2014 draft thread

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by ToddPhin, May 3, 2013.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I hadn't gotten a chance to comment on this yet on this Forum. Brandon Mitchell transferred from Arkansas to North Carolina State.

    This is a great fit for him if he can learn the playbook in time, which is something that has to be questioned since he reportedly had trouble mastering Brett Bielema's new offense at Arkansas, part of the reason he was still running second place in the quarterback competition there. But there were other things going on as well. There's been suggestions that Brandon Allen is a local kid and is getting support there for that reason. Mitchell himself says that from the start, Allen got all the reps with the 1st string. He's younger and I think the coaching staff are thinking longer term, getting Allen to grow together and get chemistry with the other talented young players on roster. It also looks suspicious to me that Arkansas has an offer and commit from Brandon Allen's younger brother, also a quarterback. Bielema had not made any decisions on the QB race after the spring, but he had started to feel Brandon out on if the worst happened, what would his thoughts be on moving to WR again. Mitchell read the writing on the wall as it was pretty loud and clear.

    When Mitchell's high school coach got the news from Brandon about his discussion with Bielema and decision to transfer, coincidentally Alabama's recruiter was at the high school and he said he wished he'd just taken Brandon to Bama when he had the chance, that Brandon was the only guy making plays against Bama during that debacle of a game where Bama beat Arkansas like 197 to 0 in 2012.

    Even if he ultimately ends up a WR/TE prospect at the next level, he's better off being the QB at NC State this year than making another late move to WR for Arkansas this year like he did last year. The #3 receiving option in a Wisconsin-style offense is going to get what maybe 20 catches? That's maybe 10 or 12 quality film opportunities he'd get to see what he can do with the football in his hands. At NC State playing QB under the same coaches that coached Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, he'll get more on the order of 500 to 600 opportunities on film to show what he can do with the football in his hands. Maybe even more. Harnish and Lynch averaged about 630 touches in 2011 & 2012. That'll be 600 chances for Mitchell to show how he moves, how elusive he is, how aware of the field he is, how quickly he makes decisions with bullets firing at him, how physically strong and powerful he is when contacted, etc.

    And then of course there's the potential he would have to actually do something interesting as a quarterback that perks the ears of evaluators that are becoming more and more hungry for dual threats at the position. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson are setting a new bar. Even Miami plans on getting into the swing of things with Ryan Tannehill running more option. Alex Smith will be running the pistol at Kansas City. If Jake Locker ever pans out he'll be a guy that damages as much with his feet as his arm. Christian Ponder has that potential as well. Andrew Luck had like 300 rushing yards and 5 TDs as a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been hurting teams with his legs for years. Now we have E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith. Teams are hungry for this. If guys like B.J. Daniels, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Johnson, Tyler Thigpen, Dennis Dixon and Joe Webb can get looks at the position, there's no reason Brandon Mitchell can't.

    When I watch Mitchell I see a gifted physical specimen athletically, a well muscled 6'4" and 239 lbs guy (that weight was recently verified by Brandon himself on a phone interview) with speed in the 4.5's. I also see a guy with a good throwing motion and decent mechanics who can throw the football a country mile. His accuracy isn't scattershot by any means. I think he's got much better accuracy than Daniels did. Refinements like ball placement still escape him but that doesn't mean the accuracy is bad. His timing and execution are surprisingly good. He just has to cut down on the brain fart decision making he does at times. I don't necessarily expect him to take the NCAA by storm the way Cam Newton did...but it's not TOTALLY out of the question, either. Or at least, it's no more out of the question than it was when Newton was just transferring from Blinn to Auburn and nobody saw him coming.

    As a college football fan I love this transfer. I'm going to get plenty of opportunities to watch Brandon Mitchell play football and I think it's going to be fun. Probably maddening at times, but probably also fun.
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've mentioned him before but Donte Moncrief deserves mention right along side Marqise Lee, Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins. Those guys are kind of in a class unto their own at the WR position.

    As has been brought up in the "Freaks" thread, Moncrief measures 6'3" and 228 lbs, runs a 4.44 with a 39 inch vertical and 11'1" broad jump according to his WR Coach. The enormous physical ability is evident on tape. He is built very, very well...built for speed and power. His body control, feet, quickness and acceleration are all at the level of a GOOD pro receiver. He plays smooth and in control, and he treats the football in the air the way it needs to be treated. He is a top tier specimen and while he may lack the pure STRENGTH of a Mike Evans, he has more speed than him which may translate better to the next level. It's really interesting how much he seems like a combination of Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins.

