19th pick as of today (estimation) who you do draft?

Just for the record as there are new people here who can only judge on this year:

1. I thought as a junior Colt Brennan could have been a high first round pick. This was of course during the season as the junior declaration passed in mid January without his name on it. I was of the opinion that if a franchise committed to a system that suited him, much as I do with Graham Harrell, then he could have been a success. There was a lot of chatter about how high he might rise and I have seen nothing from Colt in the NFL that leads me to believe he can't be a very succesful pro passer.

2. Whilst I liked Chris Long as a player, I was always against him being the first overall pick.

3. I thought Jake Long had some issues in pass protection, with his kick slide and with speedy edge rushers that led me to believe that he was better suited to play RT. I thought he could easily play LT but that it might not be his best position. I'm glad to have been proven utterly wrong on that seeing as though he plays for my team. I also note that Mike Maser has done some considerable work on his feet since he was drafted.

4. I felt that Vernon Gholston was in the mix to be the #1 overall pick. It's clear that Miami did as well, as they had four seperate meetings with him, two in Davie, one in Columbus and one in Indianapolis. That was the same amount of meetings that the previous administration held with Ted Ginn and whilst Cameron and Mueller aren't Ireland and Sparano, there were clealry holdovers from the 2007 draft - Chris Grier for example - who were in attendance at all four meetings.

5. I'm not always right.

6. But I am most of the time.

7.

8. This forum is excellent because it's pretty chilled and no-one's opinion means more than anybody elses. That said, constructing an argument as to why a team might or will take a specific player is pretty key. At least I'd like to think so if this forum is to move forwards.

 

You're not that bad despite what people say about you.

 

Bite me, sweetcheeks!

 

Awwww!!! You say such sweet nothings. By the way where am I supposed to bite you?

 

Yeah that Ole Miss Alabama game is as you said a darftniks dream. Peria Jerry played with his hair on fire in the second half of that game, and was a big reason the score was the way it was. Anytime he was singled up against the RG he won that battle. When the Tide moved Caldwell over to help he was shut down much more. The thing about Caldwell is his balance, he rarely is just lunging about trying to make contact. He is very focused, and has a ggod feet and hips. He sinks himself well when absorbing contact and has the ability to then drive off the coil and move his man out of the way. He redirects very well, and as Boomer said has some nice hands and plays with great extension. Here's the balance thing again, most guys who use a great deal of extension can tend to lean out, not Caldwell - he plays very much under control. Dam good prospect if you ask me, and it wouldn't shock me one bit to see the Fins bring this kid in a few times for an interview.

 

As you know, because we've talked about it, but the Andre Smith thing in relation to balance of lackthereof is interesting.

 

Yeah, the comparison of the two players is pretty revealing if you ask me. Smith's stance is wonky as hell, and you can clearly see from how he sets up that he bends at the waist much more than at the knees. I still say he is slow off the ball - maybe he just reacts slowly the snap, but he is always the last man out of his stance on that O-line. If you compared him to Jake Long at the snap, one of Jake's saving graces is the fact he is off the line very fast.

Smith is athletic for his size, but I just don't like what he does in his pass pro, and you highlighted that pretty well. His run blocking isn't all it is cracked up to be either. When he makes solid contact he is very effective, I'll give him that. But he lunges so much when he tries to get to guys. If the defender slides, or shifts laterally Smith struggles to adjust, and if left flailing away, but to his credit he will find the next closest man to him and hit him. But, the point is he should be much better at the initial surge than he is. I could see this guy being the next Leonard Davis in many ways. He shouldn't be a LT in the pros IMO.

 

As I said to you last night, my issue with Smith has always been in pass pro and I was keen to see whether he'd changed and he really hasn't. I think he fires out quickly and has a decent kickslide but he fires out really low and tends to do a hell of a lot of waist bending and leaning to make contact which would worry the hell out of me. He has massive thighs and a huge bubble, but against Ole Miss which I was watching last night, when he was allowing Hardy the edge, he'd get off balance and at times I thought I was watching Phil Loadholt. When he gets his body turned and his base secure, then he's pretty unmoveable and when ends get in to him, he's tough to shed if his feet are under him and that *** is jutting out like Beyonce's. But the slowness to that 6'5 height and the balance that that slowness brings about would give me fits. He walls off defenders well on run plays but if I'm drafting him as my cornerstone left tackle, I'm going to have some real issues if I'm taking him high.

I just couldn't give $60 million to a technique shy lunger.

 

From both of you guys analysis who do you feel is the deserving top rated LT coming out next year since apparently its not Smith?

