I took a look at the #1 WR's for the playoff teams left. There is no rhyme nor reason as how to acquire your top WR. Zona took Fitz with a high pick. He is GREAT but, will be home for the SB. Indy took Wayne at #30. He was not the best WR on his Cane's team but, has been great. NO has Colston, a late round pick. Balt has Mason, a 13 year vet. SD has Jackson, who did not develop until year 4. Jets have Cotchery, not Edwards who they paid a lot for. Minne has Rice, who last year caught 15 passes. Dallas has Austin, not Williams, who did nothing for 3 years, and we could have had him for a 2nd round pick in the off season. My point is that no one knows who will be the WR leading to the "Promised Land." Go figure.
I am not sure of the point you are trying to say here, are you saying guys like Edwards and Williams who were drafted early in the first round don't count as early draft picks because they now play for teams that didn't draft them ? I can agree you never know where the next top receiver will come from by draft, trade or free agency.
To me the idea is to draft players can CAN BECOME #1's. Like Mike Wallace or Louis Murphy but not ones like Pat Turner. I love Hartline who can be a great #2 for us (he should have been starting earlier) but only a small chance of becoming a #1 compared to almost no chance for Turner. I play the odds and I look for size (6 feet or over), speed (I know speed is not everything but DUH, it helps) and a couple of years of college experience (no one year wonders). We passed on 7 of the fastest WRs in last year draft and the two fastest TEs. All had decent rookie years (remember Mike Wallace scoring the long TD against us for the Steelers?). I would have taken Jared Cook (TE) and Louis Murphy over the two Pats. I thought TE and WR was a need and after taking our two rookie corners we had our pick of a lot of good players yet we took a undersized "Wildcat" QB and a one year wonder possession WR. It reminds me that we went 14-15 years without drafting early a good QB early (none since Dan Marino) and then wondered why we could never find one (mostly in trades or as FAs). If you do not try, you will never get. I do not count Cam Cameron's draft but when was the last year we drafted anyone that had the ability to be a #1 WR?
It seems to be our team's philosophy that we can find playmakers in places that the rest of the league can't. End result, we have added no playmakers since Parcells took over.
I see your point obviously it would be great to find the needle in the haystack, but I think if a guy like Bryant is there we should snatch him up. I think we need LB's badly even more than a guy who 'may' develop into a #1 but Im just that high on Dez Bryant.
Not true as Bess has been a playmaker for us sure he wasnt drafted which makes it even sweeter. I think our future is bright with Davis and Smith at times they were play makers. What about Hartline though he didn't get much playing time the guy was a play maker when called on. What about Jake Long is a guy on the offense line not a play maker ?
This is EXACTLY why I stand behind the notion that of ANY position on the team you need to "BUY" the Wideouts are the ones you BUY not draft.. Adjusting to the NFL is such a hit or miss for wideouts. Im not saying never try but use your top picks for SURE FIRE studs not risks of anykind. Your going to pay a top rookie big money as well so why not pay a guy who has 4 years expeience and KNOWS the NFL!?? BUY WIDEOUTS!!!
I think that's the point. If you look at Matt's list the common factor is the size of the players. I also think you could include some of the TEs as players who get used as #1 receivers. The key is getting that players that will be mismatches for the D. You can get mismatches with different attributes but size (or better size and speed) seems the easiest to get. I don't really look at where they were acquired b/c you could do that for every position. For example QB, where Romo was an UDFA and Farve was a FA pick up. IMO that doesn't mean you pass on the position early, but rather that if you don't have one, you look at every avenue to get one.
When I think playmaker, I think of DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, Chris Johnson, Josh Cribbs, Andre Johnson, Antonio Gates, etc. Among NFL fans (Miami excluded), you wouldn't find a single person who would name Davone Bess, Sean Smith, Vontae Davis, or Brian Hartline when asked to name playmakers within the AFC East. Ronnie Brown (and maybe Joey Porter and Jason Taylor) would be our only player mentioned; and Parcells would have never taken Ronnie at #2 overall. I know this is Ireland's team; but it's still Parcells' philosophy. We can't expect Bess to be Anquan Boldin. We can't expect Hartline to be Reggie Wayne. If you think they will ever turn in to that, then that's quite homerish. We need REAL playmakers. Players that turn a first down into a touchdown. Your chances of finding those players late in the draft are about as good as your chances of guessing what number I'm thinking of right now between 1 and 1,000. Which is about the odds of finding Donald Driver or Marques Colston in round 7. Let's say you draft 2 WRs late in the draft for 25 years in a row. That's 50 picks spent on late round WRs. I'll give you 50 picks to guess what number I'm thinking of between 1 and 1000. You have a 5% chance of picking the number I'm thinking of. That's a 5% chance of finding a playmaker with 25 years of late draft picks. Wouldn't it be foolish and arrogant to think you can build your team using this method?
