OK I have a free weekend in China before heading back had some videos and some time on my hands, so I started looking at them and came up with my personal preliminary QB rankings. I will go through what I see and in the order I looked at them and rank them at the end. Personally I can only go with what I see and many times I disagree with the draft pundits, gurus, and what is said because many many times I just do not see what others are writing…..and sometimes I do……. but I have historically been a lot more right than wrong especially with Quarterbacks and wanted to give my opinion here…..so that is the caviat..........that and the fact I have missed most of three weeks games during my trip so i may have missed some growth in some guys games. I do not see Miami picking a QB this year although if a long time starter with upside like Lefevour, Smith or Robinson drops late they may present some value. Jake Locker, Washington: The more I watch Jake Locker the more I want him on my team and the more I think he is just average. I love his comfort level inside and outside the pocket; I really like his toughness and competitiveness. He is obviously confident on the field, a good leader and perhaps even a bit too cocky in his reads thinking he has more arm than he does especially on the sit down routes. Maybe he read some Internet reports because the more I see him the more I see his arm as average. He is a very good athlete and that allows him to position himself to make most throws at the NCAA level in some space. The down side I see in Locker is he is very inconsistent in his arm slot and feet (VERY INCONSISTENT)….sometimes he has a perfect arm slot and sometimes he looks like a HS QB…sometimes his footwork is perfect and sometimes it is terrible. He obviously has the ability because he flashes good mechanics. I did not see the downfield gambler that I read about so I looked closer at his stats. 17-10 TD-INT ratio, 56.7% completion percentage and a YPA at one of the lowest of the “top” QB’s showed me what I saw was true or at least the stats bore it out…a guy that does not throw particularly accurately deep or outside the hash, an average arm, fantastic touch and is very productive outside the pocket….i.e. A West coast QB… He may grow up and may be a big time QB because he flashes the skills but IMHO he is a very risky pick and I do not see the upside to be a top 10 guy…but it only takes one team to see it….RISKY IMHO. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss. For all the bad publicity this guy has gotten and from some on this site also, I think most are missing something here. Despite the numbers which I looked at, the guy has a huge arm, nice consistent short release and footwork and enough AA to slide around in the pocket. He has grown up and refused to throw a terrible OL and WR group under the bus. The games I have I see no comparison to the top QB’s with regard to WR separation and OL play….his team around him is a 3 win team in reality and has 3 players on Offense right now. He had a terrible Alabama Game and if you throw out the game when his team was horribly overmatched then he has some decent numbers also. 17-10 (same as Locker yet Sneed is referred to as a “turnover machine” and Locker is not), a higher (than Locker) although still low YPA of 7.13 and a low 52.9% completion percentage mostly because he could not throw the ball in the ocean against SC and Alabama and kept trying to force the ball up field and his WR’s give him ZERO windows. The interesting part is going back to watch the games that his team was so far down and uncompetitive that he had to throw downfield and force balls. The bottom line is that from a tools standpoint I see much more in Snead than Locker. I think Snead has the tools to be a big time surprise in the NFL. I also think he must be “handled” differently. I do not think he is instant offense but if you give him some decent tools around him he has proven he has grown up and is tough and not going to be destroyed in development by playing. He will start slow IMHO and be a very good NFL QB IMHO. He has too many tools and we are wrong in evaluating him in the terrible environment he plays in right now. Bottom line the numbers are close to Lockers yet Locker is ascending and we are down on Snead yet Snead IMHO clearly has as many tools…so I really do not get that point but bottom line I like Sneads tools. Christian Ponder FSU: Ponder does not have the arm of an elite QB IMHO but his footwork is excellent and his field vision sets him apart. He is a good leader and very consistent in his mechanics. He is very consistent in his accuracy and FSU does not dominate outside like they have historically so the windows are small. He has excellent vertical touch and on crossing routes rather than a power arm like Snead that contributes to a high YPA. He has improved every year and IMHO is going to be a consistent productive QB even if that is as a long time backup you can count on. I thought his arm was better until I looked closer but he can play and I look at arm as either you have enough or not enough and he has enough, possibly just not in every system. He is a lot like Locker in that you want him on your side. His numbers are 14-7, 68.8 Completion percentage and a good 8.23 YPA. Probably will return anyway. Dan Lefeavour, Central Michigan: A good leader, tough and athletic. He has a plus arm, good touch, good mechanics from what I have seen. He does have a bit of a long delivery and look more mechanical in his feel for the game and delivery than a “natural”. He takes very deliberate and a bit slow progressions, and has a bit of an exaggerated over the top delivery. He is a top athlete from what I see and throws much better on the run than in the pocket. I do not think he is as NFL ready as I had read despite some excellent numbers. Right now a better athlete than QB but does offer some significant mid round upside IMHO. I like him but there is something that feels “mechanical” and less natural about him as a QB. Just having trouble buying totally all in here with him. His numbers are very very good at 22-5, 71.7% and 7.89 YPA. Need to see him some more and take a better look. Tony Pike, Cincy. OK I will probably get