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Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Galant, Jul 18, 2019.
Jake Fromm Twitter thread from Travis:
QB's to open segment
Since there is no guarantee that we will pick #1, I am happy to see others emerge like Joe Burrow.
Here's PFF's Week 4 Heisman race video - Joe Burrow ranks top again:
They rate him as the most accurate QB in NCAA football right now.
And here's their Week 4 article on highest rated QB's:
"1. JOE BURROW, LSU
Burrow has 1,520 yards through the air this season and already has thrown more touchdowns than he did all of last season with 17 passing touchdowns in 2019. His last three outings have seen him finish with an elite overall grade as his game against Vanderbilt seemingly matched his outing against Texas and he’s primed to run the SEC gauntlet if he plays the way he has through four games. His 11 big-time throws are the fourth-most in the country and his adjusted completion percentage of 86.2% is the best among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts.
2. SKYLER THOMPSON, KANSAS STATE
Thompson wasn’t in action this past weekend after defeating Mississippi State in Week 3. We look back to what we wrote last week:
Thompson has only dropped back to pass 60 times, needing just 36 completions to reach seven big-time throws while limiting himself to just one turnover-worthy pass. He only averaged 9.2 yards per pass but has an elite-level adjusted completion percentage and has added a solid rushing attack when tasked with it. Thompson will have to keep his big-time throws coming at a high rate if he wants to hold off the guys below him who have a ton more attempts than he but as of right now, through three weeks, Thompson is the second highest-graded quarterback in the country.
3. JAKE FROMM, GEORGIA
Finally needing a big-time moment from their quarterback, Fromm delivered against Notre Dame. He now has three game grades above 85.0 and been elite when tasked with throwing the football. He’s averaging a depth of target of 9.6 yards past the line of scrimmage so far while attempting just 82 passes. He’s found his receivers in open spots but also put perfectly-placed balls more often than not allowing his receivers to make some big-time catches in the process. He’s rolling at the right time as the Bulldogs are heading into SEC play.
4. TYLER JOHNSTON III, UAB
Needing just 71 pass attempts to achieve 10 big-time throws, Johnston III is a big play waiting to happen. If you haven’t watched UAB football this season, you’ve missed out as Johnston is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt and targeting passes 15.7 yards downfield per pass. He’s leading the country, currently, with seven touchdowns on deep passes (20+ yards) and has been extremely efficient throwing passes over the middle of the field this year.
5. JUSTIN FIELDS, OHIO STATE
Fields has added a dynamic passing attack to the Ohio State offense that they haven’t seen in a decent amount of time, averaging 12.4 yards downfield per target. He’s made highlight-reel play after highlight-reel play and is among the nation’s leaders in several of PFF’s critical factors such as passing grade from a clean pocket, where he’s tied with the aforementioned Joe Burrow.
6. JALEN HURTS, OKLAHOMA
Hurts was off last week as the Sooners have their conference opener against Texas Tech in Week 4. We look back at what we said last week:
Speaking of threats with the ball in his hands on the ground, Hurts not only leads quarterbacks in total rushing yards but he also leads them in designed rushing yards with 257 on 25 carries. Of his 37 carries, 19 of them have converted either a first down or a touchdown and he’s completing over 80% of his passes through three games. He’s firmly in the discussion as the nation’s top dual-threat quarterback as he holds that advantage over Fields so far.
7. ANTHONY GORDON, WASHINGTON STATE
After throwing nine touchdowns against UCLA, it’s no doubt that we were going to see Gordon rise in the rankings after finishing with a 90.7 overall grade in the loss to the Bruins. He’s tied for the national lead in big-time throws, unleashing 13 of them to date while he’s thrown a catchable pass on 83.0% of his attempts so far this year, ranking third among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
8. TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA
Tua has not needed to do a whole lot so far this year, seeing 66.8% of his passing yards come after the catch. No fault to him, however, he’s finding his open receivers in stride and allowing them to do the damage downfield as he truly has the nation’s best receiving corps with Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. He is playing a bit more conservatively through four weeks than what we became accustomed to last season but Tagovailoa’s deep ball is perhaps one of the best in the nation and he’s uncorked four big-time throws on downfield passes compared to zero turnover-worthy plays.
9. BROCK PURDY, IOWA STATE
Stringing together elite performances will be key for Purdy as he bounced back from a rough outing (weather delay in mind against Iowa) in Week 4 against UL-Monroe, ending the weekend as our #GameDayMVP and landing on our National Team of the Week. Purdy accounted for six total touchdowns in the game against the Warhawks, throwing for three scores and running for three more. He’s an elite athlete and if he can continue to hit his stride as he did against UL-Monroe, Big 12 defenses will certainly struggle to stop him.
