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Schedules of our likely competition for playoff spots

Discussion in 'AFC East Rivals' started by padre31, Nov 17, 2009.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well the season is winding down and I've taken a look at the remaining 6 games for our most likely competition for a WC spot and can say that this is going to be one heck of a finish to the season.

    The Jags (5-4)

    @ Buffalo
    @ SF
    Houston (these guys are our main competition imho)
    Miami
    Indy
    @ NE (in late december)
    @Cleveland

    Houston Texans (5-4)

    Titans
    Indy
    @Jacksonville
    Seattle
    @St Louis
    @ Miami
    New England

    Pitt 6-3

    @ Baltimore
    @Oakland
    @Cleveland
    Green Bay
    Baltimore
    @Miami

    Baltimore (5-4)

    Colts
    Pittsburgh
    @Green Bay
    Detroit
    Chicago
    @Pittsburgh
    @Oakland

    Patriots for the AFCE crown (6-3)

    Jets
    @ New Orleans
    @Miami
    Carolina
    @Buffalo
    Jags
    @Houston

    What jumps out at me is we are just as likely to win the AFCE than we are to win a Wildcard birth, and Houston hold the key to our WC chances, especially "if" the Steelers sweep the Ravens and pretty much removing them from the derby.

    Indy at Houston is huge for us as well, I "think" we are looking at a situation were we need the texans to win, then alternatively, lose a win over the Jags is big for us, a loss to the Colts is also big for us.

    Pitt has a cakewalk outside of the ravens games, as do the ravens outside of the pitt games.

    And outside of the Saints game, our schedule mirrors the Patriot's schedule, a Jet win this Sunday would be a massive boost to our chances of winning the AFCE Crown this year.
     
  2. SargeZ33

    SargeZ33 Semperfi!

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    We face all of our playoff competitors. Easy, we controll our destiny. We win 6/7 games remaining, we get a playoff spot, and possibly the afcE. 5/7 and we have a chance at a wc with help. 4/7, Its been real, but its over.
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, I sort of thought that as well, however we are also 2 games behind the teams ahead of us, meaning even head to head wins are not enough.

    We need the "right" teams to win, then lose, the Texans knock off the Pats and the Jags knock off the Texans.

    The worst case scenario is "if" the Steelers and Ravens split their games, we really need the Steelers to knock off the ravens while we beat them in wk 17.
     
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  4. jetssuck

    jetssuck I hear Mandich's voice...

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    Nice work padre.....I agree, the division crown almost appears to be the easier goal.

    A win Thursday night and we're back in the hunt
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, shoot, the winner and loser of the AFC West derby are also in the mix, the Bolts and Broncs are tied at 6-3, the loser of the AFC West crown also enters the derby.
     
  6. Brown42000

    Brown42000 Chillin

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    Root for SD.
     
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  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yep, we need SD to win the AFC West now.

    So this week

    Jests over Patsies
    Titans over Texans
    Bills over Jaguars
    Indy over Baltimore
    Chiefs over Steelers.
    Chargers over Broncos
     
  8. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    realize it would help us for the playoffs if the colts beat the ravens but i cant help but root for the ravens. colts need to lose one game before i can root for them. same for the saints
     
  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Why? The Patsies have already went 16-0, so it doesn't matter if the Colts do as well, and they are not winning the SB anyway so let them bludgeon the Ravens and Texans.
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Alright...

    Jests lost 31-14

    Bills lost 18-15

    Indy won 17-15

    Chiefs won 27-24

    Chargers won 34-3

    3-2, not bad, with the Titans playing the Texans on MNF

    4-2 would be nice going forwards.
     
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And the Titans took care of the Texans, 4-2, we gained ground on the Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Broncos.

    This week:

    Patriots v Saints
    Steelers v Ravens
    Giants v Broncos
    49ers v Jags
    Indy v Texans

    Think about this, "if" the Saints win, we move into 1 game out in the AFCE, if the Giants win, we move into a tie with the Broncos who started 6-0, 49ers win we move into a tie with the Jags, Colts win we move cleanly past the Texans, Ravens win we move into a tie with the Steelers.

