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The context is yards past the sticks, not total yards per attempt.

They tried that, or something similar with NFL Europe. While I think it’s a good idea, there is an awful lot of money that goes into making a...

The reason relegation works in soccer is that the difference the best of the 2nd division and the worst of the first division isn’t so great. The...

Nope. Franchise savior is number 1 overall, maybe number 2. The value of draft position decays exponentially. Historically the #5 overall pick...

Some I like, The New Jersey Giants/Jets The Flaming Thumbtacks (referring to the Tennessee helmet logo) The Browns [said with the right intonation...

I’ll leave Tua out because he obviously is number 1 for obvious reasons. 1) Tyreek Hill. We’ve had many high profile WR signings that never lived...

I don’t claim myself to be any kind of draft expert. However what I look for is how the player performs against the top college teams, how they...

Your own words - More than that, though, he does not have the talent disparity vs other teams that he had in college. Ignoring that is the most...

I seem to remember Tua coming to national prominence with his play in the 2017 national championship game, where his substitution for Jalen Hurts...

Thanks cbrad. One other thing I’d add, separate from cherry picking, is that when you slice data into smaller and smaller fractions you will find...

I normally only follow the first round live, and then check on the summaries for day 2 and 3. This year zero interest in the draft, and I can’t...

To be fair to Bruschi when he played the Pats were allowed to get away with mugging opposing receivers in the street on their way to the stadium....

Mike Florio is becoming less and less reliable and more and more clickbait-y every year. It’s at the point where if he told me the sky is blue I”d...

The point Campbell was making was off field issues are only really an issue if they affect on field performance. NFL reams are willing to put up...

It’s not weird to get fired after going 3-13. Especially when in the prior year you were 8-8. Kingsbury was seen as some kind of offensive...

For hiring a lackluster coach like Wilks in the first place? I’ve had a quick review of his record as DC at Carolina and at Cleveland before and...

Assuming the Flores memo exists, why isn’t it quoted in his claim? If you've got solid gold like that, then as a lawyer you put it front and...

There is a long term stable correlation between a team’s NFL passer rating within a season and win% (around 0.65 iirc). Cbrad has run the stats...

You’re the one beating the drum about great players whow greatness immediately. Why did Tom Brady split playing time with Drew Henson in college?...

‘The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins,...

Well at least that will take the microscope off Ross.

My impression was that after 2 years of churn and burn the FO said “we’re not buying you any more expensive toys until you learn to look after the...

Steve Young https://fansided.com/2021/01/30/hilarious-pro-bowl-exchange-brett-favre-steve-young-video/ Joe Montana had on OK arm at best. Tom...

Arm strength is overrated because it is highly visible. There is a matrix of factors that contribute to the ability to be an NFL calibre QB in...

My assumptions. 1) With the addition of Armstead we are done with significant FA signings.. 2) Our draft will not add any difference makers....

I’m firmly of the belief that coaching was the main issue last year. You don’t get that bad without the captain steering the ship into the rocks....

If he wanted to do that he wouldn’t be banging on about systemic racism and calling John Elway a drunken racist. He could just have filed his...

Dear Emmanuel, ‘Snake eyes’ is not a good thing, but I get your meaning. BTW congrats and I’m very happy for you and the phins in this.

Inflation is eating his savings, he has to go back to work.

Whatever merits Flores has on legal grounds is getting washed away by headline chasing by his lawyers. That may work if the goal was to shame the...

Another problem with over-fitting data is when it is combined with culling data. A researcher may exclude certain data because of reasons such as:...

iirc Don Hutson of the 1940s Packers is the only other WR in NFL history with 20+ ypc and a TD better than every 5 receptions.

Best WR Warfield first and daylight second. Best receiving 1-2 combo Clayton and Duper. Best 1-2-3 Clayton, Duper and Moore. Best TE. Wake me...

Package apparently us 1st round pick, 2 x 2nd round + Drew Lock + swap of 4th and 5th round pucks. One thing it does is devalue what the Texans...

I heard his wife absolutely vetoed it. Zach got so intense and into his film study and prep as a player she felt she and the kids would never see...

Considering the product he put on the field after 3 years of trying neither does Flores.

Flo said Ross personally asked for the NDA. That is different from the Dolphin’s lawyers asking for the NDA. Ross vehemently denies personally...

Nice to know that Lovie Smith doesn’t count as black.

Billy Turner for one

So now for Flores to win in court he’s going to have to go to court and prove Lovie Smith is an inferior coach to him. You establish...

Was the tractor OK?

Stephen A. saying that is a bit like the latté complaining the cappuccino isn’t an espresso.

I think it’s more likely that Flores went to an attorney with an agenda, and the attorney is using Flores as an excuse to go for a ride on his...

The problem with the general approach is that Flores is presenting his case, saying he personally was discriminated against. The point of a law...

It’s a long time since I practiced law, and not I didn’t directly work with employment law, so take my musings with a truck load of salt. -...

Well, about 1/3 of the NFL had HC vacancies and none of them hired him, I wasn’t paying too much attention but I didn’t hear his name on too many...

Bienemy has sexual harassment/rape allegations in his past along with some arrests and a bullying scandal. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago teams would...

Luck wasn’t better than Tannehill.

Doesn’t matter. You can’t buy something that isn’t for sale. Maybe if you had a Texans/Watson (assuming no legal issues only discontent) situation...

That arrest record is more than a bit concerning, and I hadn’t been aware of it, as is the bullying issue. The rape accusation is something that...

My feelings are that 1) It’s creepy, but not illegal for Watson to have so many massage therapists. 2) the lawyer for the accusers has done dodgy...

