Fins Playoff Chances...Who needs to lose this week?

"If" the Ravens defeat the steelers, then we are Jags and Texans fans, if they both beat the Pats, and we win both games, we are AFC East Champions.

Otherwise, the Broncos are the team we should then be cheering against.

 

Denver or Baltimore have to lose one and we have to win out, I think Jags have to lose one more also...can't remember for sure although watching the Chargers beat on the Titans doesn't really inspire alot of confidence in us winning out, I think it's going to be a pretty amazing feat if we do.

 

That is something I did not know, I was under the impression that losing to the Eagles wouldn 't matter because it was an out of conference game, it turns out that it matters a great deal, if they lose, even if the Ravens win we have the #6 WC slot.

That is assuming we win the next two games.

 

That's great news. So, we're all eagles fans this weekend.

 

We're all supporting Keystone this weekend.

E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES EAGLES EAGLES!

And Here we Go Steelers, Here we Go!

Then the Jax-NE game means ALOT less, if they (Ravens/Broncos) both drop one rather than one of them.

And if Jax wins, then, well, we have a win and in situation (With the possibility of remaining the REMAINING AND DEFENDING AFC EAST CHAMPIONS)

 

Are people sure we have strength of victory over the Broncos? It's close but I thought they were leading us? W/e, keep cheering for the teams we beat to win like panthers and bucs.

 

I'd think so D1B, Chargers, Saints, Colts are all 11+ win teams.

Eh, if we do not win on Sunday, it won't matter, JP better get some nappy time and not go out clubbing and maybe Teddy Ginn should watch Scarface like 20 hours straight.

 

I dont know what that guy is talking about but we dont win on strength of victory on the Denver Broncos. Here are the teams that the Broncos have beaten and what their records will be at the end of the season
Cincy will end up with 11 wins
SD will end up with 13 wins
NE at least 10 wins
Dallas 10 wins
NYG 9 wins
We win strength of victory on Baltimore easily. Our best way into the playoffs is Let NE beat JAGS this week and hope PITT beats the RAVENS, then we win our last 2 games and were in.

 

More Dolphins headlines
By Brian Biggane

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Updated: 10:50 p.m. Friday, Dec. 25, 2009



The Dolphins' most direct route to the post-season would be repeating as AFC East champions. While they trail New England (9-5) by two games, if Miami were to win its two games and New England lose its two, both would finish at 9-7 and Miami would win because of a better conference record (7-5 to 6-6).

Miami's last two games are at home against Houston and Pittsburgh. New England hosts Jacksonville and faces Houston on the road.

The wild-card route is considerably trickier insofar as it currently involves eight teams competing for two spots. One plus for the Dolphins is that of the five other teams at 7-7, they play two (Houston and Pittsburgh) and can knock them out by winning.

Running down the other wild-card contenders from the Dolphins' perspective, and stipulating that Miami must win its next two to have a chance:

Baltimore (8-6)

Must lose at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Otherwise, even if the Ravens lose their Jan. 3 finale at Oakland to finish 9-7, they beat Miami on the fourth tiebreaker, record against common opponents.

If Baltimore loses Sunday but wins its finale, Miami would win the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory, which involves the records of the teams both defeated.

Denver (8-6)

The Broncos remain in the driver's seat despite their stunning 20-19 home loss to Oakland on Sunday and the fact that they must travel to Philadelphia this week. In a breakdown of possible playoff scenarios compiled by Yahoo.com, Denver qualifies under all 10 criteria given. (Baltimore qualifies in eight, Miami and Pittsburgh one each.)

If the Broncos lose to the Eagles and win their home finale against Kansas City, then they and Miami would both have 7-5 conference records and Miami would win on strength of victories.

If they lose to the Chiefs, Miami would beat them on better conference record.

Jacksonville (7-7)

Miami would win a two-team tiebreaker because of its win over the Jaguars. If three or more teams tied, the Jaguars would get in via their superior conference record (8-4 to 7-5).

