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Vegas Not Sold: Dolphins a 40-1 Longshot for '09

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by njfinfan, Jan 26, 2009.

  1. njfinfan

    njfinfan The First Lady

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    http://blogs.herald.com/random_evidence/2009/01/vegas-not-sold.html

    It's almost as if the Dolphins' miracle turnaround of 2008 -- an 11-5 record, AFC East title and playoff berth directly after that 1-15 debacle -- never happened. Oddsmakers are acting like it was a mirage. Like the Dolphins are back to square one as just another team that probably won't make the playoffs.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Psh, vegas hasn't done anything for me to warrant those odds.

    Betcha they all said the Patriots were going to win the superbowl last year too :D
     
    njfinfan likes this.
  3. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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    I kinda of like being the underdog. We have a real tough schedule this year, that is why the number is 40-1, but this is why we play the game, because anything can happen. Let's Go Dolphins!:hi5:
     
  4. Georgia Fin

    Georgia Fin Fin For Life

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    Bet they were even worse going into last season after only winning 1 game. With a grain of salt my friends.:up:
     
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  5. PMZQ

    PMZQ Banned

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    "bang the no respect drum" and bang it loudly. However, that Ravens game, and the tougher scheduke, should show us we have a long, long way to go to be a Super Bowl contender.

    I think we could go 8-8 next year and actually be an improved team from the 2008 version.
     
    Bpk, Ultra, fins1 and 2 others like this.
  6. Dannyg28

    Dannyg28 Say hi to the rings

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    vegas doesn't make odds based on what they think is going to happen, they do it based on how they think the public is going to bet. This shows the public as a whole doesn't have much confidence in the dolphins.
     
  7. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I dont remember wich sportsbook it is but it had the Cardinals 40-1 to win the super bowl this year around December 13th even after they clinched their division! A close friend of mine threw 500 bucks on it just because of the value.

    So he will be the biggest Cardinals fan in the history of Ohioans come sunday.
     
  8. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    I love it. Being the underdog and disrespected makes the winning much, much sweeter.
     
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  9. jupiterfin

    jupiterfin Mild Irritant

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    I think Vegas is doing too many drugs... They have the Jets at 30-1 odds?! Cowboys at 10-1?! These teams didn't even make the playoffs, and the Jets, please, they don't even have a solidified QB or coaching staff in position.

    Like FFIC said, I like being the underdog, but not to the Jets :tantrum:
     
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  10. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Vegas is looking at our schedule. I'm hoping we can fly under the radar again this year and avoid all the hype that teams like the Bills and Browns could not live up to.
     
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  11. PMZQ

    PMZQ Banned

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    I have to agree with you this one is mighty perplexing. But I guess their reasoning is that the Jets way underperformed, and that they should be much better next year with whatever the new coaching staff is.

    Of course we look at that differently, but who knows. We have no idea about Favre, free agency and the draft. There is a lot to go in this thing before we know what next season could mean for us.
     
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  12. I am Bane

    I am Bane BAKLAVA!!!

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    yup yup yup, its just gonna be another fun season to enjoy!!!



     
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  13. 124

    124 Banned

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    So now Chad Pennington, a man whose injured every other season in his career, is a solid starting Quarterback? Lets see if he can stay healthy for the first time in his career for back to back seasons. Our coaching staff is just as much a question mark as yours was last season and Quarterback position, hey, same exact thing.

    I don't blame Vegas at all, not just because I'm a Jets fan but because they know that if Rex Ryan brings the Baltimore type D to New York, it is going to succeed giving whoever the QB is an easy game plan. Hand the ball off the AFC's leading rusher and the AFC's most dynamic playmaker at RB and manage the ball game, whether that be Favre, Clemens, Garcia or a Draft Pick.

    [admin]Don't turn this into a smack talking thread.[/admin]

    One good year doesn't over-ride things in many minds.
     
    codizzle likes this.
  14. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    The Jets hired Rex Ryan as their coach, not Cam Cameron. The Ravens success on offense was due to Cameron. You're falling into the trap of believe that just because a lot of first year coaches had success last year, Rex Ryan will have the same this year. I don't buy it. You Jets fans will be pining away for Mangini in no time.
     
