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Win out we're in!!!!!!!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dolphin4life, Dec 13, 2009.

  1. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    hey guys!!!
    How about if NE wins out, they would win the division at 11-5.
    now if we win out and so does BAL we would both finish at 10-6. The JAGS will lose at least 1 game to either the PATS or INDY. The Jets will also lose 1 game to either INDY or CINCY.
    Now the tie breaker with BALTIMORE=
    1. head to head cancels out cause we did not play them.
    2. Conference records we would both be 8-4.
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Tat also cancels out cause we dont have 4 common games with them.
    4.Strength of victory. Srength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. So we would beat them on that tie break cause our 10 opponent would have a better winning percentage theirs. BALTIMORE have gotton 2 wins against the BROWNS, a win against KC and also a win against LIONS. The combined records of those 4 wins are 9-43.

    We control our own destiny we win out were in:up:
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wait, ive been under the impression that the ravens have to lose 1...

    This would be great news for the team.
     
  3. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    actually, we have four common opponents, we have both played SD, NE, Indie and the Steelers. AND to make things worse we lose that tie breaker 2-3 to 3-2.
     
  4. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Over Yonder
    If the Steelers can beat the Ravens, we're good.


    Also, we must take into account a 3 or 4 way tie. Right now our win over Jax is useless because head to head doesnt matter in a 4 way tie. We gotta hope it does come down to just 2 teams. I hope its Mia and Nyj at 10-6, and our head to head knocks them out.

    Although, the ideal situation would be if the Pats lose 1 and we win 3.
     
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  5. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    we can still lose 1 game at make it, but we would need BALTIMORE to lose 1 game or NE to lose 1 game as well. I just dont think they will lose a game. BAL has the Bears @ home, on the road in PITT and OAK. NE has BILLS on the road, JAGS @ home, and end the season in HOUSTON.
     
  6. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    You are incorrect, if we lose a game we need the Steelers, Jets and Jags to lose one. We would need for the Ravens to lose two.
     
  7. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    if the ridiculous scenarios dont play out we have a qb
    happy about that
     
  8. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    my bad i didnt realize they played NE. I knew the RAVENS played SD, INDY, and PITT. Lets hope bills beat NE or STEELERS play for pride and beat the RAVENS.
     
  9. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    id rather have a qb with playoff experience. :wink2:
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wait?..so if we win out were in or not?
     
  11. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    who cares
    win out and then we will know
     
  12. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    NOT!!!!!

    Winning out is important..gets us to 10-6; buy we need help by having either NE or BAL losing 1 game, or DEN losing 2.

    We do not WIN any tie-breakers...so 10-6 would put us out of the playoff mix if NE, BAL or DEN do not suffer loses as listed above.
     
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  13. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Question Dolfans: If we make the playoffs and win in the first round, who would you rather face? Chargers or Colts? I think I'd rather face the Colts. Yeah we almost beat the chargers in SD even after that horrible fumble and losing Penny. But imagine if we had another chance to block the Colts from going undefeated?

    I know it's too early to think about this, but we have to talk about something until the big day on Sunday haha.
     
  14. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    how about this scenario
    we lose to TENN and beat TEXANS and STEELERS, we would finish 9-7.
    RAVENS lose to STEELERS and beat the BEARS and OAK. They would be 9-7.
    Jags will Lose to INDY and the PATS and beat the BROWNS they would 8-8.
    JETS beat the ATL and CINCY and lose to INDY. they would be 9-7.
    We would get the final wild card spot at 9-7.
     
  15. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    Lets just hope we win out at 10-6. All we need is NE to lose 1 game to either BILLS,JAGS or the TEXANS. We would win the division. we would also be the 3rd seed if the BENGALS lose to SD and the JETS. Both those games are on the road.
     
  16. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Sure, there are lots of various scenarios that are to improbable to list.

    Any lose by Phins reguires the right mix of loses by others to get us back in the mix....if they dont happen we are done.

    And other scenarios that work; like DEN losing 2 or CIN losing all 3 of their remaining games that would get us in even if we win out and so does NE and BAL....but...the easiest is WIN all 3 of our remaining games and get help from NE and BAL suffering a single loss.

