I’m not making any argument for or against the drafting of any particular quarterback. This is purely informational but it does illustrate how much of a gamble drafting a first round quarterback can be. Since 2000, there have been 69 quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. Now of those 69 quarterbacks, 16 of those quarterbacks have had a playoff appearance by the team that drafted them. That’s an important caveat. Of those 16 quarterbacks, all but 1 have a playoff victory. Of those 15 quarterbacks, 11 have had a conference championship appearance. Of those 11 quarterbacks, 9 have had Super Bowl appearances. Of those 9 quarterbacks, only 5 have had Super Bowl victories: Rodgers, Roethlisburger, Manning, Mahomes and Stafford. Statistically since 2000 23% of 1st round quarterbacks have made the playoffs 21.74% of 1st round quarterbacks have a playoff victory 15.94% of of 1st round quarterbacks make a conference championship appearance. 13% of 1st round quarterbacks have made a Super Bowl appearance. 7.25% of 1st round quarterbacks have had a Super Bowl victory. Now here’s the REAL kicker. Of the number of quarterbacks listed above, only 5 were drafted in the top 10 of their draft year…Mahomes, Stafford, Manning, Burrow and Allen so if we apply that parameter… 7.25% of 1st round quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 since 2000 have had a playoff win and a conference championship appearance. 5.68% of top 10 drafted quarterbacks have had a Super Bowl appearance (minus Allen) 4.35% of quarterbacks drafted top 10 have actually won a Super Bowl; Mahomes, Manning and Stafford. An interesting question to pose and debate could very well be, just how important is it to draft a quarterback top 10 with the data presented here?
My argument, with many things like this, is that because of the Patriots obscene stretch of unprecedented success, followed by what the Chiefs have done, you need to throw these kind of Super Bowl related arguments out the window. And to a degree, conference title ones too, in the AFC. There just haven't been legit chances.
That's fair, but that's really dialing it in. To me, the glaring stat is 23% of 1st round quarterbacks have made the playoffs, meaning a staggering 77% haven't. That's not talking playoff wins, mind you, that's just getting there in the first place. I also think it's fair to say that making the playoffs is somewhat of a team stat...but I get hung up on that 77% failure rate for all 1st round QB's. I'm honestly not as interested in the top-10 picks because those were lousy teams forced to rebuild. You'd hope they would win eventually, but it makes sense why they didn't make the playoffs right away. Interestingly enough, Tua and Tannehill both fell into that 23% of QB's who made the playoffs.
fair enough. I think its mostly a combination of very bad teams picking at the top, and teams often over drafting QBs. Guys who should be 3rd or 4th round picks get taken in the 1st just because they're QBs. Michael Pennix, JJ McCarthy, Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Jordan Love all in recent years. Yes, Love eventually developed, but some mid round picks do.
I compare it to playing a winnable lottery. As in the odds aren't completely stacked against you. The way I see it, you have about a 25% chance of landing a franchise quarterback with a FRDP. Those aren't odds you take unless you're looking for a franchise quarterback because in the unlikelihood you do hit on one, Your team is set for years to come. Therefore you play the odds despite them not being in your favor. We see it every year. Teams reach for quarterbacks.
My intent is not to dismiss the importance of the quarterback — it’s the most important position in sports. But we’ve repeatedly seen teams, especially those drafting in the top 10, convince themselves that a quarterback alone will save a broken franchise. The idea is always the same: “We have our guy — now we’ll build around him.” History shows that approach has failed far more often than it’s succeeded. Take Andrew Luck. The Colts didn’t need a rebuild — they needed a quarterback. Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, and the team collapsed behind replacement-level quarterbacks like Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky, and Kerry Collins. Luck stepped into a roster that was already built — it simply lacked a quarterback. That’s a best-case scenario. But had Luck been drafted by the Jets, the Lions, or the Dolphins at that time — unstable organizations with major roster holes — his career likely looks very different. Contrast that with Aaron Rodgers, drafted 24th overall by Green Bay and allowed to develop behind Brett Favre on a stable, competitive team. Rodgers didn’t save the Packers — he inherited a strong foundation. Now compare that to quarterbacks like David Carr, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston — all top picks placed into dysfunctional situations and expected to fix everything immediately. Carr was physically and mentally broken behind a nonexistent offensive line. Mayfield and Winston were asked to lead teams with systemic roster and organizational issues. The lesson isn’t that quarterbacks don’t matter. It’s that drafting one early doesn’t fix structural problems — and in many cases, it ruins the quarterback instead. Quarterbacks don’t save franchises. Franchises enable quarterbacks.