  15. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

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    We have to listen to this again? Seriously, you did alot of talking last offseason too. How did that work out for you?

    Newsflash: Unless Rex brings a few guys named Suggs, Reed, Lewis, Ngata and Scott with him to NY, that Jets defense won't look anything like Baltimore.
     
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  16. jupiterfin

    jupiterfin Mild Irritant

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    I love how people can "predict" upcoming injuries. Fact is, should Pennington suffer some sort of injury next year, the team has alot of confidence in Chad Henne, so the idea that Miami is screwed without Pennington is false. Also, while NY has been scrambling to assemble a staff of coaches, Miami's top 3 have been at the senior bowl scouting players that fit our tem perfectly. We also have lots of room with our cap in order to sign free agents. If the Favre retires, NY might have 3 mil to spend in free agency. Not good.

    If, If Ryan is able to implement a Baltimore type defense without Lewis, Suggs, Reed, Scott etc... How's Gholston going to work out in next years team. Designated special teamer? Coles, TJ Faneca etc... all getting older.
     
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  17. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    I haven't even ventured into peoples responses to this but I know there will be outrage and people getting all bent out of shape.

    No reason to though.
    Why should Vegas put us as a favorite?
    We had a weak schedule and when it came time to prove themselves in the playoffs the team simply displayed all the problems it still has.

    No disrespect at all here IMO. They're looking at the fact that at this point were a team in need of improving to play with the real contenders coupled with what at this point should be considered a brutal schedule.
     
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  18. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    Yep.... they have to lay odds down that will entice some betting on them.
    Do any of you really think anyone that's not a Dolfan attributes our season to anything more than a result of a weak schedule?

    In the end who cares guys?
    THe Phins do have a lot of work to do.
    What happens this offseason will be pretty key to the chances we have next year.
    No telling what we'll have to work with.
    I'm pretty confident with this staff though that well go into next year a better team.
    That's all that matters.
     
  19. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    geez the jets dont have the personal to get a D set up in their first season to become the ravens D, i read rhodes wants to be ed reed and i read ryan thinks gholston is terrell suggs, good luck with that.....no cap space to go shopping isnt gonna help either
     
  20. shaunm000

    shaunm000 Well-Known Member

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    I'd say this is awesome!

    40-1 is great especially when you cash in that winning ticket! Im confident in this Miami Dolphin team. Plus we would be hosting the game next year too!

    The Tampa Bay Rays were like 100-1 to make the world series last year. Im sure a couple of die hard fans took those odds and cashed in! Pretty sweet return if you ask me!
     
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  21. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    The Cardinals were the longest shot [when the playoffs started] in Vegas to win the Super Bowl this year. They don't know anything. Especially at this point.
     
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  22. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Well let's be honest. The Cardinals WERE the long shot. They just started playing MUCH better football at the right time.
     
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  23. Roman529

    Roman529 Senior Member

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    We have a much tougher schedule next year, but in the AFC East I think the Bills are struggling and the Jets are going to take a step back especially if Favre retires....the Jets also have a new coach and salary cap problems. I think the division title will come down to us and the Pats. The Pats also have a tough schedule. I think we have as good a shot in 2009 as the Cardinals have this year to win the SB. You just have to get on a roll come playoff time.
     
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  24. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I'm not totally convinced myself that we can repeat the 11-5 and go further in the playoffs next season. This was not a one year job to begin with, but several moves that were made last year, particularly having Penny drop in our laps along with the weaker schedule accelerated, I think, even the Trio's timetable for this team. The big change for us next season, of course, is schedule strength...we'll play a much harder schedule...the variable will be whether any of the current bottom-dwellers will have Atlanta, Miami or Baltimore turnarounds and whether the current top tier teams will have St. Louis, Dallas, KC or Broncos turn downs next season...
     
