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All of that is indeed promising. The question is whether that style can transition effectively from the position/offense level to the overall...
If that level of involvement with the team was a prerequisite for raising things for discussion on this message board, there wouldn't be a single...
Right, I didn't say that was a depiction of the military in general. I said that could be a depiction of it (or any other group with a leadership...
I can see that, but let me ask you this: if your NCO (hypothetically) behaved like a silly guy in general, and there weren't respected enlisted...
Again start with the idea, if it's true, that "the team takes on the personality of its coach." A team identity and culture is therefore an...
If that's the approach he's going to take and stick to, then I'd venture to say that his success will be a function of whether he has a Tom Brady...
The relevance there is that McDaniel's behavior with the press and in general is now a reflection of who the Miami Dolphins are. When you're a...
I don't think you're recognizing the construct I'm using to distinguish McDaniel from the greatest head coaches of all time. I'm talking about...
I'll put this discussion here because I'm interested in other people's responses to it:
I think that may work well via McDaniel's apparent demeanor when you're talking about a position coach, or the coaching capacities McDaniel has...
The only thing that bothers me about McDaniel in hearing him speak and watching him in interviews is that if there is any truth to the axiom that...
The whole thing is a mess when the year-to-year correlation of the best statistic we know of in purportedly measuring QB play independent of other...
How would you go about determining whether, if a measure like this is less strongly correlated with winning, it's nonetheless more valid than...
That's what happens when you have a low prevalence of something (i.e., head coaching success) -- everything looks the same as everything else,...
The problem with these sorts of analyses is that the rate of success for head coaches is so small that you'd be hard pressed to identify any...
Anybody who portends that a head coach will be a failure is far more likely to be right than wrong. However, if there is a difference that can be...
The RPO can win Super Bowls if it functions to augment a team's run game by adding an option to pass the ball on a called run play, as a function...
See now that means a great deal. One of the criticisms of McDaniel is that he didn't call plays with the 49ers. But if he was the guy behind the...
That guy is absolutely classic. A Yale grad who sounds like he barely graduated high school in his manner of speaking, but whose words say a...
It's a true dichotomy, as such decisions involve mutually exclusive allocations of team resources. If you believe for example you need the best...
The problem with that is that I don't think it's necessarily dispositive of Tua's ability. McDaniel didn't get any other job interviews, and I'm...
The problem with that logic is that Flores has now entered into the realm of the unfalsifiable. No matter what happens with any team throughout...
That lawsuit just goes to show that there are lots of attorneys out there who will gladly take an implausible case and file a lawsuit on the basis...
I'm not sure you can define Jimmy Garoppolo as a non-elite QB. He's played two full seasons in the league and was among the league leaders in EPA...
I don't know if that was his only year on the team, but apparently he didn't catch a single pass that year:...
[MEDIA]
What I find so interesting about this guy is that he's never played a down of football at any level, and that his calling card is his innovation...
I think if Brady still wanted to play he would do it with the Bucs and Bruce Arians, where he's already proven he can win a Super Bowl. I think...
It doesn't necessarily have to be a high-end QB. It can be a Kirk Cousins-level QB for example, surrounded by the talent necessary to win a Super...
And those players will be far more valuable than a running back. Here is the relationship between EPA per rushing attempt and percentage of the...
At this point in the NFL a GM should be given three years to obtain the kind of quarterback needed to win a Super Bowl and then be fired if he cannot.
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/why-49ers-oc-mike-mcdaniel-should-turn-down-miami-dolphins-head-coaching-job
I suspect the tipping point for Flores in this matter was in finding out (from Belichick) the Giants had decided on Daboll without even...
Oh I definitely think it's backfiring, but I think his intent was to right his reputation by casting blame on the organization in a highly public...
I suspect the main purpose behind Flores's case is the attempt to correct (in his mind) the perception of his reputation as a coach. The team...
We can spare you the formulas all day, but that has no relevance to Brian Flores in 2020.
TD to INT ratio is a poor way to measure QB play: In terms of EPA per pass dropback -- the strongest predictor of winning in football -- the...
Some of the more perplexing decisions the team has made over the past three years are becoming clear as this big picture situation crystallizes....
Right, but rebuilds don't necessarily entail tanking. I'm not sure they told him from the outset that they wanted him to lose games. A...
Right, but the organization's goals and those of the HC were apparently in conflict. Probably the best measure of a HC's performance is the...
My take on the issue is that the organization is under tremendous pressure to reconcile the fact that another team that started rebuilding about...
Right, my response wasn't directed at you, but rather his attorney who seems to believe corroborating evidence of something immaterial means...
And? So they put Stephen Ross through the ringer in (some of) the court of public opinion. Can't see how they win the lawsuit against him,...