crushed on this one also. The more and closer I watch Tony Pike the less I like him. He has good size a nice delivery but winds up sometimes, good footwork but his arm IMHO is marginal to make the next step IMHO. He has backup written all over him to me. He has some things to like such as his height, he has good pocket movement, he is generally pretty accurate and when he has time he can bring the ball pretty well when he reaches back. But he does not have the quick snappy delivery and throws to a lot of wide open windows so he does not have a history of tight areas. He also throws better inside and crossing routes. He loves the skinny post corner as his outside route and has very good timing on it but rarely drives the ball outside the hash. Numbers are 17-3, 64%, and 8.12. Colt McCoy Texas; McCoy has great AA, is very poised, never gets rattled, is amazingly accurate has good touch and great mechanics. He is a good leader. He moves around well, is very smart, makes great reads and can make throws inside and outside the pocket vertical or crossing, and has good touch.. He basically has it all if you are sold on his arm. Regardless, he is going to play a long time based on his ability to make the short and medium throws. Whether you think he is a “franchise” QB is up to how you view his arm and his ability to transition to an under center QB. Personally I do not think he has an elite arm but has enough arm. IMHO McCoy will be a solid NFL QB. His numbers right now are 19-9, 72.4% and 7.49. Sam Bradford Oklahoma: Bradford has little to evaluate this year but he is a little like McCoy…only better. Has a natural throwing motion and a nice high easy delivery. Looks like a “natural” QB. He has some lazy hips but when he does rotate he has some very good velocity. He is accurate, has touch, timing and reads velocity needed very well. Seems to go to the right spot quickly so he looks like he understands defenses well and has all the tools IMHO. The injuries knock him down a bit. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: OK do not see an elite QB……..IMHO I see an average arm mybe a tad better than that, good timing, very good high release but slow IMHO, and he anticipates better than any QB in CFB IMHO and a lot of jump balls and wide open receivers. I think he fits the system at ND very well but I personally do not see the tools that make him an elite QB. Great numbers and a good release point and a slightly plus arm…..but……his footwork is not great and is inconsistent, and he has to load the ball and wind up to throw deep and he loves to throw vertical anticipation routes. Looks like an ole time Raider QB IMHO and will take a lot of sacks IMHO at the NFL level. Numbers are outstanding. 21-4, 67.4 and 8.72. Zac Robinson, Okie State. I like Robinson myself. You worry about being a “system” QB in the spread or version of the spread, but Robinson has size, AA and a good arm. He anticipates well and has outstanding vertical accuracy. He reads velocity well and can drive the ball when he needs to. He looks like one of the better game managers IMHO and can get outside the pocket IMHO. He takes what the D gives him and will take the downfield throw. Looks like an efficient QB with AA and some upside and enough arm. He is accurate and has enough tools to play in the NFL as a starter IMHO. Numbers are 15-7, 63.5, and 7.72. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan. Only have the Michigan game but really not sold on this guy. Looked scared and like there was not enough arm or timing. Looked like just another QB. Need to watch some more video before evaluating too much, but did not see it on the first pass for sure. Rusty Smith, FAU: Need to watch some more but looked to have good timing and a pretty good arm so worth spending some time finding some more videos and he lists at 6-5. Ryan Mallet, Arkansas. Great size and a power plus arm. Motion is a bit long but has a great power arm. Timing is average but can touch the vertical ball well. Is inconsistent and can be very inaccurate but man what an arm. He does wind up at times but can really drill the intermediate sit down routes. Does not have great talent around him so he may blossom more in the NFL. Has absolutely zero mobility and does not move around inside the pocket well. 23-4, 59.5%, 7.06. Tim Tebow, Florida: Great character, size and a decent arm, Terrible weird mechanics and widely inaccurate into come back or crossing routes and really like the sit down or spatial routes. Reaaaaalllly misses Harvin and Murphy on those wide open crossing routes underneath Accurate vertically but has some huge spaces to throw to. Great runner but I really do not see him as an NFL QB, but I sure do not want to bet against the guy. Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee: No one was more down on this guy than me…but he has bounced back nicely and actually grown up in leaps and bounds as a QB. Solid size and arm and always has had tools but has been wildly inaccurate, not a great game manager and rather intimidated on the field. BUT as the season has gone on he has become very accurate read the game well and really learned the QB position. And IMHO he always had the size, arm and touch….not many starts or experience but I think someone to take a much closer look at in the post season as he has really developed. Numbers are actually solid after a TERRIBLE start…….he is learning quickly. 23-10, 58.5%, 7.06. Pat Devlin, Delaware. Good size and a power plus arm with good touch. Only saw highlights and one game and he is a junior but really flashed some tools and I want to see some more. 15-6, 62.2, 7.89. MY RANKINGS: Again just my ranking and I am sure others have different opinions and I am very sure they will be selected differently and their end values for teams will be different but this is what I see with my eyes right now. Sam Bradford Jevan Snead Colt McCoy Christian Ponder Ryan Mallet Jake Locker Zach Robinson Dan Lefeavour Tony Pike Pat Devlin Rusty Smith Tim Hiller Jimmy Claussen Jonathan Crompton Tim Tebow Guys that need to be looked at closer Juice Williams (Illinois), Daryl Clark (Penn State), Jarrett Brown (WVU), Ryan Perrilioux (Jax st.), John Skelton (Forham), and Max Hall (BYU).