My criteria. 1) From a proven coaching tree. (No Belichek clones) 2) First time HC, as SB winning coaches are more likely to be first time hires...

I just read the article, and buried at the end is the correlation between the new measure and win% NGS - 0.61 PFF - 0.56 QBR - 0.54 Noticeably...

I’m starting to think that it’s BB being HC/GM that curses his assistants when they go to a different organization and have to learn how to manage...

Don Shula reached the SB with the Colts. He was poached from Indy by offering him HC/GM + a 5% stake in the Dolphins

Problem is proven HCs who can consistently take teams deep into the playoffs don’t get fired very often. I’ll do a run on the numbers one day, but...

It’s called being a good communicator. Establishing rapport, building networks , persuading others to see what you see. It is a prime requisite of...

Overall I am onboard with this move. Back to back winning seasons within the first 3 years is a strong indicator that you have a strong HC, one...

I have some thoughts, and when I have time I’ll express them fully. However, the basic problem I see with the team is that it isn’t built to...

For me it’s a little bit of a pity he became so famous as a broadcaster and face of a video game franchise. The man was an amazing football coach,...

The fact we’ve won 6 in a row is irrelevant to winning the next 3. Based on 50-50 each game that’s a 1 in 8 chance.

It looks like defenses have him figured out, and as a passer he’s been a little less than average. Maybe he can come back, but until he shows he...

I’m not saying had a good game, but there were several plays in the game that would not be out of place in a MVP highlight reel. He had a couple...

Napoleon Bonaparte had a long history of abandoning his troops in the field after losing: - Egyptian Campaign - Aspern-Essling - 1812 Campaign -...

Can’t agree with this. Firstly, every player drafted is developmental. Secondly and more importantly it’s about what the olayer’s ceiling is and...

I remember reading an article from the 1970s about how Don Shula turned the Dolphins around. He was very big on getting former NFL players to be...

I would have fired him after the lap dance incident. Not because of any morality issues, but simply because that event cemented him into a...

It has to be a coaching issue. Until we get a good OL coach we won’t even know which players have it at the the NFL level. Just look at the purge,...

In the last 2 or 3 games Tua has been showing more arm strength than he has previously as a Dolphin. I think the talk that the recovery from the...

My first thought was Samoan, but then again a Samoan lady wouldn’t need mace or a gun. I remember being at a party with a Samoan who was an OG in...

It was the 3rd unblocked hit on him in a series and a half. The last one may not even have been the one that did most of the damage.

While I think it is patently disrespectful for professional announcers to mispronounce a name, I’ll give people a pass with Tua. I grew up playing...

It still depends a lot on the process. If we go 10-7 and miss the playoffs due to tiebreakers I could live with that if Tua balls out and we show...

I would remove overtime for regular season games altogether and let more games end in ties. For 2 reasons 1) Player safety 2) it creates more...

Again another example of why Houston is a poorly run team. You return that phone call even if it’s just to say “thanks, but no thanks”. NFL teams...

Three 1st rounders for Deshaun would be a good deal, but only if it was before the draft and with a clean legal situation.

This is how bad teams are run. The Texans could have shipped him off before the legal troubles started. The Texans could have shipped him off...

Never gonna happen. Besides base salary and guarantees are paid on the expectation of future performance, whilst (true) bonuses are paid for...

Looking at the way his previous deal was structured it makes perfect sense to me that: 1) X was unhappy with it; 2) X fired the agent who...

Bounce of the ball, matchups, opponent’s mistakes, unexpected game plans can all go to creating an illusion of a coach who can win more with...

Need to make sure if 2 things. 1) Is Flores the real deal? Another winning season in 2021 will strongly suggest he is. 2) Is Tua a consistent...

My opinion is that because of 1) Injuries to the WR room, especially late in the season. 2) Restricted practices due to Covid 3) Possible...

Let’s add the McMartin pre-school and Cardinal George Pell to that list. Who needs a trial or evidence?

I ran the math on this 4 or 5 seasons ago. The AFC East has been more or less .500 once you take the Pats out of the equation. The only reason why...

I think this isn’t about Tua. It’s about an opportunity to grab a HoF caliber passer at the start if the prime of his career. Watson has shown...

I’m not grading on success/fail. I’m grading on success (exceeds expectations / OK (meets expectations) / fail (below expectations).

For me, in order of importance. 1) what Cbrad said about HoF coaches developing consistent winners by year 3 of their tenure. I think the only...

Talk about deliberately stirring the pit to create dissatisfaction in order to create a story.

and to quote one of the great legal minds* of the 20th Century “And I am that fool”. [* I can’t recall if it was Gomez Addams or Groucho .Marx]

I’ve been a lawyer and I’ve taught ESL. I’m pretty confident my meaning was clear and incapable of being misunderstood by someone moderately...

There the rules, then there are The Rules. You can break the rules any time as long as you are prepared to pay the penalty. For example offensive...

The problem with that is in the NFL the team can break the contract at any time for any reason (eg injury, off field issues, new player who does...

D DM is the original. LoDM is the sequel. Legend is reasly good, but the original is better. The original was the first comedy Jackie Chan did....

You need to see the original “Drunken Master“

There’s your answer.

Can’t speak about anyone else, but I first started watching the NFL in 1984 which made me a Dolphins fan.

So we shouldn’t say Dion Jordan had alcohol issues purely on the basis that alcohol is legal? Doesn’t matter what happens afterwards. If it was...

I love Ricky. However, I always gets angry when his name gets brought up, because I firmly believe that Wannstadt wrecked him and was the real...

