again he can carry a team when much of the rest of it played poorly. That's exactly what you want in a franchise QB. Done that now twice this year. I'm sure we'll see more.

    Got to admit he's playing a LOT better than many thought. This type of play is what we want in a QB.
     
  10. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Whatever adjustments they made to lead to the second half shutout makes that not really a viable option.
     
    Phil Hutchings likes this.
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Of course it's a viable option. We should've never come out so inept on defense. This isn't just one game. We were ranked #23 on defense by points allowed prior to this game and will probably fall a bit further after this one. I mean, league average points per game is 21.7, not 27. McDaniel needs to be careful that he's not done in by being loyal to an inept DC.
     
  12. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    He played well, mostly because of Hill and Waddle outrunning everyone, but again, it's Detroit.

    BTW Bills were missing their entire starting secondary and their top 2 backups, plus their top 2 interior defensive linemen when they played us. Tua has not played well this year when facing good and healthy defenses in Cincy and Pittsburgh.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What about our own injuries? Regardless, it's good to know the conditions under which Tua hasn't proven himself keep getting smaller and smaller. He's playing at franchise QB level right now, and is statistically elite so far, though we'll see what that looks like at season's end. There's no need to criticize Tua here. He's getting very close to proving himself as our long-term solution at QB. You should celebrate that, not keep looking for one or another reason to argue he's not perfect.

    I do agree though that our MVP is Hill. That guy is really amazing.
     
  14. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    You still have to make the throws. I’ve never been a huge believer in Tua but credit must be given when it’s due.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Why on Earth are some people here still trying so hard to discredit our QB? Seriously, eff off and go root for the Jets or something.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I felt it was a very good game today. As others mentioned, the penalties were ridiculous...Detroit declined 6 penalties in one quarter? No excuse for that at all. Seiler played like a stud today though and the secondary tightened down when it mattered.

    This offense is special folks. We were down 14-0 and I was like, so what? Watch Tua and company get to work. We simply can't be stopped because we have so many ways to wear out your defense. The run opens up those passing lanes over the middle. Tyreek and Waddle are giving folks fits. Gisecki can't be covered 1:1 but you can't put a 2nd guy on him either. It's just a nightmare and teams aren't going to solve this equation, not with how fast Tua is getting the ball out of his hands.

    To be critical for a moment, Tua missed Tyreek several times today on sure-fire TD passes. His accuracy is still off to some degree, especially going deep, but he also had 3 or 4 INCREDIBLE throws today in the tightest of windows. I noticed on a few of those deep throws he didn't get his feet planted, he was scrambling and heaving it off balance. One was even across his body (the 42ish yarder to Hill that he came back for). But I'll take that in a win anytime, any day.
     
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  17. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    We would fold before in a game like this. On the road and getting beat like a drum. They came back and made adjustments at the half. That’s what I’ve always wanted in a coach.

    The penalties are a huge concern. How can you keep lining up off-sides? Some referee crews just call something’s. You have to react to how the game is being called.
     
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  18. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Becuase they are looking like they were wrong on the internet. Imagine the horror.
     
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That prediction was wrong

    You and Mel Kiper must be good friends

    only if you want to start living in a cardboard box
    We have…when will you?

    It was never 17-0

    They’re called football plays

    Wrong yet again

    Bottom 5 franchise? Excuse me while I bust a gut laughing
    Sarcasm…I recognize it
    Tua’s ran for 1st downs many other times before

    More sarcasm. I’ll actually give you a thumbs up on this one
    Please…stop doing drugs
     
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  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    While I look at stats with a grain of salt, today Tua was 29/36, 382 yards with 3TDs and 0Int. That’s a completion percentage of 80% and an average of 13 yards per completion. I don’t look at average per attempt. That’s a silly analysis to me. So In laymen terms…

    Every time Tua throws the ball, it’s a first down…and essentially every time Tua threw the ball, it was a completion.

    I wasn’t concerned about the offense at all during today’s game. Even that first drive that resulted with a turnover by Sanders. Tua was playing lights out. Tyreek was playing lights out. Jaylen was playing lights out. Raheem was playing lights out. And there were other great plays made by other offensive players. The issue with todays game wasn’t the offense at all. It was initially the defense and the extreme number of penalties.

    Defense first. Josh Boyer isn’t a BAD defensive coordinator. He really isn’t. The problem is he has a bad habit of letting opposing teams jump out to a big lead and the offense has to get dig the team out of a hole. He’s made decent halftime adjustments, resulting in 2nd half shut outs, but he can’t keep spotting teams that much of a head start.

