Tua is not the Problem

No. The part about watching a different game. They just are seeing a different facet of the game that they think is more important than you do.

 

They’re literally hyper analyzing every throw and decision demanding perfection when no other qb is held to that standard. Look around the league.


Completion Percentage: 65%
Passer Rating: 107.8
Passing TD: 24
Passing INT: 5
Passing Yards: 3,238
Yards per Attempt: 8.6

what else do you want, exactly? You want mahomes? Allen? Herbert? Those guys miss throws too. Love the one youre with. Marino poisoned this fanbase bc the fans all think if you dont have the top qb in the league you cant compete which is amazing bc WE NEVER WON **** WITH 13.

 

Are you sure about that at this point? To me this just screams agenda, a personal belief, or the stubbornness of simply not wanting to be wrong no matter the cost. These people seem to find more content in the misery of losing games and watching Tua struggle just to say "I told you so" as opposed to enjoying us winning along with him playing well. I don't understand it. I've seen similar things happen with other sports teams I follow. I remember people on the Philadelphia 76ers forum straight up taking suspensions and bans over arguments about Evan Turner. It was such a polarizing topic and it lasted for nearly four years. We did this with Tannehill as well, but nowhere near this level. We never won anything with him like we have with Tua. Tua hasn't even had a losing season yet here. I guess it really doesn't matter in the end. For whatever reason this is going to continue.

 

Now Tua can't move around the pocket to create time for receivers to get open. Every day some new ludicrous point is made about what Tua can't do. I gotta stop reading this thread.

 

For me there are only 3 things left for Tua to prove this year:
1. Play well to end the season
2. Help take the team to the playoffs
3. Win a playoff game

That's it. He's proven basically everything else, from playing elite over a sustained period (within a season) to carrying the team when necessary, to overcoming adversity. If he can do #1 and #2 then the debate should be over about whether to keep him or not. I can wait for #3 until we have a better defense, but doing that this year would be icing on the cake.

 

Yes, I do believe that the other posters are not watching a different game. Yes, I believe they prioritize different skills.

 

I don't believe Tua has "carried" the team.

 

I believe hes talking about for games. And yeah, theres at least 3 games he took over.

 

If there is any one player carrying this team its Tyreek, not Tua.

 

"Carried the team when necessary", he said. And, yes he has done that in quite a few games this year.

 

Tua was ok in the game. Obviously, not great. I was somewhat impressed that he was able to go up there, in those conditions and play decent at times.
We are certainly going to need more than decent or so so to have any chance at the playoffs this year. No, we now need to see greatness from him to have any chance.

 

Tua has the first and third best passer rating vs the Bills D this year. If you took the totality of his two games, he has a 111 rating. There are 3 QBs that broke a 100 vs them, Tua did it twice. One in Buffalo, at night, in the cold and snow, and the other was in a victory with a 123.8. The Bills have given up a passer rating against of 83 this year. Your standards for Tua need to be adjusted. (The Dolphins have given up a 98.2 )

It's shaping up to be an interesting end of the season for Tua. The Packers have given up a 92 passer rating against, but the Pats are at an 81.5, and the Jets a 79 for the season. Those last two games are going to be fun to watch.

 

I have a feeling that the power run game is going to be more and more on display these last three games, because that's what you do when linebackers want to play 10-15 yards off the ball to stop Tyreek and company over the middle. That's the counter to the league's counter, which then lets Tua get back to work on those 15-20 yard shots over the middle.

For our defense, I'm worried that we're nowhere near playoff caliber. But that's okay as long as the offense can generate 35+ a game when needed in a shootout. Green Bay should be a good test this week.

 

Is it Tua, or is it two dominant receivers? I'm fine with it not being Tua as long as we always intend to give him high powered weapons.

 

It's a combination of McDaniel + Tua + Hill + Waddle. Need all 4. We had Waddle last year, but with only one fast and good route running WR the defense can adjust. Covering 2 of them is a nightmare. However you also need a QB that can make decisions quickly and throw the ball accurately enough to take advantage of this. Tua isn't the only QB that can do this, but most QBs would not be able to. You saw how vast the difference was when Bridgewater came in even if that was small sample size. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, McDaniel is an elite OC. He should never give up OC duties as HC.

