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A few facts about the 09 Offensive performance

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by padre31, May 23, 2010.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    As an adjunct to the "we would have won this year without Brandon Marshall" thread, consider these facts:

    #5 in red zone scoring attempts per game:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scores-per-game


    #1 in the NFL in third down conversion percentage:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

    #4 in the NFL in 4th down conversions:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

    #5 in red zone scores per game:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scores-per-game

    #2 in Red Zone scoring percentage:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

    #14 in sacks allowed perecntage, a high number but a +5 increase over 2008:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-pct

    #2 in Rushing TD's per game:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-touchdowns-per-game

    #1 in rushing first downs per game:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-downs-per-game


    It goes on and on, this is without Brandon Marshall and with Ted Ginn producing 450 yds, now toss BMarsh into that mix and hopefully people can see why I'm stoked for this upcoming season.
     
  2. Starry31

    Starry31 Phins and Heels.

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    Marshall and a healthy Ronnie Brown is something to be really excited about. And all our guys who seemed to just keep converting third downs (Cam/Bess/Hartline/Louuuuuusaka!) are still here. Just have to hope Starks plays his new position well and the youngsters on defense play good enough, as well as making sure FS play improves from last year. I also thought we would have won in 2010 without an elite receiver, now that we have one what's not to be excited about? If we avoid major injuries and Henne keeps coming along I don't see how our offense doesn't play really well, it's just the defense you hope Nolan, Dansby, and company can turn around.
     
  3. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Last in scaring people, last in quick strikes, impact big plays....Miami's offense while consistent didnt scare anybody, everything seemed to take too long, and was drawn out.....Only bad things happen when you are always on the field for double digit play drives...hopefully that changes....
     
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  4. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    While I see your point I don't completely agree with it. If our defense was able hold up it's end of the bargain then those long drives are awesome to watch.
     
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  5. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Many here, including myself believe that the main scheme will still be run first, with the TOP advantage...

    The only difference will be, as many here think, big play capability (which means strike/scoring)...

    We hope to be off the bottom of that ranking, and we will know 4 games into the season...
     
  6. Phinatic425

    Phinatic425 MIA State of Mind

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    Those are amazing numbers...Can't wait for our #1 scoring offense next year with Henne accumulating 300+ yards per game.
     
  7. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    OT: One can only hope the defense 180s from last year, and there's a thread about it like this one.
     
  8. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Stats, schmats...While it is comforting to know our offense is no longer helpless. 7-9 was the bottom line. Tony needs to coach his a$# off this year to keep his job, and there's a ton of questionmarks on defense. There's definitely a whole new level of urgency this year.
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Imho you are looking at that scenario in the wrong light FY, those long drives eat the clock and place the other team on the defensive, that means our young defense won't be constantly exposed to the other team's explosive players.

    The average age on defense is probably around 25 yrs old with only YBell over 30y rs old among the starters, and of the remaining starters, only Crowder and Dansby have more than 2 seasons of starting experience.

    Some Maxim's from FO:

    Which is "why" I've been banging the "we need a great returner to replace Ted Ginn" drum, they make life easier for the offense.

    Which is a part of the reason why I do not buy into "we need a great Wr to take advantage of the new pass interference rules", it does not equate directly to winning.

    http://footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics

    Anywho, somewhere in Football Outsiders huge database is the statistical fact that more rookies starting on a defense equates to more losses, especially at Cb (iirc) it was something on the order of "for every 2 rookies that start on a defense 1 additional loss will be produced".

    If Football Outsiders is right and defense is a inconsistent proposition, this is the year that Mike Nolan catches an uplift from our mid 20's ranked D, and the Offense improves..that would lead to big things this season..:up:
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Now here is Football Outsiders view on a running offense:

    And my one football maxim for the offseason is based on this:

    A team has to do all three well, now typically what happens is younger, rebuilding teams have great special teams units as desire/speed/don't wanna get released equals players willing to fly down field at personal risk or maybe return a kick when they should call for a fair catch.

    "But" a good team that can do those things on Specials has an edge on every opponent they play, the third leg of the stool so to speak.
     
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  11. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    That's some really good stuff Pad's!
     
  12. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    I am all for controlling the clock, wearing the other teams defense out, I love that game....but you need to at least be able to put fear in the DC's mind that this offense could at any moment go the distance on any play...u ask why?? human error, people panic when the unknown can and could be coming.....it is like Elsbury on the Red Sox, the guy is lighting quick, causes routine balls hit to the infielders to be errors, guys rush and make mistakes......that wasnt the case last year, and other teams knew it....

