I am not sure STL can afford to take Luck, as the cap hit from trading/cutting Bradford would be just massive. They might look to trade.

Indy as well is a possibility to trade down, if their goal is to simply see if they can squeeze out another SB appearance in the year or two Peyton has left.

Outside of that, I assume any team that lands at #1 will take Luck.

 

Pod you can't forget about the Bronco's..Elway..Luck..stanford..No current future on roster.

I'am seriously looking at the dynamics from an organizational POV, and it does make sense to try and figure out an ethical way to SFL if we lose to the Jets, however, you can only send word down from the office to the coach to experiment and play all younger player if you have a coach that is not in trouble.

 

I'd give up a first next year. I have no issues with that at all.

 

IMO the Panthers, Rams, Jags and Cards would trade away the pick based on their belief in their current QB. As for the rest, I think that the Vikes are bad and play in a tough division and are our top competition. I think CK's speculation that Manning could come back before the end of the season and scuttle Indy's chances at Luck is very likely. And even if he doesn't, their division is weak enough that they could pull a few wins out. The Browns are playing well enough that I think they'll be out of the race. I also think Cassell will play well enough to take KC out of the race. I also expect that Seattle can get a few wins just from that long flight out to the NW and their weak division. That leaves Denver and Minny as the top competitors and Denver does have a one win lead. I think the Minny game this week is big in that race.

 

why vikes winning?

 

Way too early to look at that. Our third place schedule teams, Houston and Cleveland look a little better, and the NFC East is likely to have all 4 teams above 7 wins.

 

"Jettison hope"? Padre, we're 0-4. There is no hope to jettison.

 

Oh I understand the rules Pad. But it's just not possible to really quantify it yet. Right now Minny has two undefeated teams in its division and we have two 3-1 teams. If Detroit or Buffallo craps out it could really change the equations.

So in theory we would like buff to fall apart but still beat us.

 

Hey, could you imagine the hype surrounding a coin toss for the #1 pick between the fins and Indianapolis or whoever. The NFL Network would televise it and it would get absolutely huge ratings.

You'd have analysis of the coint, the guy doing the flipping, wind conditions in the building that might affect the toss, etc.

It would be fantastic television.

 

Tie Break Procedures

 

Minny I think is in a similar situation to us - floundering at QB, struggling OL, struggling defense, playing in a division with 3 good to great teams. The only ways they win is if either Peterson catches fire or Ponder comes in and provides a spark combined with the defense stepping it up for a few games. They already lost to KC, and have 'Zona now. If they lose both of them, that would show just how bad they are.

 

We could use Jax and the Colts to cancel each other out a little, split their series, get a win against Tennessee, etc.

 

Hope so, that team is playing decent and FINDING ways to lose. At this point I'm counting on Peyton forcing his way back in for the last several games and pulling out a couple wins to avoid getting Rodgers'd.

 

Here's how I have it:

1. Dolphins 0-4
2. Colts 0-5
3. Broncos 1-4
4. Seahawks 2-3
5. Browns 2-2
6. Chiefs 2-3

Forget about the Rams. They're not taking a QB in the entire draft, much less one with the #1 pick. Not happening. The Jags and Vikes just drafted a QB in the first round, so they're out. Also, forget about Arizona. Kolb may be struggling, but they're not gonna give up on him after 1 year. No GM would admit a mistake like that, that quickly.

I honestly thought the Seahawks would battle us for the top spot, but it looks like they'll screw around and get 5 or 6 wins in that crappy division. I also think Tebow will spark the Broncos into a few more wins. I've also made clear my opinion that Peyton will be back this year and the Colts will win a few.

Maybe that's an optimists view, but we're looking good.

 

Why would they be out? They didn't have to make a serious financial commitment to either Ponder or Gabbert. If they like Luck better than what they got this year, they can go ahead and draft him and still have less money invested in the QB position than the Rams do with just Bradford.

 

Even you might be on the train by then Pad.

And I suspect that NE and Buffalo could be coming down to the wire so there is a reasonably good chance that we see starters playing at full throttle in both games.

 

I understand, but it's fun to speculate. Gives a painful season a little juice.

 

Because as I explained with AZ, a GM isn't going to do that. When's the last time a team drafted a QB in the 1st round two years in a row? I think fans are placing a higher value on Luck than GM's are, just slightly. This isn't fantasy football.

EDIT: Even though they wouldn't be financially committed to one of those guys, it still doesn't make sense to draft a QB in the 1st two years in a row. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just can't see it happening.

 

I put us ahead of Indy for the simple fact that the Colts have Peyton Manning. I still can't see them taking Luck and letting him rot if Manning is healthy, ESPECIALLY if he plays this year.

 

When was the last time you actually could draft two elite quarterbacks in a row and pay them less than you would have to pay a good free agent at, say, RB? You really can't argue precedent when there's a completely new situation; namely a quarterback driven league in which the top young signal callers just got mindboggingly cheap. I am not going to argue that either team will draft Luck if they get the chance. But I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility either. We can't really tell what a GM would do in that situation because no GM has ever been put into that situation.

 

Honestly, what worries me more than anything isn't a team like the Colts drafting Luck, it's a team like the Colts getting the pick and someone (Seattle, Denver) moving up to it. I wouldn't put it past Elway to give up that King's Ransom. So yeah, having the worst record is the only way to be certain.

 

It's been a while. 70's or 80's probably, before the USFL days. It would just be EXTREMELY hard for a team like JAX, STL or MIN justifying a pick like that to their fanbase when they just drafted a guy with their top pick a year or two prior. Especially in St. Louis' case, where Bradford clearly isn't the problem with that team.

 

Exactly.

I could easily see Jacksonville and Minny pull a Jimmy Clausen. It's going to take a bit more explanation, but then again, you're talking Andrew Luck, not Cam Newton (and look how Newton has worked out for Carolina and their fan base so far).

St. Louis I don't see either. Not because Sam Bradford has been playing great so far - I think's he's been vastly overrated, to tell you the truth - but because his contract pretty much makes him the de facto starter anyway. With Gabbert/Ponder and Luck, you can actually trade one of them, no sweat. Bradford is literally untradeable.

 

While I think those etams would take Luck, they have to be prepared to get pennies on the dollar for Gabbert/Ponder. I mean Jax traded up to grab Gabbert and they likely would have to take a 3rd round pick for him if they wanted to take Luck. Ends up being a terrible use of resources.