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I'll bring the beer. :wink2:

Need to give Tannehill one more year, and OG is low on the list, indicating its relative unimportance. If your list is long enough, you will have...

I did see a big difference from him in his ability to react to pressure with movement and extend plays with his feet. IMO that's been the huge...

Does Dawn Aponte know he's with another woman?

Cb, te, lb, de, s, og

His point was that my position is that "everyone but the QB is exactly the same across the league." The post you quoted was designed to show that...

"Optimizing toward ideal plays" was what I was getting at above. Bootlegs and rollouts are not ideal plays in today's NFL.

The issue IMO is that to be highly competitive in the league, you need either top-notch QB play, or an unlikely assemblage of talent around at...

It may seem like it in this context, but in another perhaps I'd readily point out to you, for example, that the 2015 New Orleans Saints were a...

I wouldn't to that far, but I would go far enough to say that variation in talent at the QB position is more responsible for variation in team...

And that would be good theoretically, but if he doesn't get practice in that in games, because he's being "adjusted to" by his own coaches...

But this kind of gets at the point I was making. Rollouts and bootlegs may be more effective for the QB you have, but they may at the same time...

I agree with that. What I meant to say (but didn't) is that the players' talent will place a limit on the degree to which adjustments can make...

The thing about this "tailoring what you're doing to your players" thing is that there's likely a range of that in which success is more probable,...

And that's the issue when the change in play isn't extreme. It gets tougher to pinpoint the cause of the change. It could be random variation,...

It depends on which statistic(s) you're using. In only one case (QB rating) was it his career best, by a 3.1-point margin. He's had two better...

League average 41.2%, standard deviation 7.1%, Tannehill in 24th percentile, ranked 16th of the 22 QBs who threw at least 50% of their team's...

I wish that were the case, but according to Pro Football Focus, his accuracy (controlling for drops) on passes thrown 20+ yards in the air...

That's true, but we'd have to know whether that represents something significantly worse for the Dolphins than it is for other teams to know...

Over eight years, though? I would think there would be variation in OL play over that length of time, in both groups, while there would be far...

If the finding were that the between-group variation was significantly greater, you wouldn't think it would indicate that characteristics of those...

I'm not sure you're getting what I'm saying here -- the idea would be to take let's say eight consecutive years of QB play for two groups of QBs,...

That's a possibility as well. Like I said in the post you quoted, we need a deeper analysis to explore these possibilities. I'm a pro-Tannehill...

What would be interesting to investigate that in my opinion is some study of the trajectories of the careers of other QBs, where it was (or...

How many seasons of play for one QB do you think we'd need to safely say that the sample represented theoretically large enough variation in his...

And there you have the reason why quarterbacks might be more responsible than their offensive lines for their own sacks, in addition to their own...

How about an ANOVA, with the dependent variable's being sack percentage over the course of a season, and the independent variable's being low...

One would think, based on a superficial analysis (and I don't mean that to sound insulting to you). But what if the raging defensive tackle is in...

OK that's clear now. Thanks for taking the time to break it all down like that. Just curious -- is there an offensive line statistic you...

If you believe it isn't correct, I believe it is, and our positions are unlikely to change, then a polite and respectful "agree to disagree" is...

I disagree with everything you've written above, my disagreement with it won't change, and I don't wish to discuss it any further. Please respect...

I have no idea how Tannehill is viewed in the locker room. I was merely pointing out a concept relevant to the issue of supporting a player.

That's merely your opinion. I strongly doubt that the vast majority of other people take issue with being asked politely and respectfully to...

Indeed. Joe Philbin supported Eric Steinbach by not allowing him to play and put his poor performance on tape for other teams to see during the...

Is it okay with you if I simply don't agree with your other points, and state as much? You're certainly still free to believe those points -- I'm...

The concept is sound, but there has to be some balance in the equation. If you support a quarterback who is perceived by his teammates to be...

And we'll have to agree to disagree about that, as well.

We'll have to agree to disagree, then.

This gets exactly at my point that there would have to be significant variation among offensive lines for it to moderate the relationship between...

I didn't ignore it. I read it. I figured it was addressed in post #415.