10. JAMIE NEWMAN, WAKE FOREST
The nation’s highest-graded passer on throws at least 10 yards downfield, Newman has been dominant running the Wake Forest offense. The fast-paced Demon Deacons attack is a thing of beauty when run to perfection, which is what Newman has done through four weeks. He’s throwing catchable passes at an incredibly high rate and has thrown three more touchdowns on seven fewer attempts than he did all of last season. He’s added a rushing element to the Wake Forest attack as well, gaining 130 yards on designed carries while scoring three touchdowns on the ground this year. If he keeps this up, the nation will be looking at a mid-November contest between Wake Forest and Clemson that could pit top-10 teams together to basically crown an eventual ACC Champion"
Yahoo Sports piece on QB's
Some odd comments in there, though. Raises an question I haven't heard anyone else ask - does Tua's left-handedness bring an extra challenge for scripting an offense, since everything might be reversed?
Doesn't say over what period, distance or number of throws.
And some Tua highlights mid-season:
Honestly, if you are an NFL team owner looking for a new coach, just give Lincoln Riley all the money and see what happens. Interesting fit for teams like Atlanta, Dallas
Jordan Love thread - updated - click and follow the thread:
Thread from Travis on Justin Herbert:
Watched the Oklahoma game myself. Ehlinger wasn't bad. Not convinced by Hurts. Hurts' supporting cast was clearly superior to Ehlinger's, so that's the difference in result. It's admin interesting comparison with Tua because he gets knocked for having great receivers but I'll say this, Tua with good receivers > Hurts with good receivers. You can just see the difference.
What I will say in Hurts' favour is that his physical size and strength are clear assets. When he runs he has power and on one play he was able to hold onto the ball behind his back even with a defender having a hand on it and falling down. It's good decision making that is questionable at times, and his accuracy can waver.
Tua with his first interception of the season.
Not sure if there any QB's left with 0 INTs now.
And here's a little look into JB:
Some more quick reads:
And here's PFF's Top 10 through Week 6:
10. UTAH: TYLER HUNTLEY
The nation’s most accurate thrower in terms of catchable passes this season, Huntley has thrown seven big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy pass. He’s averaging a shallower depth of target than any season to date but holding a 9.9 average yards per attempt, which is higher than any season prior. He’s currently the nation’s second highest-graded quarterback on throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, completing 25-of-35 for 694 yards and five touchdowns against zero interceptions. Four of those incompletions have been dropped by his receivers and he’s leading the country by a large margin in terms of adjusted completion percentage on throws targeted 10+ yards downfield. When given time to look downfield, Huntley has been one of the nation’s best and that’s indicative of his top-10 ranking here.
9. IOWA STATE: BROCK PURDY
Following up an incredible season in 2018, Purdy is hitting his stride despite two losses to start the 2019 season. Much like the aforementioned Huntley, Purdy is dominant on throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, completing 43-of-74 attempts for 945 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s thrown nine big-time throws on such attempts and is an exceptional athlete with the ball in his hands. He’s ripped off 246 yards on the ground so far this year, including five touchdowns and six carries of at least 10 yards. With elite game grades in his bag, the sky is limit as the Cyclones push through Big 12 play this year.
8. ARIZONA: KHALIL TATE
Perhaps the nation’s most electric dual-threat quarterback when healthy, Tate has ripped off an impressive 12 rushing conversions (first downs + touchdowns) while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. No one on the field is as fast as Tate on the ground and he can make defenders miss at ease. That all goes without saying that he’s improved his passing grades to career-high, near-elite levels this year. He’s completing 67.5% of his attempts and averaging 9.1 yards per pass through the air. He has the 35th-ranked adjusted completion percentage to boot and as he continues to play at a healthy level, there may be no stopping him as he’s approaching overall grade levels he saw during his Heisman candidacy season of 2017.
7. WAKE FOREST: JAMIE NEWMAN
The nation’s most underappreciated quarterback through six weeks, Newman is the country’s fifth highest-graded quarterback on throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, completing 33-of-58 attempts for 835 yards and 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Overall, he’s thrown the fourth-most yards on deep passes (602) and possesses top-20 marks when kept clean from pressure and without play-action. He’s found his playmakers with ease and has learned to trust them in contested situations where only they can make the plays. Currently, the Demon Deacons have just one hurdle between them in the Clemson Tigers towards a potential ACC Championship game appearance with the way that their signal-caller has been playing.
