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Draft Tek 12/30 Mock Draft (4 Rounds)

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Frayser, Jan 1, 2010.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The problem is there's only one Patrick Willis in the NFL.

    That's sort of like saying that Phil Rivers is overrated because he's not Peyton Manning.
     
  2. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Yeah, too bad we never had a chance at Willis.....oh wait. :pity:
     
  3. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    Dansby would be a huge upgrade, regardless of whether he is overrated.
     
  4. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    We could practically bring somebody in out of the stands to be an improvement over A-dell IMO.
    -
    That being said, I have seen LOTS of Carlos Dansby, and while he's not Brian Urlacher or Pat Willis, he would indeed be a HUGE upgrade. -
    Of course, he shouldn't expect to get paid what Urlacher and eventually Willis will.
     
  5. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's kind of annoying to think about how we passed up on the best linebacker in the league or the best cornerback in the league for TGJ.
     
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  6. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think that is really applicable to what I'm saying here.

    Fujita was a 3-4 OLB in Dallas. They needed a starting OLB at the time, but instead chose to let him go rather than giving him a whack at the position. Hence, I'm saying it is unlikely he is signed here to play ILB.
     
  7. Bjorn

    Bjorn Season Ticket Holder

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    So tell me I'm on cloud nine, but is there any chance we get Dez at say #13 and then trade into the first to say #25 and land Jermaine Gresham. I know you guys have done alot more studying on the team than I have and wonder what the likelihood is of Ireland trading back into the first. That would be my dream scenario.
     
  8. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I really doubt it. Trading back into the first has proven to be expensive the last few years. I think draft picks are overvalued, but I really dont feel like giving up next years first and others to get him.
     
  9. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Agreed draft picks tend to be overvalued for the level of impact player you receive, etc...

    On the other hand I do feel that there will be one LB added in free agency, probably at ILB. Dansby is target #1. They will offer him 8m a year easily and I think he'll be here. Then comes Ryan Pickett perhaps. A TE may be added as well.

    Dez Bryant is the guy at WR. With no CBA in place he is the only possible #1 available outside of Antonio Bryant. For all the talk about a rookie not being good enough at WR, it's also true at ILB as CK mentioned.

    It's either Antonio Bryant-Brandon Spikes or Karlos Dansby-Dez Bryant. I prefer option #2.
     
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  10. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    I'm not sure a TE is worth trading back into the 1st round. Gresham is not a game-changer at his position. If we were going to throw away some picks to move back into the first, I would want it to be for a guy like Terrence Cody. Now, if we were to go defense with our first pick (like Rolando McClain), I could see us trading up in the 2nd or back into the 1st to grab a guy like Mardy Gilyard.

    I've thought the same thing . . . only my choice would be McClain/ABryant vs. Dansby/DBryant. There are a number of reasons why I prefer the first choice. I think McClain is much more of a safe pick and could contribute from day one. I also think that our offense would be better than fine adding Bryant (and a quality TE) to our current crop of receivers. Perhaps most importantly, I see next year as the year to go out and grab a receiver in the draft. There's really only one guy in this draft that screams #1 WR (Dez Bryant). Next year, we could see Jonathan Baldwin, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and others.
     
  11. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I dont know if Ireland or Parcells have ever traded up in a round let alone 1st..hahahahaa.
     
  12. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Dez Bryant isn't the only possible #1, just the most likely one. Brandon LaFell and Arrellious Benn both have the size and skills to be a #1, though I have more faith in LaFell (whether that faith is unfair or not, I don't know). If Dezmon Briscoe could put it all together, he has the skills to be a #1 as well. If Hines Ward was ever a #1, then Golden Tate definitely can be one as well. Mike Williams also has the talent to be a #1.
     
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  13. Roman529

    Roman529 Senior Member

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    Hell Yeah Dez Bryant will be looking nice in a Phin's uniform. :up:
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Whoa. What did you just do there, linking to a certain time index. Does that work??? Man. I had no idea you could do that. How does it work? Does #at=122 stand for 122 seconds? Because it seemed to start at 2:00 mark which would be 120 seconds. Does it automatically bump you 2 seconds behind your time index?

