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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Coming back to the “it’s Hill and Waddle carrying Tua” argument.

    Tua’s season passer rating: 118.4

    Tyreek Hill
    % of targets: 34.9
    Passer rating when targeted: 115.6

    Jaylen Waddle
    % of targets: 22.3
    Passer rating when targeted: 124.7

    When you average out Tua’s passer rating between Hill and Waddle it comes to 119.1. Then subtracting Hill and Waddle gives you a passer rating of 117.9 on passes to anyone else in a Dolphin’s jersey.
    I’m not sure how other QBs do, but I’d bet the vast majority of QBs have a bigger discrepancy between passer rating made to their 2 top targets and passer rating made to everyone else.

    Short version is that Tua is just as efficient to all of his receivers. Hill and Waddle aren’t ‘inflating his numbers’.
     
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Didn’t I close this thread?????
     
  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Week 1 - Tua can’t throw deep
    Week 2 - It was just one good quarter
    Week 3 - The Bills were missing half their starting D
    Week 4 - I told you he can’t stay healthy
    Week 7 - 4 Almost interceptions!
    Week 8 - It was only the Lions
    Week 9 - The bears just traded away their 2 best defenders.
    Week 10 - It’s all Hill and Waddle (Stephen A Smith)*
    Week 11 - Bye week bonus. He’s just throwing to open receivers (Chris Simms)*

    * Season accomplishments, not game specific.
     
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  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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  5. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can declassify threads just by thinking about it?
     
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  6. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    This twitter account might be my favourite right now...

     
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  7. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    It is really not that simple. Taking the 2 best receivers out of the lineup the offense would be like last years.
     
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  8. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    He is a good dude. I like his character.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    At the same time, you don't give the best F1 driver the worst car.
     
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  10. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I would give this 10 likes if I could.
     
  11. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    It's a game of dynamic relationships. Last year, some of us were talking about how hamstrung Tua was with his roster. It stands to reason that he can't bring the dead to life. This season, he got superior help. I'd wager that having any less talent than Waddle and Hill available, we're not discussing him being a top-5 QB. I could imagine him as borderline top-10 with Waddle and Wilson, but no higher than that.

    Heck, missing the other bookend, neither Waddle nor Hill would be having the season he's having right now. This duo is unprecedented and might prove to be better than the Marks Brothers eventually. Time will tell.
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Herbert hasn't been the same since the cracked sternum.
     
  13. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    They are already better than the marks brothers neither of which were HOF level players or had top talent pedigree. Hill is almost certainly going to the HOF, and Waddle was a top ten pick.

    Only question is can they stay together and productive as long as the Marks brothers.
     
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  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I knew my post was going to land that way. The only reason I said it is because Clayton and Duper played well for several years and we're in year #1 with the Zoo.
     
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  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    It wouldn't be as good as it is this year, but it would never be as bad as last year
     
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  16. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Not at all.
    1) The OL s much improved from one of the worst in history to plain vanilla bad.
    2) Mostert and now Williams along with the improvements to the OL give us what appears to be a viable running game.
    3) Mike McDaniel’s scheme is designed to emphasize Tua’s strengths (quick decision making, anticipation and accuracy), and is not some random jumble of plays. In addition his schemes make
    4) Mike McDaniel is light years better as a playcaller than what we suffered through last year.

    Obviously Hill and Waddle make a difference. But to say the offense would perform the same as lastbyear without the, is to ignore the evidence of your eyes.
     
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  17. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    It was against the Browns who aren't great run stoppers. I do think that this showed how to run it down their throats if other team want to play their LB's further back to try and take away Hill and Waddle. Pick you poison.
     
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  18. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    The ball placement on the sideline out to hill and the sherfield touchdown wasnt good. Wasnt great. Was ELITE. You’re seeing elite level quarterbacking. Stop nitpicking his game and enjoy the ride. We havent had elite level QB play here in 25 goddamn years. Dont take it for granted
     
  19. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Oh wow! so you are saying 2 of the best receivers in the game really don't make a difference? LOL gosh. Everything else is open because of those 2. Take them away and the defenses can now stack the box to stop the run.
     