    A win in Buffalo combined with that would put us either into the 7th Wildcard slot, or 1 game out, a Saints win and we move into 1 game out in the AFCE.

    With the Pats coming down to Miami for the lead in the AFCE, and we hold the AFCE tie breakers.

    Huge two weeks coming up.
     
  12. High Definition

    High Definition No Smoke / No Drink 2011+

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    This.

    Go Colts (regular season).
     
  13. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

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    I'd like to see the Steelers finish off the Ravens this week. Those two teams still have to play each other twice down the stretch and we don't have Baltimore on our schedule. I'd be perfectly happy to see Denver removed from the playoff hunt as well (another team not on our schedule). Its two less teams we'd have to "worry" about, and we'd be back in control of our playoff destiny.

    I haven't looked into all the scenarios and tiebreakers yet, but if Baltimore and/or Denver and Miami all win out, would they hold the tiebreakers over us?

    I'd prefer to remove that situation entirely from the equation because that possibility doesn't exist with the Steelers, provided we take care of our own business.
     
  14. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Scoreboard watching on Thanksgiving

    Typically Thanksgiving football is not very important, in fact the games rarely effect the Dolphins season.

    This year however, the Giants and Broncos is a key game for us, a Broncos loss and a Win in Buffalo and we move ahead of the Broncos in the Wildcard race..
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Giants got blown out by the Broncos.

    AFC Wildcard right now:

    Steelers v Ravens
    Jags vs 49ers


    ______

    Broncos weekend off
    Ravens vs Steelers
    Texans vs Colts
    Dolphins vs Bills

    If we beat the Bills, and the Colts and Steelers win, we move up behind the Broncos into the #4 slot for the 2 Wildcard positions.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, through no fault of our own, we are still in the Wildcard Hunt:

    Jags lost
    Steelers lost
    Texans lost
    Titans won


    Moving forwards:

    Texans at Jacksonville
    Pitt at Oakland
    Baltimore at Green Bay

    Despite ourselves, we have an excellent chance to gain ground in the WC race with a win over the Patriots.

    Our last games are all against teams in contention for the playoffs:

    Patriots (Home), Jacksonville (away), Titans (away), Texans (Home), Steelers (home).

    And once again, "if" we win out, we make the playoffs.

    BTW if we had beaten the Bills we would have moved ahead of the Jags, Texans, and tied with Steelers and Ravens...that was a crushing loss.
     
  17. The Dolfan

    The Dolfan New Member

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    Demoralizing, crushing, pathetic, ridiculous, gut-wrenching, exasperating, disgusting, and absurd are the words that I would choose to describe that loss.
     
  18. RickyBobby

    RickyBobby VIP DIY

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    God that loss hurt uss so badly now we have no room to mess up but we can still do it so maybe just maybe we can do it
     
  19. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well as it stands now it looks like the 6 spot team will most likely have 6 losses (7 isn't really out of the picture but not likely). With the schedules of Pitt. and Baltimore finishing undefeated looks to be a tall task much like Miami. I think this is going to be a wild one down the stretch and I think the team looking the best right now has to be Tennessee but who knows.

    I do know this, if Miami goes 5-0 and Baltimore loses just once Miami should get the 6 spot (hopefully Denver will free fall and the AFC East will remain open as well). After the pathetic loss to Buffalo obviously I give this about a 10% chance of happening but hey if Miami beats NE we'll have our swagger back.

    Let the cards fall where they may. All I know is that I am a Miami Dolphins fan no matter what. :up:
     
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  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, believe it or not, the Colts are the Dolphins best friends for making the playoffs:

    Titans
    Jaguars
    Broncos
    Jets

    Basically the Colts can knock out two of our competitors, hurt the Broncos and eliminate the Jets.

    A Jags win over the Texans would also help us out, as would a single, surprise loss by the steelers or ravens.
     