I'm not sure he has grounds for a successful lawsuit on the basis of the tanking scenario/complaint. If the organization's goal is to lose and he...
I don't think there's any problem with an owner's purposefully losing games in the present-day NFL, if the intent is to get an elite QB in the...
The McDaniel hire plus trade for Garoppolo is looking very intriguing right now.
I suspect that's the single most important thing to NFL football players regarding coaching -- whether the coaching is creating a schematic...
Christ if the passing game gets any "quicker" they'll be throwing the ball before it's snapped!
The big difference was the absence of targets for Tyreek Hill. In the first half he had 10 targets and 78 yards receiving. In the second half...
There was a social media meme going around after that game that said the NFL was going to cancel the rest of the playoffs and just have KC and...
Something interesting from yesterday someone posted on another football board: 1st half EPA/play: Mahomes: 0.660 Garoppolo: 0.542 Burrow: 0.244...
Statistics regarding what makes teams most likely to win in the NFL aren't also personnel selection statistics with regard to specific players....
They're actually doing a good job of things in my opinion if you consider the intent of the moves they've made. Top-notch QB (again the intent),...
The highlighted portions above are exactly the argument. Keep in mind as well that there's a salary cap to consider, whereby allocating money in...
The Cincinnati Bengals, in the Super Bowl with the second-worst offensive line in the league in pass block win rate, at 49%. The 2021 Dolphins: 47%.
We're measuring actual situations -- how all 32 teams' offensive lines play over full seasons, and determining the variation among them on the...
The greatest offensive lineman in the history of the NFL couldn't possibly know how much offensive lines vary throughout the league over full...
What's said above is exactly why there is comparatively little variation among offensive lines throughout the league -- they're the biggest...
Some other stats of note: Although the Dolphins spent the second-least money in the league on its offensive line personnel in 2021, the...
PFF stopped listing the team pass blocking grades after 2018, but from 2021 we do have this -- note the highlighted portion: From 2020:...
The part I bolded and underlined above actually isn't true. See here for example:...
PBWR for Tennessee in 2020 was 24th in the league at 53% and in 2021 24th in the league at 56%.
OK after getting -0.267 in Jamovi I figured out the issue -- copying and pasting the table into Excel made the -0.17 EPA in 2018 translate as...
The "EPA" column is EPA per play. Should've posted this along with it: EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency) CPOE =...
And when you consider the 7-3 record in Super bowls, absolutely unreal: [IMG] EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency) CPOE =...
Definitely counterintuitive. The PFF pass blocking grades are in the image at the bottom of the post you quoted. Something that may explain it:...
Because the second-strongest predictor of winning in football is pass defense, and Houston's has been routinely poor. It isn't just what your own...
You can certainly try something new and see how it works. Just realize that the statistics relevant to what's most strongly associated with pass...
Certainly it's affected, but it's affected across teams in such a way that the variation among teams in offensive line play is far smaller than...
That makes you potentially the Eagles or Browns for example -- teams with great pass blocking in 2021 and insufficient QBs, who likely aren't...
In terms of what we're talking about now, that's indeed the issue, because you could very well base your personnel strategy on maximizing the...
What you don't seem to realize is that there is no degree of offensive line improvement that will make this team play like we want it to unless it...
The Bengals' offensive line played at roughly the same level this year yet they were 9th in the league in pass efficiency and are playing to go to...
According to the best measures we have, the Bengals' offensive line didn't change from 2020 to 2021, yet Burrow's performance improved...
Right, this is why at the end of the post you quoted I noted that the Dolphins need better QB and receiver play. Burrow's improvement this year...
You're combatting the finding in post #41 while supporting it with what you're saying at the same time. The fact that QBs like Burrow and Wilson...
The above is a good study in what I've been talking about here. In 2020 Cincinnati's pass block win rate was 29th in the league at 50%. Joe...
Nobody is debating the cause of the pressure and its relationship with the injury -- yes that isn't a math problem. What I'm debating is whether...
Read the sentence you quoted again: “If such events were likely…” That’s precisely the problem in measuring offensive line play as a function of...
The point is that there are other teams throughout the league that had similar games at times during the 2021 season, and that decreases the...
If such events were likely as a function of offensive line deficiencies, then the relationship between offensive line play and pass efficiency...
Wanted to explore this so I did it with the 2018 season and found the following: 84.5% of the variance in EPA per pass dropback explained, with...
This is why pass blocking has the meager relationship it does with passing efficiency league-wide over whole seasons -- because the variation...
What you're saying above is about like saying the Dolphins woes in the passing game in 2021 were attributable to their punting. Punting has such...
Right, I'm not saying teams can get away with not defending the run at all. But there is a reason why, empirically, there is no significant...
There is no such thing as a "dangerous rushing attack" in comparison to the threat the passing game poses in the present-day NFL. What you're...