  20. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to see what Clayton and Duper could do with todays rules. Duper was pretty dang fast, wasn't he world class sprinter? Clayton had what like 18 TD's one year?
     
  21. BigBadBrett

    BigBadBrett Member

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    Take away Tua and we know things go downhill quickly.
    It’s really a combo of a talented QB, talented skill players, a not horrible OL, and a coach that understands how to scheme to get the most out of what he had. It’s everyone having a symbiotic relationship across the offense.
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Taking away Hill and Waddle would vastly drop offensive production. Their speed and route running abilities are difficult to defend against. However.. the offense would still be a major improvement over last year. You can see Tua isn't the same QB as last year, and of course McDaniel is a much better OC than we've had in a long time.
     
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  23. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Trent Dilfer nailed it a few years ago with his evaluation. All the things they say about Tua (processing speed, accuracy, timing) in this video are now being shown in the NFL. This was before he even went to Alabama.

     
  24. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I came here to post this video. Interesting. Dilfer's appraisal of Tua coming out of high school was remarkable.

    Also, I'm glad to know I've been pronouncing "Hawaii" incorrectly for all of my life and can now correct that.
     
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  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Reading comprehension is a skill I said at the start of my second paragraph, which you actually quoted - Obviously Hill and Waddle make a difference

    However,
    - We have seen what happens when Tua is out of this offense. It goes from league leading to the cellar.
    - We have seen what happens when you put Tua in aa crappy Brian Flores offense even with Waddle and Gesicki who are 2/3s of his top receivers this year.
    - We have seen the difference Tyreek Hill makes to Pat Mahomes’ QB rating (i.e.. not that much in a well run team)
     
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  26. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  27. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    yeah, but then you explain how they really don't LOL.
    Clearly you think it is mostly Tua which is great. I think taking out Hill and Waddle would make a massive difference. Defenses could stack the line, and they could press the other lessor WR's.
     
  28. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure what's being debated. Last year, Tua was in a bad system with a confrontational unbelieving head coach and mediocre (at best) weapons. Not just that, but he was drafted in year #2 of a full foundational rebuild, so there wasn't even an established culture on the team. Then, he was thrown into the starting lineup to replace a well-liked highly experienced uber-professional leader in the locker room who actually made the team competitive. That had to cost Tua points in the locker room.

    A lot of people said that they couldn't call him THE problem because we hadn't see him perform in a competent situation. Others said that giving him weapons and a coaching staff that schemed to his strengths wouldn't matter because he didn't have the physical tools to be a good QB. It was said many times that he didn't have the arm strength to succeed and that he threw to the first read (even though his completion % was top-10). When he said he didn't know all of the plays and couldn't audible in his first season, it was suggested that he either didn't care about or couldn't comprehend Gailey's system.

    Lackadaisical? Check.
    Ignorant? Check.
    Bad? Check.

    Now, he's got everything he could ask for and he's playing well. There's no debate that Hill was a godsend for Tua. But Hill was a godsend for McDaniel. And Waddle. And Gesicki. But to suggest that anybody else would put up numbers that would be a top-10 historical season if they are maintained, is nonsense. What we're seeing is what happens when a good QB is put into an optimal situation.

    The answer to whether Hill or Tua should get credit for the turnaround is a simple one: "Yes".
     
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  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Obviously if you take the best two receivers away from any QB, their production will drop. I guess I don't see the argument here.

    Tua is throwing guys open...he's throwing before they make their breaks. I was hard on Tua, but he's proven me wrong on every one of them. This offense runs like it does because of Tua.
     
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  31. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Those are some insane numbers. Stick a fork in the debate about arm strength. And also, let the Stephen A. Smiths of the world know that their "he throws it 5 yards and they run it to the house" deflection is officially quantifiable BS.
     
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  32. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Reading comprehension is a skill.
    I was replying to your assertion in post #3567 “It is really not that simple. Taking the 2 best receivers out of the lineup the offense would be like last years.”
    In response I provided context and argument as to why this assertion is wrong. The two word answer is Brian Flores.
    Also
    - If you remove WR1 and WR2 from Tua, as a comparison you have to do it for all other QBs.
    - The resources spent on Hill and Waddle would not disappear. We could have built the best OL in football with Armstead and whoever we drafted and traded for., we could have built the best DB corps in the league, so Tua wouldn’t need to carry the team by himself.