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  21. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well luckily for me the Colts are my backup NFL team so this only gives me more reason to root for them. :lol:

    The main thing I think is that the Colts may not even factor in much if Miami takes care of business. Miami if they win out will have tiebreakers against; Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, and Pittsburgh (oh and let's not forget we already have the tiebreaker over the Jets). The game I think Miami has to watch closely is the Week 16 matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Luckily the Steelers will be at home and probably with Roethlisberger this time. The Fins really need Pitt. to win that game because that could eliminate the one team Miami doesn't have direct control over down the stretch. Take into consideration Baltimore also having Green Bay and Chicago on that schedule and you can see why Pittsburgh may be their death blow.

    Its simple for Miami...just win out. Will it be easy or likely...well no...but the truth is everything is still in Miami's hands besides someone needing to beat Baltimore. That is remarkable considering the Buffalo debacle.
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The real effect of the Bills loss was to eliminate us from direct competition for the AFC east Title, we can still win it, but we need help.

    The WC is a direct path.

    The Broncos remaining schedule

    KC
    Colts
    Oakland
    Philly
    KC

    If the Broncos have a surprise loss that would help tremendously.
     
  23. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well I want the AFC East or the 5 spot if possible but at this point I think those are just wishful thinking (although the Saints could give us hope).

    The 6 spot is the one Miami should really worry about and hey if NE or Denver choose to hit a bad stretch Miami can scavenge the benefits. :yes:
     
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  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, fundamentally you are correct Sking, the Dolphins control their own destiny, simply win the games, otherwise threads like this one are useless.

    I "think" we can survive a loss to the Patriots, but we would be down to the longest of shots.
     
  25. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well Padre I am trying to keep the playoff path as simple as possible so I don't get myself all flustered. :lol:

    All I am looking at is Miami needs to...just win baby. :up:

    Also no a NE loss wouldn't kill Miami but to be honest if it isn't over already that would just be icing on the cake. Really though being knocked out of the playoffs by NE and Buffalo would just be horrible.
     
  26. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well Skiing to be honest 9-7 with our schedule, and starting 0-3, and the injuries would be one hell of an accomplishment.

    9-7 would put us on the "needs help" list for the playoffs, but a rookie Qb, rookie Db's and Ginn not developing as well as Fasano's inconsistent play, is nothing to sneeze at.


    Interesting game coming up vs the Pats though, a real gut check for the Defense, do we have a Jets on MNF type of effort or a Bills clueless and beaten up type of effort?
     
  27. 2k5

    2k5 I miss Ted Ginn Jr.

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    Looking at things, I guess I kind of expected to lose to the Patriots even though I think we should beat them, so if we do end up winning, we'll be right where I expected. The Bills loss hurts bad, but we can undo a little of the damage if we can just win this week.

    Rationalization FTW
     
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  28. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well Padre don't get me wrong I'll take 8-8 or above with this schedule and bad start. Coming into this year I had Miami at 7 to 9 wins and at best sneaking in the 6 spot at 10-6 or 11-5 if Brady was still hurting (division win here).

    Heck with the Bills game performance I could see 5-11 even as that loss was a perfect snapshot at what's wrong with this team. I'm simply pointing out that it's not over quite yet (although very close) and that there is still a chance. Do I see Miami going 5-0?...no but can they?...yes. So although 10-6 and a playoff spot would be great I don't see it as really realistic and 7-9 or above would be good enough for me. I want the best but can settle.

    Until Miami is mathematically eliminated I'll keep up hope even if my mind knows it's basically over. :up:
     
  29. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

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    We're two games back of the #5 seed in Denver (whom we don't play) and we're a game back of a group of 6-5 teams (PIT, BAL, JAX) one of which (BAL) we don't play.

    That's the very definition of not controlling your own destiny.
     
  30. FINintheMOON

    FINintheMOON Moderator Luxury Box

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    Had we beat the BILLS... We would be currently sitting at the second wildcard spot if playoffs were to start today and in prime position to win the division... But these FINS seem to want to take the HARD road...

    Now we have a hole to climb out of and I think we can do it with some help, which all of you have identified...
     
