Separate names with a comma.
It's cherry picking if you select a smaller subset of available data than satisfies some criteria to answer a question. For example, if your...
"Ready to take the biggest jump" should be Tua since he's furthest away from elite status. It's really hard for Burrow to go from #2 passer rating...
Year 1 for Flores was completely expected in terms of win totals. Vegas had us winning 4.5 games at season start. The only impressive year...
"Choosing what's relevant".. yeah you're still cherry picking. And the entire purpose of z-scores is to get AWAY from rankings!!! You don't rank...
Do you just make up stuff? I doubt you even bothered to do the calculations. Here are his z-scores from 2001-2009 (he had only 19 attempts in...
Two corrections: 1) z-scores don't tell you how well a QB in the past would have performed today, or vice versa. They tell you how well they...
Well regarding Tua.. first of all I'm glad we have an offensive minded coach and got Tyreek Hill. Tua's in his 3rd year and statistically it's...
Dude.. you literally have median and mean backwards. Both have mathematical definitions. The median in that case is 10.5 and the mean is 12. You...
There were 107 QBs or players in 2002 that threw at least 1 pass and 45 QBs that threw at least 100 passes that year. You're going to just ignore...
Dude.. you can't redefine "average passer rating" to be the passer rating of the #16th ranked QB. There is literally a mathematical definition of...
Like literally calculate the mean of the team passer ratings (so all QBs) in 2002. I gave you the link. Actually it's 80.2531.. was...
That's not how you calculate relative performance. Rankings obscure actual differences in ability because the difference between ranks N and N+1...
Yes I agree, once again what you say is total rubbish. Matt Hasselbeck's career z-score is 0.0168. In other words he's about as prototypical an...
Yes I agree your statement is rubbish. That's what the "this" in your sentence refers to right? All I'm doing is showing the actual statistics of...
Adjusted for era Brady was very good from the outset. Statistically, he was a well above average QB early on who became elite later. Brady...
He knew that it led to higher completion percentage. What he didn't realize is that at least on average that stat answers the question he was...
No, he asked whether short passes were "easier", not "easier to throw". Since the goal is to complete the pass (not "throw it" per se), whether...
Of course they are, at least if the goal is to complete the pass. It's well known statistically that there's a negative linear relationship...
We weren't beating KC either. Also, if Burrow can overcome 9 sacks against the Titans and then outscore KC there's no way we were going to beat...
Yeah don't get me wrong. He deserves credit for that. He also deserves blame for not taking them deeper in the playoffs. Seriously you should go...
Finally a bad playoff game? Ask Titans fans. They blame him for 3 consecutive years of failing to go further in the playoffs. Even I'll admit year...
Yes Rodgers has choked many times. However, unlike Tannehill, Rodgers has played really well many times when his team didn't. Every QB that plays...
Brady has won 7 SBs and Rodgers 1. Both performed subpar in this year's playoffs but both have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to play well...
Nope. I said the QB has to be able to overcome adversity "often enough", not "always". Acting like I said always is a strawman, especially since...
There was nothing logical about Key's argument, and it was full of attempted hyberbole (i.e., creating a strawman). Saying you'll almost...
Have to admit I'm surprised anyone hired him. Hopefully he doesn't repay the Steelers with a racial discrimination lawsuit.
Cinci is nothing like Tennessee. Like I said, Tennessee truly had a complete team otherwise. There were no holes in that team except Tannehill....
It's not chicken or egg. In 3-4 playoff games you'll almost be forced to overcome adversity because of the strength of your opponents. That's not...
Is the goal to make the playoffs or is the goal to win the SB? Answer that first. If the goal is to win the SB, then as I've pointed out for many...
Yeah 3 years later the Tannehill naysayers were proven right. In all 3 years Tannehill was one of the main reasons the Titans couldn't progress in...
If McDaniel can give us a good offense centered around Tua, he'll be a fantastic hire. No need to get a new QB then. But.. and this is the big...
No one can give you that kind of answer. Not a stats guy and not a football expert. If we could you wouldn’t see the huge percentage of busts by...
Given what you actually wrote the “never” is implied. You didn’t say they “don’t always” apply. You just asserted I was wrong. Had you actually...
Nothing I'd really call a stat. Black box "stats" exist but you can't tell what they're doing. Anyway, I'm fine with you dismissing RBWR. It's a...
You clearly didn't read/remember/care what I wrote about Tua, otherwise why act like I didn't say that. Worse, you continued to act like I didn't...
Key phrase in what you quoted is: "based on performance thus far". By now you know I mean z-score ratings. The average z-score rating of a QB that...
If you really read through my posts you would have never posted what you just did. I said repeatedly that Tua needs a good OL. So why act like I...
You didn’t read the discussion. Topic jumped to something far more general than Tua. I said multiple times you need to give Tua a good OL....
Priority #1 in FA for me is to get a top WR. With Waddle that would give us the receiving corps we need regardless of who we have at QB.
That's a more interesting question than some might realize. In principle you always go for prediction. That's how theories are tested in science:...
Yes that's in principle the best method because it's close to a controlled experiment. The issue there however is small sample size.
3 out of 11 were bottom 10. And yes that's correct you need average. That's my argument all along. We just need average, we don't need more than...
I'm only in response mode, so I'm done if the others are too. Up to them.
You should move it there each time the debate appears. You know you can't stop the debate from appearing because we're legitimately in a...
No you didn't get it. I haven't looked at the win probability graphs but almost certainly those 3 plays changed win probability more than most...
No you're missing the point. Just like I predicted you're telling me the game "hinged" on X, Y or Z. This is not an accurate way of looking at...
Lots of points here. 1. Yes, stats are far superior in estimating how much of an effect a given play has on the probability of winning the game....
That I can agree with. In fact that's closer to the blueprint used by SB winners — don't spend too many resources on OL, but still try to field at...
You don't need to understand the microstructure of things to understand phenomena at the macro level. For example, you don't need to consider all...
