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Dolphins only a 3.5/4 point favorite/Trap game?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by steveincolorado, Dec 15, 2008.

  1. steveincolorado

    steveincolorado Spook, Storme & Pebbles

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    I was looking at several sites and looking at the spread for the Dolphins/Chiefs game. We're only a 3.5/4 points this weekend. We all are looking forward to week 17, but we still need to take care of the Chiefs this weekend first.

    I want this to be Jest week also, but we gotta win in KC this weekend. I just hope that the players are focused on KC, unlike us who are all looking at the Jest game
     
  2. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It's on their field, which gives them an automatic 3 points, so we're considered over a touchdown better than them. Frankly, given that we have not been scoring much lately, I think it's about right.
    Trap game? Don't know, that depends on how good a coach Sparano is.
     
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  3. PMZQ

    PMZQ Banned

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    Yeah the way the Offense has been playing how can we be more than a 4 point fav ?
     
  4. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    I wouldn't call it a trap game. The public I think has finally caught on to Vegas. Vegas has been killing them in that regard whenever we have to cover more than a FG. Off the top of my head: Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, and San Fran where we were favored by more than 3(and at least one of them by double digits), were favored by the public, and failed to cover.

    Also, people are impulse bettors. The Chiefs nearly beat the (still overrated) Bolts and we failed to cover once again against the 49ers, so the line isn't suspicious at all, imo.
     
  5. dolpns13

    dolpns13 Chest Rockwell is my hero

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    IMO its totally warranted, we havent shown, in any recent game, that we can put a team away.. We were a 6 point favorite against SF I believe. We didnt cover that spread.. We didnt cover Seattle, Oakland, Rams, and these were 2 win teams.. Miami is a scrappy team, scrappy teams dont cover spreads, they win, and win ugly, and annoy teams they will be playing in the future in the process because these teams think they can beat us, and they may be able to, but they eventually dont... because we're scrappy
     
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  6. steveincolorado

    steveincolorado Spook, Storme & Pebbles

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    What I'm saying is that KC can beat us in a minute if we're not careful. Nobody on here is talking about KC, everybody is talking about the Jest game in 2 weeks.

    Everybody is taking this game in KC for granted, I just hope that the players don't. We all know and understand what wk 17 means to us, but we got to take care of wk 16 first.

    Lets just not overlook KC.
     
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  7. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    Which is always easier said than done. It only takes a couple of players to take the week off to hurt also.

    One other aspect to consider is this: The Chiefs announced that Carl Peterson will be resigning at the end of the season. So with a new GM, the entire staff realizes that their jobs are in jeopardy. They may have nothing to play for as far as the playoffs go, but the Chiefs will have every reason to come prepared to play for this one. For them it's an audition for whoever the new GM is going to be.
     
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  8. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Who's "everybody?" Everybody on this board? Everybody on the radio?
    Because I can just about guarantee that EVERYBODY in the Dolphins' coaching staff is talking about the Chiefs...we can only hope that EVERYBODY on the Dolphins' players is talking about the Chiefs too.
    What we talk about here makes no difference at all to the outcome of the game.
     
  9. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pennington said it best. "there is no win 11 without a win 10"
     
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  10. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    a game at arrowhead...is NEVER an easy game....we better bust our *** and prepare for this....
     
  11. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    if we lose to the Chiefs all of our playoff hopes and dreams are virtually dead, I don't see this as a trap game at all.
     
  12. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    if we lose to the chiefs im going swallow a gallon of paint and shove a stick of C-4 in my mouth and blow myself to high hell......




    (nah ill cry though.....)
     
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  13. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    could be because we are horrible in covering spreads... don't get me wrong we win the games but its always close.
     
  14. dolpns13

    dolpns13 Chest Rockwell is my hero

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    I totally agree with this too.. out of al the teams i mentioned, to this point, KC will be the toughest team we will play and has the best QB out of the three I have mentioned. We could easily lose this game in arrowhead
     
  15. StLouisFinFan

    StLouisFinFan New Member

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    No way the players take it for granted. If they lose this game, they're done. Finished. No playoffs. It's do or die. Backs against the wall.
     