  31. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, we play:

    Jax
    Pit
    Texans

    And Pitt and the Ravens are tied, and play each other again..meaning one of those teams will have an additional loss, meaning conceivably the Ravens could beat us out for the last WC slot, but they have to run the table, the same as we must.
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Houston comes to Jacksonville, the Texans are 5-6, the Jags are 6-5, we could use a Jags loss.

    Texans win puts them at 6-6 and tied with Jags.

    At Cleveland, no doubt the Steelers move to 7-5


    Green Bay in Green Bay on MNF, a Ravens loss would be huge for us.

    In Miami, the game in Buffalo in the dead of winter is no gimmie for them either.

    Or other competition is the Titans, the Colts travel to TN to take on the Titans, clearly a Colts win would be huge for us.

    Here is the situation, the loss to the Bills was crucial, but not defining, if we beat the patriots and the Jags, Ravens and Titans lose, we move into a tie for like 8th place in the WC race with game against our rivals for the last wildcard spot.

    Basically, a win and a Ravens loss in Green Bay and we are in control of our own fate, a loss and we are 85% cooked, unless the Steelers and Ravens just collapse and both lose two games, if they do then winning our remaining 4 games puts us into the last WC slot.
     
  33. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well this is going to be interesting now. :lol:

    I believe that right now if Miami wins out that Baltimore would be the only team that could stand in our way (Miami winning out takes care of the rest). So right now I am a huge GB fan.

    Of course who knows the division isn't even out of the question now. This is going to get interesting.
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    It was a surprising win, but the Texans choked and the Jags won, that gives them a 2 game cusion.

    The Steelers losing helps,
     
  35. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well Jacksonville is 7-5 so that's only a game ahead of Miami but maybe you mean because of tiebreakers but if Miami beats JAX won't Miami have the head to head tiebreaker?

    I think so and if that's the case Miami is only a game back.
     
  36. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Miami wins out they'll make it. It's more or less guaranteed unless Baltimore rips off their five remaining games. Denver has an advantage on us. If they even lose two they'll still make it with us winning out. It'll come down to strength of victory and they'll likely have that. The five spot is likely theirs the rest of the way.

    The Jacksonville game next week will be a tough one. At least we don't face anyone like Moss or Welker. I would say their defense is a little bit better at picking off the ball but not they've still got weaknesses. A smart game and Miami can get out of there finally above 500 for the first time this season.
     
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  37. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Heh heh

    There is a quite story cooking in Miami:

    Steelers...lost now 6-6

    Texans lost now 5-7

    Colts won Titans now 5-7

    Awaiting Ravens v Green Bay, packers win we draw even closer


    Jags are our nemesis...we beat them and the Ravens lose...we tied for the last WC slot...
     
  38. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Houston losing Matt Shaub could both be a blessing and a curse.

    The Pats need to lose one more game, possibly to Houston. It would be nice if Houston beats them, Johnson and Daniels would torch that secondary, but with no Shaub it looks like a pipe dream.
     
  39. sking29

    sking29 What it takes to be cool

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    Well NE also has JAX which could be a tricky game. However with their remaining schedule I do see NE going 4-0...the schedule has only one team above .500 (of course you can say the same for Miami).

    The schedule favors NE and their offense should get them through. Of course the media will love them at 11-5 and having a strong final stretch. They won't pay attention to them playing sub par teams mostly with decent to bad defenses. Then NE will get in the playoffs and probably knock off Denver only to get put out in the divisional round (conference championship at best).



    I just think Miami needs to shoot for the much more attainable 6 spot (or even 5 spot) and if NE does have a slip up maybe Miami does get the division.
     
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  40. High Definition

    High Definition No Smoke / No Drink 2011+

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    Damn those garbage *** Bills. That game is going to haunt me for a while.

    I'm pretty much banking on New England to win out.

    We need to win out as well. If we win out, we're good, IMO. Baltimore will lose at least one more game, hopefully @PIT to drop their division record (tie breaker) to 3-3. We control the fate of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in a win out scenario.

    I don't think 9-7 is going to be enough, but it could be. That 7th loss would have to be to Houston or Tennessee, and even losing to Tennessee is playing with fire. They have one other tough game left, and it's a home game against San Diego. JUST WIN OUT!
     

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