Yeah easier said than done. Resource constraints are real. And given that you can't always just find an elite QB you obviously prioritize...
No one ever disputed that it's much better to improve every position. That's obvious. Statistically almost every QB performs a lot better with...
In a competitive market (if you exclude rookie contracts) money tells you a lot about priorities. NE is actually quite the exception in being able...
So Eli and Wilson didn't win SBs behind terrible OLs? You're saying this never happened? Or is that real football history? The pressure Eli...
For a QB like Tua OL is very important. Thing is, QBs like Tua generally don't win SBs, at least not the Tua we've seen so far. I guarantee you...
Yeah like I said that's true this year. But if you're giving credence to those rankings, then use them and you'll see that on average the OL for...
PFF had them ranked overall 20 this year (stats say they were worse than that btw.. so I'd go by stats like PBWR), but sticking to PFF there were...
Sure stats are wrong, PFF is wrong, but you know much better than everyone else.
lol give it up guys. The stats say what they say. Hey if you'd rather use PFF go for it. From 2010-2021 the average PFF grade for the SB winning...
This year yes. But on average not so much if you look at SB winners.
Looks like you're right:...
You have a link? I'm not finding this on the internet. Saying he wasn't hired because of the lawsuit isn't the same thing as filing a hiring...
Yeah, but what the stats we were talking about show is that the improvement doesn't affect win% anywhere near as much as improvement at the QB and...
Yeah, but he won the SB with a worse OL than he had this year. This year KC had a very good OL, in 2019 just average. Same with Roethlisberger:...
Unless you just won the SB everyone wants to do better. So saying those elite QBs want better is an empty statement because that applies to...
All this says is the Pro Bowl is a joke. That the stats are so similar shows that both are at the moment average QBs, not that somehow Mac Jones...
Obviously. Since you think Montana was nothing more than a "game manager" it makes total sense you'd disregard the clear evidence of what elite...
I only spoke of not needing a good OL. Don't create a strawman (you often do this). Wilson, Watson, Burrow have proven it, Mahomes can obviously...
No one here ever suggested that. But many elite QBs won't need a good OL, that much you can say. Almost every non-elite QB will need a decent OL...
Insightful interview. McDaniel has a very logical approach towards football. It's hard to see how this guy will fail from a preparation and scheme...
Actually that's a good point because the year-to-year correlation for a bunch of passing stats is just at around that 0.5 level. That's true for...
What you posted wouldn't answer the question. Grouping into buckets removes important information for assessing the relationship. However, you're...
You'd have to categorize stats based on how much of a team stat or QB stat they are and then compare correlation to win% within each category. For...
Note they don't tell you what the correlation to win% is. That's the first thing to ask because if that's not much higher than with EPA what's the...
Waddle is a clear #1 and then there's a huge gap. The rest are replaceable. We need an infusion of talent on offense, most importantly at QB and...
Don't forget, Flores names the Texans in his lawsuit, claiming they fired David Culley due to racial reasons, not because of his 4-13 record lol....
Glad to hear that. Have to give Tua the best chance to succeed. Not sure he will, but there's no other viable option at QB next year (unless we...
Looking at the correlations, the percent of MLV variance explained by Average Release Time is 17% while the percent of MLV variance explained by...
If this is true we hit the jackpot. Our defense is decent, our offense has been bad the last 20 years. Really hope to see a good offense finally.
I think a really good coach will overcome a bad owner and GM (similar to an elite QB overcoming bad surrounding cast), especially since the HC has...
I kinda like that he looks like a nerd lol.
Wow.. I think we did relatively well here. Who knows how he turns out but this is a decent gamble. Also shows HC candidates aren't turning away...
I'm not so sure really. Yes you see all those shorter low velocity balls by Goff but you also see a bunch of zingers. Mayfield also has a good...
Maximum Launch Velocity quantifies "arm strength" a lot better than what many scouts look at because most WRs in the NFL never go far enough down...
lol give it up. First you said the NFL had nothing to do with it. That's like saying if you start a war and the other side defends themselves from...
Yes Trump was the primary reason for the USFL folding. He was the one who led the charge to change the USFL schedule from spring to fall with the...
No they didn't. https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/ct-nfl-jerry-richardson-panthers-owner-sell-team-20171221-story.html Interesting tidbit at...
Here's something else to remember: https://operations.nfl.com/inside-football-ops/nfl-operations/integrity-of-the-game/ It takes 3/4 of all...
It's a lot simpler than that. Rodgers alone makes us a perennial playoff team and top 5 in odds to win the SB. That would have been true anytime...
Based on the last 20 years, the expectation should be more worst-case than best-case lol. Anyway, one day we'll get lucky. Just hope I'm still...
Terrible choices. Trump destroyed the USFL lol. So maybe if you want the NFL to go bankrupt that might be a good choice. Elon is great at...
You think so? I think it's having the opposite effect. I had respect for Flores before these accusations. Now I have no respect. I also think...
They're saying the first barrier, at least for Flores' lawsuit against the Dolphins, is the arbitration clause:...
Well one thing we can all agree on is we'd be better off if the Dolphins had a competent owner.
No it's 2022 where we're not going to be cowed by false accusations of racism as easily as in 2020. At least that's my prediction.
This isn't 2020. That BLM and cancel culture thing hit a peak back then. It's slowly but certainly starting to wane, as most movements do. It's...
No it looks like his main target was Minnesota. Either he gets the HC job there or he goes back to Michigan....
Washington Redcoats lol
You think it's racist to have one of our top attack helicopters named the "Apache"? Naming something after Indians isn't racist except in the...
They shouldn't have changed the name. Social pressure like that ebbs and flows. Just wait it out. Washington Redskins has been the name since...
Flores' career is over in the NFL. What idiot would hire him knowing there's a good chance he'll just turn around and sue the ownership? Can't...
Trying to win every battle can lead to losing the war. There are many examples of successful strategic retreats in actual warfare. Again, if the...
I'm not even sure this is true. There's nothing saying you can't decide on who you want to hire before the last interview. The Giants were still...
