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KFFL - Matt Ryan Intrigues Dolphins

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by lbmclean_sj, Jan 6, 2008.

  1. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Yes but you have to value the positional worth of DE versus OLB in a 3-4 Parcells scheme. If I had to weigh the positional value I would say that a pass rushing OLB is twice as valuable as a DE in his scheme. And QB to the overall team success is even more valuable
     
  2. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    Every expert I've seen thus far doesn't have Ryan as one of the top 3 players in this draft and this simpleton fan completely agrees. Ryan's only had one productive year of college football and his one year of production wasn't reflective of a QB worthy of a top 5 selection. Taking him at #1 would be a major reach and a big mistake.
     
  3. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    But you can't reach on a QB just because you need one. Plus, who says Long can't play OLB in a 3-4. Groh said that's where he envisions him at in the NFL.
     
  4. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    QB, LOT, 4-3 pass rushing DE, 3-4 pass rushing OLB are the positions you almost always have to "reach" for. QB especially. On average a very good QB comes out once every two years. If you see one you grab him even if there are some minor concerns. You may not get another chance for five years. Pass rushers and left tackles are also usually reach picks because they are difficult to find. Its the difficulty in finding that rare combination of physical attributes needed for each position that makes those positions so valuable and makes teams "reach"

    Due to the difficulty in finding quality at those positions I dont consider it a "reach" when you draft those positions
     
  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    If he can play OLB then he's in the mix. I have read the same although it kind of surprised me. Derrick Harvey I can see, Chris Long, maybe. But you're right if Parcells thinks he can play OLB he's in the mix as a favorite alongside Gholston and Ryan
     
  6. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    He showed great flashes of potential in his sophmore year when he took over the starting job, played through a broken foot his junior year whuich obviously affected his production and almost singlehandedly kept Boston College in the hunt for number one his senior year. Taking the best QB prospect number one overall is never a mistake for a team that needs a QB unless that player turns out to be a bust.

    What experts are saying he'll be a bust? Are these experts ex pros or current pros or are they as Parcells called them "the cottage draft board industry" I have yet to see one person who has collected an NFL check say that Ryan isnt a franchise QB
     
  7. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    When you take a player you have ranked lower than several other players you have ranked higher and they all play a position of need, then you're reaching... which is what taking Ryan over Long, Gholston or Dorsey would be.

    Couldn't agree with you less on the "almost always have to reach on certain positions". When there's a Bledsoe, Manning, Palmer, Vick, etc guy then take him. But don't draft a QB at #1 when there's 3-4 guys at other need positions that are clearly ranked well ahead of the QB. Especially when there's several other QBs that aren't ranked much lower than that QB and you've already got a mostly untested QB prospect you were high on last year.
     
  8. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    Frankly, I see Long as a 3-4 DE, but Groh probably knows a little more about Long and how he'll transition to the NFL than I do. Just a little...
     
  9. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    And who are the ones collecting NFL checks that are saying he's a franchise QB? Who are the ones saying he should go #1? I've yet to see a name, link, etc for that.

    Here's what those know-nothings at Scouts, Inc said about him before the season:
    "However, his lack of elite arm strength and mobility does put a cap on his upside. His potential to develop into an effective starter or above-average backup should make him a late first-day pick if he stays healthy and improves his decision making in the face of pressure."

    Here's what Scott Wright says now:
    "A safe pick who should become a solid starter at the next level but probably isn't a franchise signal caller."

    Of course, any opinions that don't come from NFL employees are worthless, whether they be people that scout football for a living or simpleton fans. NFL guys like Wanny and Speilman know much better, so why question them?
     
  10. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    First off lets be clear here. I like Scott Wright and all the draft boards. I have never implied they "know nothing". I will say that if given a choice of listening to a pro or an ex pro or an internet guru, I'm going to put a little more credence in the professionals opinion. That doesnt mean I wont disagree with people both amateur and professional. It just means that when weighting outside sources, people that have drawn NFL paychecks get more of my ear then people on the outside looking in.

    Who was the announcer for the BC bowl game. Todd Blackledge? Every time you saw a BC game this year and there was a ex NFL guy announcing he said the guy was franchise quality and could be the first pick overall. I could find plenty of draft evaluations that have Ryan as a franchise QB and worthy of top pick. You seem to feel that there is some vast gulf of talent between Chris Long and Matt Ryan. I dont see it. I see about ten picks that can be used at number one and are basically interchangeable. Clady, Dorsey, Long, Long, Gholston, Ryan, Brohm, McFadden are all potential number one picks at this stage and all of them are reasonable picks. Remember the all star games and combine havent occured yet.
     