New York Jets (7-7)

Miami has beaten the Jets twice and thus wins a head-to-head tie. And only the second-place team in each division is eligible to win a wild card; if both teams win out, that would be the Dolphins.

Tennessee (7-7)

Sunday's loss in Nashville means the Dolphins lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Titans. But if three or more teams finish tied, which seems likely, Miami would advance because of a better record against common opponents (7-3 to 4-6).

 

Saw it on NFL Network too, if Denver loses too Philly we can get in on SOV or if Denver beats Philly and loses to KC we can get in on Conference record. I assume it's right since it's two different sources but...famous last words

 

Ya i read the article but i think he is wrong. I beleive Miami wins the tie breaker with Denver if they both finish 9-7 is if Denver beats Philly and lose to KC. That way Miami would have a conference record of 7-5 and Denver will have a record of 6-6.
Strength of victory If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

 

Houston, Ravens, Jags and Broncos

 

B roncos:

Cinci 9
Cleveland 3
Oakland 5
Dallas 9
NE 9
SD 12
KC 3
Washington 4

54 wins

Dolphins

Bills 5
Jets 7
Bucs 2
Panthers 6
Jets 7
Patriots 9
Jags 7

43 total wins

The NFL can get pretty arcane, and the only thing that we know for certain is after this weekend the wildcard picture will be much clearer

We must win on Sunday to have a shot to begin with, and the Steelers/Ravens and Jags/Pats will clear a whole bunch of stuff up.

 

I hope they re right then can someone explain to me how they get in on Strength of Victory

 

Thats what im saying look at the records. How does Miami win on Strength of Victory

 

I think there is some Conference Win metric that would almost tie us with the Broncos, I "think" it would be 41-40, but that would only mean that the Broncos would have to lose to KC.

Eh, imho people should hold their water until 4:30 pm on Sunday Afternoon, all this other stuff boils down to is a lot of hot air.

 

It all made sense til I read this thread They just said it again on NFL Network different segment but this time they said Miami needs Jaguars to lose and either Baltimore to lose to Pitt or Denver to lose to Philly.

Im confused...

 

You can't just do total wins, cause they have won one more game than we have. If we were tied it would make sense, which is why it's the tiebreaker. If you really want to figure this out, you'd have to project all the outcomes to the end of the season, including projecting us as tied with Denver. I agree though, best just to wait a couple days.

 

I understand that but if we win our last 2 games say we we beat houston who will probably finish with 7 wins and pitt end up with 7 wins if they lost to the Ravens that would just give us 14 wins. Denver beats KC they get en extra 5 wins. Also Padre31 has Denver beating Washington which who they havent played, they played the Giants who have 7 wins at the moment.

 

i wouldnt even worry about this until like 7pm, Sunday. See what the day has brought, then speculate.

 

This is what I was trying repeatedly in that stupid calculator and it wouldn't come out. I'm almost sure that Miami has strength-of-victory against the Broncos, but wait there's another key factor do they include a win against a repeat opponent twice.

So in essence? We're Jets fans, HEUftgldsjgkl'sd, I just threw up... For the next two games? Or we are merely not fans of the team the Jets play the remaining two weeks.

This changes everything because Philly will beat Denver this weekend no doubt. If they do, well it's in all honesty a win-and we're in scenario for week 16 and week 17.

 

This is going to take some extended calculations, but I'm going to go for it.

Oakland (10 points)
SD (13)
Kansas City (3)
Cleveland (4)
Cinncy (10)
NYG (9)
Dallas (11)
NE (10, they'll rest up in Houston)

70 points or so.

Miami only has

Jacksonville (8)
Houston (8)
N.E. (10)
TB (2)
Carolina (6)
N.Y. Jets (16 combined most likely)
Buffalo (5)
Pittsburgh (7)

62 wins in all likeliness. Even if the Jets win out and add two more it'll take quite a bit of play from the rest of these teams to even it. If I'm wrong please tell me.

