1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

ANA, Bill, and now TS Claudette; the Tropics have come alive

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by cnc66, Aug 15, 2009.

  1. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    We are having one of the latest starts for the Atlantic basin in years for tropical activity. Overnight, we finally got our first tropical storm, Ana. This had been designated tropical depression two which due to Saharan dust and dry air has had a tough go of it since coming off the coast of Africa. Just yesterday at this time it lost it's TD designation only to organize like the Phoenix and come to back life today.

    For the moment, as this change happened overnight there are not a lot of up to date models, and discussion that go far enough into the future to give us a reasonable feel for anything more than three days or so. Models are mostly unreliable after the five day mark and those that show this system, and the next one have to be taken with a grain of salt. I bring it to everyone's attention because over the next ten or twelve days things could get very exciting (read dangerous as hell) in Florida and perhaps in the Gulf of Mexico...

    As in years past, I would urge you to go look for yourself at what "I" consider the finest weather resource available to us, the Weather Underground. Here is the link to the tropical pages, but believe me, there is so much more there. Snow reports for Greg, fire reports for John, one of the finest photo galleries I have ever perused. Doctor Jeff Masters has proven to be a very fine forecaster and I have witnessed his work saving lives. His blog has convinced people to evacuate when the National Weather service and the local Mets have failed to give a strong enough threat assesment. I will likely elaborate later on my feelings about this.


    Weather Underground Tropical pages

    Currently, the five day forecast takes Ana right to the doorstep of South Florida by dawn on Thursday. At this point, it is likely to just be a minimal hurricane at worse, a rain and gusty event at least. This storm should be a wake-up call for what is coming three or fours days afterwards. Here is the current 5 day forecast track for Ana, notice that it does not in "this" model reach hurricane strength.

    [​IMG]

    The models have been predicting a northward turn and this event has shifted east nearly every day. This predicted influence has also applied to the storm behind Ana, invest 90l, which is not yet organized enough to be given a name. It is the potential of "that" system which has "me" very concerned. I will go into both systems in greater detail when I get home from work later today.

    There has been agreement in nearly all models that 90l will become a major hurricane in the next couple of days and could be a Cat 3 or 4 at southern Florida on August 23. I would point out that this is the anniversary date of hurricane Andrew. As I said, more later today, please go look for yourself and read Dr. Masters blog, here is the link for that.. it can be found to the right on the the tropical pages linked above.

    Dr. Jeff Masters wunderblog

    Have a good day, I will be back later!
     
    gafinfan, SICK and hof13 like this.
  2. Miamian

    Miamian Senior Member

    6,312
    2,012
    0
    Dec 5, 2007
    Jerusalem, Israel
    There's always this ambivalence with hurricanes in south Florida. On the one hand, it's good for Florida when they pass over the Greater Antilles. The mountains there severely weaken the storms, but they wreak devastation on very poor people. If they pass more northerly then you get Andrew. Hopefully Ana will steer very north and miss the Caribbean and Atlantic Seaboard. Of course, that's not good for Bermuda.
     
  3. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    TS Ana page at Weather Underground

    Well, things have become quite lively since this morning. TD 3 has become TS Bill, and a low pressure trough coming through the Florida Keys blew up and has some rotation. First I will discuss TS Ana. The 1100edt 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    now the 1700est 5 day.. notice it has shifted south.. this am it was looking West Palm, at 1300est it was Homestead, now it's on top of Key West. This is good and bad depending on perspective. Good for me, I'm north of West Palm in Jensen Beach, could be bad for Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic and maybe Cuba... at THIS point.

    [​IMG]

    Here are some models that show the disagreement, the GDFL was the most accurate again last year, in my own mind, it has the most weight;

    [​IMG]

    I think Haiti is affected no matter and wish it wasn't so. If Ana is any kind of rain event people will die there. If Ana impacts the mountains it will tear her up but there will likely remain enough energy to reorganize once she hits the Caribbean or the straights of Florida. The GOM is very warm and will provide great energy so if the wind shear is favorable, Ana could become a threat to the Florida panhandle and perhaps New Orleans next. Remember Ike ran down the spine of Cuba too.