Nothing new in the article. Now they have built the base in 2018/20 it’s the building to win consistently, not sell out today for tomorrow or...

I’ve only looked at Waddle and Philips, and both of them fairly quickly. Both of them seem to have fairly complete games, in that there isn’t...

We filled the needs we had going i to the draft - Prioritize receiving weapons - Acquire edge rusher - solidify secondary - keep improving the...

Slot receivers and Nickel CBs are starters in the modern NFL. It makes sense to give them draft value on the basis that they are starters.

You have to look at the injury. A simple fracture, which is what I understand the injury was, is something you will make a 99.9% recovery from....

I do lime that the FO and Coaching staff have a “type” they lime and work to. I personally prefer a faster, more agile OL, but having a plan and...

The old saying about a bird in the hand applies. 6 weeks ago they could have traded Deshaun for the #3 overall and Tua plus maybe some change. Now...

I wish I could claim it as my own. I don’t know if it’s widespread or just a local idiom.

Unless something bizarre happens, best WR available. For example If it goes QB, WR (Jets be Jets), QB, WR, WR then Sewell has to be hard to...

In Australia the cops refer to sports stars as quokkas. Quokkas are an endangered species that live on a small island free from natural predators...

Having read the allegations as cleaned up by the lawyer something strikes me as being off. 1) I didn’t know instagram masseuse was a thing, but it...

We saw him as an OLB at times in Miami. He was an even worse OLB than he was a DE in the NFL. He made some good plays like matching Gronk step for...

For me. 1) Continual improvement on the OL. We were better last year than we have been for 5 or 6 years, but we weren’t good, a little below...

I don’t really read too much into highlight reels, except for what doesn't show up. What was a little disconcerting for me was that about 1:15 of...

1) I think Lawrence and Fields will go 1-2, which leaves Wilson as the next best option. If we are going to draft a QB high then you need to get...

The statistical measure I like best is passer rating because it has a strong history of being correlated to winning and because it uses a small...

continuity was the reason Adam Gase was still the HC fir the Jets this year. How did that work out for the Jets and Sam Darnold?

I wouldn’t compare X to Gilmore’s 2019. Gilmore getting DPOY was weak sauce, based on I don't know what. Gilmore never stood out for me like other...

Tua has 4 games with an above NFL average passer rating and 4 games with a below average passer rating. Considering where this team was at the...

Also thank you to the Jets. I know I would have preferred you to go 0-16, but guaranteeing yourselves the #2 pick of the draft and taking yourself...

My position on pressure stats is that they don’t differentiate between a 2 DTs coming through unblocked between the A gaps before the QB can set...

The thing is we’d tried 3 OCs plus an interim OC, 2HCs and an interim HC and 2 GMs and the team was mediocre and the only constant in the key...

See the careers of his former Offensive Co-ordinators since they left Miami. - Mike Sherman - Bill Lazor - Zac Thomas (QBs coach under Sherman and...

My inexpert opinion is that in his first 2 years Allen was able to make bad decisions, but not get punished for many of them because of his arm...

It wasn’t the lack of a RB that hurt Marino’s chances of a SB win. It was the completely ineffective defence. That lack of D comes down more to...

I’ve been waiting for him to fall back to Earth, but this year he’s kept making plays. I haven’t watched too many Bills games so I don’t know if...

I think the opposite. We can expect the D to play well. It’s the O who has to play like a bunch of crazed dogs. We aren’t going to beat the...

Yeah, but what if Superman turns nto Clarke Kent? The risk is too much to draft him that high.

Thanks arodgers, Always good to see you here. Your comments about the Bay bring to mind Dan Marino’s career. Hope you guys can give Aaron a decent...

Xavien should be our first All-pro I think since JT.

My money is on the Coach, not the surrounding cast. Significant offensive coaches Tannehill had in Miami and their league rank sinse leaving Miami...

Tua was having a lot of trouble identifying pressure and making the right OL adjustments. It’s part of being a rookie. He couldn’t get the job...

One of my all time favorite fins. RIP.

From 5-3 the expectation is 10-6. From 6-3 the expectation is between 11-5 and 10-6. So 10-6 is doing slightly worse than expected from here. At...

Completely disagree. My perfect season includes the 2-14 Pats and the 0-16 Jets. And yes this is better than both teams going 0-14-2.

I’ll be rooting for Tannehill to do well, just not well enough to win. Apart from that I’m also rooting for Gase to go 0-16.

I rewatched the game. The future of NFL QBs seems to be evolving more into the light fast agile QB like Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson, not the old...

Notice where Christian Wilkins’ name appears on that chart. It looks like we have a pair of solid run stuffers in the middle of the line, with...

On some Jets forums I read to lick their salty tears of desperation there is an idea they are keeping Gase on to ensure the #1 pick

It’s been more fun to read about the Jets this year.

Consider the tear down and rebuild we started 2 years ago and how RBs seem to be pretty interchangeable in the modern NFL. It makes sense for the...

That’s a really good read. I was impressed by the fact he had opportunities to throw Gase and Philbin under a bus but didn’t and Kept it classy.

It wasn’t consistently bad play though, a lot of it was the inconsistency. On one play Billy Turner (for example) would block like a pro-bowler...

I think it’s a coaching decision. I think it’s more abut the OL gelling to the point where Flores feels it is safe to put Tuan on field. However,...

Just look at the numbers. The Jets were in max protect (7 blockers) and the phins sent 5 rushers. Yet the phins still had 2 basically unblocked...

He got plenty of practice doing that here.