  11. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    Most TV announcers talk up the players in the game they're calling, though I don't recall any saying Ryan was #1 worthy, which we'll have to agree to disagree there. I do know in every Virginia game I've watched the commentators do everything but give away their first daughter to Chris Long.

    I agree that an NFL front office person, coach or player carries far more weight than an internet scout and certainly a common fan like myself. With that said, how much weight gets put on what Al Groh says then? When he says Long's the best not only do I listen, but so will Bill and Jeff.
     
  12. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Here is a good quote from Draft Daddy regarding consensus BAP and real BAP

    It is also important to establish the difference between consensus BAP and real BAP. In 2001 the Patriots selected Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour with the sixth overall selection. In Mel Kiper's final pre draft mock just a day before the draft, Seymour was projected to be taken around slot 20 in the first round - this was essentially his consensus value as a late first round (or early second round) pick. At the time it appeared that the Patriots were making the classic mistake of putting team need ahead of BAP value, and the pundits at the time commented as such.

    However as the years have passed it became apparent that the Patriots had actually pulled off the optimal draft pick - one that satisfied both team need and the condition of being the best available player on the board. In hindsight Seymour may have been a better pick than Gerard Warren taken at 3 overall! The point here is that if as a team your scouting process has identified a certain player as better than consensus value (and further if your scouts take character and systematic values into concern) then you should have faith in that scouting process and it's correct to disregard the consensus value.

    http://www.draftdaddy.com/theory/vol1num1.cfm

    Now obviously if the Parcells braintrust feels that Gholston or Long is head and shoulders above Ryan then they will draft Gholston or Long. But if they feel that all three are about equal in terms of talent then they'll figure out who helps them the most. That's really what the draft is about. Who is going to help you the most
     
  13. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    I do see a vast gulf of difference between the talent, production and potential of Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey and Vernon Gholston and Matt Ryan. I think many others do too.

    IMO Ryan isn't close to the production, talent or potential that Rodgers, Leinart and Quinn had heading into the draft and look where they went. To me, one of those front 7 defenders at #1 and a QB in rounds 2-4 is a much wiser investment then betting the house on a QB that's had one good college season with a lot of INTs.
     
  14. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Oh I agree that you have to take everything with a grain of salt. TV guys will talk up the players they are talking about, college coaches will talk up their players, etc. I love Chris Long and have talked him up on these boards and if we take him, trust me I'll be thrilled. I just happen to have a very high opinion on Ryan and I think Parcells will also. We'll see. Just because I think Ryan is the best choice for us long term doesnt mean I think Long or Gholston or Dorsey are going to be bad for us if we choose them
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Thats where we can agree to disagree. I think Ryan is far better than all three of the QBs you mentioned. I bashed Leinart and Quinn repeatedly before their drafts. I actually liked Rodgers but not as much as Ryan. The last QB I thought was a better prospect was Cutler. The one guy I think has a chance of being better this year is Flacco. But Flacco carries alot more risk. Can he transition his game to the NFL?
     
  16. general tso

    general tso New Member

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    I understand and believe in everything above, which is why, from a philosophical perspective, I think Cam/Randy did the right thing last year when they went with Ginn/Beck. They trusted their evaluations/board instead of making the popular/consensus pick. I disagreed with their evaluations, but not their draft board philosophy.

    I think we're primarily debating evaluations here. I'm saying I think Long, Gholston and Dorsey (and McFadden though for me he exits the equation due to relative lack of need) are clearly better pro prospects than Ryan, they play positions of need for us and there's other QBs that aren't far behind Ryan available later in the draft or on our current roster, so taking Ryan simply because QB is the most important position and remains unsettled is a reach. I think you're saying Ryan is right up there with those top 3-4 guys. That's our difference of opinion right now, and of course it's all subject to change over the next 3 months. I think I've seen enough of those guys to the point where I don't think my opinion will change though.
     
  17. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Its all good. Always love talking football with you GT. And yeah I have Ryan slipping into that group so we just disagree on evaluations. The Senior Bowl is coming up so get ready for round two:ffic:
     
  18. Jsbaugh

    Jsbaugh New Member

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    Adam your love of Ryan has completely altered your logical thinking skills and blinded you to the fact Ryan is one QB in a group of many descent QB's that are coming out this year. There is nothing that Ryan has that the other QB's don't and that is something you will see at the combine in a month.

    I'm not a Ryan hater and if he was there in the 2nd round then I say get him, but the fact is you don't build a QB around a team, it's the team around a QB and this team needs so many other players. There is no reason the team cant get a quality QB in a later round. Most of the logical posters on this forum can see that, I'm not sure why you cant.

