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Deconstructing the reasons why Miami wins close games

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hugoguzman, Dec 15, 2008.

  1. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Miami Dolphins "Deconstructing the reasons why Miami wins close games" - Realfootball365.com

    On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins won their ninth game of the season. That’s news enough in and of itself, considering last year’s 1-15 debacle. However, what’s perhaps more impressive is Miami’s ability to consistently win close-fought games. The Dolphins are 4-1 in games that have been decided by five points or fewer, with their lone loss coming courtesy of a last-second collapse against the Houston Texans. Moreover, Miami has iced victories on key fourth-quarter drives against the Chargers, Bills, Broncos, Seahawks, Raiders, Rams and 49ers.

    Give it a quick read and let me know what you think. Thanks!
     
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  2. Ludacris

    Ludacris Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pretty much agree with your column there hugo.

    I'm not sure if everyone has seen this too but i have noticed in those close games that when we get off with over a touchdown lead we tend to go conservative with the play calling. Anyone else notice this?
     
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  3. dolphans1

    dolphans1 New Member

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    How far did that 1990's Giants team go anyone know...?

    d-1
     
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  4. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    Good stuff Hugo.

    I don't know if we can ever truly know or understand why this team plays close games, instead of dominating other teams. It really depends on your perspective. If you're an optimist, then you would say this team has a tendency to manufacture their own conflict, so that they can rise to the challenge and win. We've seen that in a number of games this year. If you're a glass half-empty guy, you'd call that playing to the level of your competition, which is another way of looking at how we've survived this year.

    I'm fairly certain a lot of this is due to the fact that we've got such a young team, as well as a lot of new starters, and we still haven't completely gelled as a team. What's been incredible is that we've won nearly every close game we've played - save the Jets game (which we were in until the last play) and the Houston game (which we probably should have won).

    I don't expect us to suddenly start blowing out teams - KC next week is going to be a challenge - but I do think it's a good sign that we can play and beat anyone we play.
     
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  5. StLouisFinFan

    StLouisFinFan New Member

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    Won the Superbowl.
     
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  6. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    who?:wink2:
     
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  7. DolfanTom

    DolfanTom Livin' and Dyin' w/ Ryan!

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    What I like most about this is, they are already learning how to win, before the talent overhaul is complete. They need to keep this up as the talent - presumably - continues to improve over the next couple seasons.
     
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  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Why draw the line at 5 points? 5 points isn't am important margin.

    7 points is a far better place to draw the line since that represents a TD + conversion. My personal theory is that games decided by 7 or less points are 50-50 in games in that one player doing something differently on one play could have reversed the outcome of the game.

    Taking 7 or less points as the cutoff the close games are
    Jets (L) 14 - 20
    San Diego (w) 17-10
    Houston (L) 28-19
    Seattle (W) 21-19
    Oakland (W) 17-15
    St Louis (W) 16-12
    San Francisco (W) 14-19

    That puts our record in close games at 5-2. Not quite as impressive as 4-1, but still better than the expected 4-3 or 3-4.

    Statistical analysis shows that winning close games is not a year to year constant. In other words the ability to win close games is essentially random from a statistical persperspective and teams that tough out a lot of close wins in one year can end up losing a bunch of close games the next even if the roster and coaching remains constant.

    The better indicator of whether or not a team is genuinely good is blowout wins and losses (victories by 14+ points). Good teams blow out bad teams and don't geat blown out by other good teams. On that count our record is:
    Arizona (L) 10-31
    New England (W) 38-13
    Baltimore (L) 13-27
    New England (L) 28-48

    A less than impressive 1-3.

    A good record in close games and a poor record in blowouts is a classic statistical sign of a team that is overachieving and a team that is due for a reality check the next year.
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Monday Evening Read this week Hugo G.


    Not turning the ball over and timely plays, Ronnie's runs in the 4th qtr, when he had been mostly quite all game, are an example of that happening.