    Here is the NOGAPS model forecast for August 21.. notice the arrival times differ depending on the source, but the location is the same as the NHC 5 day forecast above, Key West Florida. Remember.. we have have a football game at JRS 7:30pm August 22, could be messy.. or not..;

    [​IMG]

    This is the NOGAPS for August 23.. the day that this mornings models had Bill arriving at Key West.. it's the orange blob east of Florida nearlu of top of Bermuda...Richard... you need to watching Bill brother. See how wacky things get more than a couple days in the future.. also SOMEBODY needs to be paying attention in the GOM, Ana is headed north at this point

    [​IMG]

    Sooo, just keep an eye or two tuned in if you might lie in harms way.

    TS Bill is next...
     
  4. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    TS Bill page at the Weather Underground. Please visit Dr. Masters site and explore all the options for your own weather. I have the Miami radar bookmarked and come there first. It is under the Miami Dolphins and ThePhins in my favorites.


    Bill, who had me nervous this morning is looking a lot less likely to strike southern Florida. This morning they were looking at Ana recurving to the north similar to what NOGAPS forecasts shown in the above post for Ana... only closer to the west coast of Florida. For reasons I do not understand yet most models and forecasters have Ana and Bill moving at very different forward speeds which drastically changes their relative forecast tracks. Here is the most current #2 5 day forecast track.. it has remained the same since this morning. Notice it strengthens to a Cat. 2.

    [​IMG]

    Here are some models.. they have tightened up since this morning, GDFL moved a little south.

    [​IMG]

    You can see where the GFS model trends here with the ensemble forecast. This agrees with the NOGAPS insofar as it is recurving before Florida, and not "at" Florida which is where things looked this morning. GFS is the red track above ^^ which is the same as the white one below.

    [​IMG]


    Here is what that tool is about;

    ENSEMBLE FORECASTING AT NCEP


    Earlier today in the visible satellite loop, which is now dark and I didn't save it, you could see the two storms connected with some sort of upper level cloud band. This is the North Atlantic water vapor loop.. moisture is the blood, you can see the energy interact. This is one of the first places I come when I want to see with my own eyes what is happening. Compare visible, infra red, and water vapor and you can see trends and strengths.

    Ana has been hampered for days with a dry air interface, you can see her trying to lift moisture and sweeten things in the bands to the NW. Bill is being flattened to the NW by a different push of dry air.. in it, is also a lot of Saharan dust which depresses evaporation. A still from the loop;

    [​IMG]

    Here is the infrared satellite loop, Ana leaving the view on the upper left, Bill to the right;

    [​IMG]

    next.. the blob
     
    m ino likes this.
  5. m ino

    m ino New Member

    1,142
    441
    0
    Jul 20, 2008
    thanks for the reports marty.we are definately keeping an eye(no pun intended)on these here in louisiana as well knowing theres no telling where they can go.we wish you guys in florida all the luck.

    im hoping ana doesn't stall in the gulf due to closesness of bill it's always possible ana could pull bill into it's direction.loking forward to your reports for the next few days.
     
    cnc66 likes this.
  6. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    The "blob"

    All images please credit Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground Nexrad

    Early this morning there wasn't but the hint of rotation, I thought it was my imagination, but a couple hours later begining at a little after 1000am where my radar loop picked up you can see things firing off and showing what the wind is doing. Key West radar, note the time at the top

    [​IMG]


    1958edt Key West
    [​IMG]

    now Tampa radar.. you can see it's creating a pretty big area of influence.. Cuba to Georgia I think we should be glad it doesn't have more time to spin up.