    This would be highly appropriate for Simon's look at McClain and Spikes.
     
  15. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    :lol:, CK is a YOUTUBE nerd!!!!!!:hi5:

    P.S. I dont know how he did it, but its cool.
     
  16. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I just stopped at a specific time and then posted it. :up:
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yeah but where'd you copy the link from?
     
  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    When you run a website which has video as one of its main draws you're forced to be a YouTube nerd.
     
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  19. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    The address box that's at the top of the web browser.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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  21. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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  22. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Is it just me or did he look like an afterthought in the majority of those plays? There were a couple where he turns the play back to another defender but for the most part he didnt look all that impressive to my untalented, evaluating eyes
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    OK well I can't figure out how to embed the YouTube video with it set to skip to a certain time index. But, it does have the feature where if you add a #at=??? to it, it will skip forward to time index ???.

    That's good to know. For the Spikes/McClain video what we'd have to consider doing is deleting all of the embedded videos and instead just providing a YouTube link which will open a new window for a YouTube video, and it would open to the time index we ask it to. Only issue there is the video itself can be choppy when you do that because it seems to start playing before it streams ahead.

    There are pluses and minuses to it. I'm open to feedback.
     
  24. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    Everything worked fine for me. Video was not choppy at all on my browser.

    I don't know about the music though. I know it's a test, and it looked good, really well done and everything. :up:

    Can we use the same set of video and imbed multiple times? i.e. the same 10:00 video used at various points in the article to highlight different things by indexing different times?

    Or, do we need a new set of videos each time?
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Spikes an afterthought?

    Well this is just my opinion but I think he stirs the drink in that defense. He has a lot of responsibility because that defense is full of freelancers and guys who make plays on the ball when they probably shouldn't...whereas McClain's defense is full of disciplined players who funnel the ball to Rolondo.

    I'll give you an example. Time index 4:15. This is a very similar play to an earlier one in the game that Alabama had success with, and really it's just a schematic win on the drawing board because when the Florida defense lines up the way they did, which is a defensive coordinator responsibility, then the sweep to the weak side has a hat on a hat advantage. Every defender to the play side has a blocker accounting for him. The nearest truly free defender (Ahmad Black) started off in the alignment so far to the back side of the play that there's really no way he could get in on it.

    When you're facing something like this, you have guys that are getting blocked right off the snap and then you have a puller that will take out the first free defender that shows up to the ball, which in this case is Spikes. Since, schematically, you're already behind the 8-ball, you need to rely on guys beating their blocks. I mean hell, you've got 6 separate man-on-man blocks that need to take place for the play to work...your defense should be able to either win one of those right at the point of attack, or at least use the 3 or 4 seconds that it takes for the play to develop to work your way off a block and affect the ball carrier.

    Spikes is initially free on the play because the man that will block him is the pulling Vlachos, who will meet him on the sidelines. As the initial free man on the play he's got to guard a lot of gaps, though. First thing he has to do is threaten the cutback gap. Vlachos may be booking it for the sideline with his 300 pound frame not ready to turn on a dime but behind him is a Heisman winning runner that can choose any hole that looks open. What I'm saying is if Spikes heads straight to the sideline at the initial recognition of the play, to try and beat Vlachos and Ingram to the spot they're going, he'll find Vlachos there but he probably won't find Ingram, because Ingram will have cutback and run up an earlier hole, probably for a touchdown defending on how well the other man-on-man blocks have panned out (which in this case was poor for Alabama, but we'll talk about that in a second).

    So Spikes has to threaten the inside cutback, while continuing to flow to the outside where the play is designed to go.