    I can only harp back to last year's Indy game, did u see the look on the face's of Indy's defense in the 4th quarter, they were beaten.....Miami would construct these life sucking marvelous drives on offense, moving the chains, moving the clock, scoring.......then........Manning would score in like 3 plays......:angry:
     
  13. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    The Indy game IMO doesn't help you case. we held the ball for over 3/4 of the game and scored 23 points. All the defense needed to do was stop them once and its a win, stop them 2 or more times and its a blowout.
     
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  14. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Gotcha and agreed, but they didnt....again I love to pound the ball, and controling the clock, the game is always won at the LOS....however you need to able to score a TD in 3-5 plays sometimes....something they couldnt do last year......I think that changes this year...I think Miami in some games could go up 14-0 quick....long drive for a TD, stop in defense, take a shot downfield, or something breaks up underneath...
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Hartline showed that ability, oddly enough BMarsh isn't a burner, he will make his bones on man to man coverage and breaking tackles.

    Everyone speaks of two things about that game:

    Crappy Defense
    Ted Ginn's drop

    No one mentions that Dan Carpenter missed a easy FG, if he had made that one, we were in position to kick the game winner.

    It all works together FY.
     
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  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    right it does Pads, and this year it will.....for the record, I am not a guy on here that BM is busting fade routes, I know he isnt a burner....Hartline as you said can be that guy, he possessess the perfect speed to get open, cuz his routes are so crisp u know??

    For once I would LOVE to see a hurry up that goes right down the field to open a game, stick 7 on the board, play stout defense, then start chewing clock up like a ginzo eats sausage....:up:
     
  17. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    Sounds like you and I are on the same page or at least closer to it. Marshall gives us that as does Hartline. Not to mention having a running game other teams fear. That will force a lot of 1 on 1's.

    If folks stay healthy I dare teams to stack 8-9 in the box and if they don't, well I look for our running game to have many more long gains.
     
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  18. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Miami will have the one of the best running games in the league hands down....the Jets I think downgraded going from TJ, to LT......now can u imagine being able to control how you want to run your offense, you can pound the rock, or you can throw it too (especially now the rules allow for a more passer friendly game).....I think this offense could be the heat this year...
     
  19. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    I have been bouncing back from here to Jetsnation.com and believe it or not they have epople over there that wanted to Bench Thomas Jones. 1,400 plus yards and a very solid 4.6 ypc just wasn't enough for them. I'm baffled by that man I simply don't get it.
     
  20. LandShark13

    LandShark13 New Member

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    Especially if Hartline can take the next step. 2 Legit Outside threats with Bess and Cam in the slot, with R&R running the rock. That's not to shabby. Now if Fesano can return to his 2008 form. Then hell's ya bro its going to be a fun season to be a Fan!
     
  21. FinFan316

    FinFan316 Banned

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    only stat that matters...did you win?
     
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  22. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    ^^^ Amen!

    And the real key is using your players properly, all of them!

    We talk of Ronnie being healthy yet I've only seen him used properly one year and even then he wasn't used right in the begining, in 2007 under Cam. Lord knows though when he was let loose he was headed to the pro bowl til he got hurt and how he was used isn't the reason he was hurt either! And for the record, no, this FO/HC hasn't used him right either for all of his WC glory!
     
  23. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    I mean the OL determines alot about the overall running game of that team, but LT is a wuss, and will get crushed in the AFC EAST going between the tackles....TJ had the body, and the makeup, LT doesnt....
     
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  24. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    While I completely agree that we need more quick strike plays, your last statement is crazy. If you are on the field for multiple long drives AND you have a defense that can make stops consistently, then you will scare people. Unfortunately, until proven otherwise, our defense lets us down.
     
  25. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Really? A whole other separate "we didn't really need Brandon Marshall" thread? Ok.

    Here's are 3 more facts:

    7-9

    Our team wasn't good enough in 2009.

    Brandon Marshall makes us better.
     
