I've been using, and constantly tweaking, a power ranking formula for the past few years to help me in my office pool. Basically I wanted to help myself look past the record and reputation of a team and place a little more value on the strength of their opponents. Using a formula that is probably approaching BCS complexity, sheer ridiculousness and inaccuracies, I share it here for your amusement as well as collective scorn and ridicule. Included is the "power points" each team has earned this year based on who they've beaten, when, who they've lost to, and whether or not they've covered the spread. In () is last week's ranking. Enjoy! ------------------------------ It was a bad week for the rankings as teams who outranked their opponents were just 9-6-1, after going 13-1 the previous week. But for the first time this season, the top 5 remains unchanged since they all came out on top in Week 11. 1 Tennessee Titans 18.740 (1)Fought back against a tough division foe and retain the top spot, though the Giants narrowed the lead. And it should continue to be noted that the Titans are tied with the easiest NFL schedule this year. Their opponents so far are a combined 40-59-1. They are tied with the Jets whom they play next week. If they can make it through that game and the Lions lose to Tampa, it will be a week 13 matchup of 11-0 vs. 0-11. 2 New York Giants 18.110 (2)Impressive and dominant victory. They will face test after test until the end of the season, and up next week is Arizona. 3 Carolina Panthers 13.260 (3)It looked like inconsistency was going to strike this team again, but they pulled out of their trap game against Detroit. They face a tough road game this week in Atlanta. 4 Arizona Cardinals 12.390 (4)Could move up the board by defending their undefeated home record against the Giants. One of the best matchups of the season so far in what will be a very important Week 12 for a lot of teams. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.330 (5)Could be a trap game this week against the Lions before an important 3 game stretch against all the teams in their entire NFC South division. A division which has quietly supplanted the NFC East as the best division in football and is most likely to produce the NFC's two wild card teams. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers 11.465 (7)Important, though close, victory against San Diego. They move ahead in the AFC North after Baltimore's loss the the Giants. 7 New York Jets 11.430 (12)Impressive victory against the Patriots. But I'll believe this team is for real if they put up a good fight on the road against the undefeated Titans. 8 Indianapolis Colts 10.630 (9)After a 3-4 start, this team was "mathematically" ranked 23rd after Week 8. Now with three straight victories, they've come on strong. And to make matters better they don't play a team with a winning record until Week 17 when they host the Titans. If the Titans have already fallen by then, the Colts may be playing the Titan bench as they coast to what could be a season ending 9-game winning streak. 9 Dallas Cowboys 9.970 (17)Biggest riser of the week, moving up 8 spots. They've got Romo back, and two weak opponents coming up. Though my playoff projections don't give them much hope, they could earn a wild card spot with victories against the Giants or Steelers. 10 Washington Redskins 9.670 (8)Only 3 tough games left, Giants, Ravens, Eagles and the rest are against pushovers like Seattle, Cincy, and S.F. They give the NFC East the most likely hope of a wildcard team, but they'll be battling it out with a lot of teams for that 6 seed. 11 Baltimore Ravens 9.620 (10)Tough schedule for the Ravens coming up. Though 4 of 6 are at home, the Ravens still have Philly, Washington, Pittsburgh, a game at Dallas, and Jacksonville on their schedule. If they make they playoffs, they'll have earned it.12 New England Patriots 9.610 (6)After the biggest jump in the rankings following Week 10, the Patriots drop the most after their loss to the Jets. A HUGE matchup for the AFC East this weekend down at Dolphin Stadium. If the Pats lose this one, they'll likely be done. Their two easy games are back to back west coast games against Seattle and Oakland. 13 Miami Dolphins 9.540 (13) The good news: Miami as the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the NFL after the Colts. The bad news: Miami continues to play to the level of their opponents. More good news: they also continue with that 4th quarter swagger and pull out victories when they matter. This Sunday at Dolphin Stadium is the biggest game the Dolphins have had since... (I had to look it up ) December 7th 2003. And probably the biggest home game since they last made the playoffs and played so bad they made George Bush choke on a pretzel. If they can complete the first season sweep of a division opponent since 2003 (The Jets and the Bills) they can make us believers again. Remember what that felt like 5 years ago? 14 Denver Broncos 8.510 (19) 15 Atlanta Falcons 8.375 (11) 16 Philadelphia Eagles 8.135 (14) 17 Green Bay Packers 7.370 (20) 18 Minnesota Vikings 7.160 (16) 19 New Orleans Saints 6.590 (21) 20 Chicago Bears 6.580 (15) 21 Buffalo Bills 4.800 (18) 22 Cleveland Browns 4.680 (23) 23 San Diego Chargers 4.610 (22) 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 2.765 (24) 25 Houston Texans 1.120 (25) 26 San Francisco 49ers 0.075 (30) 27 St. Louis Rams -0.185 (26) 28 Cincinnati Bengals -0.415 (31) 29 Oakland Raiders -0.460 (27) 30 Seattle Seahawks -1.175 (29) 31 Kansas City Chiefs -1.780 (28) 32 Detroit Lions -6.500 (32)Which of their remaining opponents will be Detroit's Baltimore? Tampa? Tennessee? Minnesota? Indianapolis? New Orleans? Green Bay? That is one tough schedule. They may just go 0-16. Who would have thought that just a year after Miami and New England that we'd have two teams this close to perfection and imperfection again?
His'n's Purely Mathematical Final Record and Playoff Projections. Besides playoff seeding order, the only change in playoff projections since last week is Green Bay winning the NFC North and making the playoffs instead of Chicago. (The Dolphins can make just such a move this weekend with a victory over the Pats) Based purely on the impossibility that there will be no upsets in the last 6 weeks, if every team with more "power points" won every game every week, this is how the playoff picture would shape up: AFC EAST NYJ 12-4 NE 10-6 MIA 10-6 BUF 7-9 AFC NORTH PIT 12-4 BAL 9-7 CLE 6-10 CIN 2-13-1 AFC SOUTH TEN 16-0 IND 11-5 JAX 5-11 HOU 4-12 AFC WEST DEN 10-6 SD 6-10 OAK 3-13 KC 1-15 NFC EAST NYG 15-1 WAS 11-5 DAL 10-6 PHI 6-9-1 NFC NORTH GB 10-6 MIN 8-8 CHI 8-8 DET 0-16 NFC SOUTH CAR 13-3 TB 12-4 ATL 11-5 NO 7-9 NFC WEST ARI 12-4 SF 4-12 STL 3-13 SEA 2-14 AFC 1 TEN 2 PIT 3 NYJ 4 DEN 5 IND 6 NE NFC 1 NYG 2 CAR 3 ARI 4 GB 5 TB 6 WAS or ATL