You do need analytics to determine that. That's been debunked:...
There are many areas of life in which common sense is incorrect and uncommon sense is correct. This is one of them. In addition to what cbrad...
Remember that Tannehill's performance versus expectation against Cincinnati's defense was far worse than Burrow's performance versus expectation...
Turnover margin for Cincinnati was +2. 67 games in 2021 with a turnover margin of +2. The team on the favorable side of that turnover margin won...
The problem with that approach is that it's belied by the data in the post you quoted. Pass efficiency drives the bus on winning in the NFL, and...
That's the thing about the PFF grades -- they're purportedly evaluating players in isolation from each other, but when it comes to a QB's throwing...
In a model with QB grades, receiving grades, and an interaction effect, 81% of the variance in EPA per pass dropback is predicted, and none of the...
Pertaining to what's quoted above, the good news is that teams can apparently help their QBs and pass offenses function significantly better with...
But do we know the correlation between time to throw and performance? We do know that when passes are thrown beyond three seconds after the snap,...
See here: https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/
The PFF statistic there is certainly a good one, as their QB grades are the strongest predictors of future performance for QBs, but consider that...
Those are great statistics with regard to what's happening, but not so great with regard to what's possibly not happening. For example, what if...
What would more conceivably make a team more competitive against those teams is a great defense, but note that the Bills had the best pass defense...
Right, so it ratchets up the need for a great passing offense even greater. Allen with a 136 passer rating at 8.9 yards per attempt, coupled with...
If you can have the best defense in the league and still get beaten in the playoffs by Patrick Mahomes, scoring 30+ points in regulation, you have...
He'll need to get that corrected, however, because he very likely won't be able to score in the teens like that and be able to beat Buffalo or KC....
Right, but QBs are called "good" because they typically play better than other QBs against the same defenses. If the degree to which Burrow...
The league should be at the point now where it recognizes the importance of the top-notch QB/receiver combo and acquires players accordingly. The...
With just a rough sketch it looks like Cincinnati surrendered 0.021 EPA per pass dropback in 2021 (11th in the league), and Tennessee 0.011 (10th...
One way to incorporate what you’re both saying is to measure how the QBs performed in comparison to what’s expected against the opposing defenses...
The problem as I see it is that the Dolphins keep replicating a potentially highly conflictual situation where the three most important personnel...
That was one of the potential issues about Tua after his rookie season. The refrain about him was that he wasn't recognizing that receivers were...
I don't know how accurate this is, but if it is, it's a problem: [MEDIA]
Yeah I'm not saying you let Gesicki go and replace him with nothing. I'm saying you let him go and replace him with another Jaylen Waddle type...
The first thing you do is not sign Mike Gesicki. If you're going to build the offense around Tua, you need Jaylen Waddle types who can create...
Murray's recent performance has a lot do to with this: [MEDIA] This is why the Dolphins need a go-to player of that nature, whether it develops...
I think the better question is whether somebody within the organization sabotaged (unintentionally) Brian Flores's development as a head coach....
It actually looks like it can be viable at the NFL level based on this: [MEDIA] But if you're restricted to it because you can't throw downfield...
The underlined portion is potentially a problem in the NFL as compared to college, because the linemen in the NFL can go only one yard downfield,...
How about this one: https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/weighted-EPA-methodology-and-performance
That is certainly informative.
I think he still displays the pinpoint accuracy, but if that 1) involves too great a percentage of short passes that don't generate high pass...
That's what's indeed troubling, because he had one of those players -- and not just one of those kinds of players, but one of the actual players!...
The two years Tua was a full-time starter in college he averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt, which is extraordinary. But again, when he can...
It looks like this will become part of a more comprehensive measure of QB play:...
This issue involves a difficult proposition for the league's GMs because they have to weigh whether it's more likely to obtain an elite QB who can...
A new QB statistic that was introduced by Next Gen Stats just the other day:...
The issue is that if he throws a greater percentage of longer passes in the air, completion percentage would likely decrease, and there's no...
It's most certainly true. The air yards per attempt of Tua's passes in 2021 was 8th percentile in the league. 92% of the league's QBs threw longer...
The problem with passer rating for Tua is that it's inflated by relatively short passes that have a high likelihood of being completed, but which...
EPA (expected points added) per play. The last 5 league MVPs have either led the league or been an extremely close second in the league in EPA...
Something that can help compare some relevant QBs: [ATTACH] EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency) CPOE = nflfastR...
In terms of PFF's season pass blocking grade, Herbert's line went from 2nd percentile in 2020 to 20th in 2021, so if PFF's season pass blocking...
This is a team that was just one of only three teams in the league (Lions and Giants were the others) that didn't receive a single vote for any of...