Cbrad, I know you were very critical of Ryan Tannehill’s performance in Miami when behind in the 4th quarter. Out of interest how does his...

He can if the team wins. Highly drafted QBs become busts all the time. It is reasonable to assume there is no such thing as a 100% sure fire...

Well if the Jets draft Lawrence I can only hope they keep Adam Gase on as HC. It will be almost impossible for him to develop into a good NFL QB...

3 months is expected. However, if he gets ahead of schedule he may only be out for 2 months and be back for late season/playoff games.

As a Belgian friend said to me once, American beer (Referencing the generics like Budweiser) is like making love in a canoe.

There’s a fair bit of evidence that ESPN don’t understand their code. The issue about the highest QBR rated game in history, and how they...

Cowboy Bebop. opening theme - Tank (Full version’ [MEDIA] Closing theme - The real Folk Blues [MEDIA] The soundtrack to the series, which is...

It depends. If the OL has reasonable health and keep splaying well. If Jones and Howard are healthy and can keep the pass defense solid. If the DL...

This is basically why the house always wins in casino gambling, even with games such as baccarat where the house margin is 1% or 2%. Once you have...

If you remeber Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt you’ll also remember they didn’t end up helping the Colts that much. Emtman was good but injured...

Which is precisely why we can’t rely on memories.

Another factor on the 49ers dynasty is that the rest of the NFC West was pretty weak as a whole throughout that period. The Rams had some good...

I have a different criticism about the article than cbrad. A couple of times the writer intones “regression to the mean” as if it is a magic spell...

Stolen from a Jets forum following their loss to Denver. BTW fun stat only 3 times in the past 10 years has a team +3 in turnovers lost. all 3 are...

Some Jets fans are pushing back against calls for Gase to get fired. They want him to go 0-16, have that on his coaching record so he can never...

All what I can say is that Gase has continued the standard he set at the Dolphins 1) Atrocious OL play. People who have played college OL have...

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reports from the NY media are that a decision has been to NOT fire Gase this season, no matter what happens. Thinking is that disrupting the...

Isn’t the difference between average offensive player and average defensive player explained entirely by the QB’s salary? I may have my...

For me what they’re showing, for the first time in many years, is a unit that is working as a cohesive whole. It’s still a work in progress.

Been listening ti Blondie a fair bit recently. Clem Burke is Leapfrogging a whole bunch of other drummers on my list. He lays down a fancy intro...

I want to vote “an above average QB”, but if he keeps up this pace he’ll move up into “elite”.

I must say that Gardner Minshew is about the anti-Tannehill. He’s got excellent pocket skills, an upbeat and loud leadership style, makes things...

Game script/situation is a huge hidden variable, I completely agree with that. However the Bengals OL were missing assignments like Philbin/Gase...

He may turn out to be a stud, but if his OL keeps playing like that he’s more likely to be a smear on the grass.

I would say that graph says more about RT’s OCs in Miami than it does about Tannehill. Whether it is poor play design (Sherman), poor play calling...

I loved Joe Schad’s tweet. Pointing in a not too subtle way that Omar Kelly is a fool

But just for the sake of comparison, if my Auntie replaced her lady parts With meat and 2 veg, she’d be my uncle.

I agree with your point. The tangent I was going on was more to do about the rights of anybody to impose their belief system using someone else’s...

There is a difference between being an employee/service provider and being the owner of a business. As an employee/contractor you owe a fiduciary...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/319256/farming-rises-sports-tumbles-industry-ratings.aspx

Did you ever hear the phrase “Suck for Luck” before? Indy tanked their whole season in order to draft Andrew Luck, whose career stats are very...

There has been some recent research into how the politicization of sports affects your audience. The nutshell version is that it doesn’t move the...

What is the scientific basis for a top 5 pick? Is there a sudden drop off starting at pick #6? What is the history of top 5 QB picks? Do game 1...

Dan Marino didn’t start game 1 as a rookie. He couldn’t beat out Dave Woodley. What a bum and a waste of a first round pick.

Oi, Egghead was played by Vincent Price. By definition that makes him a top tier villain.

Oh that would make me so very happy.

Rosen has done something not even Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith or JaMarcus Russel were able to do. Yes they were all QBs on bad situations on bad teams...

Covid is going to mess up the first half of the season badly due to disrupted practices and the flow ons from that. All predictions are going to...

I basically stopped reading the website Travis was writing for last season when he left. The other writers were nowhere near his standard, not in...

I had completely forgotten Marshawn Lynch had been a Bill.

My biggest complaint was that when we decided to let him go we had no one in the deep threat/big play threat on our roster. Which lead to us...

Cumulative stats on points differential are fairly meaningless. It Is better to look at whether the team was behind or ahead, not the cumulative...

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. In Miami Minkah was JAG, in Pitt he’s a first team All-pro, who, according to one film analyst, was...

No. Just that it’s an activity I do to pass the time of day until the season starts. It isn’t something I am heavily invested in, but it’s better...

Hey, if it’s off season I am perfectly entitled to go to my favorite fishing hole, drop a line and see if I get a bite.

Have a look at Griese’s seasons after Csonka/Kiick/Warfield left the Dolphins and before his shoulder got wrecked. If the Dolphins didn’t win the...

In addition it has been shown that the “extreme inbalance” was a function of the Titans olaying with a lead and using Henry to run out the clock....

If that is the case, what in particular about the Tennessee situation is something impossible to sustain? Dominant OL? Killer D? Exotic offensive...

The test of a theory is how well it predicts reality. To do that you need falsifiable predictions. For the 2 main groups “Tannehill is an average...

