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*Official 2009 Atlanta Braves Thread*

Discussion in 'Other Sports Forum' started by Rocky Raccoon, Feb 15, 2009.

  1. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Excellent start to the big 10 game home stand. Vazquez was terrific as usual and though we only scored 2 runs, it was enough tonight. Now the Yankees come into town and Hanson gets the start in the first game tomorrow night. Should be fun to watch.
     
  2. T. Nathan22

    T. Nathan22 Dolphins fan since 72

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    Good to have a Braves thread......

    where there is a Dolphin thread close by. Having grown up in the South the Braves were it for a long, long time. My Grandfather worked for Coke (the beverage). The company had seats along the first base line and he would take me to a game when we visited. He took me on April 8th, 1974. Been a fan ever since.

    Since Turner put the Braves on that weird channel I rarely get to see em anymore. What I have seen seems to be the same ole same old. SP gives 5 or 6 innings with a lead, bullpen comes in and serves up batting practice.:pity:
     
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  3. charlestonphan

    charlestonphan Junior Member

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    bullpen has been very good of late. Moylan is rounding into form. and Gonzo and Soriano have only given up 2 runs combined in their last 23 innings pitched.

    great win against Yankees tonite. Hanson pitched his way out fo jams a few times tonite, and the offense seems to be starting to be getting back a little bite.

    i freaking love watching Nate McClouth play baseball. little things like hustling from third on the tag up last night because the runner on first also tagged and there were two outs. situational awareness. here that Yunel?

    also like his hustle. and the guy has a great swing too.

    mancrush. :)
     
  4. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    yunel still benched??
     
  5. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Yunel isn't benched anymore.
     
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  6. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Bad call possibly cost Atlanta this game tonight. They were trying to get a bases loaded double play, went home and then McCann went to first where his throw was deflected by the runner running in fair territory. The call was completely blown by the ump. I'm getting sick of this ****. They get screwed everytime on calls that matter the most.
     
  7. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Yeah it was a bad call but I do think McCann/Kotchman should have seen that Cano was running in fair grounds and should have thrown the ball to the foul side of 1st base. It was a bang/bang play but the umps hardily ever call a runner out in that spot.
     
  8. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Eh, I actually thought it was the right call to be honest. Cano was still on the line when it hit him. Bad decision by McCann.

    Terrible loss. We really need tomorrow night's game to win the series.
     
  9. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    The replays they showed during the game here locally on Peachtree TV showed he was clearly on the wrong side of the line. They also got a good shot of the home plate ump not watching the runner at all. It wasn't the right call b/c the runner should not be running that far into fair territory. He was almost on the grass which the replay clearly showed. I understand that McCann maybe should have adjusted the throw but if the rules are actually observed he wouldn't have to.

    What are you going to do... That cost them two runs but they can't blame anyone but themselves for the other six.

    Don't get me started on Kawakami getting hit. The worst stinking luck ever. He was on it last night, in all likelihood the Yankees don't win if he stays in and goes seven innings. Hit by a line drive from an AL pitcher. Are you kidding me? I'm getting really sick of seeing other teams' pitchers injure Braves. It's not intentional but it's still pissing me off.
     
  10. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Tough game last night. Nothing went our way.

    BTW, Is anyone still questioning Nate McLouth's glove in CF? I remember when he was traded to Atlanta people were down playing his defense. Hopefully those people are taking notice.
     
  11. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Nope he's still a lousy defensive OFer. A few nice plays here and there doesn't change things. Just look at his defensive stats or a scouting report on him. Manny Ramirez has been known to make great plays at times too doesn't make him any better, that's failed logic.
     
  12. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    No, your logic is failed. The guy had the best fielding percentage in the NL last year. He makes EVERY play and has solid range. Why are you still knocking him?
     
  13. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    You're using fielding percentage to back up your arguement yet my logic is failed? Seriously? This is 2009 there's more to measuring someone's defensive value than that especially when fielding percentage is probably the least important defensive stat to measure if someone is a good fielder or not.

    He has solid range? Really? That's why he has -13.8 URZ this season. And pretty much every single defensive stat on the guy is a negative number?