We would've taken Burrow if we had the #1 pick. Tua is the guy they wanted otherwise, but even this FO wouldn't have messed Burrow up.
Based on the reports so far I'm siding with Ross. I want some SB wins, Ross apparently does too, and based on reports he was willing to do what is...
Where's the evidence this had anything to do with racism? At least from what Galant posted I don't see it (unless I missed something).
If Ross offered to pay Flores to lose, I have a lot more respect for Ross. At least he understands you have to tear stuff down sometimes before...
LOL.. hilarious response It "feels" the same as before Galant: Captain Ross doesn't know which way to steer the ship.
Same thing happened when KC played Cinci late in the regular season. They bolt out to a lead and give it away in the 4th for 34-31 loss. KC needs...
Some very successful people are hard to work with. Personally I don't care as long as they can deliver. Among the HC candidates Harbaugh is one of...
Chalk it up to more incompetence on the part of Gase. He doesn't even know what kind of statistical analysis to trust (IF that was based on...
Stats tell you the exact opposite. EPA for running the ball on 3rd and long is almost always negative with the only exception for QB scrambles. So...
Yeah to be clear the analytics revolution that's slowly winning over GMs and HCs is specific to situations where there's a great deal of evidence...
Every person can make up their own opinions on how much X vs. Y matters on some outcome. That's easy. The real test is how well you can predict...
Let him make whatever argument he wants. As far as I'm concerned what the stats reveal is relative importance. There's no question the OL is...
So when I posted before, specifically in response to your post (see post #132), that we should spend high picks on OL and RB you took that as...
We're going in circles. You're saying (correctly) that we don't have an elite QB so we need a good OL. I'm saying the chances of winning a SB...
While we're on the subject of Ross, I know he gets panned around here for being an idiot (and I join that chorus), but I think the truth is...
Great idea! Except that it fails once you realize Ross is in charge. Shall we revisit the tanking strategy? lol.
I disagree. There are some famous cases where teams deliberately tanked to win a championship. In MLB the Cubs and Astros did that. And Cleveland...
Very good against the Raiders (PBWR = 73.9%): https://sports.yahoo.com/bengals-vs-titans-4-things-115515477.html?src=rss#:~:text=The Bengals were...
Yeah there's a flaw in this logic. It's true that the more you "average" the less variance there will be. That's called the sampling distribution...
Sure you can. Once you have any performance metric for that line, there will be an average for that metric. That's just logic. For example, if you...
DolphinGreg? His posts are very different IMO, if you look at some by searching. I think Dolfanalyst was formerly The Guy, at least going by his...
OK, if 53.5 is 31st, then assuming a normal distribution with 32 teams the average z-score would be –1.7 (based on 1000 simulations). That's over...
Can't go by rankings because so many teams have similar percentages near the mean. The average PBWR in 2020 was 57.4% and 53% isn't overly bad:...
OK thanks. Well now I'm getting -0.267 which is still different from the -0.46 you got. Anyway, if that's the case I'd say this is a reason to be...
Well.. the reason I asked is because when I take your "EPA" column divided by the "PLAYS" column, i.e., EPA per play (if that's what that's...
One of the greatest ever. I'm not only happy he finally retired, but that he retired after winning a SB with a team not named NE. He really helped...
Wait what? That doesn't make sense. Can you post PFF's pass blocking grades for each year? Either PFF's rankings make no sense or there's some...
No they didn't. They were 1-9 without Watson the first year, while he was 3-3 so that was an immediate improvement. Then they went 11-5 and 10-5...
It should also be noted he won a SB with only an average OL before they made those moves. KC has an elite QB so they have the luxury of pouring...
Why settle for a non-elite QB? This really shouldn't be about what's best for Tua, even if that's the aim of this thread. What's best for the team...
For Tua I agree you need to give him better pass protection. We should prioritize OL and RB in the draft and WR in FA (much better pickings...
I think Chase certainly helped a lot, but let's not forget that the greatest improvement in passer rating tends to take place from year 1 to year...
Yes the OL was horrendous vs. Buffalo. And no I never said stats and analytics give you a complete picture. However, to think that somehow what...
Stats give you tons of context. Every adjustment for era, or showing performance relative to expected in that down, distance and game situation is...
Yeah good you did that, but you're still relying on PFF grades for QB and WR. Ideally you only use stats to estimate the relative variances in...
Apparently we were at 55% after week 1 and a lot of teams were worse: [MEDIA] Adding 4 extra plays in there isn't going to change much....
This is where stats start to become more reliable than humans. So many fans of teams say they're the "worst by far" in X or Y. But fans generally...
Only thing I'd note is that the argument should be made from actual stats instead of PFF grades. Best stats I've seen for OL are ESPN's PBWR and...
There have been quite a few actually. 2011 Giants might be the best example. Ranked 31st overall. Seattle also had a really bad OL, including bad...
Hard to say exactly where the balance should be, on average of course. But one thing is clear: the NFL is moving more and more towards an...
The analytics say your best use of resources to win a SB is to build a well above average passing offense and a well above average pass defense....
That's interesting lol. So QB and WR alone (with OL) are statistically significant, but put in the interaction term and they no longer are. That...
Keep in mind the cost would be enormous. We'd probably have to give up the equivalent of at minimum 3 and possibly 4 1st round picks for this...
Only comments I'd make here: 1) Is "team" receiving grade a sum of individual WR grades? If so, then it's not removing correlations between...
For those averages the correlation to passer rating is -0.1068, and importantly the p-value is 0.5235 which means that the correlation isn't...
If you're searching for a stat that suggests what should be improved, look at average time between snap and either throwing the ball or being put...
That huge difference between Q1-Q3 and Q4 is mostly due to small sample size. The article is from Nov 24th, so maybe Tua had only ~50 passing...
OK, no question they made a coding error. The graph below is impossible: [IMG] An r^2 of 0.017 for passer rating translates to a correlation of...