Your the first person ive seen that has claussen as low as I do..Lets put it this way, he's not even on my list.. Tebow's a wildcard.. Id take him on my team if he dropped for some reason, and build the sickest hybrid power offense ever, lol..it'll never happen but could you imagine. Nice write up 2 cents.
Ponder's arm is more than strong enough. Snead is a turnover machine. For every good throw or good game, you get a series of costly plays. Watch the Tennessee game as a perfect example.
played against jarrett brown from WVU in highschool all 4 years.....hes big, strong, and has some speed and a strong arm....with the correct coaching he can change some things and be a good qb imo
Nice post m2c. Snead- I agree, more talent than he's been given credit for lately. I've been trying to like Shay Hodge, but it seems that when I've seen some parts of Old Miss games Hodge is good for a drop or worse. I remembered a play that brought to mind this year's combo of Snead's so-so play and also bad luck: [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwzu2vy4Ryg"]YouTube- Jevan Snead Highlight Auburn Ole Miss 2009 Interception for Touchdown, Walter Mcfadden[/ame] Teddy Ginn vs. New Orleans redux. I think that's Hodge on the receiving end, but I'm not sure. You're right about Snead's good arm and compact delivery- time will tell if this is just an off year. LeFeavour- dude's been around for a while- looks much bigger than he did when I saw him while looking for that OT taken in the 1st by SF. Also Mormino on that OL. He had a certain spark about him back in 2007, now he's bigger and has 3yrs more experience. Interesting prospect. Tebow- I disagree on the crossing pattern accuracy point. He's had good moments and bad- see last year Alabama and Oklahoma for some of the good- but dude is not wildly inaccurate on crossing patterns. He hasn't been the same since the concussion and losing Harvin/Murphy didn't help. Murphy fell too far, btw. Murphy has speed and explosion that Pat Turner never will. He dropped too many easy passes at UF, though. Cost himself big money. He would have fit in very nicely for the Fins this year. Bradford is pinpoint accurate, but the two guys that I can see transitioning to the pros the best are McCoy and Ponder. Both are accurate, can move very well, and have that vibe (Ponder turned on that vibe in the second half of the year- lightswitch went on-more legitimate than Claussen imo) that they will be able to control and win games at the next level. High draft picks both of them.
Tebow hasn't gotten any better as a pro prospect this year, which is a surprise given that he's supposed to be working on the pro components of his game.
I think the Alabama game was more of one bad example of Snead being over his head but I get his inconsistencies at UT. I really do get what you are saying about Snead being a "turnover machine"....I really do...I do not necessarily agree on why and I think we disagree on his skills but Tater and tatoe and I always respect your opinion as you know......the part I do not understand is people being so down on Snead and yet Locker is not referred to in the same vein....Snead's numbers are 17-14 with 4 pics coming when over matched and behind and forcing everything against Bama....Lockers are 17-10...fairly close and even if you "choose" o throw out the Bama game for Snead....but Locker has been sacked 24 times to Snead's 12 and fumbled 7 times to Sneads 3........so really I get the Snead issue and I am not confused by it...I am confused by why Snead is a "turnover machine" yet Locker has turned the ball over more or just as much, taken more sacks, they both SUCK as far as completion %, Snead has a better YPA and yet Locker is becoming everyone's darling despite Snead having arguable and IMHO better "tools" as far as release and gun?
