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I wouldn't be upset if we signed Minshew. I made that clear in the Minshew thread. However, I'd still want to draft a QB because he clearly isn't...

Never said there's some sure fire backup ready to jump in and win games for us. Just saying there are clear options better than Wilson and that...

I know. Really bad judgment by Grier. Obviously Grier thinks a career bust is a good deal. Mind-boggling.

Now that we have Wilson as backup QB I totally agree with you. It's over without Tua. A better GM would have put us in a situation where we are...

Last 3 years Minshew had 80+ ratings while Wilson averaged 73.2. I'm not saying Minshew is who we should have chosen. Just saying he's obviously...

Nope, I don't for one moment buy this idea that you should just assume it's over if the starting QB goes down. That's a sign of a bad GM. And...

It's not my job to find the guy. But even a blind person can see Minshew would've been better. Point is, you don't sign someone like Wilson.

Big difference with Wilson is we're essentially guaranteed to lose if Tua goes down. It's like there was no attempt to even get a good backup QB....

I don't buy that. A good GM should prepare the team for situations where the starting QB goes down. Some SBs have been won by backups. Just having...

Wilson's not even worthy of a backup. Would rather draft someone than him.

There's no evidence Wilson can even come close to "decent". He has a career 73.2 rating when league average is around 90. You mentioned Darnold,...

I couldn't believe this when I read it. Grier is an idiot unless there's another signing in the works. Terrible move.

I'd take him. I'd still draft someone late round. Backup QB is a major priority.

Who said they're bad? I'm just saying, give credit where credit is due and blame where blame is deserved. Similarly, anything statistically too...

As I pointed out already, Bills in 2022 had a huge number of key injuries to their defense and they were still #2. So injuries are no excuse....

Changing DC almost never results in a drop like that. And injuries are no excuse if you're going to give the GM credit. See my post above on the...

No consultant has so much influence that him leaving drops a defense 22 points in ranking. Just think about how ridiculous that kind of argument...

Of course it's luck. It's not normal to hit on players that good in the first 2 rounds. We're not just talking starters, we're talking high level...

I wouldn't say they're dominant. In the Hurts/Sirianni era (last 4 years) they won 1 SB, lost 1 SB, lost two WC, and came in 2nd twice in their...

Tampa Bay won the SB in 2020 as a WC team without winning their division and playing all playoff games away from home. So it's not mandatory.

"Better chance" is still very low. It's still a crapshoot at the top of the 1st round for top caliber players, much less hitting at positions 20...

More skill than luck to build a strong team yes. But more luck than skill to go from #30 to #2 in defence in a single year and get over the hump...

I didn't say it's "just" luck. But there's no denying luck in involved in hitting on two CB picks like that. No GM can hit on players like that...

The 2026 SB is being held in Levi stadium, so the Dolphins are about 3,000 miles away from a SB. Metaphorically sounds about right.

Eagles also got lucky. They were #30 in defense last year and #2 in defense this year. It's rare to see that kind of sudden improvement. In large...

I wasn't proven wrong. I'm arguing we should use a more relevant metric that correlates with winning. Again, if you just go by injury stats you...

What matters is how much a QB contributes, not "games missed due to injury". If "games missed due to injury" is the more important metric you'd be...

No you're ridiculous. You think being available only to make ZERO passing attempts means something?? That's contributing absolutely NOTHING to the...

Durability is irrelevant if you throw zero times in a game!!! No, the better stat is 10+ passing attempts in a game, and there's hardly any...

Weren't you repeatedly telling us arm strength is NOT how far you can throw it? It's about "throwing deep with velocity", not how far you can...

You're looking at games played, but how many passing attempts did he have in those extra games played? In 6 of those games he had zero passing...

At least neither team has Herbert as QB. Would have choked the game away despite all the other strengths.

We're getting to the point where a different kind of history could be made. There's never been a Super Bowl shutout. Just over a quarter left...

At least it's nothing like soccer in Europe or Central and South America. It's extremely peaceful here among sports fans in the US (with a few...

StaleTacos made it abundantly clear in many many posts in threads you were a part of he wanted us to lose as much as possible to get Grier fired,...

If Barkley leads Philly to a SB, this will be a rare moment in recent NFL history. Marshawn Lynch was the last one to do so, and even he was...

That's not a fair take. Many anti-Tua posters would rather see Tua play bad and the Dolphins lose than Tua play well and the Dolphins win. Some...

There's nothing to suggest Herbert would help us win more in Miami even if he's more available than Tua. That's the part you have to more...

Let's just agree that what pundits would say about a straight up trade between Herbert and Tua is pure speculation given the clear evidence many...

What I'm pointing out is you can't use 50 as an absolute threshold for "top performers" without adjusting receptions by era because you'd be...

btw.. if the claim is "more common for RBs to catch passes" in one era than another, you really shouldn't look at number of receptions because...

No, one of the original arguments made by anti-Tua posters after Herbert's rookie year was that Herbert didn't need a good OL to play well while...

Dude.. the "Herbert chokes" reaction was all over the media, a ton of podcasts and commentators went on and on about it. Did they specifically...

I think you're completely misreading what popular opinion is. I remember going to the Chargers message boards and seeing a LOT of Chargers fans...

The confirmation bias is way stronger on the pro-Herbert side than the pro-Tua side, at least in this thread. Note how often the goalposts keep...

You're STILL defending Herbert? Geez. Herbert was throwing too many times to the opposing defense lol.. to answer your question. He was playing...

Just want to point out that if Mahomes (the clear #1) wins the SB this year he's vaulted to arguably top 3 all time behind Brady and on par with...

Technically the rating is a predictor of performance in those conditions, so statistically you can make the argument Tua > Herbert based on the...

No, Herbert chokes more than Tua in playoff games, i.e., he lowers the chance of winning one more than Tua. So by your own standards Tua >...