It didn’t just happen over 11 games. It also happened previously over 8 games in 2016 from week 6 to week 13. In both groups of games Tannehill...

You mean the ones that people have been making ever since Tannehill lead the league in passing after 6 games as a starter? The same ones that got...

In the end you’re still dealing with with a sample of people making “regression to the mean” arguments ever since Tannehill started 6 games that...

The article was written on the basis of Tannehill’s first 7 starts, not his complete 11 games. Specifically mentioning he was leading the NFL in...

On the other hand there is nothing to say that Tannehill will not have a mid/late career surge like Rich Gannon or Jim Plunkett. When the level...

You did read my last line re Adam Gase? 4 years out 4 in the league his teams have had bad OL ratings in whichever metric you care to use (apart...

According to this study https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-rate-adjusted-pressure Tennessee’s OL was middle of the pack in...

Derek Henry got paid. $50M over 4 years, first 2 basically guaranteed. Makes him roughly the 5th highest paid RB. Henry gets a solid payday...

Rivalries only happen when there is a history of significant games between the teams. For example the 49ers and Cowboys in the early 90s. Before...

It must be true because an anonymous person on the internet said it was. 1) No proof is offered. No facts seem to be verified above what is...

I’d love to have the problem of having the first team All-pro safety that other teams actively scheme to avoid. It’s a pity we haven’t drafted...

Minkah was complaining about not being given time to prepare properly and not being given clear indications of what his role would be in the game...

I have to agree with cbrad. There’s a lot people who support Tannehill can point to regarding film study. There’s a lot of to point to that his...

You know, with all the NFL talent that Alabama has put into the BFL on OL, WR and RB no one downgraded other ‘bama QBs based on the talent around...

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This is a video analysis of Sam Darnold and the Jets in 2019, but you can take what Zac says about the OL and Adam Gase’s schemes and cut and...

ex-NFL QB TJ McCarron’s view on it. [MEDIA]

Looking at the Ravens game in isolation. Tannehill scored more points in the 1st quarter + the first 2 plays of the 2nd quarter than Baltimore...

I agree with you. Tannehill will only get into the HoF with multiple SB rings. The only reason I brought up the HoF is another poster who has...

Moon the Loon. Insanely fast hands. If you listen to tracks from The Who he does fills in spaces where there is no space. Probably the first true...

The short version why I believe Tannehill is more likely to turn his career around than be a one season wonder is coaching. Of the QBs who...

well the historical instances of a QB having a mediocre early career followed up by a stellar mid to late career are very limited. Depending on...

I sincerely doubt if any team has offered anything more than a conditional 7th round pick for him. The other teams are just ringing to see if the...

I’ve taught ESL professionally. I’ve trained chefs professionally. I’ve been the designated trainer for the legal department of an insurance...

Mark Sanchez was a liability for the Jets. His regular season QB play cost them at least 2 to 3 wins in both seasons, robbing them of first round...

In addition to other offensive player talent you also have the effects of: - Coaching (a) scheme development and game planning - Coaching (b) play...

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Not true. Rich Gannon and Jim Plunkett are guys who performed average for a long time then elevated. Alex Smith arguably is another.

6. Zac Taylor 2-14. As Bengals HC. (24-8 as Sean McVay’s QB coach, but considering McVay ran the offense and Taylor was the QB’s coach not OC I...

Some first round bust we drafted a few years ago. I can’t be bothered to remember his name correctly anymore.

it reminded me a little of the Dion Johnson pick. You have all the off field measurables you could want, but when you put on the gane tape all he...

It’s the bigger guys who hold a lot, using the leverage of their bodies. The smaller guys are much more about agility and slaps to keep the bigger...

Dude you need to watch sumo properly. It’s all about the feet and the balance.

I fully agree Rosen should be in the mix to compete. I just have very low expectations for Rosen. If Rosen comes out and proves me wrong then...

case 1 He is the clear #1 in pre-season/training camp. We have to play him. The easiest way to lose the locker room is not playing your best QB....

what I bolded you can cut and paste into almost every assessment of every pick we made this draft.

Well we saw last year that Flores and by extension Grier were willing to cut bait on coaches (OL coach ore-season OC post season) and productive...

One thing about the OT and CB picks. Both players are 20 years old, which means we get at least 2 full contracts out of them (5 year 1st round...

Deion Sanders was very fast, but he wasn’t the gold standard for fast as far as DBs of that era are concerned. The only person saying Deion was...

If there wan’t a risk he’d be going number 1 overall.

I’m not so worried about the 2nd break. It’s very common for a fracture to recur if too much stress is put on it too early, and then recover fully...

A lot of people talked Mike Hull up as an opening day starter at MLB when we signed him, which tells you more about our neglect of the LB position...

With mock drafts, I think the big problem is that it represents ne person’s wishful thinking. The person making the mock makes an assessment of...

There are 3 prospects I’d be OK with drafting. Tua or Herbert at number 5 and Hurts on day 2. I’d also be on board with drafting Burrow if it...

There is a long established precedent that you do not mix playoff data with regular season data. This goes double for small sample sizes....

Even then Andrew Luck never lived up to his draft billing. Pat Mahomes has done more in his first 3 years than Luck did in his entire career.

Up to the point the Titans went up 14-0 they had run 14 plays. 7 rushes for Henry and 6 passes for Tannehill, plus a rush for a 1st down by...

Regards the stacked line against the Ravens in the playoffs. On the 1st play of the 2nd quarter the Titans had opened up a 14-0 lead. Maybe that...

The guy. Why are you obsessed about high volume passing? History shows that passing efficiency is correlated with winning, not volume. History...