    He has some decisions to make. Should he freelance and cut into the backfield, hoping to bypass Vlachos and bring down Ingram? I think Spikes thought about it, but that's a tough call to make. Tackling a Heisman winner Mark Ingram on the move is tough enough without having to worry about a free-running 300 pounder coming back and completely neutralizing you out of the play by knocking you to the ground. A mistake there costs you a touchdown, potentially. The other thing is the developing block of Drew Davis on Justin Trattou, which is within Spikes' cone of vision, has provided an angle obstacle on the ability to knife into the backfield.

    What I like about Spikes is that he was decisive on his course of action. At 4:21 in the video, as he orients more toward the sideline, at the 34 yard line just inside of the numbers, he's decided his course of action and is running full steam to execution. His job is to get to the outside and plug the hole, neutralizing Vlachos and keeping himself threatening the play, while forcing Ingram to the interior where guys like DE Justin Trattou, LB Ryan Stamper and LB Brandon Hicks have had a full 4 seconds to get off their blocks and threaten the play (whereas if Spikes is going to bring down the ball he would have 0 seconds to defeat the Vlachos block and take down Ingram, because he'd have to do it simultaneously).

    He finishes the play off and in the end, the run only gained 2 yards. Why? Because the blocks didn't develop, unlike the first go-around. Justin Trattou pushed Drew Davis deep into the backfield, which forced a wider angle on Ingram's track to the outside. He also did a superb job getting off the block period, and threatening the ball. The cut block on LB Ryan Stamper never took hold at all, Stamper did a good job beating it right as it was forming.

    The real mistake on the play by Spikes was one that I feel he makes every now and then, which is to focus so hard on neutralizing his block that he momentarily takes his eyes off the ball. He neutralized Vlachos very well, nearly knocking him to the ground, and had Ingram run by him, he was still in Mark's way plus he would have been able to give chase and limit the play's gain in a worst case scenario. But, by taking his eyes momentarily off the ball, that could have been all the time a speedster like Chris Johnson would need to hit the races.

    This is one thing I like about Brandon Spikes. He seems to understand the defense and have very quick instincts for what to do within the defensive system, how the coaches have coached him to play. And yet, playing within the system, shutting down gaps for his teammates to make plays, etc...he's made as many plays as Rolondo McClain.

    Because in the end, look at the statistics. Rolondo McClain averages SLIGHTLY higher tackles per game than Brandon Spikes...but Brandon Spikes has him on a per game basis in most big play categories.

    To me this means shows me that Brandon Spikes plays well within a system, plays disciplined ball, but also has the ability to know when the freelance is appropriate and when to make that big play.
     
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  26. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    Well like i said, I in no way consider myself an expert in breaking down film ... I watched the plays and I saw a guy that redirected a play back towards other defenders or made solo tackle twice of each ... the rest of the time he seemed to allow the blocker to get up on him, joined in as the player was being tackled or ran himself out of the play like at the :45 mark where he let the blocker get to him and chose to dodge himself completely out of the play ... maybe I am too spoiled by Zach Thomas and his ability to decipher a play & and attack more quickly then most ... and then again, that Bama game was not one of the Gator's best games to view either but #73 seemed to have his number on quite a few plays
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Here is what I'm talking about on the other play...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5voTSl9uEI#at=328

    This is an example of where I disagree with Boomer on the analysis of the play. He believes that Spikes took an improper angle.

    As you watch the play, keep in mind what I said. Schematically, this is hat-on-hat at it's finest. If all of your blockers man up properly, the runningback doesn't even have a single defender he needs to make miss. Isn't that what the Wildcat is about? Dishing the defense an extra gap, a numbers disadvantage? Saban's team found a way to accomplish that on this play while keeping Greg McElroy under Center. Go figure, Saban's a good coach, and if there is any God then he'll get an excruciating case of herpes and live the rest of his life feeling like half a man.

    So anyway this time on this play you see much different quality of blocking. The closest truly "free" defender (SS Ahmad Black) is still pretty far away from where the play is going and at too big a disadvantage to get involved unless his name was Bob Sanders.

