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3rd and 9...run play Philbin strikes again.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finfansince72, Oct 12, 2014.

  1. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    This is the dumbest theory in sports. That if you weren't a coach in some capacity in the NFL or played in the NFL, you don't know what you're talking about.

    The stigma rings true in baseball too. Stupidest thing. I know people that didn't play above college level that can coach circles around pro guys, and will never get a chance because of the ego and that sort of thinking in baseball.

    Stop thinking just because these guys are in the NFL they are masterminds, because that couldn't be farther from the truth.
     
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  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    There's always some guy trying to look like the smartest guy in the room by saying stuff like this.
     
  3. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    I honestly feel like I could do Joe Philbin's job. I really mean that. What does he do? Looks at internal analytics and determines practice and training schedules? Okay. I can do that, and probably better than he does, because I have an actual degree and experience that are relevant to statistics and operations analysis. Make strategic decisions on gameday? I could do that, too. 4th and 3 on the opposing 42 yard line, do you go for it or punt the ball, that's the kind of decision Joe has to make on gameday. I can make that decision.

    Now, I couldn't do Bill Lazor's job, that's for damn sure.
     
  4. Eop05

    Eop05 Junior Member Club Member

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    I've watched professional coaches on many occassions hand the ball off when they could take a knee and run the clock out.
    I watched Rex Ryan, with a lead in the 4th quarter, run the ball on 1st down with 1:15 left on the clock because the opposing team had 1 timeout.

    Point being: These guys constantly make fundamental mistakes. CONSTANTLY. Philbin seems to do it more frequently than most. Coupled with an ultra-conservative philosophy, he's hamstringing this offense and it seems Lazor is recognizing it.
     
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  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Wow, talk about talk about reading into something, misquoting and not understanding the point or simply taking it too seriously. It was mostly in jest. I never said you had to have previously beeen an NFL coach or ex-player. LOL. ,,,but it's safe to say, probably more than an internet warrior.

    See, we are all just frustrated as hell at the way this season has unfolded to this point and understandably so. "Tanne sucks!!" "Philbin sucks!!" "The D sucks!!" "The OL sucks" ...and it's true, but it's probably more somewhere in the middle.

    I just think if any of us suddenly and miraculously became an NFL coach, we would see that it's not nearly as simple as it may seem to most fans. That's all. I also think a lot more of it comes down to talent, but whatever.

    A lot of people are venting a lot, in different ways. This is just mine.

    The responses to your comment crack me up. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

    I'll get back to you with some charts and graphs.
     
  6. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I'm not sure it should be called "scared" to come to the realization, perhaps, that your quarterback probably wasn't going to deal well with a pressure defense, because he clearly hadn't on the previous few plays. Why shouldn't that be called "recognizing the situation and adapting," and be lauded for its adaptability?

    Then when you couple that with the fact that a run play on 3rd and 9 is actually slightly more likely to be successful than a pass, it's a no-brainer. Remove the risk associated with your quarterback's recent play against a pressure defense, and increase the likelihood of success at the same time.

    And we're criticizing him for this?
     
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  7. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are absolutely right. It was a great call. Likely to get him another job immediately after he is FIRED here. Execs all over the league cannot wait to get their hands on Philbin to be their next HC. Never mind that people across the league and a prominent ex player and fans are killing him. Never mind that this is the cherry on top of previous "scared" decisions he has made in 2+ yrs in charge. ..Yep, great call to run on 3rd and 9 and give the ball back to Rodgers. Why dont all teams run on 3rd and long...much better than a pass. Can we just get to another sunday already. BTW, Tannehill had pressure on the previous play for sure...So Joe "adapting and recognizing the situation" meant to disregard most of the 2nd half when Ryan played well?
     
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  8. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    For the brief remainder of Joe's tenure here in Miami, he will be 'Coach Queasy.'
     
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  9. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly. He was neither conservative or aggressive, he was just.....in decisive and scared, basically just being Philbin... and we have seen what that gets us. I would have liked to see us stay aggressive and go for the first down but if the gameplan was to run the clock down and make GB use up the 2 min warning and their timeouts and get a good punt I could live with that. To throw on 2nd then not 3rd is just terrible coaching.
     
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  10. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I am queasy watching Philbin sabotage himself and the team because of fear.

    Thankfully, he only does it when it counts most.
     