Wasn't in the playoffs. Playoffs are different remember? That's your OWN criteria. Again, Tua > Herbert by your own criteria. Just (try to) be...

Nope lol. Herbert choked like Tua never did, and with a much better team including the #1 defense. Let me remind you about your boy Herbert in the...

Not according to your own criteria. Making the playoffs is irrelevant according to your own criteria. That means winning playoff games. And...

It's worse for Allen because he's 0-4. What's funny is 3 of them are against KC. KC has to be in the nightmares of Buffalo fans.

Years of backpedaling is necessary for you to even be somewhat consistent. You're so inconsistent in your views there's no credibility left. It's...

You have no credibility whatsoever. How many times did you tell us it was irrelevant if Tua took us to the playoffs. Here's one post:...

Some? Years of backpedaling lol. He's running out of new places to put them goalposts!

So in the same post you say you judge QBs by their ability to win playoff games, yet you're still in denial about Herbert being the biggest choker...

I can't attack Allen or Burrow. They're really good. Herbert has proven so far to be the biggest choker of them all, and Lamar is getting better...

HA! Buffalo lost. LOVE IT. I hope they never win a SB.

Depends on what we get in return. It's the type of move that could help this team retool without waiting out Hill's contract. I don't care that NE...

Predictions of Grier's demise have all turned out wrong. This team is good enough to not get him fired. Not saying that's a good thing, but that's...

I don't bash Mahomes, except he's been subpar (for him) lately. Allen is fine. Burrow is clearly superior too, and Lamar deserves to be bashed...

Sounds good. My only qualifier, and it's a big one, is that it's way too small sample size for both. Flacco and possibly Lamar (we'll see) show...

OK well as long as I don't hear from you that Herbert is better I'll accept that point of view (putting up points against good teams consistently...

Tua got criticized for putting up 27 points in a loss to Buffalo (in Buffalo) with 2 TDs, no INTs and a 124.9 rating. Why doesn't that game show...

That stance will force you into a lot of contradictions. You know, like preferring Stafford over Burrow, or saying Allen isn't good enough either...

We all know that, but with large sample size passer rating explains ~40% of the variation in win% in NFL history. Considering that offense is...

Passer rating has to be taken at face value. We all know it's not great with small sample size, but that doesn't mean you don't use it...

Yeah.. none of the teams left I was rooting for. But I will definitely root for KC over Buffalo. Never want Buffalo to win a SB. Also, KC will...

He's definitely gotten better. Wasn't good enough for the win. One of those turnovers was the difference. That's the playoffs.

I think having Tyreek definitely affected how defenses play us. But I don't think you need to replace like for like if you get rid of Tyreek. Get...

Here's a nice article on that from 2021. The author notes that it actually started happening from the early 2000's. And it's only gotten worse...

btw.. there's a caveat to the observation that there's a recent trend towards more running QBs in the NFL. While it's true there are more than...

Yeah this I agree with. It's a recent trend, not a necessity.

Admittedly your post was somewhat surprising to me because I didn't hear from you before that you thought a dual threat QB was necessary to win a...

I think you guys are misreading recent history here. There's a difference between there being more QBs who are a threat to run (i.e., change in...

Precisely why we need to wait and see what happens. It is very impressive for sure, especially for a rookie, but let's see what happens after...

Look up the Combine results and what talent evaluators said for Brady pre-draft. Slow and weak arm. He was widely known for that for maybe the...

Brady was known for a weak arm early on. That's a fact. He improved it over time, but he absolutely disproves your claim that you need a strong...

Brady is absolutely modern NFL. You lost that argument. And he was known for a weak arm coming out of college. He improved it over time, but he...

Brady and Brees didn't have that strong arms. You don't need to be built like Jayden to win a SB even in the modern age. And it absolutely...

You don't need "big physical gifts and tools" to be a great QB, win the SB, or beat a team in the playoffs that has a QB with big physical gifts...

Tua was 6-5 this year for a 54.6% win%. Tua's rating this year was 101.0 which translates to an expected 61.5% win%. Over 11 games that's 6.76...

Anytime you ask "how much better" you need to define an outcome variable that matters to you. The most important in sports is winning, so you want...

Have you guys looked at how terrible the Jets have been at QB in the last 15 years? These are all ratings for the entire year for the starting...

You mean Tua's not perfect. Noted. But many SBs have been won by accurate pocket passers with quick releases: Brady, Peyton and Brees come to...

He hasn't done that well either, but he did start off with a 93.7 his rookie year, and in year 3 a 95.9. I get what you're saying, and I totally...

He played with the #1 defense throughout the season. Choking is correct.

That's what I almost felt watching Darnold this year. Guy has been an epic bust until this year (remember he was picked 3rd overall). Thankfully...

lol.. Herbert has been terrible in the playoffs and you think he'd be contending for a SB? That pick 6 wasn't due to him not having good WRs. That...

Next Gen Stats says the fastest verified throw in NFL history (since 2016 I think) is 61.98 mph, so 65 mph is likely just made up. [ATTACH]

I bought the entire DVD collection lol. Never gets old.

Love that show! Today's hyper-hyper sensitive world (at least in the US) is not my style. Married with Children was the best sitcom I've seen....

Passing stats are generally a lot better when the QB plays with a lead than when they try to come from behind. Mahomes' career rating is 109.6...

It's not a strawman. You're trying to equate Herbert with Tua in the playoffs. Herbert is FAR worse than Tua in the playoffs. He has proven that....

You were right about Tua being injury prone (which is a serious thing of course), but wrong about almost everything else regarding what Tua could...

Herbert has done a lot worse than Tua in the playoffs. Don't try to equate the two by saying "not done much better". Herbert is a lot worse. That...

btw.. hitman8, this one quote of yours shows everyone how many contradictions you have in your position. Check this one out:...