    Here take a look, then let me know if I'm wrong to knock the guy:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclouna01-field.shtml
     
  14. T. Nathan22

    T. Nathan22 Dolphins fan since 72

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    I couldn't believe the luck....


    he was headed for a possible no-no. Seems like my teams always have that kinda crap happen to them.
     
  15. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    My head exploded when I opened that link. What are we supposed to be looking at there that lets us know whether or not someone is a good fielder? I'm interested now.
     
  16. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    By the way, very disappointing series. I'll give the Yankees their credit, but we played some TERRIBLE defense these past few games. We let yet another series get away from us.

    And WTF has happened to Lowe? He has sucked hard lately. If it weren't for Lincecum, he would have single handily ruined my fantasy team this week.
     
  17. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    When you click on the link put your mouse on top of the stat names on the top and there will be a pop up that explains what each stat means and how it's measured. There is also a glossary of terms link that you can click on and read up on them.

    All of the stats are suppose to be positive and obviously the higher the number the better the fielder, so since McLouth has almost all negative numbers it means he's not a very good fielder.

    An easy way to compare, try checking stats of players you know are good fielders like Ichiro or Andruw Jones in his prime with the Braves. Look at Ken Griffey Jr.'s stats and you'll see how good on D he used to be when he was younger and with Seattle and how he declined through the years with the Reds.
     
  18. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Honest question here; Have you ever played Baseball? Seriously, becuase if you have you know that Baseball is not a pie chart or a spread sheet and statistical data gathered by some guy who doesn't know the difference between a 2-Seam Fastball and a 4-Seam Fastball.

    You cant tell me Nate McLouth is not a good outfielder. Infact, I bet if you were to ask the players and coaches in Major League Baseball what they think of him defensively, they would all say above average.

    So yes, you are wrong. Watch the guy for a season and THEN tell me you think he's a lousy defender.
     
  19. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    BTW, most of those stats are based on how many runs your team gives up when you are on the field. Kinda like a +/- in Hockey. Girffey, Jones and Ichiro all played on decent teams. McLouth played for the Pirates for 5 years, you do the math.

    EDIT: Check out Torii Hunters advanced fielding stats. I guess he's not a good OF'er either. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01.shtml
     
  20. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    There are just so many things wrong with this post I don’t know where to begin, but I will try my best to cover it all.

    First, yes I played baseball but that means nothing to this argument and really irrelevant. Theo Epstein never played baseball at a high level (past high school) so would you automatically discredit anything he has to say or his baseball knowledge? Ditto for Bill James. You knock the stats saying guys that create spread sheets and pie charts on this stuff don’t know baseball (which is completely false and just hiding the fact you have nothing to back up your statements) yet they are smarter and more knowledgeable about the game than both you and I combined. These stat guys know their stuff.

    Next, yes I can tell you Nate McLouth is not a good outfielder because he’s not. Defensive stats DO NOT back it up that he is and fielding percentage is not something to back your stance. I’m shocked you didn’t bring up how he won a meaningless gold glove last year because that would have helped your argument more than the other stuff you wrote. You give no proof or research to back up that he is a good fielder outside of a few nice plays the guy has made in 20 games with the Braves. About the stats I gave they have nothing to do with how good or bad a team is, if it did why does Manny Ramirez have a negative rating when he’s been on good teams his whole career and how about Derek Jeter who’s been on winning teams his whole career and has negative defensive stats. But you want to dismiss them, fine but explain why is McLouth has a negative zone rating. Explain that. How can someone be a good OFer, especially a CFer, that has a negative zone rating? Show me something to back your argument up because right now you have nothing.

    Finally Nate McLouth has been on the Braves for less than a month and played in what 20 games? Why don’t you watch him for a full season first, it hardily makes you an expert on the subject and while I admit you’ve seen more games of his than I do I have proof he’s not good while you don’t have any proof he’s is. And before you give me the whole ‘well I’ve seen him play’ stuff no one here has seen guys like Ted Williams, Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle play yet we know they’re good because why? We look at their stats.