All 4 deserve credit. Also, from a purely statistical point of view you do NOT get a 17.7 point improvement in passer rating putting one elite WR on the team. Maybe half that, but not that huge. That's the difference between an average and elite passing game. No single WR can dominate a game that way. Even elite QBs have trouble providing that kind of difference in efficiency.

 

If Tua wasn’t the factor, then we wouldn’t have lost to Cincinnati, New York nor Minnesota. If memory serves me correct, Hill had lights out games…and we still lost all 3

 

Tua is good enough to take a good, well-balanced, well-coached team to a championship.

I feel strongly that Chris Grier will never assemble a good enough team around him.

When you miss on draft picks or overpay for 'not-great' FAs, your team dramatically lacks Depth.
The lack of depth is what lost the Dolphins the game on Saturday. Offensive line still not good enough to run when the opponent knows you want to run.
Also, our secondary is practically down to Walmart baggers.
The Austin Jackson and Noah Igby picks in 2020 are DOOMING this season.
If we had quality players at those two positions, we wouldve won the game Saturday.
Dolphins are never going to be able to escape the gravitational pull of Grier's incompetence.

While Justin Herbert, himself, wouldnt make the difference, he wouldn't have caused the kind of fall-out that uncertainty about Tua that led to so much CRAP the last 2 years...and that led to Stephen Ross tampering to get Brady and costing the team draft picks that the Dolphins BADLY needed, and lacking them probably Dooms 2023.

 

This is the most sane, on the money post I've read here in a while. Congratulations. I really can't wait for the day Grier is finally fired.

 

Of course Tua is a part of it. No one said he isn't.

Being a part is much different than being the cause. I believe you could put any good/great QB in this offense and have the same success (possibly more success). That's why I don't believe it's as much Tua as it is other factors.

 

And, The Zero Context Post From A Two Month Old Tweet Award goes to...

 

Look when it comes to Tua, it doesn't really matter to some. It really doesn't. Tua could...

Throw for over 300 yards per game
Complete 80% of his passes
Throw for 3 or more TD's
Throw zero interceptions
Have a 110+ passer rating every game...

The Dolphins could win out...
Make the playoffs...
Maybe even make a run at the AFC title game...
And even by some miracle make it to the Super Bowl...

And the SAME BS arguments would be made against him.

 

You right now:

 

Yup.

 

Basing an argument on hypotheticals is not a good way of discussing this. Here, let me show you why:

Tua could throw for 100 yards a game
Complete 50% off his passes
Throw 1td a game
Throw 2 ints a game
Have a 75 rating

The Dolphins could:
Lose out
Miss the playoffs

And Tuanon would STILL insist that it's not Tua, it's everyone else.

What do you think of my hypotheticals?

 

Considering that almost every Tua supporter agreed Tua played terribly in SF and LA and that he was mostly to blame for those losses I don't think your hypothetical is that realistic.

However, we have seen Tua put up fantastic numbers only to see the goalposts being constantly moved: he still hasn't done X, Y or Z so he really is just an average QB (I mean seriously.. leading the league in passer rating and he's no better than average lol). So TDK's hypothetical is closer to the truth here. The main uncertainty in TDK's hypothetical is how people would react if we had a deep playoff run. But the trend among anti-Tua posters is to just keep moving the goalposts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Tua dissed even in that scenario.

 

How many accounts do you have here anyway?

 

* THIS JUST IN *

Steve Young was removed from the Hall of Fame effective immediately as it was brought to the attention of the Hall's directors that Young was just an average NFL QB but was benefitted greatly in his career by Jerry Rice's catching/running abilities.

Sounds absurd right ? Sounds idiotic right ? Sounds totally ridiculous, correct ?

This is an example of the type of totally clueless posts that are presented daily here.

 

I have been a supporter of Tua (although I was not big in drafting him at the time). My initial critique however wasn’t HIM per say, it was all of the holes the offense had. I believe you and I had many discussions on that topic. The entire offense needed revamping and ONE player wasn’t going to make the difference at the time of his drafting. Now the offense has been revamped and Tua has been able to show what he can do given the rights tools…much like Allen and his receiver corps…much like Mahomes and his receiver corps, et al.