Nope, I already pointed out how many times you've emphasized that making the playoffs isn't enough, you have to win in the playoffs. So really the...

I'm not even asking you to change your preference for Herbert. Both Tua and Herbert have a lot of career left in them, so we'll see what ends up...

Your own context: https://thephins.com/threads/dolphins-browns-week-17.99641/page-4#post-3681526 THAT is the position you took when you were...

You don't understand how powerful the stats argument is. QBs don't put up 3 straight years of elite stats without that being in large part due to...

Herbert's trash play against Houston is a situation the pro-Herbert anti-Tua crowd can't overcome because they're primary remaining argument...

Your previous statement didn't put in a disclaimer that Herbert would suddenly lose the ability to thrive with a bad OL in the future. You made a...

You're in a huge credibility hole because you don't apply standards equally to Herbert and Tua. I just quoted you saying Herbert could "thrive"...

lol try to be a bit consistent. You said this: https://thephins.com/threads/flores-is-exposed.96718/page-3#post-3402335 One of your original...

Yeah, first it was goalpost moving, now it's a double standard just for Tua, and only for Tua.

Ah the excuses begin. There are no excuses for his play. You would never give Tua any such benefit, especially if he played like Herbert did. And...

At least Tua didn't suck anywhere near as much as Herbert did in the playoffs. Being available to play in the playoffs is not a plus when you suck...

lol that's delusional. Tua has NEVER had a 4 INT game, much less 4 INT + pick 6, and you think he wouldn't have done better than Herbert? Herbert...

I know it's only one game and one season, but Daniels reminds me a bit of Dak Prescott. Dallas fans were ecstatic with Dak his rookie year: 104.9...

AJ Brown was traded in 2022. Tannehill's stats went way down in 2021. He played with AJ for a full year while posting an 89.6 rating. Tannehill's...

Not even close. There are so many that are worse, but one I remember seeing while looking up Ryan Fitzpatrick (because we decided to sign the guy)...

Tua is 0-1 against the SB winning KC Chiefs (the best team in the league that year) with a 1 TD, 1 INT game and a 63.9 rating. A poor performance...

I'm not disagreeing that Tua has come up short in many big games. But tempering that to a good degree is that he's played really well against some...

If the goal is to win a SB you cannot prefer Herbert over Tua (just comparing these two) after yesterday. That kind of choke performance is worse...

All I'm saying is after yesterday it's clear Tua was the better choice between the two. Both Qbs have ample time to prove they can play well when...

Not like Herbert.

What's the point of availability if you choke when it matters most?

Except the part about it being a dream if we picked "choke master" Herbert.

Thing is.. there are no excuses for his play yesterday.

Yeah Herbert's a good QB, no question. We're giving him crap only because people unfairly give Tua crap. Both are franchise QBs, though as of...

Some of the NFC WC games might be competitive this year. Vikings at Rams and Commanders at Bucs have to be difficult to bet on because the...

Yeah.. I've always said you need a minimum of 150 passing attempts for passer rating to be even somewhat reliable, and Lamar had 136 attempts...

They're definitely discussing it on the Chargers message boards! lol. 4 INTs, a pick 6, most important reason the Chargers lost while playing with...

That stat padding helped Herbert improve his rating for the game to 40.9 lol.

Yeah Herbert = choker. There's no defending him after this performance. Two choke performances in a row in the playoffs. Grier picked the right QB.

Well.. clearly Burrow > Tua, but I think we need to give Grier props for NOT choosing Herbert. That guy is a pure choker. That's 2 years he choked...

So TDK and Unlucky exceeded that 67% level that the best machine learning algorithms tend to average over a full season. That's impressive. Puka...

Saying "2 playoff appearances" isn't really a fair way of comparing. Burrow is 5-2 in playoff games with some impressive performances despite a...

Rooting for Detroit. But I do think a KC threepeat is possible. That is a very good team, and lucky too. If I had to make a prediction I think...

If Tua can learn to play smarter and not get himself injured, we'll probably take a step forward. Maybe not as far forward as we'd like, but it...

6 SBs won by WCs in NFL history. Given the number of WC teams per year, that means expectations of us winning the SB should be in the range 1 out...

It's easy to say things that give people hope. Question is can you deliver. Ross has been the owner since 2009. You don't judge him on what he...

He hasn't blown up the GM position often. Grier has been kept far too long. And I don't think we should have kept any of the HCs, from Sparano,...

Probably the team I'll be rooting for too. That franchise has suffered as much as any other.

Ross bought the Dolphins in 2009 for $1.1 billion. That's about $1.6 billion today factoring in inflation. Dolphins are currently valued at $6.2...

Well this shows where the real problem is: Ross. And there's nothing we can do about that one.

Cockroaches are survivors. In that sense it does describe Grier lol.

If he wants out, that makes it easier for us to get more in return. Need a GM that's good at making deals though.

Yeah makes no sense to sell off assets for a future QB. Offseason priority is clearly OL followed by backup QB and defense. Have to build on what...

We played like losers today. No fight. I hate it when a team plays like that. Offseason better bring some change.

Not sure about the save face theory. Doesn't happen as often as just straight up firing the person. I don't think Ross would have an issue with...

They're saying he could "move into a senior advisory role" instead of retire per se. How good this news is depends on whether that senior advisory...

Some of the injuries are preventable if he plays smarter. His currently availability rate isn't that much lower than league average. If he learns...

If you want to really test how good people are at predicting outcomes, simulate what they'd do in Vegas. Predict the winner based on the spread.

The chance of finding a QB better than Tua is extremely slim. Don't forget the multi-decades long wait since Marino till we had Tua. You don't get...

It's a good point, but a closer look tells you they've only won their last game resting starters if they play a really weak team. Andy Reid with...

McD said: "I think Tua wishes it was just a pain issue. It's quite literally being able to have the strength to do what we ask him to do, as well...