    [​IMG]

    NOGAPS - The Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System at 0100 Sunday night coming ashore in West Florida

    [​IMG]
     
  7. HolliFinFan

    HolliFinFan Not a Face Painter Luxury Box

    2,220
    1,480
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    South Florida
    What is it with fishermen and the Weather Underground? All love it :up: Something, even if just a scare, usually interrupts the beginning of school in some way it seems.
     
    cnc66 likes this.
  8. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    Lisa.. sailors lives depend on properly reading the weather, but you already know that, yer hubby is a Captain :hi5: ... a big chunk of the models and assets used in forecasting hurricanes and typhoons belong to the US Navy.

    ANA

    Well, lessee. Ana is having a tough go off it with the dry air. Was looking more like an open wave than a TD earlier, but, it's trying to reorganize.. notice the 5 day forecast track has continued to move south, and now runs across ALL the mountains.. I expect it to continue tracking further south and could see it missing Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic/Haiti and Cuba. The Caribbean is very warm SW of Cuba and if the mountains don't disrupt things Ana could start spinning up, Ike did this last year... those on the GOM need to keep a weather eye out for her next week. This mornings 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    BILL

    Bill is fighting dry air too, but has a much larger area of circulation so it's faring netter.You can see the dry air wrapping into the center of circulation which is inhibiting development. I really like the early morning, late afternoon loops as they cast shadows and show us cloud top details.. "Hot towers" are a sign of intensification and they shadows sometimes give us a peek at them.This mornings visible satellite loop;

    [​IMG]

    Here is the new 5 day forecast, please note that as the model moves forward, Bill intensifies.. it is forecast to be a cat 3 on day 5;

    [​IMG]

    here is the ensemble forecast, I added a little note to locate brother Con.. Richard, on Bimini, who will very likely be affected by this system.

    [​IMG]

    TD 4

    welll, the trough that showed some signs of rotation yesterday has intensified overnight and has shown some determined efforts at intensifying.. as I said last night.. good thing it doesn't have more time. It's forward speed of 16 mph+- is hampering developing and will put it ashore before it can spin up too bad. Some on the weather board predict this system will be upgraded and given a name at the 1100 advisory. Tampa WUNIDS radar current to 1045am. You can see this thing is really trying;

    [​IMG]

    North Atlantic water vapor
     
  9. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    000
    wtnt64 knhc 161616
    tcuat4
    tropical storm claudette tropical cyclone update...corrected
    nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al042009
    1215 pm edt sun aug 16 2009


    corrected for issuance time

    ...depression becomes tropical storm claudette...

    Data from the noaa doppler radar in tallahassee florida indicate
    that surface winds associated with the depression have increased to
    40 mph...65 km/hr...making the depression tropical storm claudette.
    Details will follow in the 2 pm edt intermediate advisory.

    $$
    forecaster roberts/brennan
     
  10. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

    31,582
    17,137
    0
    Nov 23, 2007
    Good morning! Ana has fallen apart and has been down graded, Bill has become a hurricane, and Claudette made landfall in the Florida panhandle last night around midnight.

    ANA

    The dry air just wrecked the center of circulation and she was downgraded from TS to TD yesterday. She passed over the northern Antilles last night.. same place Claudette was five days ago. The French West Indies radars had her as she passed and Puerto Rico has her now but there isn't much to see. Very little indication of rotation. Something that has happened that surprised me was after the models dipped further south late last night, they have risen northward this morning. The good news for the moment is major strengthening is not forecast.. but Claudette surprised us, lets hope Ana doesn't do the same.

    Here is the Puerto Rico radar current at 0545edt;

    [​IMG]

    This mornings 5 day forecast;

    [​IMG]

    Hurricane Bill gets his own thread

    TS Claudette made landfall at the eastern end of Santa rosa Island last night with 50 mph winds. I think everyone is lucky this storm didn't have more time to develop because she was sure trying. here is the current radar 0545 from Red Bay Florida;

    [​IMG]

    We are done with Ana.
     

Share This Page