In terms of air yards, 7.73% of Tua's passes traveled 20+ yards, which is 29th percentile among the 38 QBs that had 150+ passing attempts (150...
I learned long time ago not to let the Dolphins affect my life in any important way while still remaining a loyal fan of the team. It makes no...
Credit for KC's success goes to a lot of people, especially Andy Reid. Overall the QB gets a minority of the credit for win%. But to suggest win%...
No we didn't. We got your point. You've been saying the same thing for many years. Our point is that your point is ridiculous! At least that's...
After watching what Mahomes has done now for several years, and watching the amazing QB talent on display last night, you still think Mahomes...
That's not true. Brady is a master of dink and dunk and isn't mobile in the sense of Mahomes/Rodgers/Allen, and he's had more success than anyone....
Both deserved to win, but one's got to lose. I still think what Mahomes did with 13 seconds left is for me the tiebreaker in terms of who...
10 out of the 17 teams they played didn't have very good QBs. Here are the 10 teams I'm talking about: Dolphins 2x Washington Houston...
Yeah and his offenses were near worst in the NFL: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm Pre-Allen his offenses were ranked...
Wait.. you're talking about Philbin? Don't forget Philbin was OC for GB from 2007, a full year before Aaron Rodgers started. So the OC that...
The one that went off the receiver's hands wasn't his fault. The first INT was his fault as he threw it too late and in the wrong place (first...
We'll see what he does. I predict it will be one of the other 4. btw.. the Bills have the best defense in the NFL by points allowed so he's not...
Tannehill was not "good". He was arguably the primary reason the Titans are no longer in the playoffs. 3 INTs (2 of which were primarily...
Statistically the only exception this year would be Allen if he wins it, not Garoppolo. The average z-score (standard deviation above/below the...
All these questions about who was primarily responsible for which pick aren't as important as seeing systematic improvement after you change GMs...
The ones that win SBs without great QBs (or a QB that played great in the SB winning year) are the exception not the rule. In general you need the...
Compare pre-Harbaugh to with-Harbaugh and post-Harbaugh in SF. In the 4 years prior to Harbaugh the average rank by points scored was 24. In the...
Seriously?? You're comparing Tua to Aaron Rodgers now? C'mon man. When you can post reports (even rumors) of Rodgers' teammates saying stuff like...
Yeah, that's a valid statistical approach (pending details about how to calculate "expected"). The issue here is far more basic: TDK is saying you...
It's not that they literally can't win the SB (obviously), it's that the probability of winning VASTLY decreases. How many such cases can you name...
More failure of logic on your part. No one said that in every broadcast from the first time football was ever broadcast that in every single game...
You don't want to see evidence I'm right, fine. But there's tons of evidence IF you bother to google. And regarding the rest of your post, no one...
Would love Jim Harbaugh. His defenses were elite, like top 3 level in 3 out of 4 years. He'll also need to find the right QB, but even with Kap he...
Just do a google search. After almost every game they talk like that. Same in MLB with one pitcher outplaying another one. I just did a google...
Dude it's not just me. I'd even wager it's ONLY you arguing this. People who don't rely on stats that much and primarily look at game film also...
No, it just means you can evaluate individuals in a team sport even if they're not directly playing each other. If we follow your "logic" that...
Burrow outplayed Tannehill. Burrow had to deal with far worse pressure than Tannehill and played OK (though not great). Tannehill, dealing with...
I don't think they have the cap space for that. More to the point.. WE should be suitors!
Titans are like the 2002-2003 Dolphins with Ricky Williams and that great defense. We had everything except the QB. One day Titans fans will...
Just to cheer things up a bit (sarcasm).. we're not getting another opportunity like that for quite awhile. This team has many good pieces in...
Burrow has pretty poor pocket presence I must say. Still.. what he did this year is amazing. He ended only 2nd to Aaron Rodgers in passer rating....
Yup.. once again: Tannehill can't overcome adversity, and unless you get really lucky you're not winning a SB with such a QB. Basically it's...
I HOPE we're not married to him long term. The worst thing would be if Tua shows some progress but not enough and we keep him. Say Tua goes up to...
You really think that? Don't forget it's dumbo Ross we're talking about here that has to fire Grier. No, I think Grier has convinced Ross the...
Agree with the first part: you give the people you hire the power to implement their system. I don't agree with the 2nd part: stability is a...
The original article is far more interesting. It tells of stuff I didn't hear about before (of course this is Omar Kelly so who knows lol):...
I fear another "average win%" season. Just looking at that schedule that's what it seems like: we can beat half but might lose to half. The next...
If Lawrence doesn't vastly improve in year 2 he is a bust. Really good QBs will overcome adversity. Also, he has some serious accuracy issues even...
There are actual research papers published on how predictive Wonderlic is on a variety of things since it's used in a range of occupations. And at...
Technology isn't advanced enough to do that one, and probably won't be for a very long time. Still need humans for that. Best option during a game...
There's no official "injury" stat from the NFL for whether a starting QB should have started a game or not, but Football Outsiders tracks whether...
The Arizona game is so far the only game where Tua "won" the game like elite QBs do. That was encouraging. The problem is we didn't see any games...
All I know is with SF winning we are now picking at best 26th in the draft. Unbelievable.. thanks Grier! Oh, and after Cinci winning we are now...
Good catch. Yes, the correlation is 0.67 across NFL history (from 1966 so SB era), and for a direct comparison to their 2018-2021 range it's...
People interested in how machine learning research works in practice should read that. It's showing exactly what I said: machine learning models...
Main issue with Daboll is that he was OC for some of the worst offenses year after year until he got Allen. Then one of the best:...
Just a short background on some of these "advanced" stats. The concept of EPA = expected points added, which tells us based on historical data...
I'd go even further. Just have everything called from a command center with refs doing nothing more regarding penalties than communicating the...
THE problem is Ross. But asking whether Tua is "a" problem is for me the same as asking whether he is "the" solution at QB. QB is too important to...