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  25. The Aqua Crush

    The Aqua Crush New Member

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    I don't think 40-1 is all that bad. Making the next step to go deep into the playoffs is another huge step. Winning the superbowl is another huge step. The level of competition in the nfl is so tight year to year no team should be great than say 30-1 before the previous season is even over. SO mnay things can change for each team.

    But what i dont' agree with is having the Cboys at 10-1. Only an idiot would make that bet. It should be 100-1 in my opinion, or at least it would hvae to be for me to bet on the Boy's for next years superbowl winners.
     
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  26. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    The Patriots practically have the same muther****ing schedule. Why do this have to be repeated every single day?
     
  27. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    I usually never bet, but I'll take that one. Next time I'm in Vegas for a coaching clinic I'll be putting some money down on our Fins if the odds are the same!
     
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  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just remember that on an even playing field every team is 32-1 to win the Superbowl.

    Then you have a few teams who have proven their ability to repeatedly get into the playoffs, and therefore have a better than average chance of winning it all - e.g. Steelers, Patriots, Eagles. In order to accommodate these teams odds shortening the odds of other teams have to lengthen.

    Statistically 50% of teams that make the playoffs one year don't make it the next.

    Therefore until the Dolphins prove that they can repeatedly make the playoffs 40-1 is about where they should be.

    All this talk about how we'll be better next year is being repeated on 30 team's fansites at the moment.
     
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  29. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    'Cept for the Lions. :lol: Of course, people would have made the same joke about us at this time last year...
     
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  30. Swampfox

    Swampfox Season Ticket Holder

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    If the Lions take anything other than O line or defense then they should be shot.
     
  31. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Vegas odds makers are still fuming about the money lost on the over/under(for wins)from last year.
    From what I've heard a bunch of Finfans raked in the doe when they set it at 5.5. :lol:
    They are just bitter...hehe
     
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  32. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    I went through this whole thread trying to figure out who this was in response to. Don't see any post about N.E. having an easier or harder schedule so besides the possibiltiy of you having a "bad trip" where did this come from? :lol:
     
  33. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    You nailed it. Theres a reason the Cowboys are at 10-1.
     
  34. BrazForPhins

    BrazForPhins From south

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    I LOVE this news.

    'Hype' is never a good thing for any team.

    remember saban's 2nd season? All hype, poor football.
     
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  35. AbideN703

    AbideN703 Yes, I'd hit it

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    The odds of the Dolphins winning 11 games was 0 coming into this year so I don't understand why anyone would even give a damn about "odds" in the first place.

    Look at the teams they said have a shot at the SB next year. Do you think they had Arizona as one of those teams for this season? Of course not, it's all the teams that made the playoffs the year before that have a "shot" at winning.

    It's worthless
     
  36. AbideN703

    AbideN703 Yes, I'd hit it

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    So then how are the Jets favored better then Miami?
     
  37. AbideN703

    AbideN703 Yes, I'd hit it

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    Yeah, the Jets have all these great parts on their team yet they didn't do **** last year. Who would've figured that? All it takes is a rookie HC apparently
     
  38. AbideN703

    AbideN703 Yes, I'd hit it

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    No, all that means is that there is no such thing as a "long shot". All teams are given a chance and the one that comes out on top is the champ. That could be Arizona and with that, it takes all these BS talk about odds, power polls, the media spin and everything else and squashes it with a dose of reality.
     
  39. codizzle

    codizzle New Member

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    u mean besides the fact that they have one of the most talented teams in the league???? if they had a real coach they would still be playing... no question.

    but to the op. 40-1 is not bad for u guys especially considering your division. every single team is a question mark for different obvious reasons
     
  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Well if they want the money to come in and they suspect the real odds are hypothetically 20-1 they should offer 15-1 - they'll attract more volume than other books whilst maintaining a healthy buffer. Where bookies get hurt real bad is when they offer 100-1 odds on 10-1 shots.

    My Dad used to work for a very successful track bookie, what he did was lengthen the odds on the favorites and shorten the odds on the scrubs.
     

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