    However to address your argument directly.

    If we look at Tyreek Hill and Pat Mahomes.in KC.
    In 2018 to 2021 Mahomes had passer ratings of 113.8, 105.3, 106.2 and 98.5
    Tyreek Hill had a passer rating when targeted of 110.9, 113.5, 129.1 and 103.7
    When you plug in Hill’s target percentage you can calculate that Mahomes’ ratings when targeting people other than Hill were 114.9, 102.2, 96.3 and 103.8.
    Taking that over 4 years gives Mahomes a passer rating of 114.3 when targeting Hill and 103.8 when targeting other receivers, with Hill being targeted on 27.3% of plays.
    So for each 1% of snaps played by Hill, Mahomes’ passer rating increased by 0.288 passer rating points.
    Assuming that Hill provides a similar bonus to all QBs passing to him:
    With Hill being targeted on 34.9% of snaps that’s an increase to Tua’s passer rating of 10.1 passer rating points. Which would still be leading the league in passer rating made at 108.3 to the next best Geno Smith at 108.0.

    Doing the same exercise for Waddle based on last year’s numbers Waddle is worth +5.6 passer rating points,

    This put’s Tua’s rating when throwing to TEs, RBs and backup WRs at 102.4 which would be #6 in the league, remembering that all the QBs in front of him get the benefit of throwing to their WR1 and WR2.

    Note for cbrad: I did the maths on the train on the way to work, so I apologise if there are any errors c
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2022
  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I'd make the argument that if you took either of them away, the offense will have to make serious adjustments. They're playing well because defenses have to decide which will get extra coverage. And now, they have to be more concerned about the other receivers. We're going to be good as long as Tua makes his pre-snap reads.

    My biggest concern right now is how the vertical game will perform when hands get cold and the balls get harder. Also, whether Tua's accuracy will maintain in frigid temperatures.
     
  34. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Good luck trying to press WR's in a Mike McDaniel system. There is no way he would just let his receivers stand there and be pressed all day. There would be even more motion than we see now to make sure at least 1 receiver is getting a free release. You can go and watch plays we run with Hill and Waddle on the side line, our other receivers do still get open.

    Taking Hill and Waddle off of any QB would make a massive difference. Just look at Herbert this year without his 2 WR's, he looks like Tua from year 1 and 2. Look at Rodgers, one of the best QB's of all time and how much he is struggling with no valid options.
     
  35. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    This is the thing all these "he's throwing to wide open guys" just don't or refuse to see. Most of those wide open receptions are because Tua has thrown the ball before the WR even makes his break, by the time the WR breaks the ball is right there. We saw both Teddy and Skylar waiting on WR to make cuts and get open before throwing the pass, that is the main difference why the offence works so well under Tua.

    After watching the Dilfer video yesterday what we are seeing now is what Tua has always been. Even coming out of high school his timing, accuracy and processing were exceptional. The interesting thing in that video was how Dilfer was saying that Tua actually threw the ball too hard and they were teaching him to take something off his throws. Obviously that hip injury effected him massively, I'm betting this time next year his arm strength won't be a conversation either.
     
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  36. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    I love Leroy Hoard's reactions during this.
     
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  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    all that equals...Just give Tua decent protection and he will shred you..Thats what it always came down to, thats how you get exploit the elite skillset that the Qb has, thats why people missed the evaluation and projection so much..
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    here is something the pundits and poor evaluators don't see.

    We've all see how Tua made the throw to Smith for the walkoff TD in the ncaa champ game, we saw him look one way and feel and guage the other, then release, pretty simple eye manipulation for Tua on that one.

    however, when protected, what he's doing is exactly that now all over the field, he has this uncanny ability to just feel, gauge and pheripherally see his intended target.
     
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  39. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You still don't understand that taking the 2 great WR's out of the lineup would negatively affect the other positions. You are assuming their production would continue to be the same. Here is a great video on how Waddle and Hill force the defenses to defense differently.

     
  40. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    This is not a Tua thing, but you make my point perfectly. Taking away great weapons affects most QB's stats
     
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