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How would we know whether the QB makes those surroundings look better than they would otherwise?

My apologies. Per the topic, the only QB I'd draft in the first round if I were the Dolphins is Baker Mayfield. I don't think any of the rest of...

I don't disagree with any of the above (some of it I don't know enough about to agree or disagree), but what if it were the case that under the...

Just as a general practice, I think you should refrain from drafting a quarterback in the first round when you already have an average one, unless...

Wallace thrives when the quarterback sheds pass-rushers and buys time for him to break coverage with his speed, which eliminates his problems with...

He certainly wouldn’t fail, but the odds are very low that he would be is good as Tom Brady, for the simple reason that the odds are very low that...

I don’t think anyone knows whether he’s done developing.

But the article is concluding that he is borderline top-10 by purporting to analyze him in isolation from all of the supposed surrounding weaknesses.

The problem with the conclusion of that article – which is that Tannehill is a “borderline top-10” quarterback – is that being borderline top-10...

That story is very much on target. The team tried to address nearly all of its weaknesses from last year, and every one of those attempts failed....

I’m not sure a record of 8-8 or 9-7 would equal an automatic playoff berth.

The main thing to understand here from my view is that Tannehill’s presence this year would have very likely done nothing to improve the Dolphins’...

That was another problem, but the pass defense's performance placed a ceiling on what this team could achieve, that even Tannehill's typical level...

A major reason this season had little to do with Tannehill's absence was because the pass defense regressed considerably. Believing Tannehill...

If they don't, they should. When passer rating differential for example is associated with 85% of the variation in win percentage in the league...

Surrendering an opponents’ passer rating below 70 is incredibly good.

That's expected when you're talking about QBs in the upper tier cbrad outlined earlier in the thread, in comparison to ones in the middle tier....

What we do know however is that, despite the variation from year to year you're talking about for all quarterbacks, the better quarterbacks vary...

If Brees had been replaced by an average quarterback for example, then in the seasons in which the Saints' pass defense was very poor, the team...

The Saints have made the playoffs only when their pass defenses have been average or better, despite Brees's consistently high level of play. I'm...

Not true, actually. A team needs need at least an average pass defense, even if it has the best QB in the league. Look at Drew Brees's...

I would agree with that if the team hadn’t had one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year. Certainly it can continue to have one of...

I think it matters less whether he has grown, and more the level to which he has grown. The level to which he has grown determines how you need to...

If the team is going to stick with Tannehill, it needs to seriously assess whether it should keep Suh, because Suh’s effect on the pass defense is...

Pennington was the league MVP runner-up that year.

Part of the confusion about Tannehill in this regard lies in the fact that he had a similar, sudden change in play after game three of the 2014...

And as I said above, all of that is going to depend on a team’s pass defense. The lower the offensive passer rating, better the team’s pass...

The league functions in such a way that a top QB enables a team to have only an average defense and still be competitive in the playoffs, and...

More great work -- thank you. At any rate, I believe one needs to pan back and look at how the league functions in this way (as you and I have...

That's great work -- thank you. My next question would be the number of QBs who fell between a standard deviation above and a standard deviation...

I agree with that. He also played in a way that wasn't meaningfully distinct from that during the final 13 games of 2014, Bill Lazor's second year.

I think we first have to define the meaning "top-10 QB" has, before we can determine the meaning of Tannehill's being a top-10 QB (or not). It...

It has everything to do with the nature of the win or the loss and who it was against, and far less to do with whether the game resulted in a win...

More about passer ratings like the one we saw from Trevor Siemian Sunday. Between 2004 and 2016, 3,328 games were played in the NFL. 90 of them...

There is an even more unlikely prospect that the Dolphins' pass defense -- which prior to the Denver game had surrendered an opponents' passer...

I didn’t say the defense played no part. I said I saw no evidence to suggest that it was responsible for how extremely poorly he played....

I can say the same thing. If you didn't see evidence of Siemian's ineptitude, then there's really nothing else to say here.

What tells you it wasn't simply Siemian's ineptitude? If a middle school quarterback took the field and achieved a passer rating of 10, would it...

Trevor Siemian's passer rating was 30.5, which gives an NFL team almost no chance of winning, and I didn't see any evidence to suggest it was due...

Just by way of contrast, the Patriots were called for only two penalties today.

They could use that graph in statistics classes as an example of a strong, positive, linear relationship.

Awesome stuff -- thank you.

The most key defensive statistic of them all (other than points surrendered) is passer rating surrendered, and here's where we are on the season...

Pennington was the league MVP runner-up that year. People took notice.

Where did this idea of a top-five defense come from? The opposing passer rating the team is surrendering on the season has been associated with a...

Remember? He doesn't like any part of his job other than calling plays.

OK well that's a problem. I wasn't aware of that.

But is that kind of behavior going to stop him from functioning at all in the NFL, a la Manziel and his alcoholism?

Johnny Manziel all over again, without the emotional problems, would be a hell of a player. Mayfield is your QB in this draft who's going to be a...

Mayfield's career YPA at Oklahoma is 10.6. How's he pulling that off without an arm?

The more problematic part of that statement in my opinion, that the article really didn’t focus on, was the fact that he said it’s the one thing...

https://www.phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-curious-post-game-response-gase/ Based on his comment there, I think you have to wonder if he isn’t...

