1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    That's fine but the impact and size has to be taken into account. If a QB makes 5 passes in the game, and has a high QB rating, it doesn't mean his impact was all that large.
     
    resnor likes this.
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    In the Buffalo game Tua had 18 attempts with a 123.8 rating. Allen had 63 attempts with a 94.7 rating. The Dolphins offense scored 21 points. The Buffalo offense scored 17 points (they had a safety).

    You're going to try to argue that Allen was far more influential in the outcome because he had 63 attempts compared to Tua's 18? Or do you see the folly in that? There's a reason why efficiency stats matter far more for winning than volume stats. You can see it very clearly in the very game you're focusing on. The reason Tua had so few passing attempts is because: 1) our defense was crap most of the game, allowing Allen to stay on the field; 2) Tua was efficient, which means he didn't need as many passing attempts to lead 3 TD drives.

    Furthermore, your intuition is wrong about passing attempts. The correlation between passing attempts and win% across NFL history is -0.17, which means that the side that passes more tends to lose (most of this is due to being behind in the 4th)! Also, only about 3% of variation in win% is accounted for by passing attempts compared to about 40% for passer rating. So yes, passing attempts matter, but only by a very tiny amount. And we aren't talking about some extreme example here like passing only 5 times in a game. That would show up in points scored.
     
  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Superbowl VII
    Miami passing attempts 11
    Miami passer rating 88.4

    Washington attempts 28
    Washington passer rating 19.6

    Superbowl VIIi
    Miami passing attempts 7 (!)
    Miami passer rating 110.1

    Minnesota passing attempts 28
    Minnesota passer rating. 67.0

    Miami has played in 5 Superbowls. In 4 of them the team with the higher passer rating had fewer attempts and in all of them the team with the higher rating won.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  4. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

    3,040
    2,485
    113
    Nov 11, 2016
    Nick Foles also led the league in passer rating at one time. Is Nick Foles a great QB? No.

    You can be a good but not great game manager type quarterback and have great stats if you are surrounded by the right talent and right system. That doesn't automatically make you a great QB.

    I've always said Tua is a good QB, I just don't think he has the talent or durability to be truly elite and great.
     
    resnor likes this.
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I don't think that's the right way to look at it. There are many QBs that led the league in passer rating who never came close to replicating that performance and who no one would (or should) consider great. In 2019 Tannehill did that, in 2017 Alex Smith did that, in 2016 Matt Ryan did that, and yes Nick Foles did that in 2013, etc.

    However, in almost every case the surrounding cast was very similar to the years prior or right afterwards. Was Matt Ryan's surrounding cast so different in the years afterwards? No. If it's surrounding cast these guys would be producing at high efficiency levels year in year out. Something was different with the QB and/or QB-WR combo that particular year. Matt Ryan really looked different in 2016 but couldn't continue that play in the years afterwards. Why? Hard to say, but you can't argue it was surrounding cast. Tannehill had possibly the best surrounding cast you could ask for in the playoffs last year and completely bombed. How can you argue it's surrounding cast when you see that?

    I think the right interpretation here is that in the year these QBs led the league in passer rating they really did elevate their teammates' play and were elite QBs for that particular year. The fact they couldn't play at a high level consistently means it was mostly a fluke. Maybe there was something novel that took opponents by surprise that year but not afterwards (i.e., opponents adjusted). That's why I'm totally sympathetic to the small sample size argument with Tua. But you can't deny he's playing like an elite QB right now.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2022
    resnor, danmarino and Two Tacos like this.
  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    This is just a weird way to look at things. If a QB throws the ball 5 times (which is extremely rare) it’s because the team is running it well, think Pats vs Bills last season, or they’re playing their 3rd string and he sucks. Tua isn’t throwing the ball 5 times and if you went through the last 50 years of NFL you’d probably find less than a handful of QB’s (if any) who played an entire game and threw it 5 times. The studies are out there. PR is THEE best way to determine wins/losses. I believe the second best is defensive PR allowed.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    My issue with that is that passer rating is a result, so I can't get behind a result being a predictor.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Unless every pass was a TD.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  9. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    but you’re not using the results of the game in question before it happens. You’re using the QB’s average passer rating. If Tua comes out on Sunday and finishes the game with a 140 passer rating you can bet they won. If he had an 80 they probably lost.