If we are going to shoot for 3 pointers from half court I’d rather go with Jameis Winston. Cam’s injury history worries me a lot.

Nick has a higher floor than Cam or Jameis - Cam because if injury risk, Jameis because of turnover risk. Also a bird in the hand is worth 2 in...

If I could get the Dolphins # 5 plus 2 of their other 4 1st round picks over the next 2 drafts and a 2nd or 3rd rounder or two I’d do it. Because...

He should sign for a team like the Titans were last year. i.e. A solid team that has questions at the QB position. Maybe the Pats fit the bill,...

The Titans was a significantly different environment than Miami. The coaching was better, the OL was better, the RB was better and the playcalling...

Why do you call her Lassie?

Yes we do http://www.footballperspective.com/history-of-trading-the-first-overall-pick-in-the-nfl-draft/ 5 times since the merger has the number 1...

I think OL is more important. Kenyan Drake averaged 3.7 y/a with us and 5.2 y/a with the Cards, and it isn’t as if the Cardinals OL is great. Get...

I just had a quick look at the next gen stats. On things like air yards, aggression%, air yards to the sticks etc. Tannehill is generally ranked...

Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Nick Foles are not top QBs. They are average to good QBs who had hot streaks in the playoffs. All 3 QBs were matched...

Let’s look at the NFL since the introduction of the rookie salary cap as part of the NFL CBA since 2011. This is where the idea of having a good...

The Titans would have had to shed talent if they signed any of the FA QBs available. The Chiefs will have to when it’s time to re-sign Mahiomes....

Belichek is also on the down end of his career. He’s 67 or 68 and few coaches in any top level sport are successful at that age. He’s already the...

With the salary cap rising over time I’d expect the 2022 cap hit to come down to an Aaron Rogers type percentage in 2022. Comparing past salary...

Here’s a longer analysis. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2020/futures-oregon-qb-justin-herbert A film breakdown of his interceptions...

Ryan Tannehill v2.0 Elite arm and athleticism. Works well in structure. Can get flustered when things get off script, and a tendency to stare...

If Mariota had played like Tannehill they’d have ended up paying him similar money. If neither had worked out they’d be looking to sign someone...

If the top 3 go the way you suggest then I’d imagine the Giant’s GM’s phone would be in danger of melting down because of the number of teams...

My initial reaction was to say pass, we have a reasonable collection of LBs and have more urgent needs at other parts of the team (OL and DL in...

Ir’s been obvious for at least 2 years that he no longer. The trouble is once you lose that fire and enthusiasm for working at a particular place...

In theory you can eventually get 3 or 4 first round picks every year by trading 2nds for future firsts and 3rds for future 2nd and so on. Once you...

At the start of 2019 we were hoping for a 3rd round pick, primarily from letting Jawuan James walk. However because injuries cut short his playing...

Sounds a little bit like the comments I heard about Gardner Minnshew before the draft last year. ie - if he can clean up his mechanics to...

That then indicates a problem with talent identification and/or coaching.

One caveat is that without checking the historical data we don’t know f QB rushing is going up, or whether it is our perception is that QBs are...

The methodology I would use would be based on QB rush attempts per game Put the guys who are in the upper third in the basket named “mobile” Put...

The reason why we have a bonanza of draft picks that could allow us to trade up to number 1 overall. We traded away - an All-pro FS on his rookie...

Have a look at a different QB, Gardner Minshew. Gardner had mechanical issues with throwing the ball which caused him to drop to the 6th round,...

It depends on whether BB thinks Brady has fallen off the cliff due to age or whether his poor showing last year was due to bad receivers. Philip...

There’s a theory I have seen that goes that QBs from smaller schools make better NFL QBs than those from bigger schools. It is because they have...

You’re forgetting Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill. Both of whom offer dependable veteran stability for a few years while a rookie is found and...

I hope it is for the trade bait, not any actual plan to put him on the field. Maybe he needs time and the right environment to blossom. I’d be...

Firstly. When I look at the Redskin’s situation I really don’t think we should rule them out. Of the Tua market. The have new coaches who are not...

This thread is Dracula, you can’t kill it.

Thanks very much for doing that. When I did a similar look at the data using win% I got a much more pronounced slope. Although the win% data uses...

No it is pure genius, and wins the internet today.

In professional poker there are some pretty strict ethics, for example you can’t hide or obscure big chips behind smaller value chips in your...

Not just the leading team running out the clock, but the trailing team abandons the run too. Out of interest is it possible to do a similar graph...

Regarding the moon landing. About 20 years ago I visited the Parkes radio telescope in Australia and it was at the time one of “The Moon landing...

From what I have read it’s more about people not understanding non-euclidian geometry. We get taught in elementary school that it takes four 90...

I’ve spoken to 4 astronauts (all Japanese) who have gone into space and told me what they saw from the ISS.

If I owned picks #2, 3 or 4 I would put out rumors that the Dolphins were investigating moving up. The fact that the Dolphins have their big...

One point to note about the fivethirtyeight article is that they say that early round picks are overvalued according to Jimmy Johnson’s draft...

A more modern approach should be able to get you a better outcome than the NFL’s passer rating. The NFL’s passer rating was developed in the late...

As someone who has built and used computer models it is comforting that 99% of ESPN’s model is essentially fluff and bubbles that are there purely...

There is a very famous quote in mathematics from John von Neumann “With 4 parameters (i.e. assumptions) I can fit an elephant. With 5 I can make...

In a previous career I negotiated personal injury settlements for an insurance company. Vague threats almost never work [NB in this case I am...