I hear what everyone is saying and I am feeling it but damn its a lopsided crapshoot with first round WRs.. I bet its less than 50% have an impact and more like 20% to get true #1s...I look at detroit who spent 4 number one picks looking for a playmaker and all they got was a "maybe" with megatron. Even B Edwards who some consider a #1 kinda sucks.
Look at JJ's record on RBs. Look at Wanny's record with OL. You shouldn't use a bad FO's selections as reasoning against picking a certain position. I mean I am ok with the argument that 50% of 1st rd WR don't pan out, but not ok with the Lions example. At the very least I think the Lions argument is misrepresented. Roy Williams was a playmaker for Detroit he just wasn't elite and had trouble staying healthy. I'd say they had a 50% hit rate between Williams and Johnson. Also, if there is a 50/50 chance of hitting on a 1st rd WR, considering the success of our last two (Yatil Green and Ginn) then our next 1st rd WR definitely should wind up being a hit. And if there is a 20% chance of a WR being a #1 if you look at all our WR picks in rd 1 (Hill, McDuffie, Green, Ginn) then our next one should surely be a #1.
Unfortunately I don't think this regime cares much about WR productivity although it's been a major recipe for success this season.
Who knows? Maybe Ted Ginn blossoms next year and becomes that guy. Maybe Brian Hartline continues impressing and becomes that guy. Maybe we don't need that guy to get to the promised land. I've said it before and I'll say it again...our receivers are better than people give them credit for. I would love for someone either on our current roster or an offseason acquisition to become a dominant force at the position, but I don't think we NEED one to be great and win Super Bowls.
Name 5 teams who have worse WRs than us. When you struggle to come up with more than 2, consider why that is.
I'm not saying we have great WR's, but we are a team that prides itself on running the football and now have a good young QB to go with it. Like I said, I believe our WR's can get the job done. Would I love to get a dominant receiver? Of course I would. I guess I just believe in our receivers more than others do.
Right now we are the Houston Texans, minus Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Give Henne those type of targets, and we can afford to have a defensive collaspe on occasions.
we were 1-15 two seasons ago this team needed to be rebuilt and that is what they are doing. when there is nothing to work with you cant just go out and grab playmakers. you have to build the team from the inside out. i would expect the ones who whine and moan about the team would understand were we are at this point. if you go out and sign these so called playmakers and have not put a foundation together you might as well be clapping with one hand. if there is one thing that inexperienced Dolphin fans all share it is a lack of being patient. all the years of all the bad coaching, bad drafting and blown fa deals or trades should have taught Dolphin fans a lesson about how things should not be done. instead they continue to ***** about the teams reluctance to piss away cash and picks. i dont get it.
Yes, but take our offense as it is currently constructed and make a few stops on defense and we are a playoff team. We were going with a very inexperienced quarterback, had a revolving door at center and both guards, no production from tight end and were missing our best player on offense for half the year. Even with all that, if our defense is even middle of the pack, makes a few stops in a few games and causes more turnovers we win 11 games and the division. We gave up 25 points per game on defense this year, the 4th highest total in TEAM history. Only once during the Olivadatti era did we give up more. We forced 21 turnovers on defense this year. Only 4 teams had that few. Not forcing any turnovers leads to needing long drives to put points on the board. I said it all year and I'm going to say it all offseason, fix the DEFENSE! We don't need a receiver bad enough to reach for one and passing on defensive help. Yes, I admit we need a #1 receiver but we are not alone in my opinion. Look at our "needs" on offense. A #1 type receiver. A seam busting tight end. A young depth guard (to backup Thomas and Garner because Smiley is toast and Berger will play when Grove gets hurt). I argue we could use a veteran backup QB and a young running back in case Cobbs doesn't return to form. That is quite a list but we have options for all of them. On defense I could argue that we are TOTALLY screwed at several positions. We need a nose tackle (a veteran type). We need a middle linebacker. We need a strongside OLB (I'd move Taylor to the weakside and have him rotate with Cam Wake). We need a free safety (move Wilson to SS and have him fight it out with Bell) and we might need a nickle (depending on Will Allen). I'm not going to scream from the rooftops if we pick a receiver in the first round as long as we don't reach for one. I'm saying that we have so many needs that picking BPA from a list of a half dozen positions is the way to go for the entire draft, not just the first round. I'm also not buying the myopic view that some have that "a #1 receiver makes us a contender". You give me our offense with Larry Fitzgerald and we still miss the playoffs. You give me our current offense with a top 15 defense and we win the division.
WHAT!? How about having the wideouts stretching the field so you can get a real running game going!?? Imagine our running game if we could stretch the field with some deep threat and than using the wildcat!
The Jets are 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game and I'm watching them right now trying to win another Play-Off game. But they are 1st in the NFL in rushing and they have a very good defense. Just saying...............