6. GEORGIA: JAKE FROMM
He hasn’t been tasked with much through the first six weeks of the season but when his team has needed him, Fromm has delivered. He connected on many sharp passes during the team’s victory over Notre Dame and he’s just been an accurate passer who takes what the defense gives him so far. He’s avoiding negatively-graded plays at an extremely high rate while putting forth positively-graded attempts at another absurd rate in its own regard. Fromm has the nation’s second-highest passer rating without play action at 132.0 as that is a critical factor towards success not only at the collegiate level but at the NFL level as well. Not shockingly, he has top-20 figures in adjusted completion percentage and passer ratings both under pressure and when kept clean from pressure.
Previewing the top Week 7 matchups in college football!
5. TEXAS: SAM EHLINGER
The top five wouldn’t be complete without Ehlinger as he’s currently thrown for 10 big-time throws (15th) while limiting himself to just four turnover-worthy passes. He’s averaging a deeper depth of target than year’s past and still sitting with a strong 75.4% adjusted completion percentage. His offensive line is playing well ahead of expectations and giving him a clean pocket on 75.6% of his dropbacks. He’s rewarded the Longhorns with the country’s 14th-best passer rating when kept clean, throwing for 1,191 yards and 16 touchdowns, the latter tying for third-most in the nation.
4. OHIO STATE: JUSTIN FIELDS
The nation’s third highest-graded passer on throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, Fields has been dominant as a downfield thrower this year in Columbus. He’s completing a ridiculously-high amount of passes on such attempts and has a national-best 15 big-time throws on 10+ yard attempts. He’s finding his receivers well enough downfield on such attempts (22.3 aDOT) that they haven’t needed to do too much with the ball after the catch and his 15 touchdown passes on downfield attempts ranks second in the country. This all goes without mentioning his incredible skill set with the ball in his hands on the ground. He’s run for 204 yards on just 26 designed carries and 360 yards total on the ground with eight touchdowns and 14 more first-down carries and 10 broken tackles in the process. He’s got the Buckeyes rolling and it’s been incredibly fun to watch.
3. ALABAMA: TUA TAGOVAILOA
Tua currently leads the nation with a ridiculous stat line of 23 touchdowns against no interceptions as he’s completing 76.4% of his passes for 11.6 yards per attempt. He’s leading the country in passer rating from a clean pocket (156.7) after he led the country a year ago in the same regard. Similarly, he led the nation in passer rating on throws without a play fake, much like he’s doing again this year, proving just how stable those metrics are from year to year. He leads the country with 20 touchdowns from a clean pocket and is third in total yards but has needed at least 12 fewer passes than those ahead of him in yards. When he’s on, he’s perhaps the best thrower of the football in the country and the November 9 matchup between LSU and Alabama will give us a quarterback dual we haven’t seen in some time.
2. OKLAHOMA: JALEN HURTS
Hurts has been turned into perhaps the nation’s most-feared deep passer, something that seemed more than unlikely during his time at Alabama. Head coach Lincoln Riley has unleashed a skill set in Hurts previously untapped and previously unseen. Hurts has the fifth-most yards on deep passes (533) but is by far averaging the most yards per attempt on such throws at 21.3. He’s currently in possession of a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage that ranks 16th in the country and he has yet to have a pass dropped in 2019. He’s firing on all cylinders and a big-time matchup between the Sooners and Texas Longhorns is likely the only thing standing between Hurts and an invitation to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
1. LSU: JOE BURROW
No quarterback has a higher overall or passing grade on passes targeted at least 10 yards downfield as Burrow has dominated the first six weeks of college football. On such throws, Burrow has completed 57-of-77 attempts for 1,285 yards and 16 touchdowns, all of which lead the country. He’s the nation’s most exciting downfield thrower to the intermediate range of the field and outside the numbers as he’s found his big receivers outside the numbers better than anyone else. Much like we saw from Tagovailoa in 2018, Burrow currently ranks in the top five in terms of passer rating from the following categories: under pressure (1st), kept clean (5th), with play-action (4th), without play-action (4th) and on deep passes (2nd). To boot, he’s the national leader in adjusted completion percentage (84.9%) among the 87 quarterbacks with at least 115 attempts.
Bama receiver Smith talks about Tua's passes:
Last player listed in this video is Tua - so at least one guy over at PFF reckons on Tua being NFL ready:
Damn, I am getting concerned now that we won a game. Happy with the win, but I fear with other teams being as bad, or worse than we are, we won't be in a position to get Tua. If that is the case, I don't know who we should consider because except for Tua, a lot of the QB this year looks like the QB class of 2018, and we see how they are doing (they suck). Hoping there is another Lamar Jackson in this year's draft.