The problem, though, is that Gase elevated Jay Cutler's play to a level where it had been previously in Cutler's career (and he did the same with...

The same YPA increase applied to the Dolphins would very likely translate to more wins, based on the correlation between YPA and win percentage...

I'll converse with you to the extent that you remain polite and respectful.

I missed this earlier. This here gets at my point above as well, because if it happened in reality, then there would be significant variation in...

Then this is where we're having our problem. I'm looking at the effect of pressure on QBs league-wide (i.e., the post above, with the...

I think I found out where we're differing here. Your dependent variable is pressure, whereas mine is QB play in general.

If there were no offensive line, sure, it would very likely be a moderating variable, but that isn't what we see in the league. What we see in...

More precisely, it's that there is a weak correlation between pressure surrendered on quarterbacks and measures of quarterback play, in part...

I think where we're getting lost here is in the fact that what I'm focusing on overall is the extent to which QB play -- in general -- is...

And is there any significant variation in that among teams, or do all teams do that with roughly the same frequency? If they do, then offensive...

The QB is significantly affected by pressure. What you're espousing here is that offensive line play is a moderating variable between pressure...

Not necessarily. Perhaps they're down big on the scoreboard, and they need to let the receivers get far downfield for a long gain. And perhaps...

I said that was a hypothetical scenario.

And in either of those cases, frequency (and probably degree) pressure on the quarterback is explained far more by quarterback play (i.e., how the...

First we'd have to establish objectively that they don't, second we'd have to establish objectively the degree of that variation (it could be...

The change in QB rating under pressure could conceivably have nothing to do with offensive lines across the league and everything to do with the...

Folks, I entered the thread with a post that took me about two hours of work to complete, based on my own research and analysis. The findings in...

Yes. Now, wasn't that productive?

What's even more rich is when people don't have the basic humility to admit that the issue should be subjected to some objective exploration,...

One further thought on the bolded portion above: there are times when common sense is wrong and "uncommon sense" is right. If we don't explore...

Right. It was more like a "best-case scenario" approach, based on the two external variables (coaching and offensive line) thought to be most...

There is nothing inappropriate about determining a predicted value based on regression equation.

There is an impact, but statistically speaking, as with offensive lines, it's much less than some people seem to believe. Again though, when the...

Of course now we could do the same thing we did above with regard to quarterbacks and offensive lines, where we talk about the measurable effects...

Tell that to the person who posted the webpage and cited it as support for the idea that Ryan Tannehill would've benefitted from Derek Carr's...

That's definitely another possibility, but it certainly won't be reflected in the webpage that got this interchange started. What's reflected in...

If offensive line play affected them all the same, the correlation between offensive line and QB play would be 1.0. Again, the weakness of the...

All QBs are not the same, and that's probably why the correlation between quarterbacks' DVOA and the pass blocking statistic on that page is a...

If you apply the run blocking statistic from that page (Adjusted Line Yards) in the way I did above, it moves Tannehill's 2015 DVOA (-10.6) from...

Based on the statistics at the link above, and based on the correlation between Adjusted Sack Rate (the pass blocking statistic on the page) and...

And all that is true, but how does the statistical projection compare to the "observational" models being bandied about, like for example when...

The run game isn't anywhere near as strongly correlated with points differential in the NFL, however, and so the run game isn't a link in the...

Based on what I posted above, it would be difficult for anyone, even an expert, to determine how many sacks Tannehill was responsible for, because...

There is a 0.40 correlation league-wide between the number of pass dropbacks and the percentage of pass dropbacks in which QBs experience...

Everyone together is right, insofar as if you take the average of all of their viewpoints, you arrive at the conclusion that Tannehill is...

I thought that's what they were doing here? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

This is in fact how it's done, based on my understanding of it.

ALY is the offensive line statistic most strongly correlated with quarterbacks' DVOA. From there it drops very sharpy, with percentage of...

Right, but there will be no more reliable "crystal ball" available than what I provided above. Everything else will pale in comparison, with the...

You can do this, however: There was a 0.62 correlation between Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards (a measure of offensive line play) and...