    Penalties…in all my years of watching football, I’ve never seen a cornerback called for offsides. The officiating today was atrocious but even with that being the case, the Dolphins are the most penalized team in the league. Prior to today game, the next most penalized team had 19 less penalties than the Dolphins. That falls on the head coach. While I understand McDaniel being cut from a different piece of cloth and his players respond to it, there must be discipline to reduce the number of penalties. Too many offensive drives have been stopped due to penalties…and too many times, the defense shoots itself in the foot with a penalty that prevented them from getting off the field.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Your intuition is wrong on that one. The correlation between win% and Y/A across NFL history (SB era) is 0.55 while the correlation between win% and Y/C is 0.3. That translates to about 30% of the variance in win% explained by offensive yards per attempt and only about 9% explained by yards per completion. Yards per attempt is far more informative than yards per completion.

    To give you an intuition for why, imagine a QB throwing deep much of the time with low completion percentage, but with high yards per completion because he threw deep a lot. Well, all those incomplete passes don't enter into your analysis if you look at yards per completion. Yards per attempt takes that into account. Anyway, statistically Y/A explains about 3 times more variance in win% than Y/C.
     
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  22. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    We are witnessing the best dolphins season for a QB since one Daniel Constantine Marino was under center. Its not really debatable and the stats do not care about your feelings. Get on board.
     
  23. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    However Brad, you are omitting the other significant stat I illustrated that solidifies my point of view…his 80% completion rate.

    If Tua (or any other quarterback for that matter) was completing 50% or less of his passes, your analysis would be accurate but with an 80% completion rate, my assessment is spot on.
     
  24. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just so long as you are not putting Tua on the SAME level as Daniel Constantine Marino.

    To put ANY quarterback on the same level is pure sacrilege and doing so would mean you’d have to be burned at the stake for heresy

    :sidelol:
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Using Y/C and comp% together gets you close to using Y/A alone in terms of how much variance in win% you can explain. Correlation between win% and comp% is 0.443 so about 19.4% of variance in win% is explained by completion percentage alone. Assuming comp% and Y/C are statistically independent (they actually are to a good approximation), you can add the 19.4% to the 9% variance together to get about 28.5% of variance in win% explained using a combination of Y/C and comp%. That's still a tad less than using Y/A alone.

    So Y/A alone is actually slightly better than using comp% and Y/C together (Tua is #1 in Y/A right now btw).
     
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  26. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Still positive but Im saying I don't believe with this current version of the Defense were making the playoffs. Not *****ing but just staying that something has to change. Can't be giving up 24+ points to the worst offenses in the league on a regular basis and expect to win anything.
     
  27. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Well in the case of Detroit they are top 10 in points per game and yards per game. They are absolutely not a terrible offense when St Brown and Swift are healthy.
     
  28. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    TUA IS HIM !!
     
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  29. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Are you ever going to stop moving the goalposts? Or are just willing to die on the hill of Tua not being good enough because he’s not 6”4 with a cannon of an arm?

    Yes the Lions defence isn’t great but he has absolutely shredded them.
     
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  30. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I thought the same thing :)
     
  31. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    That was the most offsides calls ive ever seen. When i watch games I see what looks like defenders lined up in neutral zone many times, but very seldom called.
     
  32. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    When healthy, Swift is one of the most dynamic backs in the league. Takes a lot of pressure off of Goff, which is crucial to his success at qb.
     
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  33. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Was there any doubt? LOL

    That fumble in the first drive really sucked in hindsight because the Dolphins were going blow for blow with the Lions early in the game.

    I knew this defence wasn't as bad as they were playing and they just needed a few stops. That happened in 3rd Quarter. The Lions first drive in the Third Quarter seemed like a make-good for all the penalties the Dolphins had been called for. That one stop was all they needed to take the lead and then a key 4th down stop and a few first downs. Game Over.

    The Lions are bad, but if you look at their schedule short of two Ls to teams the Dolphins have already beaten, they've usually kept games close. one-score games against the Eagles, Vikings and Seahawks. All good teams. Last week they were embarrassed by the Cowboys but they had Offensive injuries that hampered their usually potent offence recently.

    Not saying the Lions are good, just putting a Road W by the Phins in perspective.

    Funny that they go to Chicago after losing to the Cowboys a week after going to Detroit. . . after losing to the Cowboys.

    Tua is coming into his own. That was a statistically awesome game that we just haven't seen from him all that much in his tenure. I hope it continues.
     
  34. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    This one is funny. Any other QB shreds the Lions defense the defense is terrible. Tua does it and he is awesome.
     
  35. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    380+ Yards is good not matter what Defence you're playing against.
     
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Without question, i just find it interesting some other QB does it it is because the Lions defense is bad. Tua does it it is because the is great. Just funny the spin put on things.
     
  37. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Any other QB shreds the Lions and the QB is awesome. Tua does and who gives a ****.
     
  38. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    that is not the way i have heard it. Tua has gotten plenty of praise on how he played yesterday.
     
  39. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    What are you referring to?
     
  40. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    I would safely say you have heard QBs get praised for great games against bad teams before.
     

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