Fitzgerald on this team and we're in the playoffs. Also our defense may be ranked in the top 15 (as meaningless as that is). The key to football in the NFL is limiting/getting turnovers, passing efficiently and stopping the pass efficiently. Turnovers fluctuate from year to year on most teams. As for the the other two, you need a QB and some big targets at either WR or TE. We may have the QB but we have nobody who could be that guy at WR. Other than Turner, who whispers are that he just doesn't get it, we don't have anybody with the size and speed to be that guy. On D it means pass rush and FS play. We had a decent pass rush last year (top 5-10). And while it's clearly a need we do have some pass rushers on the team. At FS, they seem to believe in Clemons who at least has the size and speed to fill the position. And at NT (not for pass rush, but since you mentioned it) we do have Soliai who is at least a good rotation guy and arguably a good starter. If the guys above pan out we still have holes at WR and ILB. Those are the two positions we don't even have options at. Fortunately ILB is one of those positions you can get a top 10 guy in FA or in the middle of the draft most every year. Unfortunately, those #1 WR types are the ones you have to spend bigger resources on. As Ireland said you usually have to use a first.
Passing yards is a useless stat. It has almost no correlation to wins. The passing stat that is correlated is passing efficiency (YPA). The Jets were 17th during the regular season and so far in the playoffs they have the highest YPA. That being said I expect the Chargers to win the YPA battle vs. the Jets. If they do that and are at least even on turnovers the Chargers will most likely win.
Is a #1 receiver going to stop the HUGE plays we gave up all year? Is a #1 receiver going to stop teams from scoring? People....we gave up 25 points per game, a #1 receiver does not change the FACT that our defense was terrible.
I don't CARE about sacks. Sacks are an overrated statistic. We did not put consistent pressure on the passer all year. Are you prepared to go into the year with Paul Soliai as our starting nose tackle? Are you prepared to go into the year with Clemons as our starting free safety? Defense always has and always will win championships. (Waits for the inevitable posts about the Colts etc). For every Colts I'll give you 4 Steelers or a Bears or a Giants. There is a reason we missed the playoffs and it has NOTHING to do with our lack of a "#1 receiver". It has everything to do with us giving up 25 points per game.
It has nothing to do with a "crystal ball", it has everything to do with giving up 25 points per game.
We'll keep looking for our WR in mid rounds and FA. I hope we target Cody from Alabama as #12 seems too high to take any of the LBs available. We've had a hard time finding Ferguson's replacement and that's a lot of weight on a surgically repaired knee so he might not be back. Without a big NT, our 3-4defense isn't going to work. JMO.
And the Chargers are 4:00 minutes from losing to the Jets. The Jets (like us) are built to win end of the year, bad weather games. Great running attack and very strong defense. I really do not think that WR is a problem for us. QBs like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Farve can make any group of WRs look good, what we need is a year of improvement from Chad Henne and the youngest WR corp in the NFL. I though coming into last year that a very good TE was much more important then a WR and again we passed on a number of good ones. TEs Jared Cook and Shawn Nelson had better 40 times then Pat White did. We do not run a 3 to 4 WR offense, we have much more of a 2 TE offense. Pat Turner has the size but not the speed to be a playmaking WR. And he only had one good year. Pat White and Pat Turner were not even anywhere on "my" draft board. I admitted to everyone that I had never wasted my time watching Pat White play in college because I thought that we would never draft him. Bill Parcells has always been known for having the smallest draft board of anyone in the NFL. He simply does not take anyone under a certain size and speed. He plays the odds. It is true that he missed great smaller players doing this. He never would have taken Zack Thomas. But then he would have never drafted T Ginn, John Beck and Samson Satele either. This is why I'm 90% sure that Pat White was not his pick. For Parcells a QB needs to be normally has to be 6'4" (I was surprised we took him). IMO, one main reason that the Jets had a good YPA was their rushing attack. Something like 45% of their pass attempts were Play Action passes. And I would have taken P Willis or R Lewis over Fitzgerald. Or Dallas Clark or Jason Witten.
You have to look at it a little deeper.... Do you really think the Saints' defense is that good....no and they don't have to be when they are putting 35+ on the board each week. You want to see Henne's development stunted? Then yeah, let's ignore the need to upgrade his targets.
All you have to do to figure out where Parcells' priorities are going to be this offseason is look at how fast he jettisoned Pasqualoni. He's going for defense. He has concluded that the man at the top didn't know what he was doing; didn't have the answers to what was causing the collapses and couldn't adjust, so that as soon as possible he had to bring in somebody else who does. If he and the new guy figure they can do it with the guys they have, fine, but I doubt it. They're going to go for the bodies they need to fix the D. Bigger priority. WRs will come by FA or late rounds. Just my opinion. No crystal ball.