    The reason I'm not in love with Ryan is his ability to throw the INT which he did at the end of games to lose it for his team. His accuracy is not any better than a few others in the draft. What I see in Ryan is the same thing I saw in Beck, except Beck was more accurate and didnt throw the INT's. What tells you he is any better than Beck? Dont say he is 2 inches taller because that does not matter and a weak argument.
     
  19. Phinfan31

    Phinfan31 New Member

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    Like others have said - we still have the allstar game and combine to go...and ALOT will change. Prior to the draft...alot will change. Who heard of John Beck till about 3 weeks before the draft? All of our "gurus" didnt even have him on their radar...yet thats who Cam/Randy were convinced they were taking with their 2nd rder if he was there.

    I honestly believe that John Beck is here to stay. Parcells likes a game managing QB, one thats smart, a student of the game, and good character. Throw in the fact that Becks accurate and has the deep arm and I don't see Bill having a problem at all with Beck. I think the recent hire of the QB coach is more proof that Becks here to stay. They sought a guy who they could trust in grooming this new prospect of theirs.

    With that said...if we DO draft Ryan...well I'm all for it. Everything I have watched of this kid has impressed the hell out of me. Watching his comeback against VT in the 4th qtr was evidence of what this kid can do WITHOUT TALENT around him. He reminds me of Tom Brady back in NE's early years. A perfect comparison at the collegiate level when coming out of the draft is Jay Cutler.

    I'd like to see the BPA selected...but all of the top10 talents are going to be good additions to this team...the question is which one Bill/Ireland/Sparano (hopefully) feel they want to invest $50 MIL into. Typically this amount of $ only goes to QB's or DE's when coming out of college...but we'll see.

    Jake Long - is out of the question at this point IMO.

    Chris Long - I want to see his all star game and combine, not sold yet.

    Vernon Gholston has not impressed me in the championship game so far...havnt seen much video on this guy but he kinda blew a play earlier in this game

    Dorsey had a nice run-stop so far, hasnt been pressuring QB much though - TBD

    Darren McFadden - well if we take him ill be really excited but we better deal one of the RB's away

    Ryan Clady - I like him alot more than Long, hes the better prospect, better footwork, better balance but we likely wont take him unless we trade down. - I live in Boise - seen firsthand

    Matt Ryan - I'm never upset when the Dolphins address the QB position in the draft...its never happened till last year. We need a franchise guy and if they're sold on him so am I

    James Larinaitus - Hes the next Zach Thomas for us if we take him. Better prospect than Vilma, unfortunately not as good as Willis ...at all. But still good.

    Its just too early to tell who the right guy for Miami is...I say we trade out
     
  20. REV KEV

    REV KEV New Member

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    HA HA
     
  21. REV KEV

    REV KEV New Member

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    That's a great paln if we can find a partner..., we have great flexibility moving around this draft..., with the extra second from Chambers we could get back into the late first rd...
     
  22. REV KEV

    REV KEV New Member

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    Not much seperates these guys and we'll see where the Brass goes first..., trading down is not as simple as it seems but it seems logical...
     
  23. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I trust the group we have in place. If they think Ryan is a franchise Qb take him. If not then its a good move to put up a smoke screen before the combines and workouts incase someone falls in love with him.
     
  24. Motion

    Motion New Member

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    Smokescreen, nothing to see here folks.

    Trade up bait.
     
  25. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Lol. Another great one... we really did not want Ryan at #1. WHOOPS.

    This is relevant, imo, when considering Andrew Luck. This time we are cocksure that Luck WILL be worth the #1 overall pick.

    But remember the famous William Goldman quote (about hollywood, but equally applicable to football drafts): Nobody knows anything.

    Perhaps I'm wrong being so sure Luck is worth trading the house for? The same way we were wrong that Ryan was not going to be a worthwhile #1 pick in the NFL.
     
  26. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    The "we" isn't the same now as it was then.
     
  27. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    Exactly...... WE had the #1 pick then.
    Now we would have to sell our own families to move up.

    It won't happen... For the record I wanted Ryan not Long.
     
  28. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think most people actually consider Luck to be a better prospect than Ryan was. There were some question marks with Ryan. There aren't very many with Luck. I would absolutely trade the house for him. Of course with our luck he'd get hurt or somehow become a bust.
     
  29. Starry31

    Starry31 Phins and Heels.

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    But... but... Ryan would've been killed behind our line, because it would be impossible to trade/sign/draft with something other than the overall first pick a good LT, and everyone knows if you don't have a top 3 LT then nothing else matters. Drafting Long and giving Henne all day in the pocket so he can under throw Hartline was the right decision.
     
    texanphinatic likes this.

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