There are basically 2 types of negotiations. (A) One time deals with people you never do business with again, which is the area where carnies and...

Some points regarding passer rating. 1) It was developed before the NFL started tracking “sacks” as a statistic. The NFL wants to compare QBs...

The traditional passer rating reflects that the SF defense held Mahomes in check for 3/4s of the game. It includes the effect of 2 bad passes...

well it is appropriate given that the QB we couldn’t win with and the HB we couldn’t win with were both key components of teams that made deep SB...

Well he did get most improved player too. But when you consider how many other teams had the opportunity to trade for Tannehill but didn’t, and...

How do people analyze football/football players? Some people will say its all about film study and looking at players. Others will say it’s all...

anata wa wakarimasendeshitaka?

A lot of the difficulty has to do with what is your native language or other languages you are proficient in. For example my wife is a native...

If you understand the etymology that’s a feature not a flaw.

Thanks so much for doing that cbrad. I expected all the post 1978 data to fit similar patterns. It was a little interesting to see the 2002-2010...

My understanding is that the rules change was evolutionary - a change in long term trends not revolutionary - a sudden change that clearly...

Why start in 2004? The only rationalization appears to be that it is a round number. The problem with this is that you are truncating the data,...

I think that is because the coaches here didn’t allow him to lead. Under Philbin/Sherman Tannehill was the rookie who was getting chewed out for...

1) It was Philbin, who had a long history of shipping off talented players who disagreed with him. Philbin hD burned any reserve of good will fans...

He got put in Philbin’s doghouse for reasons unknown. He consistently outplayed people listed above him on the depth chart, but never got a fair...

Tennessee pretty well went for 3 man rush and 8 in coverage as their base defense against the Chiefs. I understand why they did that because...

Who are the QBs in the league who indisputably can carry a team? - Mahomes - Wilson - Brees - Rodgers The jury is out on Lamar Jackson. Some...

Why on earth would the Bengals not take Joe Burrow? They still need their QB of the future.

I think Tannehill and Henry will (should?) give Tennessee a home town discount because Tennessee gave Tanny an opportunity that basically no other...

Yes when the Chiefs were down by 24 it was Mahomes who caused Bill O’Brien to go for a fake punt deep in his half, and it was Mahomes who caused...

First thing - Saban treats the truth like it’s the girl in a bukkake film. Second thing - The idea that Saban wanted Brees much more than...

I’ve gone to the trouble of watching every Tannehill drop back in the Carolina and Houston1 games. Overall the biggest difference statistically...

I will see your Eminem and raise you Nick Cave [ATTACH] [MEDIA]

The important thing is that a certain Jamil Douglas was the starting RG in Tennessee’s game against Tampa. Henry had his lowest rushing total with...

Let’s look at these 2 datapoints First you havethe 20-30 loss to Carolina. Tannehill had an 82.3 passer rating. Good to win about 40% of games if...

Many people misunderstand or misuse the phrase, which is why I posted the correct meaning. No comment was meant or implied regarding your position.

I will assume for a moment that your hypothesis that Tannehill has poor performance in high volume games is correct. The next part of the...

The meaning of it is that the exception proves the rule. For example if you have a traffic sign that says “No parking except on Sundays” the...

Just because a QB has a weakness does not automatically mean that 1) Opposing Ds can easily exploit that weakness, or 2) That the QB is “average”...

Chan Gailey’s offenses usually had solid to good OLs. On that count I am mildly optimistic.

Passer rating leader answers the question “who was the most efficient passer in the NFL. It does not answer the questions of How did that person...

Lazor’s tendencies, in particular giving up the run as soon as he was behind on the scoreboard, turned him from a potentially productive...

I have always taken “game manager” to mean risk averse football, avoiding interceptions, fumbles and sacks by not going for high risk/high reward...

One difference for Tannehill this week is that his receivers have held onto some difficult balls. Both TD catches featured some amazing hands by...

A further point of information According to this article: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-rate-adjusted-pressure Andrew...

The sacks issue has been gone over before, perhaps not quite in so much detail. For a quick recap for those who don’t have time to read the whole...

I was just about to say something similar. I’ve heard many people praise many of Tom Brady's qualities over the years, but I have never heard...

Kirk Cousins is still ahead of Tanny, but not by too much. Cousins stats come out as slightly better than Tanny in every metric that goes into the...

Sorry for the thread necromancy but I thought it appropriate. At the end of 2019 career stats. Tannehill: 3197 attempts, 2030 completions, 23,176...

same team same teammates (arguably Mariota had better team mates because of injuries) Mariota 92.3 passer rating Tannehill 117.5 passer rating.

I think that arm strength is part of a matrix that includes - decision making speed - trigger speed - arm strength - accuracy, specifically is the...

I have argued stats to say Tannehill’s performance should improve with better coaching. Also made the argument that Tannehill had performed well...

Based on statistics it is fair to say - Tannehill’s 2019 season may be a flash in the pan, and we should wait to see if he can continue at a...

All pro update. Minkah Fitzpatrick All-pro Safety (Jamal Adams #1 with 28 votes, Minkah with 27, then Justin Simmon at #3 with 9 votes). So he...

Re-watched the game today. I mostly agree with you. There was a lot of blatant DPI that the refs weren’t calling, in fact the one time the Pats...

One thing I did lime about the Titans is that they kept running the ball even when they fell behind on the scoreboard. Tannehill had many games in...

Wrong question. “What are the chances of [specific combination of events at a specific time]? The answer usually is one in a very big number. The...