Cinci's OL was worse than anything we've had with Tua. The most sacks Tua ever suffered in a game is 6. Burrow in that almost miraculous SB run in...

Their plan all along (stated in documents too) was to be ready to invade by 2027. They're on track. The chance of China succeeding has little to...

I think I'm rooting even harder for the Dolphins now just to see what happens if by some miracle we make the playoffs and win a playoff game with...

Humans have always fought wars and always bounced back. The situation today is actually relatively peaceful historically speaking. Obvious danger...

We'd definitely be better with Burrow. His performance behind an absolute crap OL in the playoffs, taking the Bengals to the SB, shows he's a...

The defense was 6th in points allowed (most important defensive metric) in Flores' 2nd year. Fell back to 16th in the 3rd year. The worst teams...

Most of what is called AI nowadays is really a DLM = deep learning model, which is a subset of machine learning which is a subset of AI. DLMs...

First of all, the statistics revolution in football started from outsiders well before NFL teams caught onto it. Secondly, these NFL teams aren't...

Shows how little you know about stats. The proprietary stuff is actually what's laughable. They claim to be capable of apportioning credit when...

No I wouldn't. I know it's really hard for you because you like stats and can't stand the fact Tua is playing statistically elite for 3...

How long did it take to get a good QB on this team after Marino? That's how hard it is, and you want us to go down that route again. Say what you...

Sorry, traded. Point is, you were completely wrong about how good Rodgers would be. If we followed your advice this team would have given up a ton...

Yes, major concerns no doubt. Doesn't change the fact that if we get rid of Tua we're in a huge QB hole that may take a very long time to get out...

Background? You were clamoring for us to sign Rodgers when he became a free agent, and said the Jets would be "monsters" with him.

That could be because the evidence doesn't exist which would mean you're wrong. And of course if Tua does fail later, then I will see the...

At least admit you were completely wrong about Rodgers. HUGE miss.

There's no evidence I'm wrong about Tua. Getting rid of Tua could set us back 10-20 years in the search for a franchise QB. You act like you've...

lol.. the guy who said pro Tua posters' positions were more extreme than ISIS saying I'm the worst poster on the site. Look in the mirror.

lol.. caught in a logical argument and can't admit it could lead to a situation you don't like. No problem. It's not the first time.

You're not understanding basic logic. Based on what your wrote there's no way out. If Grier remains as GM you'll be compelled to keep rooting...

You said the reason you're rooting for the team to lose is to increase the chances of getting Grier fired because you don't think Grier could ever...

Point still remains. I can see rooting for tanking one year or two. But at some point rooting against the team means you're not a fan. Just...

He also wanted Rodgers. Thankfully we didn't go that route.

Ignore for a moment what will actually happen, since we don't know that yet. Just hypothetically, let's say for the next 10 years the team keeps...

Grier (almost certainly) isn't getting fired even if we lose against the Jets. His nickname should be "teflon". So what are you going to do? Root...

Yes we'll see. Tua has done a hell of a lot better than his detractors have predicted thus far, while Herbert has done exactly as I predicted...

Burrow wasn't available. Herbert was, and there's no evidence Herbert is in any way better. If anything Tua is slightly better than Herbert...

What specifically are you arguing against? Point to something I said that you disagree with. This latest post seems like you're ignoring what I...

That is nothing close to "all you've been saying" lol. Tua is being attacked for things that aren't his fault, like losing to teams when he played...

Who cares. You don't blame the QB when he plays that well nor say "he" can't beat good teams. Clearly in those games it was the rest of the team...

Tua had 2 TDs 0 INTs and a 124.9 rating against Buffalo and yet we still hear "Tua" can't beat good teams. Was that Tua's fault? Tua had 2 TDs 0...

Wins and losses only become player stats with massive sample size, like over a 10+ year career for QBs, and probably never for players with much...

Is that your brother again? Harking back to this thread where he predicted based on logos that the SB would be SF vs. Ravens:...

Same with Herbert. Other than Denver they lost to every team with a winning record they played this season: Pittsburgh, KC (twice), Baltimore,...

This is the list for most playoff wins since 1970. Sadly we're tied for 11 on that: [ATTACH]

A reference to a mafia boss? Underhanded insult.

Updated rankings: #9 in points allowed, #4 in yards allowed. We have a chance to end up #8 in points allowed because we're at 20.8 points allowed...

9-8 would be fantastic after a 2-6 start even if we miss the playoffs due to KC resting key starters. That means we'd end 7-2 on the season, which...

I was impressed by the accuracy. That means he's becoming more familiar with the playbook. If we're lucky and Huntley keeps this up, we may not...

That's yards per game. Cleveland is 27th in passer rating against (prior to today), which is more important....

If Huntley plays like he did today we should be fine. That would be great to have a possible solution for backup QB already on the roster. Because...

You never know man. Leicester City winning the Premiership with 5000:1 odds means anything can, and sometimes does, happen! Dolphins now have 44%...

Who cares. Franchise comparisons means you include all games in the SB era. Also, you have no idea what the future holds. No way Patriots fans...

No. Tyler Huntley played, and he played well. 115 rating that was deserved. Question is if he can do that against better competition.

Why does it matter when the team won a SB or how competitive they are right now? For franchise bragging rights we've won 2 Eagles have won only 1....

The negativity here by some is amazing. We need to beat the Jets and KC needs to beat Denver and we're in the playoffs. How you can be negative...

He called the outcome but not the reason for the outcome. Drew Lock, a guy with a 55.8 rating this year LOL puts up 4 TDs no INTs for a 155.3...

Giants INT!! Game over!

Giants now leading 42-33!!! 2:57 left. This is from a team averaging 14.3 ppg lol. Last in the NFL.

Giants TD! They're leading 35-26 with 8:39 left. C'mon Giants!

