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Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Oct 27, 2015.

  1. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2015/week-7-quick-reads

    Even Tannehill's touchdowns were all short passes. Tannehill's four scores were thrown to receivers an average of 5.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, and those receivers then gained an average 36.0 yards after the catch. And that latter number is actually skewed low by a red zone touchdown with 8 yards after the catch. His other three scores all came after at least 36 yards after the catch.

    All in all, Tannehill's average pass on Sunday traveled only 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage, and his average completion came just 3.1 yards downfield, both the lowest of any quarterback this week. On the other hand, his average completion produced 12.6 YAC, the highest of any quarterback this week, by more than 4 yards over any other starter.
     
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  2. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    So we put the ball in the air for the shortest amount of distance, yet gain the most distance by the time is over, and this is a bad thing? Minimize risk and maximize gain. Keep doing every week until they stop it; point blank.

    What's wrong with getting the ball into the hands of your playmakers early and let them do the damage? Isn't that how many offenses would like to operate?
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, that's just pointing out that our receivers made big plays. That's not a knock on the QB...it just means that his job was made easy by good teammates.
     
  4. Linus

    Linus Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Are they poo-pooing Brady for getting his stats off illegal pick plays for the past 10 years?
     
  5. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    They didn't win the *right* way to get Tanne's DYAR up.
     
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  6. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    So far Lazor (IIRC) has said that the game plan was to minimize the effectiveness of the Houston pass rush by getting the ball out early. This was by design. Sometimes you have to contextualize these things. Getting the ball out quickly and with good placement is a skill and if that's all you're asked to do, then do your job. I won't call this an all-world performance, but this was an actual perfect example of execution.
     
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  7. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    There is probably a consistency factor that is under-represented in their modeling, considering he didn't throw his first incomplete pass until the 19th attempt of the day when he threw a catchable ball at Dion Sims who didn't go up for it well. I mean he set an NFL record for number of consecutive pass completions.

    Otherwise yes it should be taken as a given that passes traveling less distance are easier to complete. If they're under-rating important factors like ball placement, timing and decision-making then that's one thing. But if those are accounted for then yeah I'd expect Tannehill's high resolution metrics for the game to be positive but not nearly reflective of the perfect passer rating he achieved.
     
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  8. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Moderator Staff Member Club Member

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    If that's what it takes to put up 35 points on offense every week (not counting Jone's pick-6), I'll take it. You're probably not going to lose too many games when you're scoring the way Miami has the past two weeks.
     
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  9. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I doubt that we get 4 50 yd TDs in any other game this year, the point of this article is sustainability, counting on 50 yd catch and runs for your scoring isn't sustainable.
     
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  10. Mrtree

    Mrtree Juan Huron's agent Club Member

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    It's a tactic that has been used by some other mediocre qbs a la Joe Montana and Tom Brady.
     
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  11. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Not the same, they do commercials. Every single day...every single day...every single day...the cheatriots dynasty gets a liiiiitle bit older and that window shrinks just a bit more lol. Can't wait for Garapapoop to take over.
     
  12. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    If this post was a woman, I would want to make love to her.
     
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  13. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member


    Ill take 10 more games with him playing like last Sunday please...this is where I think this kinda stuff gets over thought...lol.
     
  14. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Meh. Even Tannehill said after the game he didn't do much. That was obviously modesty kicking in but that offense is all about getting the ball in the hands of your playmakers. In the last two games our playmakers have done just that, made plays.
    Don't see how you can ding him for that.

    Really though, Brady feasts on those short yardage throws as well.
     
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  15. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic 30 years and counting Club Member

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    Most of Brady's passes are within 5 yards as well, but because they are so good at it and the WR's get YAC, that offense gets praised.
    I always think back to how many times I watched Jerry Rice take a 5 yard pass and end up with a TD out of it.
     
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  16. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Sunday was a make up for all the games in which he got 0 YAC. I'm looking at you Brian Hartline.

    We attempted maybe two long passes that I can remember, but why would you bother?
     
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  17. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Of course not. And why ding him? He can and does make all the throws.
     
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  18. LiferYank

    LiferYank New Member

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    Whats the issue?
     