    In closing I’ll leave you with the words of Keith Law, a Scout for ESPN.com, when asked about McLouth and his defensive abilities from one of his chats (I hope an actual scout and former member of a MLB front office is knowledgeable enough for you):

    http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/25753

    Mike (Pittsburgh)
    Why so much hate for Nate McLouth? I know he does not cover the most ground, but awful defensively? He won the Gold glove, at 5 assists, 1 DP, an only 1 error in 1300 innings in CF! And another thing, it was his first year as an every day starter! Isn't it normal to see a dip late in the season for guys who are not use to playing that many games? I know he has never been seen as having a ton of potential by scouts, but its nice to see a guy work hard and overachieve his potential rather than all the duds who are tabbed as the next great thing.
    Keith Law
    He's awful defensively. Just accept it and move on with your life.



    EDIT: I just got a PM from someone sending me this from Jason Grey’s chat on ESPN yesterday who’s also a Scout:

    http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27078

    Pete (FL)
    Not a real fantasy question but I'm having an argument with my friend over Nate McClouth. I said he's not a very good defensive OF but my friend says he is because he won a GG and he's made some great catches in the OF.
    Jason Grey
    Shouldn't you be in Keith Law's chat? :-)
    Jason Grey
    Fo what it's worth, McLouth's UZR is -13.8 this season. What's that movie quote? "Some men you just can't reach."


    Amen.

    EDIT: About Hunter, I will look into that when I have more time. It is an interesting find and I admit I didn't even think of looking up his stats when I looked into other players, so I will have to look at a few other websites that measure defensive stats and see.
     
  21. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    The thing that bugs me is that people knocking him are not giving specific reasons. If you think his range is poor or he has a bad arm, thats one thing. But to hide behind numbers and say "Look, his UZR is -13.8!!!" just seems like a cop-out.

    I pointed to his fielding percentage because it means when given the chance to make a play, he does. He's sure handed, has good fundamentals, and doesn't make any bad throws. Sometimes in baseball, it's the throw you dont make or the dive you dont attempt that saves your team a run. The numbers cant tell you that.

    Also, Epstein is a great GM, no denying that. He's had more success than Billy Beane because of a much larger payroll.

    I didnt mention the Gold Glove because it's not relevant to his skills, although Baseball writers thought his season was good enough to merit the award. Which says something, considering he plays for such a small market team. But I could care less about it, David Wright won the award with 21 errors...
     
  22. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    No those guys and others have written about McLouth (and other’s) poor defensive skills. I just didn’t bother searching for it but you certainly can so you can read up on it, I think you'd be surprised. And saying his UZR is -13.8 isn’t as big of a cop out as not providing any stats to back it up. It actually tells you he has poor range in the OF. Much like if you saw a player with a .500 OBP you’d know he gets on base half of the times he comes to the plate.

    The thing with fielding percentage is it doesn’t take show the player’s real value, it only shows that the player fielded the ball clearly, even if no outs were made on the play. It doesn’t show range, how much ground a player can cover, whether he turns a double play (if he’s an infielder because remember if there’s a DP opportunity and the SS throws the ball to the 2B and he touches the base for the force out but his throw is wild and the hitter is safe at 1B but doesn’t advance, the 2nd baseman isn’t given an error because you can’t assume a double play but it will show up in the fielding stats). Someone like David Ortiz, Jason Giambi or Carlos Delgado will field almost everything hit right at them but if the ball is two feet to the right or left, they won’t get it to and it will be a base hit, but won’t show up in their fielding percentage but they’re hurting the team because they are bad defenders. Ditto for throws from other infielders that they couldn’t scoop up at 1st, it won’t show up. So there are many flaws in that stat. And that’s why the old dinosaur sport writers don’t understand why Jeter is a bad defensive SS when his fielding percentage is so high, he might not have as many errors as say for example Orlando Cabrera but that could be because Cabrera has more range than Jeter, which means he gets to more balls, which increases his chances of making an error on the play.

    The gold glove is just a joke and usually given to big name players who have won it in the past or guys who had big years hitting wise. Those baseball writers are the same ones that gave Palmiero the GG award over Tino Martinez in the late 90s when he played less than 40 games at 1st base and how did those writers justify giving him the award? He had a high fielding percentage.