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  16. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    we covered against the 9ers :up:
     
  17. dolpns13

    dolpns13 Chest Rockwell is my hero

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    werent we 5.5-6 point fav's?
     
  18. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    Actually most of the bets were on -5, -5.5, and -6 where it opened. Towards the end of the week some got it in on -5 for the push and a few lucky ones on -4.5 But for the most part, the public got killed on that game because they backed us.

    Online books NFL Line Movements for San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins by Offshore Sportsbooks at VegasInsider.com, The Leader in Sportsbook and Gaming Information - NFL Offshore Line Movements, NFL Offshore Sportsbook odds and line changes

    Vegas books NFL Line Movements for San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins by Las Vegas Casinos & Sportsbooks at VegasInsider.com, The Leader in Sportsbook and Gaming Information - NFL Las Vegas Line Movements, NFL Las Vegs Casino and Sportsbook odds and line chan
     
  19. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    i thought i saw us at 4.....but i guess not
     
  20. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    This game does worry me a bit. A lot of the Chiefs games in which they lost, was only by a few points and sometimes they had a lead and would lose by those couple of points or so right near the end of the game. I would occasionally see their highlights and almost feel bad for Herm. Streaks and trends worry me because they're bound to be broken. A play or two go a different way and their record could be much better. I just hope we're not the ones to break their streak. You know, the law of averages thing.

    "..the law of averages says...I will survive."(from one of the many drummers of Spinal Tap) :D

    Also, Thigpen has been playing pretty good and teams that throw the ball well have a tendency to give us trouble. Our secondary and pass rush need to have a big day. IMO. On the other hand, I think if we take care of our business, don't overlook them and just play smart football, we can kick their butts. =D
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    A Mid December game in KC could see us playing in a snow storm, or 30 mph winds or what have you, that will level the playing field, add in we have not been scoring very much, and the spread makes sense.

    Last Game, throwing to the Te's against overly aggressive ILB and poor safeties made sense, this week though, if the weather is bad, Ronnie and Ricky and Cobbs will have to step up for us, this could be an old fashioned low scoring December game for us...lots of smash mouth football.
     
  22. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    You might have, not saying you didn't. Every book is different and it all depends on how the money came in for them. Believe it or not, even Vegas has ceilings on risk factors per game. If they don't feel comfortable with say one side in a lopsided 80/20 action, then they will move the lines to adjust the risk. So if the book you saw got lopsided SF action they could have balanced with -4 even if they felt Miami was the right side. But either way, the majority of Miami backers got killed this week, as they have been almost every week when we're favorites :)

    Edit: Or a move the other way to get more money on a side they want more action on. That's all line moves are actually, not the 50/50 myth, getting a certain % of the public's money on a side they feel is the wrong side, and a calculated risk adjustment.
     
  23. Dolphin1184

    Dolphin1184 Member

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    Arrowhead is an extremely tough place to play. Period.

    KC is playing better lately even though they had a tough loss. I would be careful with this one.
     
  24. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB


    This time we'll probably put up 40 just because we've lulled everyone to sleep with our not so prolific offense. NOW, we finally explode on someone. YA THINK?
     
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  25. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    Hey could be! I'd like to just kick back and drink a few Coronas while sitting on a 20pt lead at halftime for once. These nail biter games are seriously starting to take a toll. We Dolphin fans are out of shape a bit in that regard, you know, in playing so many meaningful and close games in 1 season :)

    But interestingly enough, the public(about 85%) is once again backing us.
     
  26. NJFINSFAN1

    NJFINSFAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The Chiefs have been playing very well, I don't think we over look them. In fact we are not good enough to look past any team, its not like we are out there steamrolling teams.
     
  27. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Over here in the UK we were -6.5, that Carpenter FG that hit the cross bar meant I lost my bet which I was pretty miffed about. Especially since I was brave enough to bet that the Lions would cover their +17.5 against the Colts.
     
  28. n9necount

    n9necount New Member

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    Keep betting the Lions until/if they win :up: They're 6.5 dogs this week against New Orleans
     

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