    Remember the other play? Remember how DE Justin Trattou was handing RT Drew Davis his lunch? Remember how the cut block on LB Ryan Stamper never materialized?

    This one they block a little differently, but the principles are mostly the same. A tight end takes on Jermaine Cunningham off the snap. Cunningham is so far away from the play side the TE doesn't need to keep him blocked that long and he doesn't. Drew Davis takes on DT Terron Sanders and wins, delaying him far too long to be a threat. Vlachos is pulling, once again. This time instead of having a guy fire out and try to cut block LB Ryan Stamper, RG Barrett Jones releases out and AT FIRST he wants to seal LB Brandon Spikes. That turns out to be a little over ambitious and so he seals LB Ryan Stamper out of the play very nicely.

    So, you've got the backside ILB blocked out, unlike the iteration we talked about above where Stamper had evaded a cut block and was free to pursue. On the play side you have LG Mike Johnson blocking and walling off DT Lawrence Marsh very nicely. You have a TE Michael Williams totally dominating LB Brandon Hicks on the play side, neutralizing him. And then you have LT James Carpenter working on DE Jaye Howard, and he is just dominating him.

    Remember what I said before, the good news is the way this play has been drawn up the offense has a hat-on-hat for everyone and the RB wouldn't even have to beat anyone in order to get a score...until he gets down field a bit and the FS Major Wright can catch up to him. Well, the bad news is you need your blockers to dominate six man-on-man blocks.

    1. TE Michael Johnson vs LB Brandon Hicks - Bama Win
    2. LT James Carpenter vs DE Jaye Howard - Bama Win
    3. LG Mike Johnson vs DT Lawrence Marsh - Bama Win
    4. RG Barrett Jones vs LB Ryan Stamper - Bama Win
    5. RT Drew Davis vs. DT Terron Sanders - Bama Win
    6. C Will Vlachos vs LB Bradon Spikes - ???

    At this stage, Spikes has the same exercise ahead of him as outlined above. His instant recognition assured him of not being caught by a slightly over-zealous Barrett Jones at the start of the play, but here is where Boomer says that he took a bad angle, by cutting so far inward to the line of scrimmage. I disagree. Florida's at a numbers disadvantage. There is now an extra gap to defend. Spikes has to threaten both gaps and try and delay the play until one of his guys can get off a block, or until he has the angle to make the play, or until he can defeat his block and make the play.

    He steps into the cutback lane before continuing his chase to the sidelines to assure that Ingram can't cut back. If he didn't, Ingram's off to the races. I don't think that's an improper angle.

    At this point however, unfortunately Vlachos has locked on and is targeting Spikes. Spikes takes up Vlachos and does what Brandon Hicks should have been doing, which is set the edge of the defense and force the ball inside to more help. Spikes does this but there's no help anywhere because everyone has lost their individual matchups.

    That's why this particular play gained 14 where the other one gained 2. In the other play, Trattou and Stamper had won their blocking matchups, and so when Spikes set the edge for them, they were able to get Ingram down for a 2 yard gain.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I disagree. You have to look at things from a gap control perspective. On the play you're talking about, the RDE has the gap on the outside of LT James Carpenter's shoulder.

    This is how you have to see things. You can count the gaps at the start of the play by pausing before the play goes off. Try from the outside in.

    1. You have Joe Haden on the very outside, with the gap outside the H-Back's shoulder.
    2. You have LB Ryan Stamper that has the gap inside the H-Back's shoulder, outside the TE's shoulder.
    3. The RDE has the gap on the outside of LT James Carpenter, and the inside of the TE.
    4. The RDT has the gap on the outside of LG Mike Johnson and inside of LT James Carpenter.
    5. This means that Spikes has the gap on the left shoulder of C Will Vlachos and to the inside of LG Mike Johnson.

    Now watch the play. Who controls their gaps and who does not?