Right, but it's total speculation as to what would occur. Can't just assert passer rating is being inflated because of his air yards. Certainly...
You do realize that there are 4 components to passer rating. Two of them are completion percentage and Y/A. So inflating completion percentage...
That's a decision that should be made after 2022, not now. There's no question there's value in fixing OL, RB and getting another good WR this...
Both points and rating are a result, not an action per se. Points is more affected by surroundings than passer rating (e.g., passer rating doesn't...
The ratings argument is actually the best argument that Herbert > Tua so far because the difference is now statistically significant. Until the...
Minimum 9-8. This team is half built and there are no excuses for a losing season.
Oh.. because you saw his effect on Tannehill's rating for a long time. That was statistically significant for awhile. Not sure if it still is (I'd...
I don't understand your question. It's generally been common for people (including coaches) to argue play action success is related to either...
It generally doesn't. That doesn't mean there are no exceptions. This is a case where coaches and players are wrong, and demonstrably so.
Henry is probably an exception to the rule, but the rule is that the correlation is near zero between play action success (measured by PA yards...
Dungy didn't reach the SB before getting fired from Tampa. You're right about Reid. Vermeil is another: went to the SB in 1980 with Philly but won...
21 SB winning coaches were first-time coaches, and 13 were not. So 62% were first time coaches.
Saban won't win without getting the right QB. That's what did him in last time, making the wrong call on Brees (or at least our medical personnel...
Consistency is important unless you're consistently mediocre, which has been the history of the Dolphins the last 20 years. The worst is on...
They're not going to blow it up this time. We actually have a lot of key players to build on. Also, no one is going to convince Ross/Grier that...
Vegas thought we'd win 4.5 in 2019 and we won 5. And this year Vegas thought we'd win 9 and we won 9. Clearly the expectation by observers that...
So if you admit the HC isn't going to tank, and the players aren't, then you're admitting your theory makes no sense.
How did he impact the QB conversation? Who knows what exactly happened (see all the different reports of who wanted which QB), but there's no...
It's a plausible theory only for at most 1 season IMO. In this case, it makes no sense. Look at how the roster changed based on who Flores wanted...
Umm.. that sounds like a conspiracy theory Key lol. I don't think anyone hires a coach over a 3-year period to "tank" and hire Harbaugh. If we...
That's not true. We ended up ranked 6th in defense and 3rd in takeaway/giveaway ratio in 2020 under Flores. Regarding top 10 rankings, the most...
lol.. history shows us we're screwed WHEN he has a plan in place.
Ross has purgatory for Dolphins fans already planned for the post-Ross period. NFL owners already approved a succession plan post-Ross for Bruce...
Ultimately it comes down to winning. If we make the playoffs this year guaranteed Flores stays despite not playing the schmoozing game. And you...
Flores going to the Texans would be hilarious. Watson wanted to come here because of Flores, now Flores goes to Watson lol. Jets I'm not afraid...
Well.. the firing did accomplish one thing: it brought some life back to these boards LOL (for the wrong reasons I know..)
THE problem is Ross. However, Tua could be "a" problem. Those last 2 games soured me on him a bit. I'm still fine with building around him next...
What a mess. Hey, maybe we get lucky and this turns into a repeat of that Tony Dungy firing. He also rebuilt Tampa Bay with a great defense,...
Wow! Well.. whether you watched the Dolphins game or not you really should have watched the Chargers vs. Raiders game ending. They go into OT,...
My only prediction was we'd finally have back-to-back winning seasons since 2003:...
Great win! Don't care what the optics are, this is the first time since 2003 that we have back-to-back winning seasons. Flores definitely deserves...
The entire season counts. As impressive as the win streak was that's how bad the losing streak was. Overall people expected us to be a possible...
Vegas expected us to win 9 this year: https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-win/?y=2021&sa=nfl&t=win&o=t
The worst is being somewhere in that gray area not knowing whether we have the right foundation and should keep building on it or whether it's...
I looked it up. In the NFL the Bengals haven't won in 30 years pending this year, Detroit in 30 years and we're 3rd worst at 21 years. Bengals...
I'm still watching and rooting for us to win. It would be the first time since 2003 we'd have back-to-back winning seasons if we win. That would...
So you don't think the rule changes had any effect on the difficulty of completing passes. Just looking up rule changes in the mid 90's to 2010...
No, just more difficult given the rules, and thus more valuable when comparing across eras.
You said I'm getting close to TDK's point. That implies the rest of the team is "most responsible" (it's the only way you'd ever get to saying...
I just gave you examples of how you can't make that argument by pointing out the massive difference in passer rating and offensive production when...
Not at all. z-scores tell you how good someone (or a team) was relative to the competition. It doesn't tell you on an absolute scale how good the...
That's a fair point. I should have said "helps explain" rather than "explain", and "partially captured in the stats". The correlations aren't high...
First, that's 2021 not 2020, and you were talking about 2020. Second thats sorted by yards, not by passer rating. Passing yards has a correlation...
Herbert in 2020 was 12th in the league (sort by passer rating) with a passer rating of 98.3:...
It shows why it's necessary to adjust stats for era. You didn't do that which is why the stats you quoted from Montana look similar to merely...
Rules have changed over time. The rule changes in 1978 had a tremendous impact on the game and basically started the league down the path of...
Holy crap! You're calling Joe Montana a "game manager"?? Joe Montana was an elite QB and statistically the 2nd most efficient QB in NFL history...
Not sure what there is to disagree with. We're talking about Watson here, not Tua or most other QBs. Watson already proved he can play at an elite...
That's actually captured in the stats. Tua's "bad throw percentage" is 16.5% which is close to the league average of 16.9%, while his "on target...
I've never used passer rating in any other way. So this was a circular discussion.
You're the one that made it black and white saying passer rating was an "empty" metric. It's clearly not. It captures QB ability to a good degree....
No one knows how much of passer rating is due to the surroundings, but when you see the massive change in fortunes of an offense when they change...