    And I have no idea where the Epstein/Beane payroll statement came from because it doesn’t have anything to do with the conversation on McLouth’s defense. I was simply pointing out to you that just because someone (in this case Epstein) doesn’t play the game doesn’t mean he doesn’t know the game. I never even brought up Beane’s name and not sure why you did either. My only guess is that Beane played the game and is a smart baseball guy?
     
  23. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Billy Beane was the 'Moneyball' guy who based most of his decisions on Sabremetrics and other advanced stats. Because his payroll was so low, he looked for an edge.

    Epstein follows the same mold, which is why he hired Beane's former assistant.
     
  24. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I know who Billy Beane is and I've read 'Money Ball'. Have you read 'Money Ball'? Because if you did I'm surprised we're even having these stat conversations and you most definitely wouldn't have knocked the stat data spreadsheets, pie charts and guys who never played the game but put them together.

    Also which former assistant did Theo Epstein hire? I'm a little confused and don't remember.
     
  25. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Im sorry, he wasn't an assistant, but an advisor. Bill James?

    I never let numbers tell me whether I think a guy is good or not. I watch alot of baseball games, and have seen plenty of McLouth. I would never compare him to Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey Jr., as those were two of the greatest CF'ers of all-time.

    But to say McLouth is lousy? Why? Break down those numbers and tell me why it is he's lousy. Im telling you I think he's solid because he makes all the plays, you haven't told me what the numbers mean.

    Do the numbers tell you he takes bad routes to balls? Do they say he missed the cutoff man? Has a weak arm? What?
     
  26. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    BTW, I hate to sound like Joe Morgan and say that Moneyball and Sabermetrics are bull****, because I dont think they are. I think their is merit to some of it, but we should always remember that there are things stats and numbers cant tell you.

    We'll just have to agree to disagree about McLouth. But Id be interested to hear what you think about Hunter.
     
  27. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    The thing is that in baseball numbers actually tell you a lot unlike ther sports. He's right in that fielding percentage has absolutely NOTHING to do with how good a fielder is in most cases, but even more so in outfielders.

    Lots of guys catch all the balls they get to....its more about what you CAN get to as an outfielder.
     
  28. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    I'm not going to go through each stat with you, that's something a google search can do and it would probably be better/easy to read their explainations on it with examples.

    But I will provide you with two links.

    One from John Dewan who writes 'The Fielding Bible' and is an expert on the subject of measuring defense.

    http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=189

    Yes it talks about McLouth winning the gold glove but he talks about McLouth's strengths and weaknesses as an OFer and while Dewan finds that McLouth isn't as bad as everyone thinks he is in, he still isn't a very good fielder and his weakness outweigh his strengths.

    The next link is from Rob Neyer about McLouth's defense and he has stats from Baseball Prospectus and Bill James: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob&month=11&year=2008

    You have to scroll down to the page to find it and it might be Insider Only so I copied and pasted his piece on McLouth:

    _________________________________________________________________________________
    According to Baseball Prospectus, McLouth was 17 runs -- runs, not plays -- worse than an average center fielder. According to Bill James' win shares, McLouth's outfield defense was 46th-most-valuable in the majors. This is exactly the sort of award that only damages the reputation of the honor.

    So how on Earth could McLouth win a Gold Glove? The voters aren't talking, and I'm a lousy mind reader, but here's a guess: After the voters settled on Beltran and Victorino, they couldn't figure out who belonged in that third slot. Jeff Francoeur won last year, but he didn't hit this year, so -- as the "thinking" goes -- he must have been a lousy fielder, too (which he was, actually). Aaron Rowand won last year, but his hitting fell off a ton, too. (Plus, he didn't deserve the Gold Glove last year anyway. He won only because he slammed into a wall without dropping a fly ball.)

    Who, then? Well, there's this kid in Pittsburgh, looks good in a uniform, is shocking the world with his bat … and did you happen to notice that he made only one error all season long? My guess is that at the end of the season, all the Gold Glove voters -- the managers and coaches -- are supplied with statistics. Just the old standards, of course. Even things like assists and putouts are meaningless to most of the voters. What they can understand, though, are errors and fielding percentage. And if you judge fielders by errors and fielding percentage, you have to allow that Nate McLouth was an excellent center fielder.