My biggest frustration with the entire Tua conversation, as you illustrated, the goal post keeps moving when it comes to him. Every criticism of his past year’s performance has been debunked…the dink and dunk, can’t throw the long ball , can’t extend plays, etc…Tua has played lights out this season and instead of giving credit where credits is due, the goal post moves. It’s always a “yea but (insert excuse here)”. Tua has two REALLY bad games against SF and SD and THOSE two games are supposed to validate every criticism of Tagovailoa despite the fact he’s clearly demonstrated the exact opposite all season long.

That’s why I’m of the firm belief it’s not going to matter what he does. Those who are hell bent against him are going to be overly critical of him and his play, regardless of what he does.

Being a Tua supporter, I’m objective enough to call out his shortcomings and call the bad games he’s had. What gets me are those who are opposed to him can’t be equally objective and admit he’s played damned good football this year and we actually have a quarterback that has a legitimate shot and taking us to the promised land.

Will it happen? Maybe…maybe not but any objective observer can’t honestly say that Tua is this team’s problem.

 

AND because he had a weak arm.

 

Very true. Has nerve being elected in the Hall in the first place.

 

No one is moving goalposts. It's the same post. Tua put up fantastic numbers against bad teams.

Against good teams, he's played poorly against on the whole. In Buffalo last week, he was made into a game manager. He had a 49.7 PFF grade! He had his lowest IAY/PA on the season. LOWER than last year's seasonal average! McDaniel knows he doesn't have arm strength for the weather. They threw only 55% of the time, and he still only completed about 56% of his passes. And then when there was actual snow, Tua did NOTHING when it mattered most. McDaniel understands what he has in Tua. Some of you who "know" he's a franchise savior are so delusional I will feel bad when he lets you down.

 

Goalposts are being moved almost after every game Tua plays well. The most recent case was people claiming Tua would play bad against Buffalo's #2 defense because he can't play well against good defenses AND because it's an away game in the cold in December in a playoff race etc. So what happens after that game? First, the claim is he played "OK" not good, which is laughable considering his 104 passer rating and 29 points scored against a defense allowing only 17.9 per game. Second, the revisionist history comes out that "Ohh.. Buffalo's defense is actually overrated!!"

lol.. that's the goalposts moved after just the latest game. And that "overrated defense" argument was also used early in the season. Prior to the Ravens and first Bills game those games were considered good tests of Tua's ability to play against tough defenses. Then after he plays well it's like.. ohh look at all the injuries etc. For a long time the claim was that the injuries Buffalo had in their first game were somehow far worse than in all others. I posted Buffalo's injuries per game this season in a previous post showing completely the opposite.

Again.. moving goalposts.

Other examples:
- Can't produce at an elite level (this was stats based too)
- Can't play with a bad OL like Herbert
- Can't carry the team when necessary (in certain games where the QB has to take over like that Ravens game)
- Can't throw the deep ball
- In general can't overcome adversity

etc. That's just off the top of my head right now. But no question goalposts keep getting moved by the anti-Tua crowd. They just can't accept that a QB they didn't like early on is proving them wrong repeatedly.
-

 

His PFF grade against Buffalo was a 49.7. Keep quoting passer rating though like it means everything.

 

PFF is subjective. Keep quoting subjective grades as if they're somehow objective.

Also, given how high the correlation between passer rating is and win% over large sample size, Tua being #1 in passer rating after 375 attempts is not easily dismissed.

 

You can look at DVOA:

 

Yup.. DVOA also has a ton of hidden subjective parameters in it, mostly in the form of "success points":
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Furthermore, because Football Outsiders knows they'll get creamed for using such subjective parameters they don't publish the actual formula. So it's not just subjective in terms of what they consider a "success", it's black box so no one can critique it in detail. No one interested in doing good statistical analysis would use that. Of course, football doesn't attract much attention in science so stuff like DVOA and ESPN's QBR (also black box) survive. But you can't really call these "stats".

Regardless.. Tua played terribly against SF and LA. His passer ratings reflect that too. That's been fully acknowledged by Tua supporters.

 

A lot of front offices actually use FO. No one blindly uses QB rating quite like you do.

 

Front offices aren't bastions of scientific credibility. Stuff like DVOA wouldn't get past the review stage of any decent scientific journal, i.e., it wouldn't ever be published in the first place.