Graded my draft a b but says ill finish 10th. I can see it being accurate. I'm banking on a few things. 1) Welker staying healthy, someone getting Tavon the ball OR Bowe having a bounceback year. 2) My IDP racking up a lot of tackles. 3) MJD having a strong year in Oakland. I think he will honestly but who knows. Perhaps Blount stealing carries from Bell which I see as probable.
I like Dez better then any of them but I dont want a 3rd cowboy and I wouldnt move Forte or Martin for him. I think both are in store for monster years. Martin has no one behind him with Sims hurt and should be a lock for 20+ touches /game. Psyched for what hes gonna do. Benjamin may interest me above the rest....offer me something to give me an idea of what you want...
why would I wanna trade Dez for Martin? I could've had him instead of Dez if I wanted. Dez and Demaryius virtually guarantee me 270+ points each and are significantly more of a sure thing than 1st/2nd round RBs. They both have a high ceiling and an incredibly high floor. Meanwhile, 1st and 2nd round RBs tease us with the potential of a rare 300+ point season but the reality is they're quite volatile as a collective [see CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Trent Richardson, and MJD last year who all scored less than 175 points, and Peterson, Murray, and Lacy scoring less than 240]. 6 RBs scored more than 250 points in 2012; only 1 of those finished with more than 250 last year- Marshawn Lynch. 8 WRs scored more than 250 points in 2012; 5 of those finished with more than 250 last year. Last year, only 5 RBs finished with more than 250 points; 8 WRs did it. The top 10 RBs of 2012 averaged 267 points. In 2013 that same 10 averaged 180. The top 10 WRs of 2012 averaged 262 points. In 2013, that same 10 averaged 213. So that all being said, with my 1st & 2nd round picks I'm looking for maximum expected points at minimal risk, hence me taking Demaryius & Dez who have a high probability of averaging 265+ points between them since their floors are so high by nature. Murray, Ball, or Martin *could* surprise with a 300+ point season b/c the nature of their position creates a higher ceiling, but the nature of it also makes for a much lower floor, thus the probability is they're more likely to not surpass a 250 point average among them. Dez & Demaryius combined to average 265 points the past 2 years. Only 4 RBs surpassed that in 2012, and only 4 did in 2013. Not to mention it was an entirely different 4 in 2013. So rather than drafting with the hopes of hitting a home at a more volatile position- running back, I'll take my greater assured points in rounds 1 and 2 with an elite WR/TE and then look for value later on to win the league. There are only 2 rounds in the draft where we're virtually guaranteed 230+ points- rounds 1 and 2, so IMO the best draft strategy is to make sure I get those points first and foremost b/c if I don't, I'm at a severe disadvantage. I might've sacrificed a little at running back, but in doing so I actually maximized my expected points through the first 4 rounds b/c an expected 275 for Dez, 275 for Demaryius, 275 for Cordarrelle, and 200+ for Joique Bell is greater than 250 for Murray, 275 for Dez, 230 for Zac Stacy, and 210 for Larry Fitz, Cruz, Garcon, or White. That's 1025 vs 965. Then in round 5 I took Edelman because I expect 215+ points from him which is at least 35 more than what we'd expect from a late 5th round WR. I did this at the expense of Ben Tate who realistically would have a good season to finish with 200 points. Instead of Tate I went with Fred Jackson in round 8 who I expect to score 185+. So I sacrificed 15'ish expected points at RB2 to gain 35'ish expected points at Flex with Edelman. I followed this same approach in round 6 with Jordan Cameron. We all have our own strategies, but this just happens to be mine when picking at the end of round 1 where you're immediately at a disadvantage against GMs in the first 3 draft slots who benefit by having 3 picks in the first 27. There's no reason to make that worse by drafting a running back at #11 [the 7th RB taken] who lasted till the end of round 1 because he's viewed as inferior to the backs drafted ahead of him. If the first 4 GMs draft the top 4 RBs [McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte], and I draft from the next tier of RBs [Murray, Ball, Bernard], then on paper I'm immediately playing catch up. I mean, if it's a head to head matchup of the first tier backs vs the second tier backs, the second tier backs are probably losing, so why would anyone wanna set themselves up to lose with their 1st round pick when they could instead look to gain an advantage at WR? I'm not gonna fret RB2 since the position is so volatile. Adrian Peterson finished 8th last year after 1st the year prior. Moreno, Fred Jackson, Woodhead, and Joique Bell finished top 14, and Zac Stacy played at a high level the the last 2/3rds of the season, as did Rashad Jennings. Last year, there were 13 3rd round and lower running backs who finished with more points than 1st round Ray Rice; 14 with more than 1st round Spiller; 19 with more than 1st round Richardson; 27 with more than 1st round Foster; and 41 with more than 1st round Doug Martin. The first 5 running backs drafted last year finished with an average RB ranking of 28.4, with an average points total of 180.2. Meanwhile, the elite first 4 WRs drafted last year finished with an average ranking of 5.8, with an average of 268 points. So for me personally, because of this volatility, I'd rather look to gain advantages at WR, TE, Flex, DEF, and grab a Tier 2 QB with upside and then play the numbers game at running back by drafting a handful of mid to lower round guys with the potential for a couple to creep into RB2 and even RB1 status.
Jesus, I only meant it in a way like I knew such a trade would probably require one of them to be involved.
I know. I decided to go a step further and cave in by giving you and whoever else some insight into my award-winning fantasy football strategy. Some might thank me for such a post. You're welcome.
My issue is that even if he IS really good, I doubt he puts up starting TE fantasy numbers with the diversity they have in the passing game. He's a better pickup in the dynasty league than ours probably.
Plus there's the complexity of New England's offense to consider that has a history of befuddling players new to it.
Haha I'm glad I did. I was thinking about doing it a few hours ago but said nah then had a change of heart Also put him on IR in the GML. Stash him!
Yeah I go to the page and see him as a free agent, go to just Sanu, click submit. "Sorry but Josh Gordon is currently on a roster" SECONDS. I hope he stays suspended
Oh man I was worried he was gone. Usually Todd is always on the WW. Had to drop Eifert for him though.
Holding off on trading Steve Smith & Bernard Pierce for now. No sense for me to sell low and give someone a bargain when their values are on the rise.
So I made the huge mistake of starting Blount. I thought Pittsburgh would get down near the goal line and he'd score at least one TD. Well I was terribly wrong and he ended up with .80 points. I outsmarted myself. Really need Welker to get back soon. If Bowe can have a bounce back season I'll actually be pretty strong in my flex positions even if I lack HB depth. However until those two things happen I'm stuck deciding between MJD and Allen Hurns on a weekly basis as my second flex. SMH.
bummer. I think Bowe will remain remain a really bad play and pick up where he left off last year [57/673/5] or KC's offensive inefficiency and weaker defensive play will allow him to turn it around. The Oline is dismantled so Charles won't be as effective, forcing the offense to throw more on 2nd & 3rd.... and the weaker D should force more 2nd & 3rd and garbage time throwing as well. So it's a tough call.
I'm forced to go with Bowe today. Can't risk Jeffrey not playing. Sent from my Nexus 10 using Tapatalk
WTF was that crap Forte? Laid a freaking egg at the worst time. And of course Doug Martin missed the game. FML.