Yeah that's why I'm ambivalent on Watson. I'd be fine acquiring him and also fine going with Tua for one more prove-it year. It's really bad the...
It's VERY hard to replicate that #1 defense by points allowed for 4 years in a row. No other team in NFL history ever did that. But there are many...
Nope, they were one of the best: Wilson had a 101.2 rating when league average was 86.0. And note that passing efficiency stats are what correlate...
I can see the argument about Watson elevating the WR position. However, I think it's clear he needs a good RB. We saw very clearly that Watson...
That IS what he's been saying for 3 years straight. Don't look at one post and ignore 3 years of consistent posting. And not one person believes a...
We don't have infinite resources. Sure if you can improve every position do so. But if you have to prioritize you prioritize RB and WR with...
Oh I read what you wrote I repeat the reply again. You repeatedly ignore the importance of the QB. You started this discussion by asking whether...
I already showed you what his ratings were in 8 of those 12 losses. Those were elite level ratings. Also, in 2018 he was sacked a league leading...
That's the great thing about it. Our run block win rate is fairly good. It was at #9 a week ago:...
If we get Watson you improve WR and RB. You can ignore OL. He has proven he can play elite with as bad an OL as it gets (pass protection wise)....
Over/Under on how many more years till we win a SB? lol.. Lots more such offseasons in the future!
Yes I repeat my reply. By the way, I've been telling you what I wrote for ages. It still doesn't seem to register. You consistently ignore one of...
We all know the team matters. What you need to accept is that the QB matters. It sometimes happens that an average QB wins a SB. It's not often...
Then again if Grier has one more fantastic draft like last year that might not be so true anymore. Question is whether Waddle, Phillips and...
The "bulk" of responsibility to carry a team doesn't fall on the QB. However, no other single player has as much influence or responsibility. An...
Teams with great QBs usually consistently win and make the playoffs year after year. It's one of the best predictors of success. Peyton Manning...
Probably worth pointing out some statistics about ref bias. There is a well known ref bias against away teams, and it varies for different types...
The only QB we'd replace Tua with next year would be Watson, assuming legal issues are resolved. Otherwise, I think most likely you'll see Flores,...
Tannehill was throwing the ball well. Tua wasn't, except for a few drives. This wasn't one of those weather dominated games like that Buffalo-NE...
It's not impossible. The team didn't suddenly get a huge infusion of talent when the win streak started.
Losing to Jacksonville and Atlanta was totally inexcusable. That wasn't a lack of veteran leadership issue. That was a coaching issue. It's the...
The future of the Dolphins doesn't look as dim though. Flores can clearly build a good defense. We have massive cap room so either we use a large...
Actually you do. Look at the QBs drafted top 5, say since 2000: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb Vick, (David) Carr,...
Yeah I'd be equally upset. Let me ask it to you this way (and note there's no "right" or "wrong" here). Suppose your team plays in the SB and you...
Yeah.. still don't get it. I'd be equally upset regardless of draft position even if we could have gotten someone better.
Regardless of who was right or wrong (and note that it's easier to be right by predicting the QB will not pan out because that's usually what...
Titans weren't behind in Foxboro in the 2nd half. They led 14-13. Same against Baltimore. Titans led all the way. A QB overcoming adversity...
Exactly. Tannehill had one full half of football to overcome what was a 4 point deficit and they ended up losing by 11. That's precisely what I'm...
Yeah, but keep in mind what I've said repeatedly: it's hard to actually win the SB without requiring the QB to overcome adversity in at least one...
This year yes. Not in 2019, he was elite then, and not in 2020 where he was way above average. But in 2021 he's a below average QB.
Yeah, no one should be arguing that we would somehow be better with Tannehill this year. Even after today his overall rating is 86.3 when league...
Statistically most QBs improve from year 2 to year 3, and plateau at around 3-4. Some take even longer. Statistically the most impressive QB in...
History shows some QBs can make that leap in year 3 or 4. So you can't give up too early. But you also shouldn't wait too long either. Oh, and...
Burrow is elite. It's one of those exhibit #1 when someone says it's not a good idea to "tank".
No the OL was a lot better today than earlier in the season. This was mostly on Tua. He had far too many bad throws. And there are quite a few QBs...
Burrow might end up beating Rodgers for the top passer rating this year. He's now at 108.3 for the year compared to Rodgers' 110.8. The guy is...
Can't write up a summary of the game without mentioning Tua. If there's one primary reason we lost today it was him. Not good. We need a QB that...
DAMN! This is not how a playoff team plays, even in a loss. Loss is mostly on Tua. Before today Tua was doing fine for a year 2 QB with a 94...
Absolutely, and even though Tua isn't a finished product yet (or at least he better not be!) he's shown more than enough to warrant at least one...
Playing the odds it's probably better to do it the other way: pick OL high in the draft and get your RB in FA, unless there's a great RB in round...
Fine, but at least stop suggesting that what you find is the ONLY way we can get in. It's just inaccurate. And that's something you should care...
You can't try out all possibilities. There are far too many. That's why your claims about the ONLY ways the Dolphins can get into the playoffs...
Yeah this isn't that simple guys. You HAVE to use a simulator here. You can't go to a site like ESPN: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine...
You know what's interesting? That with-Henry vs. without-Henry difference is seen not only on offense but on defense, except that the Titans got...
Yeah I'm good at that lol.
I've never seen any statistical evidence for the "revenge game". People like to remember the times where it seems like that happened, but then...
Tannehill is the last thing we need to worry about. Without Henry, Tannehill has been one of the worst QBs in the league this year with an abysmal...
Playing around with that playoff simulator it seems more likely we'll play the Titans again in the first round than any other team. The 2nd most...
Yeah.. I changed my tune immediately after the Ravens game as you can go back and see. Basically said that totally changes the math because it was...
League average has actually gone down tremendously lately. It's actually a bit abnormal. It's now at 90.8. So technically Tua's rating was a tiny...