It's up to the GM and HC to properly interpret stats. What is clear is that statistical analysis increases your competitive advantage if you do...

Yeah that's it. It was the most realistic path from the outset. We win out, Denver loses out, and Colts lose one (hopefully today).

You guys watching this? Giants are leading Colts 21-6 right now!

Wild game. I see you posted that at the time the Bengals kicker hit the goalpost lol. Man he's lucky the Bengals won. We're still in it! Biggest...

It was still the right decision. There wasn't a better option at QB. If we got rid of Tua our biggest hole would be at QB, and we might spend the...

Tannehill is Over-the-hill. He had a 78.5 rating last year and isn't even good enough to be a backup. Worse, he's not a fit for this system....

That's bad if he can't play. Only thing going for Huntley is we're facing 3-12 Cleveland. If we miss the playoffs, it's not a stretch to say it...

91.7 vs. 83.6 is not a small thing! That's the difference between Tua playing above average given the competition, which means his terrible W/L...

Who compiled those stats?? First of all, if you plug in your numbers you get a passer rating of 83.6 not 84.3 so right off the bat something is...

3 on that list are OL. I think the bigger pattern with Grier is almost all his hits are in rounds 1 and 2. Everyone on your list except Achane,...

I think it depends on how we finish. If we end up 9-8 after a 2-6 start in good part due to 4 games without Tua, that means we will have ended 7-2...

After yesterday we're #10 in points allowed per game. This is encouraging. This defense can get a lot better but we're already seeing something...

Technically, it was completely false to say "ONLY path" because there is no room for anything else to be true.

Is it 7 or 6? Seems like it's 6. However, this screenshot from ESPN shows ESPN's computer program can't even add correctly. Note under sacks they...

No it's not correct. I've been saying the same thing in so many posts now, from the first one on this subject, but the Chargers are irrelevant if...

lol.. one can already see how some might use that as an excuse if the Dolphins do well — the opponent wasn't even trying. I don't think that's...

Awesome! Glad to see the Dolphins won when they had to, even if playoff chances are slim. Worst thing is if they just gave up.

It matters. It tells you a lot about McD and Tua. Having more data on what they do in the playoffs or on the road to it is always useful. This...

Completely false. I already pointed out the most realistic path, in which the Chargers are irrelevant. The most realistic path is Dolphins winning...

Yeah.. personally I don't think that will matter much. Reid doesn't seem like the kind of guy who takes it easy at the end. KC also tends to...

Yeah, I also noticed that in your scenario where we get in even if Indy goes 9-8 it's actually necessary for the Chargers to lose out in addition...

Key thing is that the sample of do-or-die games for McD and Tua isn't yet realistically over this season.

Yeah good you found that. Requires Houston and Pittsburgh to lose out, which isn't completely unrealistic, but requires Tennessee to beat Houston.

According to that simulator it seems like it. Try specifying Miami, Denver, Cinci and Indy so they're all 9-8. Indy gets in. But if Indy loses one...

Maybe not the best comment to make after losing to Houston, but there's still a realistic shot at the playoffs lol. Miami wins out, Denver loses...

What separates Burrow from the other two is what he did in the playoffs, going deep twice with a trash OL. That counts way more than any regular...

Interesting exchange. So danmarino is right on one thing: average passer rating isn't really an arithmetic average. That is, if you have 5 passer...

lol.. yeah to set the record straight.. we all know resnor has been strenuously opposed to Tua for many years. You go back to the draft and there...

Right.. but you don't put the blame on the QB in that case. Many put the blame on Tua even when he's not the reason for the loss. Yeah, us not...

At least we haven't heard the arm strength argument in awhile.

"Smart" people will preferentially use stats that have the highest correlation to win% because winning is what matters most. Correlation between...

You mean with the Lions. Before that with the Rams (so over his whole career) he put up 100+ ratings in years 2 and 3.

btw.. on a related subject, since the argument against Tua is turning towards wins rather than performance against good teams in the regular...

Montana is another.

Allen has 10 playoff games, and in 4 of them he had a higher rating than 120. Tua only has one playoff game. So it's fair to criticize Tua and not...

There are others. Mahomes for example.

OK.. well just take Jackson off any list. Ravens are one team I'm really interested in following in the playoffs precisely because I want to see...

Tua has played very well multiple times against good teams. It is still a criticism that the Dolphins (with Tua as QB) tend to lose so many such...

Makes no sense to include anyone having the it factor and handling pressure well if they're terrible in the playoffs. No such thing as ignoring...

You included them with QBs that have the "it" factor and handle pressure well. Why mention Jackson in the first place in such a discussion?

Jackson??? There is no other QB in the league today that exemplifies choking in the playoffs while playing great in the regular season than...

Great players don't always start off great in these do-or-die situations. Peyton Manning went 0-3 in the playoffs his first 5 years in the league...

What's wrong with you?

I'm against Vrabel. He inherited a team that went 9-7 two years in a row, did little to improve it the next two years (9-7 both years, though in...

Hate to say it, but no matter what happens I think Grier is safe. I think only if Tua fails does Grier get canned. McD is a different story. Ross...

Wow.. Tua crapped the bed at the most important time. Most of the loss is on him today. Well it's over for this year. I still hope they try and...

This is so true. The Dolphins would have won at least 1 SB and possibly more since Marino retired had we not been in QB purgatory the entire...

That's where you're provably wrong. There is no such thing as "my" or "your" version of consistency. Something is either logically consistent or...

What matters is performance, not how a guy looks. Just like some here think Tua isn't a great QB while Herbert is because of arm strength, looks...

I'm referring to the argument made by some anti-Tua posters that a QB's win/loss record against good teams in the playoff hunt matters. Tua has...

Rosen was worse, statistically. Skylar started 3 games, had 138 attempts and a 66.1 rating. Rosen started 3 games, had 109 attempts and a 52.0...