Johnny Unitas - cut by the Steelers Bart Starr - 17th round draft pick Kurt warner - packing grocery shelves. JaMarcus Russel #1 overall Ryan Leaf...

As I understand it, and I am willing to be corrected if anyone knows better, the home team provide the communications gear for both teams. That...

There is zero evidence that the Pats have a better than expected win% at home. In fact the evidence is that their home win% is exactly what their...

The same Adam Gase who made the Jet’s OL performance significantly worse than 2018? The same Adam Gase who strongly objected to the signing of...

I”d rather see a reporter as Gase why Tannehill has been so much more successful in Tennessee than in Miami.

Not defending Gase at all. Just pointing out that his W-L record has a lot of smoke and mirrors and not much of a base

Let’s review Gase’s record as a HC. There is a theory called pythagorean wins which estimates expected wins based on points scored and points...

No. He’s not. I have been a long time supporter of Tannehill. My point was I thought Tanny could be good, but I never thought he was elite i.e....

Well I have to admit I was wrong about Tanny. I thought he could be a top 10 QB with a solid OL and good run threat. I honestly didn’t think he...

Well Flores fired our original OL coach in pre-season. Most first time bosses are afraid to sack any of their hires who, for whatever reason, are...

Previous coaching staffs in Miami failed to do the obvious

For my money the only real competitor to Steve Young is Otto Graham, but he did his stuff in an era of a smaller league and fewer playoff games.

On Parker there are 2 things I see. 1) The coaches are calling/designing plays that take advantage of his skillset. Gase’s offense called for...

It’s a lesson I learned the hard way. No one ever told me it. what is very important is that you can’t take demeanor as proof of anything. If...

Gase’s offense did produce a very high number of long range TDs. In 2018 the phins comfortable lead all teams in 50+ yard TDs, and almost all of...

it’s when and how it is said that’s the tell. If it is in response to skepticism then that’s a natural honest thing to say. But if its said in...

Part of the reason why people were so down on the phins was getting blown out by Baltimore and NE in the first 2 weeks. Baltimore was supposed...

I’ve finally had a chance to watch the Bengal”s security tape. In a former career I investigated insurance fraud and there are a couple of things...

That’s precisely why he might be available at #5 rather than #1 or #2 that he would go at without the injury.

I was referring to the Houston game Thanks FinFaninBuffalo. If you credit Tannehill with a 16 yard (iirc) completion with the tackle/forced...

apropos of nothing but, if the officials had ruled the interception debited against Tanny as a fumble, would anyone disagree? It makes no...

The Titans OL has widely been considered trash for at least 2 years. The only people I see claiming the Titans OL is strong are the people wanting...

I’d say getting voted as a pro-bowl starter is meaningful. Getting into the probowl as a backup/alternate has far less meaning now than in the...

I would be opposed for non-football reasons. The baggage of his previous experience in Miami would overshadow everything, create mountains out of...

I was about to say why bother putting him on IR for the last week of the season. But then I saw what Brian Flores did.

yes, but if you are an expert in building GPSs and how they function, but not a Kit Carson who can traverse the land by environmental factors...

As has previously been explained. DVOA is hot garbage. Especially when it comes to apportioning credit/blame among individual players. you cannot...

Aaaand what was Adam Gase’s offense predicated on? Screens and bombs downfield and neglecting the intermediate routes.

Good to see. Both sides are being reasonable. I remember previous Dolphins FOs would try to screw the player down for hometown discounts/risk of...

To save some time and effort here are some old threads that discuss Lazor’s playcalling and how it effected Tannehill’s performance under...

Roster wise, we had some good pieces, but we never really had them going well at the same time. Landry has been the second most divisive player...

If you’ve read the book, and I have, what cbrad is doing is the opposite. Most of the ways to lie with stats involve truncating the data, hiding...

No one has the data to say if RT17 had more or less ‘jailbreak’ pass rush pressures than average. Without the data it is speculation. I believe he...

The problems with Miami’s OL when Tannehill was QB here is a different problem to what the problem is in Tennessee. If you watch a Jets game...

Let’s look at Tennessee, comparing them to Miami. An example of a pre-season...

It almost sounds like a sting. Apparently the Bengals were watching the Pats’ guys the whole time, and let them video proceedings for a whole...

The basic test is, assuming he can continue at this pace for the rest of 2019, is to follow it up with another 100+ passer rating year in 2020....

It’s significant that in year 2 when the coaches stopped trying to throw deep to Wallace and used him in a short area that he and Tannehill were a...

Many of us here complained that Philbin and Gase tried to pound a square peg into a round hole with the way they treated Tannehill. i.e. trying to...

That’s the kind of play that inspires your teammates. I love the tenacity and persistence there, no one would have complained if he gave up on the...

I had the misfortune to be forced to use that when I was a student too. The more modern versions are probably better but the version I learned on...

I thought it was wrong to let Vick re-enter the league after his convictions. However the decision has been made, my getting angry won’t change...

I think it is more that the Titans are letting him be free and to play his own style of football. From a playcalling perspective Philbin and Gase...

If I remember Carmen’s position correctly it is that coaching is more important than players. So if Flores can get this group of misfits to 6-10...

Like a lot of things Tannehill related there is an awful lot of good and bad happened at the same time in Miami. One example is Lazor refusing to...

I have been a long time supporter of Tannehill here, but that is an excellent point. He has to convert this stretch of 6 good games to 10 good...

And remember folks, the Dolphins are paying him $5 Million this year to put up those numbers.

Having built predictive models and used predictive models this is bunkum. 1) passer rating is not a stat, it’s a blend of passing attempts,...