    That’s how all predictors work. I mean, how else do you predict something?
     
  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Completely and totally false. His OL was atrocious. His receivers were very suspect (partially due to injuries), the TEs were garbage, and Henry was not fully recovered from his injury and a shell of himself.

    The Titans were complete paper tigers last year and were the number one seed but no better than the 4th best team in the conference. KC, Buffalo, and Cincy were all better teams than the Titans last season.

    The Titans best supporting cast (by far) was in 2019. Since then they lost both tackles (and numerous backups), LG, numerous WRs, and a very good TE. Their OL went from pretty decent pass blocking in 2019 to just okay in 2020 to near the bottom of the league in 2021, and 2022. Their receiving corps went from very good in 2019 (Brown, Davis, Jonnu Smith, Humphries) to complete trash now.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    lol.. figures you would show up. You mostly post to defend Tannehill, rarely to comment on the Dolphins. Not sure if you're related to the guy. Listen, that team was 1st seed in the AFC and had no weaknesses except at QB. Tannehill played below average in 2021. How the hell do you think a team with a below average player at the most important position gets the first seed???

    Give it up. Tannehill proved he could play at an elite level in 2019. He also proved that no matter how good his surrounding cast the guy can't carry the team when needed. And this isn't just my opinion. I was curious what Titans fans would say after that playoff debacle last year, and on 3 messages boards almost to a tee they all agreed with Tannehill's surrounding cast being about as great as it could be and that Tannehill was the primary reason they didn't progress in the playoffs. Almost everyone wanted Tannehill out, but were resigned to him as their QB for the near future.

    Sorry for your loss there. Tannehill isn't a great QB. He's proven that himself. Oh, and given your singular focus on Tannehill instead of the Dolphins I'm not getting into some waste-of-time exchange with you about the guy. I suggest you start a Tannehill message board because he's the guy you root for, not the Dolphins.
     
    JJ_79 and danmarino like this.
  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Lots of hyperbole and incorrect assumptions in your post. The Titans Oline finished ranked 15th in the league according to PFF. They’re offense finished 5th in rushing yards. Their offense finished 15th in scoring. By all accounts the Titans had a very good team last year (like cbrad wrote) and their 12-5 record showed that. Hell, they lost to the AFC champions by only 3 points.
     
  13. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    The Titans had something like 140 yards rushing in that Cinci game, but alas, Tanny threw 3 INT’s and gave the game away. Hell, the Titans defense even showed up, not allowing a passing TD (and intercepting Burrow once) and holding the Bengals to 19 points.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    3,757
    3,786
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    If winning is your metric, you're going in the wrong direction. Tua is literally 5-1 this season. The difference in the team is obvious when he's on the field, so if he's not the reason we're winning, he's A reason why we are winning. It's almost as if you're unhappy that we're in a good position right now.

    Or like you're arguing to be contentious.
    [​IMG]
     
    danmarino likes this.
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,815
    10,319
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    It is amazing how his throwing motion and ball velocity looks better as a right handed quarterback.

    I did read an article not long ago on the perception of left handed quarterbacks bs right handed quarterbacks. Wish I had the link but it was an interesting explanation on how peoples minds process visual information
     
    danmarino likes this.
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I guess I just don't see the same value in it that you guys do. Tua's passer rating at the end of the season will be a great way of seeing how he did. It's a great way of seeing a numerical representation of how he's doing game to game, but oh don't think it's good to use it to predict.
     
  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Again though, how else can you predict future play except by looking at past performance? Now, this cold all be an anomaly (Tua’s play), but we now have roughly 27 games to look at where he started games. Each season we’ve seen significant improvement in nearly every category. Even when he was being coached by Flores (who we all now know hated him and did his best to hamper his play) he progressed. When Tua starts, and finishes, a game the team is something like 18-8. Now, I typically don’t use “wins” to judge a QB, but I see a pattern here. When he plays, the team wins. We he doesn’t play, the team often loses. If we look at last results (especially after ~27 games) we should be able to be fairly confident that he’s a major cog in this machine. I’ve written it before (can’t remember if it was here) but MM and Tua are the main pieces of this offense. Sure, Tyreek and Waddle are huge, but Tua has elevated their play also. Look at what Tyreek did with Mahomes. Mahomes is probably the best QB in the league over the last 4-5 years, yet Tyreek is doing better with Tua. Placing Tua’s success squarely on his WR’s isn’t legit. It’s a symbiotic relationship. Tue delivers accurate, well placed balls, on time, and in the right situations for his WR’s to catch them. I’d say the ONLY thing people should be worried about regarding Tua is his health. He’s not fast, is a gamer, and our oline is fairly horrible. Tua makes them better too though. And the proof is in the pudding. The oline looks much worse with Skylar and Teddy under center. The WR’s look worse. The entire offense is way less efficient when Tua isn’t playing.