Good riddance. Backup QB is a major need along with improving the defense and OL.

If your argument is consistency, then you can't criticize Tua for anything with too small sample size because we don't know what the pattern is...

btw.. if we beat Houston tomorrow, the claim Tua can't beat good teams on the road in games that are crucial to get into the playoffs will be the...

Many of those stats are due at least as much to the QB as the OL. Sack%, QB hits and QB hurries all tend to be much higher for mobile QBs that run...

Who said he was terrible? Can you quote anyone saying that or are you just making this up? What people have said is he's good but not great, at...

Marino not winning any SB can't be just blamed on the defense. He was part of the problem too. In 1983 the Dolphins had the #1 defense. Marino...

Really impressed that Hill hasn't shown much of a diva attitude with him being less targeted than the past 2 years. If we're not forced to I...

There was such vitriol against Tua during the draft (go back to that thread to see the hatred), the first few years with Flores seemingly...

Use passer rating instead of ESPN's QBR. Love's passer rating was higher: 129.2 vs. 114.2 so you could have made the same argument using passer...

Tua's INT% is very low at 1.17% which is 5th best. His fumble lost % is 20% which is 6th best.

Not necessarily. The other 8-5 teams (Chargers, Broncos, Ravens) can all lose 1 game and still beat us.

One of the best predictors of Houston's W/L this season is whether CJ Stroud is sacked 4 or more times. In all 5 of their losses he was sacked 4...

I don't think we have had that monkey on our back for almost a decade. We started off 0-7 against the Texans, but since 2015 we're 3-1. We've had...

Obviously we want the Bucs and Giants to win, but the really important one (other than the Dolphins) is that Denver lose. They play the Colts,...

He's on his 3rd consecutive statistically elite season. The passing stat that correlates most to winning is passer rating and he was #1 in 2022,...

Monday Night Miracle. 30 points in 4th quarter (2nd largest 4th quarter comeback ever). I was in NYC at the time. The dread. Had we won it's...

We've now won 14 out of last 17 against the Jets (since 2016). That's one thing we can thank Gase, Flores and McDaniel for.. beating the Jets...

Glad our season is still alive. Losing that would have been enough reason to fire McD. 10-7 and a WC berth still (barely) doable! Go Phins!

It's similar. Correlation between rushing Y/C and passing Y/A is 0.16, so only slightly higher than the 0.11 for play action passes. Rushing...

Yeah the best single statistic on the effect of rushing efficiency to play action efficiency is EPA rushing vs. EPA play action. Those are in the...

Of course he was. Just pointing out that QB and HC are similar in importance in the NFL. Peyton Manning's effect when changing teams is another...

I love how the author of that article so clearly contradicts himself. Right up front he says: then proceeds to say what you quoted: Not a good...

Worth keeping track of. Herbert's rating for 2024 is now 98.2, so back to no improvement from his rookie year. It looked for awhile this year...

I think early on Tua needed McDaniel more. We saw what happened with Flores. Now it's different imo. I think Tua can succeed without McD....

Regarding #1, just so it's clear, while I wasn't disagreeing with the stance that it's a good idea to have a "mean, physical, wrecking machine" if...

There are many teams that didn't have a physically imposing OL or QB that were tough to beat in the playoffs. Remember the Seahawks with an OL...

Yeah, max 1 more year for a playoff win. Can't wait forever. Ross would likely replace McD.. who knows about teflon Grier.

Assuming Tua doesn't suddenly bomb, Grier is an average GM, nowhere near as bad as some here make him out to be. I would like to see him replaced...

I can agree with this stance, but so it's clear the problem isn't Grier or Tua. It's McDaniel. We have the players to win but our preparation and...

I think we can include 2022 since that's when McDaniel + Tua era started? In 2022 we beat Baltimore and Buffalo, the #3 and #4 defenses by points...

It was 58 degrees in Pittsburgh that day: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/197212310pit.htm

Yes it was. StaleTacos said winning was "the worst case scenario" and "what he feared most" AND didn't dispute me saying he's going on record that...

It was black and white, just like it is with pumpdogs. Feel free to ignore the suggestion to not misrepresent again, but you should expect the...

Still no excuse to misrepresent. Anyway, like I said you don't do that as a habit, so let's not repeat that.

It doesn't. Not sure we make the playoffs this year, but Tua and McDaniel definitely need to get that "can't win the cold" monkey off their back,...

Nothing wrong with changing opinions. It's not acknowledging you're changing your opinion and repeatedly claiming you meant something else when...

Sorry, but you went on a long attempt to twist what StaleTacos said into him not really rooting for the team to lose. You're right you don't do...

Sorry but in this case it's those posters that claimed no one is rooting for us to lose when it was stated in black and white that are stirring...

QB is up there too. Belichick without Brady is a great example.

It's not about whether it's understandable. It's about you, resnor and others trying to twist what is written in black and white into "no one is...

For the record we have two posters (StaleTacos the other) now explicitly making the same argument for why they're rooting for us to lose: it...

He's #18 in passer rating, #23 in Y/A, #22 in NY/A. Those are the 3 most important stats to look at. He's also #15 in TD% and #24 in INT%. Mahomes...

The more likely explanation is that the last 2 years something other than Mahomes was more important. Note that KC was top 6 in points per game...

Efficiency stats are far more important and correlate far more to winning than volume stats. Mahomes is average-ish efficiency wise. The majority...

Nothing will erase it, but wait long enough and someone will likely surpass it. Brady is great but I'd personally like to see someone else be the...

I'm actually rooting for him. He has the best chance among QBs today to beat Brady's 7 SBs. I would really like to see someone with Mahonmes'...

Mahomes has a long history of elite play that makes him one of the greatest ever, and it's not clear this "slump" will continue. So I'd go with...