I pointed this out before, but ESPN's Run Block Win Rate (a decent attempt at an OL measure for run blocking) had us at #9 a week ago:...
This year we have no other choice but to hope we are a repeat of the Ravens 2000 team. But damn you got to increase the probabilities, and...
No coincidence obviously. But to win the SB it's almost certainly going to take a QB that can overcome adversity, which clearly Tannehill cannot....
OK first of all COVID is a disease, and it is by definition because they'd identified the pathogen. Second, it's a bit tricky to directly compare...
Nice win! Just had a chance to watch the game — was on a damn flight during it. Really glad to see our defense play like that. That's a top level...
I never defended CDC policy. I think they dropped the ball on all kinds of things, especially their back-and-forth messaging. Even doctors...
You just proved my point. Marc Siegel said this:...
You don't understand. You're not going to know what information to trust if you don't understand the underlying mechanisms. That's the root cause...
Take a look at those links. They're very good sources of information for the uninitiated. You're just making reflexive responses without knowing...
Proof you don't do actual scientific research. Wikipedia is a VERY good initial starting point for any heavily discussed topic in science. Doesn't...
It's implied that the research papers come AFTER wikipedia. Learn some reading comprehension or stop trolling.
There's tons of (reliable) information out there. If you're really serious about making an informed decision you need to understand the underlying...
He's done that at least once: last year vs. Arizona. It's the one game he really carried the team. So we know he can do it. But he needs to do it...
The calculus for the NFL comes down to money: they don't want to cancel games and lose money, but they also can't put themselves in a situation...
Rules are different for vaccinated and unvaccinated players:...
This is almost an understatement. The Bills play Atlanta and the Jets to end the season so likely 2 wins. If they lose to NE that puts them at...
Yes you did: https://thephins.com/threads/deshaun-watson.95855/page-2#post-3340110...
I can see all ending in victory too. Not sure how people can look at the glass as half empty right now. Just 6 weeks ago there was a flood of...
Well you correctly predicted I disagree. Now you just need to correctly predict my response and you have a cbrad simulator! EGAD! There's no...
Glad to hear that. But even for Tua supporters it's important to note that Tua needs to keep improving or he's not "the One". Obviously he needs...
It's pretty rare for a SB winner to be one-sided, so having an identity that says you're good at only one side of the ball is really bad....
It's worth noting that our OL problems have been squarely in pass protection, not run blocking, at least statistically. Statistically we have an...
Titans are in freefall (relatively speaking). Without Henry they're just average, and Tannehill is solidly below average this year. They also play...
Ha. 7-7. Great job Dolphins. Next up: 8-7. Titans also not playing well without Henry and there's no reason 9-7 isn't possible. Other than the...
7-7 coming up! Then 8-7, then we'll see lol.. but the goal is 14-7, the same score we won the SB by in the NFL's only Perfect Season!
There's no such thing as jinxing. None of us have influence over the game's outcome. I wish we did though. It would not only allow me to jinx the...
I was just thinking about the year Ohtani had in baseball as one of the best HR hitters and pitchers, simultaneously. That's not too dissimilar...
I didn't have fear of COVID before getting vaccinated and only got vaccinated when required (I work at a medical school and it's a requirement)....
If enough people got vaccinated we really wouldn't have to take all these precautionary measures. I also like how you say "like the Spanish flu",...
lol we still have 2 more days to lose more players to COVID. Doesn't matter. We're still beating the Jets. Need these guys (especially Waddle)...
I don't understand. What's the purpose of this? Teams that are not part of this program are otherwise NOT allowed to engage in "in-person and...
Also, while we're at it, the Jets have the worst defense in the NFL (by points allowed per game). They also have the worst pass defense (by passer...
One reason the spread isn't moving is because the Jets have the worst starting QB in the NFL: Zach Wilson. He has only one game with above average...
Computer models don't weight individual games more, but they do make assumptions about the probability of a given team winning any given matchup....
I don't think our momentum will be affected. We're playing the Jets next.
We don't have much of a running game anyway. We are tied with Houston for worst in the NFL at 3.3 Y/C so this isn't a big loss. We desperately...
No dude. There's such a thing called sample size, and 3 passing attempts have almost no effect on overall correlation. The absolute minimum sample...
Bills win in that case it looks like. Here are the tie-breaking rules: https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/ The...
LOL dude.. all last night showed was that when the wind blows too hard you can't pass the ball lol. Statistically it's clear as night and day:...
Buffalo winning yesterday would have been better for us because they beat us head-to-head in the WC race. Simple summary of playoff scenarios is:...
The main danger for us, after Buffalo losing yesterday, is being tied with Buffalo 10-7 at the end. That's the ONE result we can't have because...
Never seen a game where the defense KNOWS what the offense is going to do — run the ball on EVERY play except that one pass attempt lol — and they...
A lot of other QBs have done that this year. Murray, Wentz, Brady, Wilson, Prescott, Allen and Garoppolo have all had 4 consecutive games with...
Has anyone noticed we're now the 11st best defense by points allowed per game? We used to be 32nd for a long stretch. We've given up an average of...
HOW the OL is fixed is one of the most crucial things for Grier and Flores. If we can replicate some other teams (e.g., NE) and fix it through...
Agree, but it's worth keeping in mind that similarly "weak" teams have won the SB. The 2011 Giants actually had a negative point differential, a...
In other news SF lost and is at 6-6. We keep this up we might even win that draft position battle from the Waddle trade.
Yeah.. we're on the same side of this Tua argument, but that stat has to be dismissed. The average passer rating in 1984 was 76.1 while it's 91.4...
This is good evidence Tua is the type of QB that can overcome adversity, which is exactly the type we need. He's got such a poor surrounding cast...
It would be a lot less quiet with a lot of posts by posters we haven't seen in awhile if Tua played poorly. So quiet is a good thing.
Absolutely. We are the league's 2nd worst running team by Y/C (you want to use Y/C instead of total yards because teams run out the clock adding...