    Any other scenarios goes out the window if those other loses you list above do not pan out exactly.

    But lots of scenarios to play with.....

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=currentStandings
     
  17. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Den losing 2 additional games or 1 more game?
     
  18. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    If we win the last three games and that's a major IF, Denver likely will be 10-6 and Baltimore 10-6.

    1. We're not part of the same division tiebreaker.
    2. We didn't play both teams so head-to-head doesn't matter.
    3. The conference record is identical in the Denver loss to Philly scenario.
    4. The common games do not count because we need to play at least four common opponents. With Baltimore we do that. With Denver we don't.
    5. Strength of victory is where we'll be.

    Now here's an interesting question. When approximating percentages do teams that a team has beaten twice count twice? A victory against K.C. is double for Denver correct? If that's the case we blow these guys out of the water for their cupcake wins against Cleveland, Oakland, and Kansas City.
     
  19. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    From the scenarios I have run.....3 Dolphins Wins get us in with help: (any of these work to get us in)

    1 NE loss
    1 BAL loss
    2 DEN loses
    3 CIN loses
     
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  20. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    BigDogsHunt you've posted the same thing again and again but I think you're incorrect because it's not just common games with Baltimore. That's only in a two-way tie. It's a three-way tie and we do not have enough games in common with Denver for that to apply. We've both played New England, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. Yes they have four games in that category but we have only three.
     
  21. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    It has nothing to do with common game for last WC spot and a loss would drop any currently 7-6 from a tie so they would exit the tie-breaker of ending 10-6.

    If 3 teams are not tied at 10-6 (and loss by BAL would prevent them from achieving 10-6 they exit) it goes back to 2 team tie breaker rules.

    Lots of scenarios exist...but loses by teams we are currently tied at 7-6 with prevent them from ending 10-6.

    if it 3 teams then other factors come in...if its 2 teams then h2h would come in.

    Personally, I want NE to lose and we get AFCE!!!!!!

    P.S. I am running the scenarios from the site.....seems to be legit with what I am saying as I adust wins or loses with Phins, DEN, BAL, CIN and NE as the most logical teams shufflling in and out of scenarios of last WC spot (or AFCE).
     
  22. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    It has all to do with common games, that's step four of the multi-team tiebreaker. I want the AFCE because I want Ricky to ***** slap Ray Lewis for last year.
     
  23. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    if more than 3 teams tied at 10-6 (presuming Phins win out) for LAST WC spot then common games come in. But I dont find 3 teams tied at 10-6...I find us winning AFCE at 10-6 if NE falls to 10-6; or I find us tied with only one other team would puts it H2H and not common.

    If DEN has 5th WC spot what 3 teams do you have ending 10-6???

    Remember, if NE finishes 10-6 we win AFCE so who are the other 2 teams (not including NE or MIA) you get to 10-6 to use 3 team tie-breaker.

    Again, if the scenario site is screwing up, I am not aware, but picking wins/loses for all the teams similar to us, put us in with one of the 4 scenarios I listed above.

    P.S. late, going to bed. Rooting hard for Miami to get in!!!!
     
  24. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Wait wait wait. If Denver, Miami, and Baltimore are all tied at the end of the year it's a three-way tie isn't it? No team is magically awarded the 5 spot. Plus that site no matter what I did didn't seem to change strength of schedule for other teams.

    It has to be a three-way tie to determine the winner leaving it at strength of victory.
     
  25. Forces904

    Forces904 New Member

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    Neither Miami nor Jacksonville will go 10-6. Too tough of schedules. Baltimore also has a schedule full of potential spoilers. None of these teams have a schedule against the Browns, Lions, and Rams left.

    Right now Jacksonville is in control. A loss by any of these teams seriously hurts their chances, but not by a WHOLE lot, especially Jacksonville since all they have to do is match Miami and Baltimore instead of be ahead of them.

    Of the 3, Jacksonville has the easiest schedule remaining, contrary to popular belief. Indy has said they'll more than likely rest their starters after clinching the AFC conference, and Cleveland is Cleveland.
     
  26. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Suit yourself. Jacksonville has the easiest schedule?
     