It's very difficult to accurately take context into account. We already know you are really bad at it given all the incorrect predictions you've...

You're talking about style. Performance-wise there's no question he's one of the greats. But it's also time to acknowledge he's not been that...

Yeah Tua is a very good QB. Our issues lie mostly elsewhere.

Mahomes this year is not really an elite QB. In fact, this is the 2nd year in a row Mahomes is putting up average-ish stats in the regular season....

That's not true. Tua has played well against good teams and in some cases won. This year: the 27-30 loss against Buffalo was a game where he...

It's precisely psychological. That's on the coach. And Grier isn't getting fired regardless of whether that would help the team or not. Ross is...

Well.. the narratives will continue: can't beat teams in the cold or good teams when it counts most (except on rare occasion). Anyway, the season...

Statistically GB and Miami (with Tua) are fairly evenly matched. They're 8th in points scored per game, we're 11th if you only count games with...

I think it's just unwillingness to admit they were wrong about their initial evaluations, not losses the team has had. In fact some actually root...

They can have their opinions. We can have our opinions on their opinions. My opinion is that their opinion is ridiculous!

That's not what's irritating and leads to huge arguments. It's the negative view in spite of great performances. Tua is on track to put up a 3rd...

Yeah JJ_79 is willing to admit he was wrong. That's all you can ask for. Nothing wrong with being wrong if you can admit it.

Good thing there's a search function. Problem is, it won't show posts that were deleted and of course anything a mod alters erases evidence of...

hitman8 did say Chop Robinson was (already) a bust, just not in the post danmarino quoted. Serpico Jones said "Chop Robinson is horrible" to...

I think some of the cold weather statistics are biased because they have a higher percentage of playoff games where teams are stronger than in the...

I agree, spot on. Only other person I'd add is McDaniel if we end up with a winning record from 2-6 after losing our QB.

The 2024 team has a better chance than previous ones. Our defense is better and our offense is more balanced. Let's see what happens. But as...

I agree Tua and the Dolphins need to start putting those narratives to rest. However, a loss against GB doesn't mean we're out of the playoffs...

Almost as interesting as a potentially historical comeback by the Dolphins from 2-6 to make the playoffs and beyond, but there's a legit chance a...

For the record, would you prefer the Dolphins win or lose the remaining games we play this season? (and note I'm asking because of your well...

And the Dolphins were complacent today in finishing the game. That's the only negative from today IMO. Belichick and Brady had the right...

I think Tua was 235 last year, not 245. And Roethlisberger is 240 lb. So it's possible. In any case, I agree with you it's good he lost weight....

It's not just the win and the realistic playoff chances we should be happy about, but Tua having what looks like will be his 3rd consecutive...

You missed the news. He got banned.

How a player plays depends on their skillset. You make Tua more mobile by letting him lose weight he's going to attempt more plays like the one we...

Best game this year! They did get a bit complacent late. I was hoping for a shutout, but so be it. Tua's rating this year is now up to 106.25....

It has everything to do with it. His concussion against the Bills occurred because he decided to go head first into a defender well after he...

The only way my argument is valid is if two things are true: 1) StaleTacos is a fan, and 2) he is telling the truth about what the thinks. If...

He didn't talk about "not believing in the team". He said the win was the worst case scenario and what he feared most, i.e., he didn't want the...

What?? No one roots for "the worst case scenario" or "what they fear most". People root against that happening!!! The only logical reading is that...

Losing weight is fine if he plays smart enough not to increase the chance of a concussion. But he was out 4 games this year after losing weight...

I told you to look at StaleTacos' posts on page 6. You obviously didn't even bother to read the posts. His first post after we won:...

Murray? I would not call him a sure fire hit nor would I trade Tua for him. He's only had 2 really good seasons out of 6. Tua is now on his 3rd...

The only problem with that example is that the trade occurred during the 1989 season AFTER the 3-13 1988 season. In other words, there wasn't any...

TDK has argued one should first get all the other pieces in place then pick the QB. Not so much whether the QB was picked in a later round or not,...

History suggests it doesn't really matter when you get that elite QB. Just as it doesn't make such sense to have an elite QB without a good...

You said firing Grier and tanking is "literally the only way out of the hell we're in"....

That high completion percentage is partly due to shorter passing attempts. Tua was #1 in Y/A in 2022 and #2 in Y/A in 2023. This year he's #11....

Obviously we have to see how the season ends, but we never saw the ability to move the ball down the field in a systematic way like the last 2...

I agree he might work out, and the Raiders might cut him. But personally I want a longer term solution through the draft. It's always a good idea...

Yeah, offseason priority — and it's a priority — is developing a good backup QB. We should be picking a QB in round 1-3 or 4 at worst. It's hard...

The adversity we're facing this year, being 4-6 with essentially every remaining game a must-win, is a fantastic opportunity to evaluate McDaniel....

Fair enough. This is year 1 for you. But given what you've argued you probably will be rooting for us to lose for many years in the future. Grier...

StaleTacos is because he wants Grier fired. He admitted it himself repeatedly. See page 6. "I think actual change to the front office will occur...

Right.. so you want us to lose too. No one is firing Grier if we win. And be honest. This isn't the first year you've wanted us to lose to get...

StaleTacos admitted as much as that he'd rather see the team lose for precisely the reason I mentioned: to get Grier fired. Same narrative for...

This is going on for many years now. If you're rooting for the team to lose every single year just for some unrealistic glimmer of hope that Grier...

It didn't work. No SB wins. No Conference Championships. Worse playoff record than under Manning before the tanking. Tanking generally does not...

People need to also stop saying "worst team in the league". Raiders are 25th in points scored and 29th in points allowed. They're bad, but there...

This is where you need to look at historical probabilities of success when you tear down a team like that. It's worse than the situation we're in...