    1. Joe Haden has the outside. He's greeted by the TE who has released out to him.

    2. Ryan Stamper has attacked the H-Back straight on, remember he has responsibility for the gap on the inside of the H-Back's shoulder. He's not winning this battle. He's not winning this battle at all, or controlling his gap.

    3. The RDE initially attacked the outside shoulder of LT James Carpenter as he should, but whether it's because he's misreading the action or what, he decides to cross over to his left shoulder and therefore loses control of the gap that is his responsibility.

    4. When Brandon Spikes pulls an olay on Will Vlachos, it's because doing so cost him barely anything in terms of time, and did not threaten his gap.

    In the end what you have is an opening for Mark Ingram that is literally two gaps wide. That is WAAAAY too much freedom for the Heisman winner, considering Will Vlachos was given free access off the snap to get out and try and take the MLB Brandon Spikes out of the play (and really IMO failed to do so).

    You lose gap control in two gaps and you allow a Center a free release onto your MLB, and then you blame the MLB for not being able to cross that far that fast against a Heisman winner?

    Not seeing it.

    BTW, I realize it is possible for me to have mistaken the gap responsibilities. There are two possibilities. Either it is as I've outlined, and the RDE and Ryan Stamper were the main culprits that lost gap control, or it is Stamper and Haden that screwed up more. I believe it is the way I set it up and that Bama just won thier matchups.
     
  29. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

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    I'll defer to you and Boomer on that difference of opinion ... I really don't feel qualified to argue it ... :thumbup1:
     
  30. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    CK, what do you think the chance is Spikes could conceivably fall to us in the second round? I think most pundits had Malauga going higher than he eventually did. Could Spikes see enough of a fall to be there in round 2? Getting Dez Bryant and Brandon Spikes in 1-2 would be a major homerun.
     
  31. put-me-in-coach

    put-me-in-coach Season Ticket Holder

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    CK, check this out. I pm'd you about this but I thought I'd throw this video together to show you what I'm talking about. If you go to the video and look in the play bar you will see dots that if you scroll on it tells you what highlight it is. May be good for what your doing.

    http://www.viddler.com/explore/AverageJyo/videos/46/

    I just put a few tag's on the video but I think you get the idea.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't see Spikes falling that low. One reason Maualuga fell that low is because folks wondered if he was a two down linebacker, because the fact of the matter is he was the guy that came out on that USC defense on certain downs. Spikes is not threatening to be a two down guy. Also nobody knew if they could trust Maualuga's immaturity given the stories about having other players babysit him, etc. Spikes is the unquestioned leader of the defense. Nobody would babysit Brandon Spikes. Brandon Spikes might babysit others.

    If he does fall it's a no-brainer. You take him. Even if you've gone out and grabbed a DeMeco Ryans to pair with Channing Crowder. Bottom line is Spikes has versatility on his side, you can get him on the field in situations...like we did with Reggie Torbor.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Looks interesting. I'll try and explore it more and see if it will be appropriate. Thanks.
     
  34. put-me-in-coach

    put-me-in-coach Season Ticket Holder

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    No prob. I compressed it at low quality for speed so the video looks crappy but you can fix that if interested.
     
  35. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Assuming we do get a Dansby/Ryans in FA - could Spikes play OLB in a 3-4? Ive heard hes got a decent passrush, and hes also solid in coverage and attacking the run. A possibility, or would he just be playing way to far out of position?
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't think I see Spikes as a 3-4 OLB. He's effective in pass rush but that's on a different scale from what you want to see in a 3-4 OLB. He took Andre Smith to school and he looks good pass rushing other tackles but he doesn't look like a serious mismatch doing it.
     
  37. Frayser

    Frayser Barstool Philosopher

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    Draft Tek updated its mock on 1/6. Here are our new picks:

    #12 - Rolando McClain (ILB, Bama)
    #42 - Jeremy Williams (WR, Tulane)
    #74 - Roddrick Muckelroy (OLB, Texas)
    #107 - Garrett Graham (TE, Wisconsin)

    Dez Bryant goes one pick before us to Jacksonville.
     
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