    He absolutely torched a good Mississippi State secondary in the Egg Bowl, and did even better against LSU's secondary. He could've had like 300 yards and 4 or 5 TDs in that LSU game. Nobody could cover him. Very literally, nobody could cover him. They tried multiple different defensive backs. Same thing happened in the Egg Bowl. Johnthan Banks actually had to be taken off Moncrief because he was getting burnt to a cinder. Darius Slay did not do much better. His production is inconsistent because Bo Wallace did not provide him with good QB play in my opinion.

    When you consider the potential flaws that the guys at the very top have, between Marqise Lee's mental lapses, Sammy Watkins' arrest charges on drugs, and Mike Evans' potential lack of speed, Donte Moncrief could be the best overall wide receiver prospect in the 2014 NFL Draft come draft day.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    CK did you know that the kid from penn state transferred to USF?
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Yes.
     
  5. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    You will see Devin Smith rise up a lot of draft boards....he has refined his route tree and will hopefully have a more accurate Braxton Miller this year.
     
  6. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Question for anyone who knows....Has there been an undersized LB in college who's moved to safety successfully in the NFL? I was just taking a look at Southern Cal and Dion Bailey stood out as a really solid coverage guy (with the metrics to back it up, 50% burn rate, 9 passes defensed on 46 targets - comparable to a good safety) with solid tackling skills. It looks like he's only listed 6'0", 210 though. Was wondering if anyone had an example of a guy like that moving back to safety and having success? Bailey started off as a safety at USC. Examples for the opposite (a big S to LB) are pretty salient, but can't think of any the other way.
     
  7. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Can't really think of any conversions, let alone successful conversions. I know Jamoris Slaughter who was drafted by the Browns played some LB despite being listed in his bio as a S. But, I don't think that should count as he predominantly played S.
     
  8. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    that's a tough one. With how many of these guys are becoming hybrid type SS/LB I don't see why it couldn't be possible with Bailey having experience in both roles. Adrian Wilson comes to mind who plays like a linebacker half the time (not to be confused with nickel). Kam Chancellor too IIRC.
     
  9. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I believe Dion Bailey is moving back to safety this year at USC.
     
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  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That won't be a concern in the least. Was nothing more than a great kid doing something stupid. Sammy pretty much embodies everything you as a GM want in a player. High character, humble, incredibly determined & motivated, hard working, professional, coachable, great teammate, awesome representative of the team (genuinely cares about the program, school, and fan base). Visiting high school recruits love him and look up to him b/c even at Sammy's young age he's become somewhat of a role model for them. Elite talent, but from day 1 has played like he has something to prove; that's built into his mentality as he refuses to let himself turn into another Fort Myers underachiever to put it nicely. Spent a ton of time watching film and learning coverages etc to prepare himself for his freshman year.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Arrested with possession of marijuana and prescription pills sans-prescription?

    Forgive me but I think your Clemson loyalty is showing through when you say that "won't be a concern in the least".
     
  12. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    You can think it's "Clemson loyalty" but it's the truth. The kid is a legitimate class act, and teams will do their research and see it for themselves quite easily. I will be shocked beyond belief to see an NFL team dock Watkins for character reasons. It won't happen.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's really very simple. You're arrested on drug possession, it docks you. It doesn't get more simple than that. He can claim that was the only time he ever had drugs, but no team and no person in their right mind is going to believe him. He can claim he's not doing anything stupid like that anymore, and teams will be (appropriately) skeptical. You said, "won't be a concern in the least". That's just a false statement, period...IMO.
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I should probably clarify, and that's my fault. It initially will be a concern which will cause teams to conduct due diligence, as they probably should do with any potential 1st round pick. Upon investigation they'll come away feeling the drug possession isn't a concern and won't hinder a decision to draft him b/c at the end of the day, Sammy's past and learned from mistake wont supersede how great a kid he is, the immense amount of character he exudes, his insane work ethic, and his overall dedication to being the best player, teammate, and person he can be. During the season, his entire focus is on football, the upcoming opponent, and school work.

    It wasn't a coincidence he had such a breakout freshman year. He earned it through the rigorous preparations he made by learning the offense, watching tons of film, developing his route running, building his strength, and increasing his speed & endurance, all before his first game. Heck, this was a true freshman who learned Chad Morris's complex offense and had himself physically prepared to play in the demanding up-tempo nature of it from day 1, and even greater- earned the coaches trust to start as a true freshman, something Charone Peake, the nation's #2 WR recruit, couldn't do (barely saw the field with 4 receptions). Talent aside, if an NFL team could have an entire roster comprised of Sammy Watkins, it would be one heck of a team. He's a special kid. A drug possession won't take away from that.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    If you're saying that ultimately it isn't going to affect his draft standing then I think you could be right. That's a definite possibility. I've seen worse go high.

    But I stand by what I originally said which was that with Watkins' off field concerns hanging over his head, with Mike Evans' potential speed concerns hanging over his head, and Marqise Lee's field maturity and mental lapses dinging his draft stock...you could make the case that Donte Moncrief is the top receiver prospect because in addition to being really talented, he's also the "cleanest" of the four.
     