We're in the 2nd tier of teams — and probably will be for some years — and 4-6 right now needing to win almost every remaining game to make the...

9-ish wins? Last year we ended 11-6. I think we all agree it would be great if Grier was replaced, but that's not happening, especially with how...

Not just this season. What Burrow did against the Titans in the 2022 Divisional playoffs where he was sacked 9 times was unreal. Herbert could...

We're favored -7.5. No excuse for losing. We should be 5-6 heading into that Packers game which will be tough. That's when we'll really see if...

lol.. they'd never do that trade. They weren't willing to trade down in the 2020 draft, and they won't trade Burrow away now either. The guy is...

Burrow did what was necessary to win. Their kicker is the problem. He had multiple opportunities to put the Bengals ahead.. and flop.

Who cares if Tua needs a system more specifically designed for him than Herbert does? Many great QBs needed to be in the right system to succeed....

Given how wrong you've been about so many things QB related — specifically all those disproven claims about Tua not being able to do X,Y,Z, etc. —...

Tua and Herbert are about the same in terms of career rating. But Tua had 2 elite seasons going on a third with his 101.5 rating this year, while...

Sophmore season as in 2005? He was #3 in passer rating and #1 in Y/A. He didn't struggle at all except for knee injuries. I agree with your...

It does happen occasionally. Roethlisberger is a good example. Picked 11th in the 1st round — only pick by Pittsburgh in the 1st — and immediately...

https://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html Disclaimer: no one really knows what the probability is. These models make simplifying...

Fantastic! Then you should root for us NOT to tank, since it's irrelevant either way.

We're now at 18% probability we make the playoffs. That number will increase as we win more games btw.

No problem.. but let's remember the main takeaway from all that conversation: tanking rarely works. So people advocating tanking aren't advocating...

LOL. Astros consistently fielded teams with the lowest payrolls in MLB, or near lowest, and you're telling me a competitive balance pick has...

Why watch the games then? We are NOT turning into KC or another elite team this season. You already know we're "not good enough" even if we win....

No you're wrong about the Verlander trade not being related to picks. Daz Cameron was part of that trade and drafted in the 1st round in 2015. So...

It's an attempt to have key players for a SB run in the next few years. It's a gamble, but I think it's better than losing key players. We need...

Not bad to be stuck with VERY good players.

Players are constantly replaced. Just because you think some are in decline doesn't mean we're stuck with them. Also, the Dolphins have had 4...

You said the draft is largely irrelevant in baseball, and specifically with respect to my comment about the Astros. That's simply factually...

At least we'll have a large sample of "must win" games this season lol.

I think our best chance is getting the right DC. Our talent level is not bad. I agree Grier misses a lot, but overall he's an average GM not...

Astros got key players by tanking to get high draft picks, including Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. Draft picks were also used for key trades...

Yeah you're reading that wrong. Regardless, it's relatively rare for tanking to work in football. Basketball has many examples, but they have...

That's like hoping to win the lottery. Too low probability. Anyway, I'm going to keep rooting for this team to win as long as we have a...

Dude.. that's ignoring history. We've been a mediocre team too long with Grier prior to McD's recent success. Grier isn't getting fired even if we...

I don't think so. Ross had so many opportunities to get rid of Grier and never does so. Realistically, the only way I see Grier getting fired is...

You think tearing it down is a better idea? With Grier? That's bad logic. Be realistic. Grier isn't going away. Best course of action is to win.

Tearing the team down is not a good idea. We have a good QB. We need a good backup QB. We have talent on offense. Thinking that tanking is going...

Offense played well the entire game today. Monday they were clutch at the end, but they were disappointing much of the game.

Pathetic we're happy the team won and still has a slim but nevertheless realistic chance to make the playoffs. Unbelievable. This kind of post is...

In other words you were rooting for us to lose. Just to get that on the record.

4-6.. greatest comeback in Dolphins history still on track lol Anyway, this was a fantastic game. First truly complete game this year, and yet...

Would be amazing if we make the playoffs after 2-6. That would mean we end the regular season well, which is important for the playoffs.

As long as KC doesn't have a perfect season there's something to celebrate. It's imperative the Dolphins remain the only team with that honor.

Offense was somewhat disappointing most of the game, but they were clutch at the end.

Feels good to get the win! 3-6 we're still not mathematically eliminated. Hats off to the defense. Allowed no TDs. Impressive.

They've underperformed over the season, but not the last 2 games. If they can put up 27 ppg consistently they'd be #6 in points scored, not just...

It wasn't enough obviously. So if you want to say 5% of the loss is on the offense I'm with you. But the lions share of the blame is on the...

They lost because of the defense. The only real critique of the offense is Mostert's fumble. You put up 27 points on offense you are not the...

Some of the greatest QBs in history are often called game managers lol. Tom Brady anyone? What matters is how much you increase the team's...

We don't yet have many stats on this yet — how good (or bad) our offense is after the explosive plays are taken away. Like I said, let's see what...

No, what I'm saying is that if we can produce like we did on Sunday when they do take away the explosive play, this will still be an elite...

It's not just one game. It's clear the strength of that argument is slowly receding. Either way, stats suggest offense isn't the issue. Most...

Larger sample (i.e., since McD got here) suggests Tua and the offense are not the problem (except the need for a good backup QB) and defense is...

Wow.. just so everyone can see how incapable you are at understanding simple English. StaleTacos said: To which you said about that quote: lol...

lol no you are lacking in reading comprehension. He was literally talking about "the Tua led offense" when he said "This offense". That was the...

lol.. never tried once.

It's an exact quote. And all those other issues are associated with Tua playing. Don't need luck. You were simply wrong.

Thank you! And like I said earlier, I stopped eating sweets in 2015. No Klondike bar for me.

Give it up. Show some integrity. You said this: StaleTacos said this: Like I said, it's an exact quote AND it's not just about injury. Just...