  11. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am thats for sure. He wasn't adapting he just got scared and lost heart. I think thats about the worst thing you can do when the pressure is on.
     
  12. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I suspect that if he felt he had a quarterback who could've burned a pressure/blitzing defense with the pass, rather than being victimized by it, he would've dialed that up.
     
  13. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    The QB saved his bacon by avoiding a sack on 2nd down when Lazor called a play that involved receivers hugging each other in a group exercise in the middle of the field with two untouched blitzers in #17's face.

    Of course, you could argue that taking the sack is a better play there, but I wouldn't agree with that when the offense's instructions up to that point were "get first downs."
     
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    all true.
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Your second part is a good point.

    IMO, in the game of chess of offensive and defense, the defense made the right call on that play.

    It is like in Tecmo Bowl. The Packers picked the play.
     
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  16. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill was hot in the 2nd half and the Packers 2 starting corners were out, it was a pretty high percentage move to pass and try to get a first down IMO.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They dictated to us..shouldn't of been that way..if you look at the plays closely, moving the pocket was the right offensive calls to make, and if your going for " first downs, then either boot or read option was the obvious right call.
     
  18. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    A sweep might have worked as well, or a reverse or a screen to the right.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    absolutely, they blitzed with no regard for the edges, none whatsoever, jailbreak all the way, reverse triangle with Ryan as the target, it was almost as like they knew he wouldn't be moving, almost like they knew he was gonna drop strait back..hmmmm, I wonder why?, let's say film study maybe? There wasn't a rollout or a bootleg the whole freakin game...I just don't know what to say, I'm sure lazor is smart as hell but I seriously just don't understand why he didn't roll the kid out on the play, I rewatched it 10 times, if he calls the read option it's a guaranteed first down it was so wide open, if he calls a rollout it's over.
     
  20. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill just said in his media availability that he indeed threw the ball away because he was told they were going for the first down, and he wanted the first down. He said "3rd and 9 is better than 3rd and 19."

    This one's on Joe.
     
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  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Now I believe Joe made a bad decision.

    I do not like him as a coach.
     
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  22. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    You know what makes it worse? We wanted the first and RAN on third and 9? I'd rather have thrown on 3rd and 19 geeze.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Did you miss the whole queasy thing?

    So what happened evidently is before the game Philbin got together with his coordinators and they all agreed that against this quarterback they need to stay aggressive in situations where they might otherwise be tempted to run out the clock. So in those situations they need to go for the 1st downs rather than run the football knowing they'll give the ball back to the other side.

    Which is fine. Some like it one way, others like it the other way.

    So fast-forward to the 4th quarter and they're in exactly this situation. Everyone agreed they would stay aggressive and go for the 1st downs. Bill Lazor called plays on 1st & 2nd down with exactly that in mind. Tannehill threw the football away instead of taking a sack on 2nd & 9 with exactly that in mind, they're being aggressive and going for the 1st down.

    But then when they got to 3rd down, Joe Philbin got "queasy" (his word) because of the pressure that had gotten into the backfield on 2nd down, and decided to veto this strategy of going for the 1st down. He told Bill Lazor they need to run the ball on 3rd & 9 instead of going for the 1st down.

    So that's why they ran the ball on 3rd & 9. They did not expect it to result in a 1st down.
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    exactly, so Tannehill made the decision on 2nd down to do the best thing he could do to make sure he is in a position on third down to get a first down. That was a weird sentence.

    If the call was, "We will go for it on first and second, however depending on how successful those plays are, go for it on third down." Then Tannehill would have probably taken the sack or tried to use his feet more to see if he could make something happen. Because he thought the coach was all in for going for the first down, he did the best to put Miami in the position to get the first on the third down.

    Philbin did the equivalent of telling his father that he is going to finally go into the haunted house. Have his father drive 2 hours in bad traffic, only to have his dad wait with him outside because he was too scared at the last second, while the wife and his little more brave sister went to enjoy the haunted house, and his dad could have had fun if he got the babysister like he wanted to in the first place.

    or something like that.
     
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  25. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    The whole queasy thing, to me, completely explains the tenure of Joe Philbin. Joe is a Seinfeld fan, and he is clearly George Costanza. Like Ron Rivera, every instinct he's ever had is wrong, and he needs to do the opposite in order to save things.