For me I am finding myself more impressed by Smith from Baylor as each game goes by and Oher seems to be having a much better season.

 

Now I haven't finished watching film, but Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Eben Britton and Jason Smith would be my top 4 although not necessarily in that order. I think Oher looks better than ever and is very smooth, but in terms of draftability, Ed Orgeron said that it's taken him till his senior season to learn the Ole Miss offense. And if you've read Michael Lewis' book on him, that and his retention of information ability is going to throw up some pretty fascinating red flags.

 

To me, it's is not the individual players that we are looking at that interests me, it is the philosophy Tuna and Ireland and Sparano are using, in 08, we took a "upgrade the unit" approach, something that no one expected.

OL Long and Thomas and Murphy
DL Merling and Langford

Do the Draft Gurus think we could see the same thing with say the Linebacking Corps or the Defensive Secondary?

Roth, Crowder, Ayodele, do not strike fear in opposing offenses, and our Oline with Carey as a FA and Satele underperforming and our Defensive Backfield averaging 29 yrs old or older..

 

Lions fans should just be thankful Matt Millen isn't still running things in Detroit. I just can't get behind this guy as a LT in the NFL, and he's gonna hurt someones wallet for the level of play you get. By the way, the rough numbers on Smith in my kick slide time with a stop watch inidcate a 1.08 time from the shotgun formation which is interesting.

Oher has all the skills you look for, but he has so many issues that come with it is crazy.

 

I think you may see a bit more of a mixed pot this time around but you'll likely see the regime doubling up on positions - same as last year. There are still issues to deal with on the interior of this team on both sides of the ball. OLB + ILB is where I look for biggest splash in terms of early picks, and I have a feeling we will eye up a C in the middle rounds (3-4) or even the secondary. I want to go back through my drafting history thing and find out what BP did in his second year as opposed to the first and run something from that. At least that way I may get a little peakaboo as what to expect - maybe.

 

After the last draft I threw my Tuna Draft History away..

To me, the Secondary and LB Corps is screaming for an upgrade, our Oline needs some help at RT and maybe Center, Samson could be injured, and could be a better fit at Guard, but with Smiley and Thomas, that is blocked as well.

And #19 or later is the range that the really solid prospects at skill/speed positions are normally off the board, except for Safeties and ILB and Cb types.

 

No reason to. It was a typical Parcells draft. A lot of people are overlooking the fact that he was riding shotgun in New England and Dallas. Look at what he did in New York when he called the shots: He drafted 14 linemen in 4 years and never drafted a WR or DB higher than the third round.

 

In New York he drafted Mark Ingram and Terry Kinard in round 1.

 

Well...Tuna had never taken a Olineman with a #1 pick, he has taken a DB with #1 (more or less in NE), and he does tend to draft in "units" despite all the flack I caught for posting such a thing last season, as a general tendency Tuna takes OL and LB compulsively...

What I'm suggesting is look at his tendencies, then look at what units need upgrading and the LB corps is in the Draft Day targeting, ditto Olinemen, and our Secondary is oldish for the NFL.

Looking at the Wr corps strategically, we just signed Greg C to an Extension, and we have Ginn locked up for awhile as well, so Wr is probably not on the menu other then a #3 type.

 

Whilst it indicated that Chris Long would be the pick, there are abberations to everything. However, when I looked back at what it did show me I saw that it did lead me to have 6 of 9 picks in my mock to be interior players. I had a offensive player in the 2nd round albeit I had a WR instead of QB, and the numbers bore out that the Dolphins would indeed be drafting a RB in the klater rounds of the draft. There were some lessons learned from that piece and it grows the longer he is here. I did have some merit to it in the end.

I must remind people that the Drafting History I did do covered New England, New York Jets and Dallas thats it. I didn't delve into the stint with the Giants as I tried to keep the info more current. So the numbers are the end all be all of everything Parcells has done, but I think it gives us a good idea of what he does as the game has progressed.

 

For me, I seriously doubt we will take any WR in next years draft. Camarillo is locked up, Ginn the same and is getting better each week. Davone Bess is getting better each week, we have London to work on in the off season and we can always pick through the FA class for a possible 2nd or 3rd WR.


I still go into this years draft with the idea they will pick 2 OL, 3 TO 4 picks between DL and LB and at least 2 picks on the secondary.

 

I think we'll pick a WR Joey. I just don't think it will come until round 4. Maybe in 3, but probably 4.