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  16. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's fair enough. Of the four, Evans probably intrigues me the most.

    You know what would be insane, if the Rams draft Watkins & Evans to pair with Tavon. I would pull that string if I ran their team, especially with few team needs that 2nd & 3rd round picks can't address.
     
  17. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I think the Rams will be just fine at WR with Brian Quick, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin.

    Quick was showing some real signs of progress late in the year, in 2014 the Rams will be dominating those stout defenses in the NFC West.
     
  18. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's fine and dandy but there's a clear difference between Quick & Bailey and Evans & Watkins. One trio makes you roughly an average receiving corps. The other makes you potentially the league's best.
     
  19. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Maybe they should just use every early round pick on WRs instead of developing the young guys they ALREADY spent high picks on. Rams are going to be fine at WR, so direct your fantasy elsewhere Nancy.
     
  20. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One guy I'm interested in watching is Brandin Cooks, WR from Oregon State. I noticed him while watching Wheaton, nice quickness and a deep ball threat. I don't think he's as fast as Wheaton, but he's still got good speed. Really great YAC, around the same as Tavon (8.3 yards/catch), except far more of Cooks' YAC came on deep receptions compared to Tavon's screens and short passes. Top 10 in plays over 25 yards, right up there in good company with guys like Stedman Bailey, T. Williams, Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Marqise Lee.

    I'll be curious to see if he racks up more yardage with Wheaton gone and as the the number 1 in the offense. I do wish he had better QBs, it's rough how often Oregon State QBs missed their big time WRs.
     
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  21. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  22. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Remember they also got Stedman Bailey. And they Chris Givens as well, he was really good last year. I watched a lot of tape of Brandon Gibson (before we signed him, and after). I tried to like what I was seeing with Gibson because the stats were decent, but I just couldn't, but that's a different story. Point is there were times when the coaches tape was grainy enough that before the snap you were thinking, "Is that Gibson? Or Givens?" and then within a second of the snap you know immediately, "Oh damn, that's Givens". He just moves at a different speed and was really difficult for defenses to handle. But he's not a tiny guy either.

    I've never really been a believer in Brian Quick (although he made one touchdown play last year that was eye opening, still it was just the one), but between Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Chris Givens...that's going to be a good unit. You could say they really need some size in there and I'd agree, but then that's what Jared Cook is there for I suppose. Also they drafted Brian Quick on the cusp of the 1st round and I imagine they think he can be a decent large/physical #4, at the least. I'm not sure if they're right, but if the aim is to make him a large/physical #4 type then that's a big time lowering of expectations from where they were when he went on the cusp of the 1st round. I thought he was overrated before but at that point that might be just about right.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You and Fin-O are essentially forgetting the best wide receiver they have on the roster at the moment, even after the drafting of Tavon...Chris Givens. He was T.Y. Hilton good.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Tennessee DT Daniel McCullers is being overrated a little. I'm seeing him placed by some services in the top 10.

    I think this is indicative of an old way of thinking that has been changing over the last half decade or so. Right now I think people that evaluate draft prospects are very LIGHT in the filmwork department, and more heavy and dependent on things like reputation, gimmick, size listings, speed listings, etc. And even the filmwork that has been done, the variance in the interpretations of the film is going to be very wide because the 'consensus' is yet to be formed. Once that starts forming, peoples' filmwork begins to be invariably affected by this consensus, essentially they know what they're supposed to think of a guy before they even watch him and that affects what they think of him. So it's not surprising to me that a Daniel McCullers is being rated this high, so early. It would, however, surprise me if he kept this standing all the way through draft day.

    You have three archetypes among those inside guys up front. You have guys that are huge and unnaturally quick for their size, guys that are smaller and unnaturally strong for their size, and guys that are somewhere in between fitting an average prototype. There's always going to be demand for the in between guys so long as they've got talent. But a while ago there was a big premium on the huge guys that were surprisingly quick for their size, the so-called "Planet Theory" players. Gradually, the increase in importance of the quick passing game in the NFL has seen a shift away from that. Guys who are smaller and surprisingly strong for their size are starting to come into style a little bit, and the NFL is trending further in that direction. The old planet theory guys are seeing their values diminished and their roles limited.

    Daniel McCullers is a monstrously sized guy. He's a space eater that dominates his area of operation, which is pretty small because he's so large he's not got the speed and range of other guys. He also doesn't consistently affect the passer. It's good to have one of those in your arsenal. But I don't think teams are going to be willing to pay a lot for them anymore, pretty soon.