 

So it looks like we're hosed on strength of victory then?

 

Denver only beat the Raiders once, so that would be at 5 instead of 10. Add another 3 for them beating KC...so that would be 68. Say the Jets win against Cincy somehow, we'd gain 2 and they wouldn't gain anything...Same with Carolina against the Giants. It might end up pretty close

Things will be a lot clearer after this weekend!

 

You're correct, it's actually 68 or so to 62. I included the Jets win however so we're still six apart. If the Jets beat Indy however it'll be 64. Carolina winning against the Giants and at home against New Orleans would bring it to 66 for us versus 67 for them. Buffalo actually winning a game ties it. Once it's a tie we win on strength of schedule because of the bastard schedule we played.

What a headache. Looks it's cheering for Baltimore to lose against the Steelers then.

 

I just can't see us winning the Division at this time so I'm more concerned with us getting a WC spot.
My theory is the Pats sshould win both their remaining games,and that's ok.If they take the Jags down a notch we won't have to worry about 3 way ties,meaning the Jags would win that tie breaker.
Eagles winning is important and it would be nice to have Pitt win also....

 

http://www.fansided.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=4865&p=25071#p25071

Here's the run down I did for another forum. It is detailed but cannot copy and paste. NOT gonna type it again.

Before the SD game, Denver had 58 point (opponents wins they beat). Baltimore had 44, and we had 43.

I do not see any way we can beat out Denver in strength of victory. Great chance if Balt loses to Pitt. Also, Jags must lose one.

 

the steelers will win

remember the last matchup where DENNIS DIXON started for the Steelers at Ravens and the game went into OT.

 

Also, to see Rex cry when they are out of the playoffs, having the same record as us.

 

It's not that far apart, I mean the Steelers and Texans could be worth 15 to us and then it's just a matter of who you beat beating other teams. If the Jets beat Indy we have a chance in this category.

The total is more likely Denver: 61 right now compared to our projected (hopeful): 58. So after that it's a matter of whose teams win, etc...

That win against Indy again coming back to haunt us.

 

thats what i was saying all along that we cant beat Denver on strength of victory. Nfl network was saying last night that all we need is JAGS to lose to NE, and RAVENS to lose to PITT or BRONCOS to lose to philly.

 

So what is the final verdict people?- Patriots or Jaguars?? On the one hand if the Patriots beat the Jaguars that takes them out of our way assuming we beat Houston. And of course if Pitt wins then the game next week will be for the final playoff spot.

If the Patriots lose then we have to cheer for them to lose to the Texans, and if we beat the texans they wont be playing for anything b/c they'll be eliminated, and their main players like Andre and Schaub won't be playing for jobs or anything so the only motivation would be spoiler. If they beat Houston then we have to cheer for the Browns to beat the Jaguars. They'll be playing for jobs...but it's the Browns, you can never trust them and the Jags will be hungry for a playoff spot. OR the Cheifs to beat the Broncos. Again, the Broncos arent playing great but the Chiefs are much worse.
This better be a good Christmas for dolfans tomorrow.

 

Pittsburgh is going to bring it on Baltimore. Easy games at home followed by a difficult rivalry road game tend to be major surprises. If Pittsburgh can hit early they'll have a great shot. The way Ben is throwing they have a great chance. G.B. is a slightly better team than Baltimore so that also goes into the equation.

 

I am not speculating. Right now (not including SD's win), Denver is at 58, Balt at 44, and our Phins at 43. Chances are that Denver's wins (Cinci, Dal, NE, SD, and Giants) are gonna win more thn our wins (Jets, Buff, NE, and Car).

I like the chances vs the Ravens much better.

 

Denver is the harder of the two teams now in the drivers seat to figure out.

Baltimore looses to Pitt and we win out we are in.

 

Overcoming Denver's SOV would be highly unlikely. I still wat them to lose. The way they played this year, VG or suck, they could lose their final game.

 

Our odds would be much better with a Pat's win.