  26. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Most of those stats don't have a high correlation with winning. Here's a correlation analysis from 2009:


    Offense
    Points scored .88
    Team passer rating .81
    Total yards gained per play .81
    Yards gained per pass play .80
    Total yards gained .77
    1st downs .70
    Turnover ratio .69
    Pass yards gained .68
    3rd down conversion % .64
    QB hits allowed (.53)
    Sacks allowed (.53)
    Time of possession .46
    4th down conversion % .25*
    Pass attempts .14*
    Run attempts .12*
    Yards gained per rush play .09*
    Offensive penalty yards .04*
    Run yards gained .04*
    Pass/run ratio .02*
    Defense
    Points allowed (.68)
    Run yards allowed (.58)
    Passing yards allowed per pass play (.57)
    Total yards allowed (.56)
    Total yards allowed per play (.54)
    Opponent's passer rating (.47)
    1st downs allowed (.45)
    Sacks made .41
    Run yards allowed per play (.33)
    4th down conversions allowed (.30)
    Passing yards allowed (.24)
    3rd down conversion % allowed (.23)*
    Defensive penalty yards .14*
    Special Teams
    Average kickoff (kicking team) .32
    Average net punt yards (kicking team) .27*
    Average kickoff return yards allowed .15*
    Total penalty yards committed .11*
    Average kickoff return yards gained .05*
    Field goal % .03*

    http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2010/01/2009-nfl-regular-season-wins-and-stats.html

    I highlighted the the stats that had a correlation % of 70% or better. I also highlighted turnover ratio and points allowed per game b/c those two stats are usually at 70%. In fact T/O ratio and points allowed are usually more correlated than 1st downs and total yards. Most of the other stats listed in this thread are not particularly predictive when it comes to winning.

    Unfortunately, in those categories the Dolphins were out of the top 12 (12 teams make the playoffs) in all but one of those stats. To have a realistic chance to make it to the playoffs and have a chance to make the SB the Dolphins have to improve in those categories. Fortunately, the addition of Marshall and the development of Henne (and the other WRs) should unquestionably have a positive impact 6 of the 8 (points per game, passer rating, yards per play, yards per pass attempt, total yards gained and first downs per game). And IMO those two factors above will also impact the other two stats (turnover ratio and points allowed) as Henne's and the WRs development and Marshall's ability to win jump balls will help the TO ratio and more offensive TDs should put more pressure on the opponents offense and less on our defense.


    Points per game = 14th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

    Team passer rating = 24th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-team-passer-rating

    Total yards gained per play = 22nd

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play

    Yards per pass attempt = 23rd

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-pass-attempt

    Yards per game = 17th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game

    First downs per game = 8th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/first-downs-per-game

    Turnover ratio= 25th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/turnover-margin-per-game

    Points allowed = 25th

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game
     
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  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Honestly I think Miami needed an improved Henne and a defense that didn't allow a bunch of big plays and they would have been a playoff team last season.
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As a corollary to my post above here are how many teams among the top 12 in each of those categories made the playoffs last year. And how many teams below our ranking made the playoffs.

    Points per game = 14th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 3 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

    Team passer rating = 24th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 1 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...-passer-rating

    Total yards gained per play = 22nd (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 1 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play

    Yards per pass attempt = 23rd (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...r-pass-attempt

    Yards per game = 17th (10 out of top 12 in playoffs, 2 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-game

    First downs per game = 8th (7 out of top 12 in playoffs, 5 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...downs-per-game

    Turnover ratio= 25th (9 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...argin-per-game

    Points allowed = 25th (8 out of top 12 in playoffs, 0 ranked below us made the playoffs)

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat...oints-per-game

    Other than first downs per game, which is a stat that I don't believe is as highly correlated most years, being among the top 12 in the other categories meant at least a 66% chance of making in the playoffs and most often a 75% chance of making the playoffs. There were 4 playoff teams that were top 12 in all eight categories (Ind, S.D., N.E., Minn.) Cincinnati was the only playoff team to not be among the 12 in at least 2 categories (only points allowed). The NYJ were only among the top 12 in two categories (points allowed and T/O ratio). Baltimore was among the top 12 in only 3 categories (points per game, T/O ratio and points allowed). Every other playoff team was among the top 12 in at least 6 of the 8 categories. There was no single category (among the 8 listed above) that every playoff team was top 12 in. There were three teams that were consistently among the top 12 in the above categories that did not make the playoffs (Pitt, Hou and NYG). All three of those teams had a negative T/O ratio and were out of the top 12 in T/O ratio. It seems to me, not just based on last year but over many years of observation, that having a negative T/O ratio can prevent otherwise very effective teams from making the playoffs (bold statement, I know, LOL). Also we shouldn't forget the luck factor. My completely WAG (wild-*** guess) is that luck is about 20%-25% of the game. Bounces of an oblong ball, injuries and referee calls probably account for most of that, with slips, trips and drops accounting for most of the rest.

    My feeling is that if you want to be a realistic SB threat you need to be pretty good in most of the categories above, not have a negative T/O ratio and have a bit of luck.
     
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