  19. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Or it was possibly made easier by the Texans just sucking. Probably more likely a little bit of both.

    We'll find out more over the next 3 weeks if our offense has taken giant strides or if we benefited from playing poor defenses.
     
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  20. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    LBer writes for football outsiders? Now its making sense.
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The article is also not factoring in that the gameplan was short quick passes, to eliminate the pass rush. Sure, 50 yard catch and runs for tds may not be sustainable, but short, quick passing has been a staple of the NE offense for more than a decade.
     
  22. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Agreed... and not coincidentally, the Pats lead the league in Offensive Pass Interference calls this season, getting flagged at a rate of over 1 per game. The majority of other teams will not have an entire season total of OPI calls that the Pats had through 5 games. Most come off plays where Edelman picks the defender attempting to free up Amendola on the sideline, though Gronk likes to push off as well, then go into comic theater straight from the WWF when flagged.
     
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  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    It isn't a bad thing per se, but air yards are a lot more predictive of future success than YAC.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
     
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  24. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    well **** this proves Tannehill sucks, guess we better draft goff.
     
  25. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    "tannehill doesn't throw passes to allow YAC"
    "tannehill got too much YAC"

    lols.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yep. He simply can't win with some fans.
     
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  27. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm the OP and I love Tanny. I'm just sharing an article.
     
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  28. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    There isn't one negative comment in this thread about Tanne, so what is the point of this comment?

    Just trying to stir up trouble?
     
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  29. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I would say that this week we won't get 2 catches that have 45 yards after the catch on each of them for TD's. The Patriots will play us not to be able to stretch the field, we will see how Tannehill handles it.
     
  30. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    It's a great test for this reinvigorated team.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I think this gameplan was a thing of beauty, and I'd have loved it even without the huge YAC gains. Work with our strengths, minimize our weakness, and execute.
     
  32. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That was a major complaint of mine for years. All QBs benefit from YAC but Tannehill during his first three seasons benefited less than most. Personally I find air yards to be a pretty useless statistic. QBs like Brady routinely throw short passes and he's been pretty successful for a pretty long time.
     
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  33. seekerone

    seekerone Member

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    Proposed game plan.... One thing is for sure, we'll have problems if we come with the same exact game plan. I mean the start fast thing is right, but it must be done with nuanced differences. The Patriots are reviewing all that we've done. They are smart and will have an answer for most of the great plays we've had. We need to maintain the energy, but add surprises. 10 - 15 offensive new plays, or slight variations of prior plays should be enough to start the game and add enough confusion in the first half. Heck someone previously mentioned in another thread and I might agree... throw in one or two wildcat plays just for fun (no more than 2 per quarter). Then Campbell tells the team at halftime... "OK boys. Fr8tkin HIT IT!. Just like the last 2 weeks! Go out there blazing right now and take this game over!" Dolphins come out drooling for blood after half.
     
  34. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah he really sucked.
    Sure hope he plays better Thursday night.
     
  35. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    If anyone is starting anything, it's you. Picking someones post out of a thread (like this) and attacking it and attempting to egg out a response is textbook baiting, Not the other way around. My post was a generalization of the mass influx of comments about Tanny not throwing YAC-able passes that we seem to get in every single thread about him. Res just responded to what I had said, and perfectly within context. No one needed to say anything in this specific thread for our comments to be valid, Nor did we attack a specific poster. Please.
     
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  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Air yards aren't precisely "useless", but they certainly are a dubious statistic. The statistic often does not tell you what you think it's supposed to tell you.
     
  37. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Somehow I dont think any of us will mind more games like last Sunday where PFF ranks him 7th best of the week.
     
  38. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    But see, we know that's not the case. We know good teams will take our short passing game away.

    I loved every second of the thrashings we doled out in the last two weeks, but let's be a bit practical about "who" we thrashed and the implications moving forward.

    It's imperative that the running game remain strong for offensive consistency.
     
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  39. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Exactly. Just like 8-10 play drives EVERY drive are not. We need the big play eventually as a momentum changer and a back breaker.
     
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  40. DOLPHAN1

    DOLPHAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

    Joe Montana say hi!
     
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