    I honestly just wish I could sit down with Joe for two minutes -- just two minutes -- and put it to him in exactly those terms. Joe, when you get queasy, that's your body responding to an emotion, fear. When you become afraid, you can react by running from the problem, or you can fight back. Joe, your instinct is to run, and running away doesn't win football games. Ya gotta do the opposite.

    I don't think he'll ever get it, and that's ultimately what makes him unfit to be a head coach.
     
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  26. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I view that sequence as the equivalent of trying a suicide squeeze bunt in baseball. You might try it with zero strikes or one strike against the batter, but with two strikes, the risk of a foul ball out is too great, and so you call off the bunt.

    Ideally in football you'd like to gain a certain number of yards on first down, and a certain number on second down, so that your third down play isn't so low percentage. That didn't happen in this sequence, and I suspect it was because Ryan Tannehill didn't know what the hell to do with the pass rush. You can't then prop him back up against the same rush, on 3rd and 9, and expect him to be successful.
     
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    He did exactly what he should have done with the idea of going for it on 3rd and 9 with that play call.
     
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  28. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    How do we know he didn't miss a hot read?
     
  29. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Look at the all-22 of that 2nd down play. Heck, you can find it on Twitter if you're really curious. Ryan Tannehill's options on that play were bad, worse, and worst. He chose bad. Look at the routes the receivers were running.

    It's incredible to me that the coaches, receivers, and linemen all get a pass for failure on one isolated play, while the guy who was forced to drop back against two clean rushers and nowhere to throw the football is pilloried for it.

    It's all there on the game film. You just choose not to look at it, because it doesn't fit with your preconceived notions about a single player.
     
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  30. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/spor...-it-works-dolphins-um-staff-heat-chatter.html

     
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  31. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    How do you know that he didn't miss it or the call didn't allow him to go for his hot read.
     
  32. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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  33. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I don't. That's why I asked, how do we know?

    In other words, Joe Philbin could've been incorporating a great deal more information into his decision than we are currently.
     
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  34. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Looking at the play on the link above, he did not miss anything. It was perfectly defensed and JuJawn James totally missed his block.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The queasy thing actually surprises me a little bit. In other times, Joe Philbin is a little more guilty of creating misguided rules that he abides by regardless of circumstance. For example, the kodaking thing. He's one of those guys that has decided that all that matters is what we do and making sure we have our ducks in a row, and he doesn't care if his timeouts also help the other side. He's made a rule and he abides by it regardless of circumstance...and because of that I think he got burned on 4th & 10. Another example would be this thing earlier in the year where he refused to name Tannehill the starter. Supposedly he's got a hard rule that he never names anyone the starter (hasn't always abided that rule), and never imagined that would end up controversial for any reason (dumb).

    Here he created a rule and then he didn't abide by it because he got nervous. His issue is usually the other way. But this sort of thing often happens and the underlying factor behind it all is an inability to relate current circumstances to an appropriate action...the inability to think on his feet, so to speak. Probably why he never called plays.
     
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  36. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Here's the situation as the QB is finishing his drop, yeah?

    [​IMG]

    Two clean rushers with a full head of steam and free runs on the quarterback. He's got two receivers about to collide with each other in traffic, another guy heading into a traffic jam, one guy going vertical in tight coverage, and one guy whose head isn't even turned around for the football and has a defender closing in his direction.

    Result: throwaway.

    Could he have done better there? I'm sure CK, or another poster more knowledgeable about quarterback play than me could chime in here, but I don't see this as a play in which the quarterback was a huge, glaring deficiency that hurt the offense. I don't really see the win option here, to be honest with you.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Those two receivers "colliding" with each other, are running a crossing pattern.
     
  38. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Right, I get that, which is why I asked for an opinion from one of the board gurus. I'm not an expert, so when I see that play I just see that the quarterback has to throw the ball over the heads of four defensive linemen into tight traffic, if he's going to throw it at that moment. That seems like a horrible decision?
     
  39. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    Peyton Manning looks at that single coverage on Wallace up high and throws it to where he'll be when he makes his break, with the trajectory to allow for the time in between. Tannehill has neither the ability to recognize the single coverage, based on where the other 10 defenders are on the play, nor the ability to throw a pass with that trajectory taken into account.

    That's "burn a blitz with a touchdown pass 101," but Tannehill isn't good enough to pull that off.
     
  40. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Wallace doesn't make his break until the play is long over because of the pressure. There was no hot read to Wallace there. Watch the dang animation.
     

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