    Of course, only a fool would rely solely on errors and fielding percentage.

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    I don't know what else you want me to do or say. I keep backing up my stance based on professional scouts accounts and numbers and all you have to back it up with is your own opinion from what you've seen from a month or so of McLouth. So maybe it's something you're missing when you watch.

    Anyway I'm done with the subject because I'm not going to change my stance and it's obvious you won't back down that it's possible McLouth isn't as good as you think and I really have nothing more to say about it. It was an interesting/fun debate though.
     
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  29. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I want you to say he's not lousy LOL. That was the original statement I disagreed with. After reading the article from John Dewan, I understand why some might think he's overrated, and I definitely understand why many think he wasn't deserving of a Gold Glove. As stated earlier, I wont even disagree with those people.

    But I did find this interesting:

    So, for the most part he makes plays. Not spectacular by any means, and as I said earlier he's not an Andruw Jones on his best day, but I think (and yes, Ive seen him more than for a month) he's a solid OF'er.
     
  30. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Agreed. The problem is guys like Joe Morgan and older sports writers have been doing things for so long that they refuse to look at the new aged stats and when people present them with data and evidence that goes against them their excuse is 'well I watch the guy and don't need stats to tell me things' because they either don't understand the new stats or they're too stubborn to admit they may be wrong about something.

    Just 10 years ago do you think anyone would ever bring up OBP? No way. Of course OBP measures a hitter's value more so than batting average. Geez in the 80s the Red Sox had Jerry Remy leading off with a .293 OBP. Imagine if someone was leading off with that today?
     
  31. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    No Escobar or McCann in the lineup tonight plus they're facing Beckett again. Not too optimistic about this one. :(
     
  32. King Felix

    King Felix Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :jt0323:
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The thing of that is, OBP means very very little in the large scheme of things, Beane and Alderson in SD have relied on new metrics, but their teams still suck and rarely advance if they make the playoffs at all.
     
  34. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    No that's totally and completely wrong. OBP is probably one of the most important hitting stats in the game, if not the most important stat. The whole point of baseball is to score more runs than the other team. Well you need guys on base to score runs. OBP is so much more important than batting average.

    The reasons why both Oakland and San Diego not advancing has nothing to do with Beane and Alderson relying on OBP. It has to do a lot with luck in the playoffs and talent of their 25 guys on the roster.
     
  35. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Really? A point of OBP is worth more than a point of ANYTHING else.

    A team with a 1000 OBP will score an infinite amount of runs. A team with a 1000 slugging % wouldnt.

    You get on base and you will find ways to score. It isnt the ONLY thing but it is an important thing.
     
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  36. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not in my view, the key stat in all of baseball is runs produced, home runs subtracted from RBI's, that is a much more accurate measure of offensive efficiency.

    OBP means -0- if they do not score.
     
  37. Ray Finkle

    Ray Finkle Member

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    Good way to explain it. Nice job!

    Ok but how do you score runs? By getting guys on base and driving them in.

    OBP means 0 if they don't score but if no one gets on base the team won't score either unless they hit home runs. But you can't rely only on home runs alone or the team will be terrible.
     
  38. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Forgive me as I interrupt for a moment to talk about the Atlanta Braves.

    When you're a team that can't score to save your lives and you get two on with no outs in a scoreless game with the bottom of the order coming up why don't you bunt the runners over to second and third? Why? And sure enough three consecutive batters failed to even move them one base over. How about a little bit of small ball here. This just baffles me. I'm talking about the fourth inning last night. If anybody has any logical reason why you don't just have Francoer bunt Anderson and Kotchman to second and third and give Ross a chance to drive one of them in with only one out please enlighten me. You have to try hard to blow as many scoring opportunities as Atlanta does. I barely watched any of the rest of the game I was so pissed off.
     
  39. charlestonphan

    charlestonphan Junior Member

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    wondered the exact same thing...
     
  40. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    How will any pitcher worth a **** want to pitch in Atlanta after this season? They better give the current guys a raise or something so they don't ask for a trade to a club where pitching shutout innings can actually get you a win.
     

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