    Anyhow, passer rating is the best way to predict wins and losses. There’s really no arguing that fact. And without a crystal ball or being psychic, every predictor we know of is based on past results.
     
  18. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    45,652
    19,304
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Windsor, ON. CANADA
    I think it's in this thread. Maybe further back. I remember posting about one of these right handed videos earlier in the year and I cant remember if I posted the article or someone else did.

    Basically it's just your brain playing tricks on you because you're so used to seeing right handed QB's throw. That's what your brain is used to seeing because like 99% of QB's are right handed. So to see it from the opposite as a lefty QB it feels foreign to you. Much like driving on the left hand side of the road would. You're seeing the throwing motion from the backside, instead of the front like we're used to and therefore it looks and feels different to your brain basically.

    It doesn't feel weird to see a batter in baseball batting left or right handed because the game is full of righties and lefties, so your brain is used to seeing it both ways and it feels normal. In the NFL Tua is currently the only lefty, and likely the only lefty we've seen since Vick. It just seems and feels unnatural because your brain is expecting to see something different
     
  19. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    45,652
    19,304
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Windsor, ON. CANADA
    Here's the article... Galant posted it originally back on page 67 i think it was?

     
    danmarino likes this.
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    There's a contest each year to see which algorithm best predicts W/L for NFL games. As expected the winners are all machine learning algorithms that take into account almost every stat you can think of to make predictions. No single stat does as well, and many use Vegas odds in addition to purely statistical methods.
    https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nflresults.php?year=21

    The best do around 68% correct for straight up prediction, and about 50% for against the spread (shows you how hard that is). So if any human can beat 68% straight up or 50% against the spread you're doing really well.
     
    resnor and danmarino like this.
  21. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    Well first off, you stated you won't reply to my posts. You have failed sir. Welcome back.

    Secondly, YOU stated "And passer rating is what correlates with win% most among passing stats, not yards, completion percentage of TD's. Your argument has no merit" to my statement of how he passed only for 186 yards on 13 passes. The problem is you willfully or blindly applying QB rating to small samples as if it has a big impact on the game. If a QB has 5 passes on a game, and has a great QB rating, it doesn't mean he had much of an impact on the win. Basically, your statement lacks context and sample size.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I meant specifically to the debate we were having. That was going nowhere because you were ignoring the argument I was making. I didn't mean forever if that wasn't clear. I've never put anyone on ignore or ignored anyone permanently.

    He had 18 attempts. For that number of attempts the argument is valid. You'll have a much harder time predicting the outcome of a game by looking at yards differential or passing attempts differential than passer rating differential (certainly true in the Buffalo game). And the correlation I stated was across NFL history (SB era) so there's massive evidence to support this.
     
  23. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    That might be part of your problem. The NFL is now a passing league. If you are using data from 20 years ago for winning % in relation to pass vs run attempts, it's a very different game now.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    If we used data from just the last 20 years the argument is stronger. Correlation between passer rating and win% is 0.6742 for the last 20 years instead of 0.634 in the entire SB era. The passing game is even more relevant today than it used to be so the magnitude of the difference is greater.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    You’re either ignoring or don’t understand that passer rating is about efficiency. If a QB has 400 yards, but a 25% comp rate his passer rating won’t be that good. (Around 68) 18 passes with a 108 rating (I think that’s what it was) is almost guaranteed to have affected the game in a meaningful way. You can’t argue stats and then take away more than 2 thirds of the stats (18 passes to 5) and claim that you’re correct. 18 passes is below average, but it’s way closer to the average than 5.


    And guess what, the Miami offense put up more points than the Bills with Allen’s 40 passes but ~90 something rating.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Nonsense, as usual.