Agreed. Its really painful to watch Tebow throw it but damn he is quite the athlete. only goes so far drafting a College superstar. Reggie Bush put fans in he the Aints hype machine rolling. Of course he has a role in the offense but he was drafted to be that every down back. If a team drafts him it will be because of the WC. I'm interested to see how he could do running the football in the Pro's. Tebow would be the kiss of death to the Jacksonville franchise.
i'm with you on Snead. Lots of turnovers but lots of talent there too. To me he's like Stafford, someone i would never spend a 1st on but would jump to take a flyer on in the 2nd. He probably stays another year but if he decides to come out a team like Minnesota or Buffalo could do alot worse. max hall and darryl clark are decent 7th rounders but i wouldnt draft them higher than that. dont bother with juice williams
Not denying Snead's talent. But he has along way to go. I also know from when he was at Texas, that he was a slow learner and it was why he didn't overtake Colt McCoy. It's been an issue in Oxford as well.
That is one of my points..look at them on offense....Snead has who that is definitely draftable......Jerry, McCluster and Hodge. He has a TERRIBLE LT and his LG Neeley is just about as bad........Locker has who that is definitely draftable.......Chris Polk, Johnson, Aguilar, Kearse, Ossai, Habben and probably Middelton and maybe even Tolar? ...now granted most of Lockers talented teammates are underclassmen but they are way more talented than Ole Miss and Snead has his team at 8-3 or so and UW is what 3 or 4 and 7............
I would pretty much disagree on a level quite unfounded that the Washington offense is better than the Ole Miss offense. McCluster's better than anyone Washington have had since Napolean Kaufman.
somebody's gotta build an offense around the skills of Colt mccoy {theres some brees in him}.... he's another player combined with tebow, that have the skills that could continue this slight change in philosophy of the NFL proset.... Its the vince young syndrome, try to make him something he's not, and fail, build the offense and commit to what he does well, and win.
I agree. That movement, accuracy and underrated arm strength. You get the RIGHT offense for him and he can be very good. In the final analysis, if you can match him with a back like a Steven Jackson, he's going to be a player in this league.
Fair enough. I will have to disagree with much respect in this case, and I do mean with much much respect for your opinion Boomer. I think Polk will end up being drafted 30-50 spots ahead of McCluster when all is said and done...Polk is a Freshman remember and IMHO will end up being more talented and well rounded than Nap...JMHO though.......
Back at ya Ray. Suffice to say that as you say, Polk IS a freshman and Dexter is a senior. If Polk was in this year's draft, I know who'd go higher and it's not Polk.
I'm having a real hard time with this QB class and of course we're a long way from being done, but the more I watch Jimmy Clausen, the more I raise him on my list. What I like about him is that year on year there's been a big improvement and earlier in the year I thought the jump was small, but his 2nd half of the season improvement is strong. The last 3 games - Pitt, UCONN and Stanford - you can take the level of his wideouts and the level of competition, I'll give you that, but what you can't argue with is the fact that he never once mailed it in. He's turned into a leader as the season got worse and I have to give him great credit for that. Plus, his arm is very strong. He puts some serious leather on those outs to the wide side of the field. The post Pitt game issues are still issues, but when you consider he's a junior, this kid is going to vault to the top of the board after the Combine when teams get a close look at that rifle. McCoy has had a brilliant 2nd half of the season and as I've said over and again, you put him in the right offense and he'll flourish. The accuracy and ability to manipulate the pocket as well as gain yard with his feet is hard to quantify. Essentially he's Vince Young with a stronger arm and a career completion rate of above 70%. Bradford's inability to stay healthy on that shoulder and his slight frame is a worry. Locker we all know about the upside and how bad UW are, but the inconsistency WILL affect the final grade. Same with Snead. Ponder IMO stays at FSU.
The guy who stands out for me is Tony Pike out of Cincinnati; You got to love what this kid brings to the table and the first that stands out is his size; he stands at 6"6 with a frame that sure could support more weight. One thing to play devil advocate would be to look at the success of back-up Quarterback Zach Collaros when Pike was injured. Could he be a product of a system? There is a possibility but Pike has great arm strength and brings a deal of poise to the table as well. One knock on Pike has been how accurate is this guy? The guy completes over 65% of his passes but tends to miss some easy throws. There is no knocking his stats which have him throwing 23 TD tosses to only 3interceptions. One thing I have noticed is that he hasn't been holding onto the ball as much as he was a season ago and is really taking less sacks. Some would argue that Pike has Mardy Gilyard to throw the rock to but what does that say about Jimmy Clausen who has two 1st Round talents in Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy have some good receivers catching the ball for them as well. I see Pike as a real possibility for a team like the Seahawks or Bills in Round 2