    And Fields probably had his best game as a Dolphin yesterday, his punting has improved this year.
     
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  10. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    I think maybe it was a rhetorical question.
     
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  11. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    I actually thanked your post because it provided a fresh perspective, but I disagree and/or have issues with a few of your assertions.

    As far as using 7-point games as the measuring stick, I don't like it because it includes games in which a team typically cannot be beaten by a single score (like the San Diego game). I could have used the number 6, which would put Miami at 4-2. In any case, the issue I have with this entire rebuttal of yours is that I made it a point to mention that this statistic is secondary to fact that Miami has shown a penchant for icing games in the fourth quarter.

    As for your assertion about the statistical significance of winning close games, you left out a couple of key insights. Namely, the fact that one of the biggest determining factors in what teams wins/loses close games is turnover margin. It's no coincidence that Miami's ability to win these games is tied to their amazing ability to create more turnovers than they commit.

    That is no statistical anomaly.

    Lastly, some of the great teams get a lot of blowouts, but Miami's style of play does not lend itself to those types of outcomes. Miami plays a conservative style to hide their lack of talent in certain spots. Eventually, when their talent is equal to their tactical awareness, they'll get the blowouts that you covet.
     
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  12. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Because unlike last year we are playing smart football and not shooting ourselves in the foot every chance we get. We dont commit horrible penalties at the worst times, give the ball away via TOs.
    We do need to work a bit offensively sustaining more drives to control the clock. Against some good offensive teams (especially if we get to the playoffs) we wont be able to be almost doubled in ToP and still get Ws.
     
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  13. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I freely admit that I was looking at it from a raw stats perspective and not looking for any underlying reasons which may explain why Miami is doing better in close games than average.

    For me I'd like to see Miami build up a consistent record over a few years of being better than average in close games and then look to see if there is a reason for it. Case in point the Saban years. Year 1 we won a lot of close games, year 2 we lost a lot of close games. In the first Saban year people were getting all poetical in describing the reasons for Miami being better than average in close games, but when the two years were looked at as a whole Nick Saban hadn't discovered the magical pixie dust of being better than average in close games, he just got lucky in one year and then got arrested by the long arm of the law of averages the next.

    There is a lot of truth in what you say about low turnovers and low penalty counts that help in winning football games in general and close games in particular. I'd just like to see it be a 2 or 3 year trend before anointing Sparano as a close game specialist.
     
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  14. Darkoak

    Darkoak Gone for good.

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    Minimal turnovers.
     
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  15. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Because we kick some serious *** :knucks:
     
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  16. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff! I agree, especially the part about Penny. The guy is such a huge part of why we've had the success we've had this year. His smart play and strong leadership qualities have been amazing. He's similar to the QB of the greatest team in NFL history, Bob Griese, who wasn't known for having that big, rocket arm, but he was smart with the football and didn't turn it over a lot. I hate to remember all the horrible QBs we've had here in recent history. Guys who were turnover machines, throwing that horrible out pattern that would get picked and returned for a TD to kill the game and our hopes for the season. =(.

    I also like the part about the D. Their tackling has greatly improved as of late. The secondary is now doing so much better than they did earlier on in the season. Guys like Y. Bell have really stepped it up. His tackles recently have really helped us. You don't see as much arm tackling as we did earlier in the season. The coverage overall has been a lot better also. That says a lot about the talent and character of a lot of our guys and obviously it says a lot about the coaching.
     
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  17. hugoguzman

    hugoguzman New Member

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    Agreed as far as looking for a multi-year trend, although I would argue that Saban's biggest mistake was getting rid of a relatively mistake-free quarterback (Gus Frerotte) in favor of two quarterbacks known for turning it over (Daunte Culpepper & Joey Harrington).

    This team is led by one of the most mistake-free quarterbacks in NFL history (Pennington) as well as a brain trust (led by Parcells) that is known for improving from year one to year two, etc...

    That should count for something.
     
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