    The correct conclusion is that Tannehill is a very good QB (top 10 -12) that can put up elite numbers with a decent supporting cast and will struggle the same as all QBs when there is no pass protection and no receivers (see Tua for another example).

    From PFF at the end of last season:

    upload_2022-11-4_14-47-7.png

    Read that first sentence carefully - ONLY THE MIAMI DOLPHINS RECORDED A WORSE PASS-BLOCKING EFFICIENCY SCORE THAN THE TITANS' OFFENSIVE LINE THIS SEASON. Now read the end of the last sentence......

    LOL @ the as good as it could be comments...... Compare your take and mine to PFF......

    Regarding my posts here, frankly the board isn't that active so I don't visit much. I spend much more time on Finheaven.
     
    resnor likes this.
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    15th skewed by run blocking. 31st pass blocking.
    upload_2022-11-4_14-52-36.png
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Why are you trying to predict anything? Lol that's the whole point of a game, anything can happen. I watch the game, enjoy it, or don't if they lose haha, and then I'm able to quantify what I saw through stats, then I can have conversations with people about those stats and what they mean. Predicting future things isn't what I'm watching football for.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Again, let's say those 5 passes were all 60 yard TD bombs. Then yes, the QB significantly affected the game. You can't simply look at stats. I've been arguing this for years.
     
  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    That is why I have the tag line that I do.....
     
  31. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    I was referring to this statement:
    "Furthermore, your intuition is wrong about passing attempts. The correlation between passing attempts and win% across NFL history is -0.17, which means that the side that passes more tends to lose (most of this is due to being behind in the 4th)!"

    I'm guessing the team that has won has skewed to more passing attempts than running attempts. Especially Super Bowl winning teams. It's hard to win these days running more than you pass.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Oh I see. Yeah it's definitely skewed. I haven't updated this graph, but it shows rush% up to 2019 for league average, playoff teams and SB winners. Clearly, it's much more of a passing league today.

    Rush percent per year for playoff and SB team.png

    However, that's different from how passing attempts per se are correlated with win%. The magnitude of the correlation of pass attempts to win% has actually decreased over time. Last 20 years it's -0.1129, so pass attempts only explains 1.2% of variation in win% the last 20 years, which is less than across all NFL history.

    In other words, change in pass percentage over time is different than comparing passing attempts between teams and its correlation to win%. We're talking about differences in passing attempts between teams and how that predicts win%.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2022
  33. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

    1,663
    1,759
    113
    Jan 16, 2022
    What's the optimal amount of pass attempts per game?
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    When a statistic explains almost no variation in win% there's no "optimal" level of that statistic. Technically, since the correlation is very slightly negative you'd rather have slightly less than average vs. slightly more than average passing attempts. But the real answer is it basically doesn't matter in almost every game.

    Focus on efficiency stats, not volume stats.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I'm on mobile and it doesn't show... what's your tagline say?
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Film first, numbers second. If the numbers don’t match what is seen on film, something is likely wrong with the numbers.
     
    KeyFin and resnor like this.
  37. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Game prep, play calling, and planning is about predicting. That is the basis of everything. Predicting what the other team will do and then countering that. PR isn’t really about predicting, it’s about looking at the past and determining what correlates more with winning. Rushing? Nope. Turnovers? Nope. Albeit bother are factors, but the number one thing that creates more wins is PR. There’s just no arguing that at this point. Teams with higher PR’s win more.
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Nothing is wrong with the numbers unless they are recorded incorrectly.

    People watch the film to come up with the stats and numbers. Then apply metrics and formulas using math. Let me guess… math is incorrect? Lol
     
    cbrad likes this.
  39. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,975
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    QB’s affect line play just as much as line play affects the QB. With the Titans offense in 2021, many QB’s would have played much better than RT. If you look back in this forum you’d see that I’m an RT fan. I once thought he could
    Be consistently elite. He can’t.
     
  40. BigBadBrett

    BigBadBrett Member

    22
    39
    13
    Aug 4, 2022
    Very late to this conversation and I didn’t read all the post…however, for all the people talking about the number of attempts (18) by Tua in the Buffalo game, are you also considering that there were only 39 offensive plays that game? So the play calling was pretty balanced and Tua made the most with the opportunities he was given?
     
    danmarino likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page