    Meanwhile, you've got two guys who are legitimately small for the position in Will Sutton and Aaron Donald. Five years ago or so, these guys don't go higher than the 4th or MAYBE 3rd round, because of their size. But now, I could imagine either of them going 1st round, following in the footsteps of the guy who is in my opinion THE best defensive tackle in the NFL at the moment, Geno Atkins. To some extent you might put Roosevelt Nix in this category although I think his size is so extreme on the small size that he'll probably still go low and be converted as a defensive end. But in another time, that guy wouldn't even be drafted period, most likely.
     
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  25. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    You will have too forgive Todd, he is a ******.

    And yes I over looked Givens, it doesn't suck to be a Rams fan.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Todd we Todd did.

    If Jake Long works out then they should have good receivers and a good pass protecting tackle tandem. But they could be in the same position as we are as far as their tailbacks and run blockers go, putting all the pressure on Bradford, Givens, Austin, Bailey and Cook to get their chemistry immediately and produce not just a 'decent' pass offense, but a really good one. Oh, and do it against the 49ers and Seahawks four times a year.
     
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  27. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    No, I agree, Givens looked good. Good enough I had him on my fantasy team and started him too. (KO return yards count)
    I wouldn't draft both of those receivers (Watkins & Evans) but I'm playing the odds that not all of St Louis's receivers work out the way they desire this year and could be left potentially staring at a top receiver next year if the value is there. The biggest thing that concerns me is they might have 3 guys whose best position is in the slot, unless my recollection about last year's use and intended future use of Givens was wrong. Obviously that doesn't mean they have to stick to that after drafting Tavon but I thought I recalled hearing the Rams saying last year they wanted to develop him into a slot receiver.

    On a side note, that's a lot of speed between Tavon & Givens. Unfortunately Givens won't be the fastest Ram anymore. lol.
    Gotta say though, it would be a nice onslaught of speed with Tavon, Givens, and Sammy Watkins.
     
  28. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I agree. McCullers doesn't impress me at all at the moment. NFL linemen will own him. This reminds me of LSU's Herman Johnson who was plugged as a 2nd rounder early due his mammoth size, but the NFL saw him as a 5th.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Nah Chris Givens is a pure outside guy to me. I don't know if the Rams ever said anything about him being in the slot but they didn't do that with him much in 2012 as a rookie. They had Danny Amendola in the slot first and foremost (80%), then Austin Pettis (60%), then Steve Smith (53%). They only had Givens in there on 15% of his snaps. That was more than Gibson or Quick, but not by much.

    I think Stedman Bailey plays the outside. I would have drafted him thinking he's an outside receiver first and a slot receiver second. Tavon Austin is the pretty clear slot guy in that town. Bailey can be used there and might split up about 50/50 which fits in with what they do schematically. Chris Givens is pure outside and Brian Quick is pure outside. It's Austin Pettis who probably gets screwed in this.

    Chris Givens is faaaast. On the field. He and Tavon Austin together give you serious homerun ability while Stedman Bailey gives you a red zone threat and pure receiver who runs routes, gets open and plays the football. I like what they have there.
     
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  30. NUGap

    NUGap Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Speaking of....

     
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  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Looks like Swope being held out of activities because of his concussion issues..

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-dealing-with-effects-of-college-concussions/

    "Cardinals rookie receiver Ryan Swope dropped in the draft because he had four concussions at Texas A&M. Now the effects of those concussions are holding him back at Organized Team Activities.

    "Teammate Larry Fitzgerald said on SiriusXM radio (via ESPN.com) that Swope has missed practice time while working through issues related to the concussions he suffered in college."

    Interesting..
     
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  32. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Funny that Dane Brugler (CBSsports) and Matthew Fairburn (SB Nation) both released David Fales profiles on the same day. So who's copying whom? lol.
    ..... or are they both copying me? :shifty:

    Brugler also just talked up Clemson DE Vic Beasley as a potential breakout player. Hmph.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Everyone is getting started on the QBs right about now and David Fales, Teddy Bridgewater and Tajh Boyd are the three most obvious choices from a top-down perspective...so it's not surprising there are matching timelines here.

    I'm waiting for them to get to Tyler Russell. He continues to intrigue me quite a bit. The guy I sort of don't get the hubbub about is Zach Metterberger.
     
  34. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    There's hubbub over Mettenberger? eww
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Matt Millen former GM of a prof football franchise has Anthony Barr as the #5 linebacker in the draft..

    Prince shembo #4

    Chris Borland #3

    CJ Mosley #2

    Shayne Skov #1

    He thinks Skov and Mosley are a cut above the rest..

    Anything Barr will go before any of those guys.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol
     
  37. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    But what does he say about the WRs/QBs? :wink2:
     
  38. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Not sure why he's reduced OLB, ILB, and rush LB into one category.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Because he's Matt Millen.
     
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  40. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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