  27. Forces904

    Forces904 New Member

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    Indy's 2nd string
    NE who hasn't been all that impressive as of late
    Cleveland?

    vs

    Tenn
    Hou
    Pitt

    Yeah, I'd much rather have our schedule.
     
  28. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Indy hasn't officially declared its second-string. NE will beat Jacksonville at home and they'll be done after that.

    Our schedule is tough, especially this game against Tennessee.
     
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  29. dolphin4life

    dolphin4life New Member

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    I think what happens here is
    BAL is 3-2 in common games.They beat PITT twice, SD. loss to NE,INDY
    DEN 2-3 in common games.They beat NE,SD. loss to PITT,SD,INDY.
    MIA 2-3 in common games.They beat NE, PITT. loss to NE,SD,INDY.

    That would make Baltinore the 5th seed.
    For the 6th spot i beleive Denver would win on strenghth of victory.
    They have beaten CINCY, DALLAS, NEW ENGLAND, SAN DIEGO, GIANTS.
     
  30. Forces904

    Forces904 New Member

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    Ok, yes, believe that if you wish. Even say they don't rest their starters, this game isn't a pushover anyways.

    Jacksonville has always played Indy close. Hell, even the game earlier this season came down to a missed XP.
     
  31. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    They've also beaten terrible terrible garbage teams so that's not cut and dry quite yet as far as records go.

    I don't expect to have this problem however if we go 10-6. It's a very very tough scenario to see it happening. New England or Baltimore will lose one. If not then we still have strength of victory possibility.
     
  32. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    The mother of all travesty will be the AFC West filling two playoff spots. While some fin fans are busy psycho-analyzing Dolphins win record I would suggest they consider this.......

    Denver may enter the playoffs with a schedule filled with fluff.

    Raiders (2)
    Chiefs (2)
    Browns


    Those 5 games were laughers when they were put on the schedule. They were laughers on the field. I would have included the Redskins in the laugher schedule but somehow the Broncos managed to lose that one.
     
  33. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    Jax will lose their next two games. They are out......

    Denver will win 2 of the next 3. They are in......

    The Jets will lose 2 of the next 3. They are out.........

    We will not catch the Patriots for the division. Their schedule is too soft. They are in.....

    I believe our fate will be determined by the Ravens and Dolphins results in the last three games.
     
  34. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    The Pats can easily lose this coming week and week 17 in Houston.
     
  35. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    To tell you the truth. I have more faith in that scenario than us winning out.

    You mention Houston. We have them on schedule too.

    You mention Buffalo for the surprise factor. I'll mention the Steelers for a surprise factor.

    The games still have to be played. So it's all congecture. The thing that I tried to do is look at what is likely to happen. The only thing I came up with is Phins/Ravens.
     
  36. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Beating Tennessee is going to be extremely difficult.
     
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  37. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    It depends on if Young can make it through the game. Even injured he's still a threat on the field to run.

    The season has been a bear of a schedule just as was predicted.
     
  38. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I'd rather have Young than Collins. Our defense plays best when it has to cover a shorter area. Collins arm and deep accuracy could severely hurt us. With two large, agile safeties splitting the field in run defense we can slow down Johnson and Young. Garrard couldn't run on us all day and he's a far greater threat to pass than Young.

    One possibility could be a heavy blitz of five on each down with a spy with an active front. Dictate the game to Tennessee by playing Starks, Soliai, Langford, Taylor, and Porter going after Young with Crowder in coverage, Bell and Wilson essentially the other two LBs. Tennessee goes three WR at times but they're not so capable that Bell can't cover one of them. I haven't really seen a team run blitz Chris Johnson too heavily yet.
     
  39. HoustonTexan80

    HoustonTexan80 New Member

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    Hate to break it to you guys but I do not think your going to win out. You guys have a much bigger shot at it than the Texans but idk. I'm not saying it is not possible. Why would you guys even want to go to the playoffs this year? Ronnie Brown is hurt and Ricky Williams is not going to lead this team lets be real. Chad Henne is not Tom Brady either.
     
  40. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    I'm curious to see if Vince can make the intermediate pass.

    Thanks HoustonTexans80 for your strange defeatist logic. You win each game and see if you can get into the playoffs, then you worry about it. To do that we have to beat your team. That in and of itself is something I want terribly.
     

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