OK this is cool. After Burrow had an off day today this is how the 3 QBs from the 2020 draft stack up by passer rating so far this year: Burrow:...
I thought he was very accurate. WRs were dropping balls that went through both hands, or hit their helmet face-on lol.
lol.. Dolphins were 1-7, now 6-7 and looking likely to go 8-7 lol. Tua played well again. That's his 4th straight 100+ rating game. His rating...
Just want to point out it's essentially mathematically impossible to have a 5% chance after winning the next game and still have the same 5%...
How far can we go? Tua's slightly above average statistically right now behind a really bad OL and an equally bad running game (we have the 2nd...
Odds have really changed just in the last day or so after news came out that Jones might not play. Total points scored opened at 43.5 and is now...
Yeah, for betting against the spread the best algorithms are at around 56% correct. There's actually a contest among machine learning algorithms...
If you look at the remaining schedule for all the teams ahead of us (Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Colts, Browns, Steelers) it's pretty brutal,...
Just want to point out that if someone predicts around 67% correct with a very large sample size (ideally every game in the season) you're...
Let's wait and see how the season ends. If we end 9-8 or better we don't need another coach, and if Tua ends above average performance-wise...
They're defining "hit" as starting at least half of your playing career. Gaskin has started only 16 out of 44 possible games so Gaskin isn't an...
Not sure I agree Flores is "completely incapable of preparing a team" to start the season because 2020 really wasn't that bad: 2 of those 3 losses...
Dolphins currently have a 1 in 400 chance to win the SB, so highly unlikely obviously. Of course, that's still better than the 1000 to 1 odds the...
2021 is turning out to be a fantastic draft. It's really irrelevant what we gave up for Waddle. What matters is how many good players you get from...
Might as well keep track of this: after today Tua's rating is 94.7 and Herbert's is 96.5. It will be hilarious if Tua beats out Herbert in the end...
I really think we'll be 9-7 facing NE. Have to be sober about NE though, that's likely a loss for us if NE is playing for the #1 seed. But any...
Not sure what they were referring to, but Bills are still by far #1 in passer rating allowed. Carolina was 11th best by that measure before today....
btw.. nice little Tua stat: 3 games in a row with 100+ ratings, and his rating this year so far is 94.7, which is a tad above league average...
LOL.. I'm the clown? Listen, pointing out that someone is lying is not the same thing as lying yourself. Anyway, good you're not going to continue...
What a great game! All phases of the team played well, defense, ST and offense. We're not only on track now for 7-7, I think we can make 9-7 given...
LOL. You're the one lying. Seattle's OL was ranked 27th by PFF in 2013 (no good objective metrics, but that's what PFF says). Wilson was...
The Tua hype was as real as for any other highly hyped QB, so you can’t blame the FO for picking Tua high given their own internal projections....
OK well statistically it's unrealistic as I pointed out. The other thing is that reading many anti-Tua or lukewarm-Tua posters' comments I think...
Never seen it? Ever heard of Watson? In 2018 he was behind one of the worst OL in modern times, sacked 62 times (most in the league), and was...
That's an unrealistically high expectation. In the last 15 years, so since 2006 (the year after Rodgers was drafted), the only years where an...
I don't think your evaluation of a QB should be based on draft position. Even if he's undrafted, if he's merely average it doesn't decrease the...
Realistic = it’s too early to tell whether Tua is merely average or will end up producing at a sustained above average level. Why? Because no one...
You don't need to be impressed by Tua. I'm waiting to see what his stats look like at the end of the year myself. But you can't on one hand say...
Yeah I agree, but if Grier/Flores are smart they do that by hiring new OL coaches, not spending wildly on FA. We've had talent on OL before and...
Agree. We still need to draft a RB because Gaskin isn't cutting it, but the 2021 draft is shaping up pretty well. Ignoring the value of trades...
Glad for the win, but I'm still disappointed we couldn't put up more than 24 points on offense. The Jets have the WORST defense in the NFL, giving...
Few QBs have a "full offense" on the field so you never want to make excuses for QB performance because of bad surrounding cast. What you want to...
Yeah Herbert's at 96.3 right now. If Tua ends up 95+ and Herbert keeps this up there won't be any real difference between them statistically. If...
Yeah I definitely share the concern about the offense. But even with this offense we should win a few more games this season. So many teams in the...
I've always said he needs to end slightly above average this year at 95+ rating for me to be on board. After today he's at 91.4 and trending...
Man.. I'd bet a good deal of REAL money we end up with a better than 4-13 record! I agree our offense is pretty bad, but a lot of other teams...
Relatively easy schedule coming up.. no reason we can't salvage the season. 7-7 might be up next. Anyway, good game even though there were a lot...
Irrelevant statement. Not one person suggested he would give up by being paid a lot. However, note that he is being paid a high salary and does...
I said pay them whatever to lure them. Read what I write. And no I'm not making up the OBVIOUS which is that coaches and players that do poorly...
Who said someone will suck because they are getting paid a lot? I said they're not going to do better (in the context of half a billion given up...
Depends on the job. Some jobs it's really hard to fire someone for bad performance, but in a lot of jobs you'll get fired if you don't do well and...
No, I have a problem with two things: 1) No incentive to perform well. Giving a person up front half a billion dollars that they're not going to...
So what's the over/under on Belichick breaking the all-time record for oldest NFL HC? Right now it's 73 years old when Crennel stepped in as...
Yeah, well Belichick is one of the greatest coaches ever. I still don't think he can replicate the success he had with Brady. There are going to...
Dude.. giving someone up front half a billion dollars just to switch organizations would be one of the dumbest moves any owner could make. Money...
Apparently that 10% stake was worth $750,000 in 1969, which is $21 million today taking inflation into account. $21 million is 0.7% of the lower...
lol.. 10-15% of the Dolphins is worth maybe $300 million to $500 million!! Belichick is the highest paid coach in professional sports with 6 SB...
How are we doing? We just beat the Ravens in impressive fashion, which has put a 1-week pause on a torrent of posts saying our owner Ross is...