 

I think guys like Gregg Carr should be on people's radars as a pick for us late in the draft to fill the role soon to be vacated by Wilford. Maybe Ramses Barden for the same reason.

 

Bess and London will have to compete next preseason with larger or faster guys, both can play a bit, and Bess to me is an excellent #3 Wr but that is just me, they might want someone faster like Anthony Armstrong.

If you look at our corp Offensive unit, it is starting to take shape:

Ginn
Camarillo
Bess

Fasano

Ronnie/ P Cobbs third down specialist.

It would not surprise me to see a Center picked and maybe Samson traded or turned into the C/G backup, we need a quality Tackle back up, and ILB and OLB.

We could use another Safety, Jason Allen's time in Miami will not include him playing Safety, I think that is a safe statement.

And it points out, our lack of injuries means guys like JA are strictly back ups, no matter their potential down the road.

My very tentative mock would be

DT/ILB at #19 or higher, then OLB x2, third round we look to the Oline and Secondary..and I would not be a bit surprised to see a Rb slip into the mix in the third round or later.

 

If we do end up picking one than it will be one who can provide help on special teams. I would say any player at any position from round 2 - 7 will be a contributor on Special Teams in College unless it is an OL.

 

Greg Carr is interesting. No concept of route running whatsoever, route rounder extraordinaire, but like you say, they clearly want a big red zone target and that's Carr.

 

Yeah he's raw, but you can get him in the 6th and later because of it and the lack of a true second gear. Has played that same role at FSU for a while, although they do utilize him in the open field and across the middle.

If the coaching staff continues its "place and prupose" mentality with this draft and the team in general going forward then asking Carr to focus on a specific role to begin his career may be the best thing. The emergence of Ginn has truly made this possible. Camarillo has come out too, but to me there were more question with Ginn in terms of fundamentals than Camarillo. Ginn being able to provide a ever growing threat allows the Dolphins to continue to be more role specific within their roster to a degree. The risk reward at that stage of the draft trying to find a starter is infitnitely higher, than a guy who'll log 10-15 snaps in a specific role.

 

The standout issue with Greg is that he doesn't play special teams. So that might be an issue.

 

That may be a big issue. It may also come down to "Gregg, do you want a job?......then play ST". I was unsure if he did or not, but he isn't a certainty to be drafted at all by any means. Who knows, but I think they may live with it if he indicates that he will do it druing his interviews. I am sure he will be asked about that during those sessions at some point, as he must have some knowledge of his situation in terms of draft standing.

 

If you're looking for a late round Nole who plays special teams, then look no further than Tony Carter.

 

Also one who plays a lot bigger than his stature. Warrick Dunn part duex.

 

True but that was 21/23 years ago. I'm not sure Parcells views both positions as valuable enough anymore and in the case of defensive backs, he actually said as much himself. I think his drafts with the Jets are as close as we'll get in regard to his approach to "modern" football.

I didn't mean to criticize you. I merely wanted to point out that Parcells' stint with Jets is probably the most accurate portrayal of his approach to the modern game. People (don't mean you, mate) tend to forget that it wasn't Bill calling the shots on Newman or Glenn. I think when we take a look at the drafts he did call the shots and at his preferences in the drafts he did not, we are left with a pretty clear picture of which positions he values more than others.

As for the Chris Long issue, I'm still inclined to believe that this was Parcells' original favorite. It was Ireland who was particularly high on Jake and Parcells gave him a pretty narrow window to get a deal done or move on.

 

None taken, just reminded me to put that caveat in so that there is no ambiguity. I agree with your second paragraph. It does show how much pull Ireland has to get first crack though. The success Ireland has had with Jake may mean more of a free hand so to speak.

 

Generally speaking, we might have been giving Parcells too much credit in the whole GM and decision making business. From the looks of it, it was Ireland calling all the big personnel shots (Jake Long, Chad Pennington) with Parcells filling more of an advisory role. I agree that the success on these calls will probably mean that Ireland gets even more of a free hand. Eventually, it might also mean that the Parcells era lasts even shorter than expected.

 

Good point. Hey nothing worng with being better than expected after all these years of blindfolded dart throwing for draft picks.

 

Yeah, especially with there being no dart board

 

Interesting to see you think Chris would have been chosen had Parcells been calling the shots.

Do you think Chris having 32 tackles (25 solo) and 4 sacks is low at this point in the season and if so, would it be higher here (just your thoughts?).