The way Mayfield dodged Ohio State's stud defensive line and still made plays this year was amazing. He's the single reason they won that game....

The defense has been surrendering very high opposing passer ratings all year. It has yet to hold an opposing team in any single game to the kind...

You're excluding a key variable. The Dolphins' pass defense surrendered an opposing YPA of 10 against the Raiders. There have been 30 games in...

85% of the variation win percentage in the NFL since 2004 is associated with passer rating differential. The 2017 dolphins are surrendering an...

Cutler is done. http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/payroll-personnel/93-how-quarterbacks-age

That’s the reason I see personally for the emotional flatness. Gase went with his guy instead of Matt Moore, and his guy is neither a leader nor a...

OK thanks — appreciate the feedback. And so then one would need to correlate the Z-scores, correct?

Are you saying that if you have two normal distributions and one of them is sharply peaked and the other is extremely mound-shaped, the two...

I actually think it’s smaller than that, and the reason is because there is relatively little variation among the league’s offensive lines, in...

And you're implicitly echoing there what I've stated above about large versus small sample sizes, by focusing on a very small sample (one play),...

Over the short haul, yes. Over the long haul, no. If the question should arise of whether Peyton Manning for example was any good, nobody says,...

As with what I stated just above, PFF purports to control for those sorts of extraneous factors in theory. What tells anyone that PFF is...

PFF's ratings do that (the boldfaced portion) in theory only. What tells you that -- in practice -- their ratings actually do that validly?

Bench Cutler. Insert Matt Moore.

I think at this point one has to wonder whether training camp is being managed in such a way that the team's offense ends up prepared to play the...

Roughly the same class of quarterback. Interesting, though, how Cutler's graph is more bimodal, indicating less consistency. He's going to...

I chose the league norm on purpose because it seemed as if the person I quoted was basing "garbage" (or the lack thereof) on it.

And I don't think you'd find much difference with Ryan Tannehill. I know for a fact, for example, that Tannehill's career percentage of games as...

If one uses a standard deviation from the average as the cutoff, meaningfully below average would be a passer rating of 78, and meaningfully above...

I think that's more likely to be players like Julius Thomas and Byron Maxwell, and I think there's a good chance that one or both of them is made...

Also, he's good for four games of every 16 like last week's or worse on average throughout his career. One should expect four such games this...

The fact that nobody knows who's right in the above debate suggests that both sides are "right," and the truth is likely somewhere in the middle....

A little tough to think Cutler is any different from his normal self when he's played 24% of his games at yesterday's level or worse, in terms of...

The key defensive stat in terms of winning is passer rating surrendered, and the team was average in that area. It needs a passer rating up...

You have to distinguish between run and pass defense. Pass defense is far more important in terms of winning.

Two equally and relatively unimportant parts of the team -- the run defense and the run offense -- counterbalanced each other, in that the run...

But that's where it stops with both he and Tannehill, assuming the rest of the team overall functions at about the average level, which is about...

We've seen those plays from Tannehill; he just makes them much less frequently than Cutler. On the other hand, there are plays Tannehill has made...

In terms of the degree to which they contribute to their team's chances of winning, Tannehill and Cutler aren't meaningfully different from each...

There is also this:...

And that is the counterargument, that mediocrity at QB can make a franchise stagnate at the average level, as the team neither contends at a high...

Interestingly enough, even when a QB is drafted number-one overall since 2004, he stands only about a 10% chance (1 in 9) of becoming what we...

And when we get to the third round (I posted about rounds one and two above), we're talking about just one QB (Russell Wilson) of the 16 drafted...

By win I meant Super Bowl, and pertaining to the second post above, in the instances in which that didn't happen, the winning team had one of the...

There are basically two ways to win in the league: with an elite QB, and with an average or better one and an elite defense. The problem with...

After settling into Bill Lazor's offense and during a subsequent 12-game stretch in 2014 he produced at about the same level.

As one would expect, the second round is even worse, where only two QBs (Andy Dalton and David Carr) of the 15 drafted since 2004 have been...

I suspect the real reason was that Cutler's skill set provides a much more complete use of Gase's playbook.

The problem with that is that the team would be drafting in the back third of the first round, and the only QB of the eight selected there since...

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/01/clutch-persistence.html

But what I was getting at here originally was the value of the "eye test" in comparison to numerical data, in discussions about a player among...

But are you doing the same thing with Tebow among the fans of the teams he was on? If so I'd suspect he'd show low kurtosis and high positive...

But that's what I was getting at above, in that in that case, your kurtosis for Tannehill would be far greater than for Rodgers, and your skew...

So if you were to use a rating scale of let's say 1 (very bad), 2 (average), or 3 (very good), and you asked the fans of the Dolphins to rate...

So would you say that based on the part of your post I boldfaced above, Dolphins fans on average would rate Tannehill as significantly worse than...

I agree with all that, but what I meant in my post was that Packers fans, let's say, don't disagree as much about the skill level of Aaron Rodgers...

In that sense you could define an "average" QB by how much disagreement there is among the people who watch him closely and use, as you say, the...

I think at that point he would want about the same money Ryan Tannehill would make, and then you have to go with the younger player who is capable...