Tua is not the Problem

Of course, but this noise tends to die down. The mob is fickle. Watson wouldn't be the first piece of crap in the NFL to do something terrible and then go on and succeed once the anger quiets down.

Hell, the Dolphins have a piece of shi* on their team named Tyreek Hill who beat his kid and choked his pregnant girlfriend.

 

The first 3 sentences are fine. The last sentence is not. You don't know what Tua's ceiling performance-wise will be. Steve Young also had a lot of the same physical limitations but is #1 in era-adjusted efficiency with 3000+ attempts in the SB era. Not saying Tua is Young, but just like it's hard to use a small sample to project the future, you can't use it to say it's not representative of the future.

 

The game is a lot different than when Steve Young played. What QB in the last 10-15 years became elite without an elite tool?

 

Even in Young's days that was extremely unlikely. Doesn't really matter regarding my post. Point is, you have to wait and see to find out what Tua can do. Can't just assume he won't have many seasons of elite play just like you can't assume he will.

 

Of course not, but that's my projection based on his career statistics, injury history, the league's talent, and his physical toolsets.

 

That's fine. Just pointing out that this projection of yours isn't "a better representation" like the other sentences were in your post. It's no better than a projection stating that a full offseason of work will allow McD and Tua to adapt to those defensive adjustments they faced late in the season. So we wait and see what happens.

 

Which didn't seem to have any impact on his play which is what I am talking about. Its reasonable to believe that Watson will never mentally be the same again because of what happened.

We are talking about something that is essentially unprecedented and so far he looks bad and looks bad when he pretty much has to be top 5.

 

I mean he didn't have any type of offseason or pre-season with the team, and he didn't have it himself. He didn't play football in how long? Things are going to be very off. Will never mentally be the same again? I disagree completely. There's a lot in play for his bad performance.

 

Well you can agree or disagree if you want but that is based on nothing. We have no idea where he is mentally and it would be impossible for us to guess which just adds to why nobody should want to be the team that is giving him a 54 million dollar cap hit. Maybe his future is of a good QB which would still make the trade really bad.

And he was with them in the offseason and even played in one preseason game in which he was also bad.

 

Well you stating he'll never be the same again is also based on nothing. Pure conjecture. I agree that using such a small sample is very dumb. He's too young, too talented, and has too large of a sample of being great to be this bad. He'll bounceback.

 

I didn't say he would never be the same I said he may never be the same. If we were all Browns fans we would all be nervous.

 

Well you can play the maybe game about anything. However, factually there's been a plethora of players in his situation of being caught, suspended, and returning to being great.

Browns fans have a massive sample of a QB who was great and can stay healthy. I'm more nervous about the Dolphins QB situation.

 

You would have trouble thinking of too many with this kind of scrutiny

And so far the Browns have just a season of him being bad to show for it. Nothing to be nervous about with Tua because fifth year or not they aren't married to him.

 

They have 6 games, which is nothing in comparison to his career.

Not having a QB, and needing to re-enter the QB lottery with 1st rounders that won't be high makes me immensely nauseous.

 

Alternatively (taking your anti-Tua bias out of it) the system was designed around Tua's strengths rather than trying to hide his weaknesses. Yes, its just wordplay and semantics based on our perspectives with yours being a negative and mine being a positive.

 

I completely disagree.

Troy Aikman.

 

I mean, he literally hadn't played in what a year? Two years?

 

There is nothing false about his statement. Any offense he leads WILL BE limited by HIS physical limitations. That is a fact, regardless of whether you think he has many limitations, or only a few limitations.

 

The way to beat the system is to force the QB to play to his weaknesses, which is what Stale said occurred.

Given that on an empty field, every NFL QB can make the throws, offenses are indeed designed to minimize the weak parts of the QBs game while maximizing the areas that he excels at.

 

Almost no one considers Aikman in the top 10. He's usually listed in top 20ish or so, and his z-score rating over his career is 0.4316. That's pretty spot on for someone who is generally not considered elite (like Brady, Rodgers, Montana.. seriously who puts him up there), but is solidly 2nd tier. Stats are VERY good at estimating individual ability for highly influential players like a QB with very large sample size.

 

I didn't say the sentence was false. I said it wasn't "fine". The implication (given the previous sentences) was that Tua's ceiling is less than that of an elite QB. I took issue with that, and StaleTacos' response confirmed my interpretation was correct. He said: "What QB in the last 10-15 years became elite without an elite tool?" which confirms that the implied performance ceiling was less than that of an elite QB.

So what I said is correct.

 

You know what is worse? Not even having that option because you locked yourself into a QB who isn't worth being locked into which is what the Browns may have done.

 

It doesn't matter where you rank him overall. He's a HoFer, and he was considered elite when he was playing.

 

Where you rank him overall is essential to calculating the correlation between perceived ability of the QB and what the stats say. Can't calculate a correlation otherwise. So your example supports my claim.

 

Well of course. Any OC is going to design an offense around your QBs strengths. Even Flo did that. The point is though you are going to be limited as an OC with a QB that is limited physically. You'll need to stay within a particular framework, and smart defenses will understand said framework which will make it easier for them to defend.

 

More likely they found their franchise QB.

 

Yeah ok dude

 

I need to bookmark this post.

 

The_Dark_Knight from thephins.com will call me out. Oh noes!

 

From Matt Cassel of cbssports.com:

 

No way Wilson and Watson are ending that low. That's ignoring their past history of elite play for one statistically anomalous year. Even Rodgers might be undervalued. He had one down year after 2 years in a row being #1 in passer rating. We'll see.

As for the Dolphins I really hope that's vastly undervaluing Tua. He's got to prove it though. Long offseason..

 

Drew Brees.

 

Did you watch the offense Flo put on the field in 2021? That was pure trash because it ignored what Tua is good at and tried to turn him into an RPO QB.

 

It's just proof that opinions are like a**holes. Everybody has one and we all think those belonging to others smell worse than our own.

 

I can't hate this list. Most ridiculous lists would have Purdy in the top 10 at the moment. I do think Tua is better than the four guys directly ahead of him, at least. The only ridiculous ranking here is Hurts at #2.

 

1. Mentioning an extreme outlier and thinking it's likely is just silly.
2.

 

I never understood ranking all-time greats- it feels pretty futile to me. People love to argue that stuff though. Right now it's LeBron vs Jordan vs Kobe. They're all amazing players...why do we have to try to rank them 1, 2, and 3? I'd say Jordan is the best and inevitably, someone on the internet gets butt-hurt like my opinion means anything in their life.

 

Tua's wide receivers do all the work!

 

Aikman is nowhere near an all-time great, not when you poll people and not with stats. This isn't Jordan vs. Lebron or Pele vs. Messi. This like asking whether Curry is in the league of Jordan. It's ludicrous to say we should ignore such differences.

Poll people and you'll get Brady, Montana at the top, others like Young, Rodgers, Peyton, Brees and now Mahomes will in almost everyone's list be well above someone like Aikman. And that's the same if you do it by era-adjusted stats. Aikman is solidly 2nd tier (like top 20 or so) when comparing everyone, nowhere close to an all-time great.