I wish it was easier for me to analyze JL. I'm not so good at watching guys play as individuals.. especially OLine because they don't track pancakes or anything like that.

edit:

I read an article that Ireland asked Parcells about Pennington. Parcells said "go for it, kid. it will be your first big move as a GM". I forget the source of the article otherwise I'd link it

 

That's a tough one. You simply don't know what role he would've played here. Given what we did with Matt Roth, he might even work at OLB here if we had drafted him. It's also hard to say whether his stats are low as the Rams are a serious mess right now and it's hard for a rookie to be productive in such a messed up environment. From what I've seen from him (not a whole lot to be honest; I'm already looking forward to the Rams game) he looks okay. I think that he might have been more productive here but that's got more to do with the Dolphins playing hard and the Rams giving up. I will say this, however: I personally thought that he'd be a better fit in the 3-4 down the line.

It's in an Ireland Q&A on the official website:

http://www.miamidolphins.com/newsite/news/ireland/ireland_column.asp

 

Thanks :-)

 

I have to think that the OLs are just going to take a bit of a dip by the time we get to draft day. I've looked for #1 overall potential among guys like Oher, Monroe, Jason and Andre, etc...and I'm just not finding it.

Plus, think back to what happened last year. An unbelievable 8 OTs went in the first round. That's a LOT of new blood out there. The Steelers? Jags? Raiders? Bucs? Those are the only teams that stand out as still needing OTs and of them only the Raiders pick way up top.

Now, we just got a whole lot of new blood at the tailback position. There are running attacks out there that are totally tearing it up. In another thread someone was pointing out that Miami's three-headed tailback attack, which I feel has been tearing it up ridiculously in a total yardage sense...is only the #5 backfield in the NFL. The Giants backfield of Jacobs, Ward and Bradshaw are getting 200+ total yards per game. They're steamrolling opponents to the tune of a 9-1 record. So too are the Titans (10-0). The Falcons (6-4). The Vikings (5-5). The Ravens (6-4). The Dolphins (6-4). The Jets (7-3) operate one of the best ground offenses in the league.

The league has found running backs and they're steam rolling defenses with them. So what is the natural reaction to that? Get yourself some defensive tackles, linebackers, and strong safeties...quick! You've got to rebuild the middle of these defenses because the tighter line splits are killing, the athleticism of the backs coming out of the backfield are killing, and teams are winning football games this way.

Therefore I do see premiums to be placed on guys like Terrance Cody, Demarcus Granger, Sen'Derrick Marks, Peria Jerry, B.J. Raji, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Rey Maualuga, James Laurinaitis, Jasper Brinkley, Brian Cushing, Tyrone McKenzie, William Moore, Taylor Mays, Kam Chancellor.

Coaches hate having the ball run down their throats and the best teams out there are the Giants and Titans and they're winning football games by doing exactly that...shoving it down everyone's throats, and then having their guys come out of the backfield and hit them up for scores.

 

Redskins as well, the most surprising picks last draft were Parmalee and Hilliard, I suspect we will see the same thing this draft, for whatever reasons, perhaps health issue and age, we do not seem willing to bet the farm on Ronnie and Rickey.

For me, I would not be a bit surprised if we draft a FB, an old school type of FB.

 

Here's the thing about Parcells. He does have a history of building the front seven which is smart but you also have to consider who was already on the team. Once you've got Terrence Newman, Aaron Glenn, Rod M. Smith, and Mark Haynes you're not going to draft a CB in the 1st round. So that's the reason Parcells usually addressed other positions early in the draft.

Early in his career Parcells was happy with decent receivers like Earnest Gray, Bobby Johnson, Vincent Brisby, and Michael Timpson because he leaned heavily on his tight ends Zeke Mowatt, Mark Bavaro, and Ben Coates. He obviously values the TE position because he drafted Anthony Becht in the 1st round for the Jets in 2000 and then the Cowboys drafted Witten in 2003. Because of the large role a TE plays on a Parcells team the WR position becomes less of a priority.

Here's an interesting tidbit. He found Laveranues Coles in the 3rd round the same year he drafted Becht.

Some more Parcells history. He has added a key WR in Year 2 every place he's been. Check it out.

Giants Year 2 - WR Bobby Johnson
Pats Year 2 - WR Michael Timpson
Jets Year 2 - WR Wayne Chrebet
Cowboys Year 2 - WR Keyshawn Johnson

Parcells does seem to have a love/hate relationship with his receivers. It was no mistake that Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson ended up in Dallas with him. I know Ireland considers WR a core position. I don't see us going WR in the 1st round in 2009 but it wouldn't surprise me if Parcells goes for that Year 2 WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. Mohamed Massaquoi from Georgia seems like a good fit.